arXiv subjects

Mouad El Bouchattaoui

Publications and source records attributed to Mouad El Bouchattaoui.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Topological Residual Asymmetry for Bivariate Causal Direction

Inferring causal direction from purely observational bivariate data is fragile: many methods commit to a direction even in ambiguous or near non-identifiable regimes. We propose Topological Residual Asymmetry (TRA), a geometry-based criterion for additive-noise models. TRA compares the shapes of two cross-fitted regressor-residual clouds after rank-based copula standardization: in the correct direction, residuals are approximately independent, producing a two-dimensional bulk, while in the reverse direction -- especially under low noise -- the cloud concentrates near a one-dimensional tube. We quantify this bulk-tube contrast using a 0D persistent-homology functional, computed efficiently from Euclidean MST edge-length profiles. We prove consistency in a triangular-array small-noise regime, extend the method to fixed noise via a binned variant (TRA-s), and introduce TRA-C, a confounding-aware abstention rule calibrated by a Gaussian-copula plug-in bootstrap. Extensive experiments across many challenging synthetic and real-data scenarios demonstrate the method's superiority.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder for Counterfactual Regression in Longitudinal Data

Accurately estimating treatment effects over time is crucial in fields such as precision medicine, epidemiology, economics, and marketing. Many current methods for estimating treatment effects over time assume that all confounders are observed or attempt to infer unobserved ones. In contrast, our approach focuses on unobserved adjustment variables, which specifically have a causal effect on the outcome sequence. Under the assumption of unconfoundedness, we address estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in response to treatment due to these unobserved adjustment variables. Our proposed Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE) is grounded in theoretical guarantees concerning the validity of latent adjustment variables and generalization bounds on CATE estimation error. Extensive evaluations on synthetic and real-world datasets show that CDVAE outperforms existing baselines. Moreover, we demonstrate that state-of-the-art models significantly improve their CATE estimates when augmented with the latent substitutes learned by CDVAE, approaching oracle-level performance without direct access to the true adjustment variables.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Causal Contrastive Learning for Counterfactual Regression Over Time

Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing long-term predictions. Distinguishing itself from existing models like Causal Transformer, our approach highlights the efficacy of employing RNNs for long-term forecasting, complemented by Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) and Information Maximization (InfoMax). Emphasizing efficiency, we avoid the need for computationally expensive transformers. Leveraging CPC, our method captures long-term dependencies in the presence of time-varying confounders. Notably, recent models have disregarded the importance of invertible representation, compromising identification assumptions. To remedy this, we employ the InfoMax principle, maximizing a lower bound of mutual information between sequence data and its representation. Our method achieves state-of-the-art counterfactual estimation results using both synthetic and real-world data, marking the pioneering incorporation of Contrastive Predictive Encoding in causal inference.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Meta-Learning and representation learner: A short theoretical note

Meta-learning, or "learning to learn," is a subfield of machine learning where the goal is to develop models and algorithms that can learn from various tasks and improve their learning process over time. Unlike traditional machine learning methods focusing on learning a specific task, meta-learning aims to leverage experience from previous tasks to enhance future learning. This approach is particularly beneficial in scenarios where the available data for a new task is limited, but there exists abundant data from related tasks. By extracting and utilizing the underlying structure and patterns across these tasks, meta-learning algorithms can achieve faster convergence and better performance with fewer data. The following notes are mainly inspired from \cite{vanschoren2018meta}, \cite{baxter2019learning}, and \cite{maurer2005algorithmic}.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Random Walk in Random Environment: A short introduction

This is a report of a scientific project carried out at Ecole Centrale Casablanca in 2019. This work is an entry into the world of Random Walk in a Random Environment (RWRE). We will discuss some intuitive concepts such as recurrence, location, and random potential. We will thereafter focus on providing an "electrical" understanding of this type of walk and finally explore an application of RWRE to graphene conduction.

math.PR↗