Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Mykel Kochenderfer

Publications and source records attributed to Mykel Kochenderfer.

53 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Learning Near Optimal Policies with Low Inherent Bellman Error

We study the exploration problem with approximate linear action-value functions in episodic reinforcement learning under the notion of low inherent Bellman error, a condition normally employed to show convergence of approximate value iteration. First we relate this condition to other common frameworks and show that it is strictly more general than the low rank (or linear) MDP assumption of prior work. Second we provide an algorithm with a high probability regret bound $\widetilde O(\sum_{t=1}^H d_t \sqrt{K} + \sum_{t=1}^H \sqrt{d_t} \IBE K)$ where $H$ is the horizon, $K$ is the number of episodes, $\IBE$ is the value if the inherent Bellman error and $d_t$ is the feature dimension at timestep $t$. In addition, we show that the result is unimprovable beyond constants and logs by showing a matching lower bound. This has two important consequences: 1) it shows that exploration is possible using only \emph{batch assumptions} with an algorithm that achieves the optimal statistical rate for the setting we consider, which is more general than prior work on low-rank MDPs 2) the lack of closedness (measured by the inherent Bellman error) is only amplified by $\sqrt{d_t}$ despite working in the online setting. Finally, the algorithm reduces to the celebrated \textsc{LinUCB} when $H=1$ but with a different choice of the exploration parameter that allows handling misspecified contextual linear bandits. While computational tractability questions remain open for the MDP setting, this enriches the class of MDPs with a linear representation for the action-value function where statistically efficient reinforcement learning is possible.

cs.LG↗

Online Parameter Estimation for Human Driver Behavior Prediction

Driver models are invaluable for planning in autonomous vehicles as well as validating their safety in simulation. Highly parameterized black-box driver models are very expressive, and can capture nuanced behavior. However, they usually lack interpretability and sometimes exhibit unrealistic-even dangerous-behavior. Rule-based models are interpretable, and can be designed to guarantee "safe" behavior, but are less expressive due to their low number of parameters. In this article, we show that online parameter estimation applied to the Intelligent Driver Model captures nuanced individual driving behavior while providing collision free trajectories. We solve the online parameter estimation problem using particle filtering, and benchmark performance against rule-based and black-box driver models on two real world driving data sets. We evaluate the closeness of our driver model to ground truth data demonstration and also assess the safety of the resulting emergent driving behavior.

cs.AI↗

On Algorithmic Decision Procedures in Emergency Response Systems in Smart and Connected Communities

Emergency Response Management (ERM) is a critical problem faced by communities across the globe. Despite this, it is common for ERM systems to follow myopic decision policies in the real world. Principled approaches to aid ERM decision-making under uncertainty have been explored but have failed to be accepted into real systems. We identify a key issue impeding their adoption --- algorithmic approaches to emergency response focus on reactive, post-incident dispatching actions, i.e. optimally dispatching a responder \textit{after} incidents occur. However, the critical nature of emergency response dictates that when an incident occurs, first responders always dispatch the closest available responder to the incident. We argue that the crucial period of planning for ERM systems is not post-incident, but between incidents. This is not a trivial planning problem --- a major challenge with dynamically balancing the spatial distribution of responders is the complexity of the problem. An orthogonal problem in ERM systems is planning under limited communication, which is particularly important in disaster scenarios that affect communication networks. We address both problems by proposing two partially decentralized multi-agent planning algorithms that utilize heuristics and exploit the structure of the dispatch problem. We evaluate our proposed approach using real-world data, and find that in several contexts, dynamic re-balancing the spatial distribution of emergency responders reduces both the average response time as well as its variance.

cs.AI↗

Optimizing Collision Avoidance in Dense Airspace using Deep Reinforcement Learning

New methodologies will be needed to ensure the airspace remains safe and efficient as traffic densities rise to accommodate new unmanned operations. This paper explores how unmanned free-flight traffic may operate in dense airspace. We develop and analyze autonomous collision avoidance systems for aircraft operating in dense airspace where traditional collision avoidance systems fail. We propose a metric for quantifying the decision burden on a collision avoidance system as well as a metric for measuring the impact of the collision avoidance system on airspace. We use deep reinforcement learning to compute corrections for an existing collision avoidance approach to account for dense airspace. The results show that a corrected collision avoidance system can operate more efficiently than traditional methods in dense airspace while maintaining high levels of safety.

cs.LG↗

Markov Decision Processes For Multi-Objective Satellite Task Planning

This paper presents a semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) formulation of the satellite task scheduling problem. This formulation can consider multiple operational objectives simultaneously and plan transitions between distinct functional modes. We consider the problem of scheduling image collections, ground contacts, sun-pointed periods for battery recharging, and data recorder management for an agile, resource-constrained Earth-observing spacecraft. By considering multiple mission objectives simultaneously, the algorithm is able to find optimized task schedule that satisfies all operational constraints in a single planning step, thus reducing the operational complexity and number of steps involved in mission planning. We present two solution approaches based on forward search and Monte Carlo Tree search. We baseline against rule-based, graph search, and mixed-integer-linear programming approaches. The SMDP formulation is evaluated in both single-objective and multi-objective scenarios. The SMDP solution is found to perform comparably with the baseline methods at greatly increased speed in single-objective scenarios and greater schedule reward in multi-objective.

eess.SY↗

Efficient Autonomy Validation in Simulation with Adaptive Stress Testing

During the development of autonomous systems such as driverless cars, it is important to characterize the scenarios that are most likely to result in failure. Adaptive Stress Testing (AST) provides a way to search for the most-likely failure scenario as a Markov decision process (MDP). Our previous work used a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) solver to identify likely failure scenarios. However, the solver's use of a feed-forward neural network with a discretized space of possible initial conditions poses two major problems. First, the system is not treated as a black box, in that it requires analyzing the internal state of the system, which leads to considerable implementation complexities. Second, in order to simulate realistic settings, a new instance of the solver needs to be run for each initial condition. Running a new solver for each initial condition not only significantly increases the computational complexity, but also disregards the underlying relationship between similar initial conditions. We provide a solution to both problems by employing a recurrent neural network that takes a set of initial conditions from a continuous space as input. This approach enables robust and efficient detection of failures because the solution generalizes across the entire space of initial conditions. By simulating an instance where an autonomous car drives while a pedestrian is crossing a road, we demonstrate the solver is now capable of finding solutions for problems that would have previously been intractable.

cs.LG↗

Object Exchangeability in Reinforcement Learning: Extended Abstract

Although deep reinforcement learning has advanced significantly over the past several years, sample efficiency remains a major challenge. Careful choice of input representations can help improve efficiency depending on the structure present in the problem. In this work, we present an attention-based method to project inputs into an efficient representation space that is invariant under changes to input ordering. We show that our proposed representation results in a search space that is a factor of m! smaller for inputs of m objects. Our experiments demonstrate improvements in sample efficiency for policy gradient methods on a variety of tasks. We show that our representation allows us to solve problems that are otherwise intractable when using naive approaches.

cs.LG↗

Satellite Image Tasking Under Orbit Prediction Uncertainty

Small satellites have proven to be viable Earth observation platforms. These satellites operate in regimes of increased trajectory uncertainty where traditional planning approaches can lead to sub-optimal task plans, limiting science return. Previous formulations of the space mission planning problem decouple trajectory prediction and planning, which leads to task plans that are less robust to uncertainty. We present a Markov decision process formulation of the problem that accounts for uncertainties by incorporating a distribution of possible collection windows characterized through Monte Carlo simulation. An approximate solution technique yields tasking schedules with rewards comparable to the conventional methods while simultaneously reducing the variations caused by uncertainties and improving runtime.

eess.SY↗

Learning Probabilistic Trajectory Models of Aircraft in Terminal Airspace from Position Data

Models for predicting aircraft motion are an important component of modern aeronautical systems. These models help aircraft plan collision avoidance maneuvers and help conduct offline performance and safety analyses. In this article, we develop a method for learning a probabilistic generative model of aircraft motion in terminal airspace, the controlled airspace surrounding a given airport. The method fits the model based on a historical dataset of radar-based position measurements of aircraft landings and takeoffs at that airport. We find that the model generates realistic trajectories, provides accurate predictions, and captures the statistical properties of aircraft trajectories. Furthermore, the model trains quickly, is compact, and allows for efficient real-time inference.

cs.LG↗

Online algorithms for POMDPs with continuous state, action, and observation spaces

Online solvers for partially observable Markov decision processes have been applied to problems with large discrete state spaces, but continuous state, action, and observation spaces remain a challenge. This paper begins by investigating double progressive widening (DPW) as a solution to this challenge. However, we prove that this modification alone is not sufficient because the belief representations in the search tree collapse to a single particle causing the algorithm to converge to a policy that is suboptimal regardless of the computation time. This paper proposes and evaluates two new algorithms, POMCPOW and PFT-DPW, that overcome this deficiency by using weighted particle filtering. Simulation results show that these modifications allow the algorithms to be successful where previous approaches fail.

cs.AI↗

Layer-wise synapse optimization for implementing neural networks on general neuromorphic architectures

Deep artificial neural networks (ANNs) can represent a wide range of complex functions. Implementing ANNs in Von Neumann computing systems, though, incurs a high energy cost due to the bottleneck created between CPU and memory. Implementation on neuromorphic systems may help to reduce energy demand. Conventional ANNs must be converted into equivalent Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) in order to be deployed on neuromorphic chips. This paper presents a way to perform this translation. We map the ANN weights to SNN synapses layer-by-layer by forming a least-square-error approximation problem at each layer. An optimal set of synapse weights may then be found for a given choice of ANN activation function and SNN neuron. Using an appropriate constrained solver, we can generate SNNs compatible with digital, analog, or hybrid chip architectures. We present an optimal node pruning method to allow SNN layer sizes to be set by the designer. To illustrate this process, we convert three ANNs, including one convolutional network, to SNNs. In all three cases, a simple linear program solver was used. The experiments show that the resulting networks maintain agreement with the original ANN and excellent performance on the evaluation tasks. The networks were also reduced in size with little loss in task performance.

cs.NE↗

Toward Scalable Verification for Safety-Critical Deep Networks

The increasing use of deep neural networks for safety-critical applications, such as autonomous driving and flight control, raises concerns about their safety and reliability. Formal verification can address these concerns by guaranteeing that a deep learning system operates as intended, but the state of the art is limited to small systems. In this work-in-progress report we give an overview of our work on mitigating this difficulty, by pursuing two complementary directions: devising scalable verification techniques, and identifying design choices that result in deep learning systems that are more amenable to verification.

cs.AI↗

Simultaneous active parameter estimation and control using sampling-based Bayesian reinforcement learning

Robots performing manipulation tasks must operate under uncertainty about both their pose and the dynamics of the system. In order to remain robust to modeling error and shifts in payload dynamics, agents must simultaneously perform estimation and control tasks. However, the optimal estimation actions are often not the optimal actions for accomplishing the control tasks, and thus agents trade between exploration and exploitation. This work frames the problem as a Bayes-adaptive Markov decision process and solves it online using Monte Carlo tree search and an extended Kalman filter to handle Gaussian process noise and parameter uncertainty in a continuous space. MCTS selects control actions to reduce model uncertainty and reach the goal state nearly optimally. Certainty equivalent model predictive control is used as a benchmark to compare performance in simulations with varying process noise and parameter uncertainty.

eess.SY↗

Deep Stochastic Radar Models

Accurate simulation and validation of advanced driver assistance systems requires accurate sensor models. Modeling automotive radar is complicated by effects such as multipath reflections, interference, reflective surfaces, discrete cells, and attenuation. Detailed radar simulations based on physical principles exist but are computationally intractable for realistic automotive scenes. This paper describes a methodology for the construction of stochastic automotive radar models based on deep learning with adversarial loss connected to real-world data. The resulting model exhibits fundamental radar effects while remaining real-time capable.

cs.RO↗

Reluplex: An Efficient SMT Solver for Verifying Deep Neural Networks

Deep neural networks have emerged as a widely used and effective means for tackling complex, real-world problems. However, a major obstacle in applying them to safety-critical systems is the great difficulty in providing formal guarantees about their behavior. We present a novel, scalable, and efficient technique for verifying properties of deep neural networks (or providing counter-examples). The technique is based on the simplex method, extended to handle the non-convex Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation function, which is a crucial ingredient in many modern neural networks. The verification procedure tackles neural networks as a whole, without making any simplifying assumptions. We evaluated our technique on a prototype deep neural network implementation of the next-generation airborne collision avoidance system for unmanned aircraft (ACAS Xu). Results show that our technique can successfully prove properties of networks that are an order of magnitude larger than the largest networks verified using existing methods.

cs.AI↗

The Value of Inferring the Internal State of Traffic Participants for Autonomous Freeway Driving

Safe interaction with human drivers is one of the primary challenges for autonomous vehicles. In order to plan driving maneuvers effectively, the vehicle's control system must infer and predict how humans will behave based on their latent internal state (e.g., intentions and aggressiveness). This research uses a simple model for human behavior with unknown parameters that make up the internal states of the traffic participants and presents a method for quantifying the value of estimating these states and planning with their uncertainty explicitly modeled. An upper performance bound is established by an omniscient Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) planner that has perfect knowledge of the internal states. A baseline lower bound is established by planning with MCTS assuming that all drivers have the same internal state. MCTS variants are then used to solve a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) that models the internal state uncertainty to determine whether inferring the internal state offers an advantage over the baseline. Applying this method to a freeway lane changing scenario reveals that there is a significant performance gap between the upper bound and baseline. POMDP planning techniques come close to closing this gap, especially when important hidden model parameters are correlated with measurable parameters.

cs.AI↗

Imitating Driver Behavior with Generative Adversarial Networks

The ability to accurately predict and simulate human driving behavior is critical for the development of intelligent transportation systems. Traditional modeling methods have employed simple parametric models and behavioral cloning. This paper adopts a method for overcoming the problem of cascading errors inherent in prior approaches, resulting in realistic behavior that is robust to trajectory perturbations. We extend Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning to the training of recurrent policies, and we demonstrate that our model outperforms rule-based controllers and maximum likelihood models in realistic highway simulations. Our model both reproduces emergent behavior of human drivers, such as lane change rate, while maintaining realistic control over long time horizons.

cs.AI↗