arXiv subjects

Myrl G. Marmarelis

Publications and source records attributed to Myrl G. Marmarelis.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Representational Control over Self-Report & Behavior Coherence in LLM Risk-Taking

Self-report is an appealing low-cost probe of an LLM's dispositions, but recent work finds only selective agreement between what models report and how they behave. Prior accounts establish these patterns by prompting black-box LLMs, leaving open whether the gap is a prompting artefact or a fact about how the underlying constructs are represented internally. We investigate risk-taking, a consequential dimension of agentic decision-making, using activation steering to measure self-report and behavior under the same internal intervention. We survey nine steering-vector extraction methods spanning task-specific directives, the model's own task behavior, and dispositional descriptions at two granularities, evaluated on two behavioral tasks and two psychometric instruments across four open-weight LLMs. We find that (1) a shared internal intervention does not ensure shared responsiveness: directions built from trait descriptions move self-report but leave behavior at chance, directions built from the model's own task choices do the reverse, and only task-specific directives reach both, weakly. (2) Diagnosis dissolves that exception: removing surface confounders leaves the directives only 32% of their behavioral effect. The two channels are otherwise steered by near-orthogonal directions, each channel reachable by several independent constructions. (3) An intervention composing one behavior-moving and one self-report-moving direction moves both together; flipping one sign sets them in opposition, with reported and enacted risk pointing in opposite directions on 69-89% of flipped compositions in all models. These findings move the self-report-behavior relationship from a black-box observation to a representational one that can be inspected and controlled, motivating representational checks alongside behavioral evaluation.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Rethinking Psychometric Evaluation of LLMs: When and Why Self-Reports Predict Behavior

Anticipating LLM behavioral tendencies from low-cost psychometric probes is critical for safe deployment, but only if self-reports (SR) reliably predict behavior. Recent work documented substantial SR-behavior dissociation in LLMs, but relied on broad personality traits (Big 5) that predict specific behaviors weakly, even in humans. Furthermore, the isolation of conversational sessions combined with weak context matching left open whether LLMs truly lack coherence or whether the conditions needed to detect such coherence were not met. We contrast Big 5 with the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), which measures intention targeted to a specific behavior and predicts human behavior substantially better than broad traits. We run experiments across four behavioral tasks and 11 frontier LLMs, while also varying session context and identity induction. We find that SR-behavior coherence exists but is selective. 1) Within a shared conversation, the Theory of Planned Behavior reaches human-level coherence; Big 5 does not. 2) Across separate conversations, coherence survives only for behaviors anchored outside the immediate prompt, such as implicit bias shaped by training, and collapses when behavior is strongly primed by context, as with sycophancy. 3) Persona prompting makes self-reports more consistent across conversations, but does not bring behavior into alignment. These findings suggest that coarse personality frameworks, such as Big 5 may not be the best tools for testing deployment behavior. More task- and behavior-specific instruments are needed, and even these must be evaluated across tasks and contexts.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Estimating Causal Effects of Text Interventions Leveraging LLMs

Quantifying the effects of textual interventions in social systems, such as reducing anger in social media posts to see its impact on engagement, is challenging. Real-world interventions are often infeasible, necessitating reliance on observational data. Traditional causal inference methods, typically designed for binary or discrete treatments, are inadequate for handling the complex, high-dimensional textual data. This paper addresses these challenges by proposing CausalDANN, a novel approach to estimate causal effects using text transformations facilitated by large language models (LLMs). Unlike existing methods, our approach accommodates arbitrary textual interventions and leverages text-level classifiers with domain adaptation ability to produce robust effect estimates against domain shifts, even when only the control group is observed. This flexibility in handling various text interventions is a key advancement in causal estimation for textual data, offering opportunities to better understand human behaviors and develop effective interventions within social systems.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Capturing Perspectives of Crowdsourced Annotators in Subjective Learning Tasks

Supervised classification heavily depends on datasets annotated by humans. However, in subjective tasks such as toxicity classification, these annotations often exhibit low agreement among raters. Annotations have commonly been aggregated by employing methods like majority voting to determine a single ground truth label. In subjective tasks, aggregating labels will result in biased labeling and, consequently, biased models that can overlook minority opinions. Previous studies have shed light on the pitfalls of label aggregation and have introduced a handful of practical approaches to tackle this issue. Recently proposed multi-annotator models, which predict labels individually per annotator, are vulnerable to under-determination for annotators with few samples. This problem is exacerbated in crowdsourced datasets. In this work, we propose \textbf{Annotator Aware Representations for Texts (AART)} for subjective classification tasks. Our approach involves learning representations of annotators, allowing for exploration of annotation behaviors. We show the improvement of our method on metrics that assess the performance on capturing individual annotators' perspectives. Additionally, we demonstrate fairness metrics to evaluate our model's equability of performance for marginalized annotators compared to others.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Ensembled Prediction Intervals for Causal Outcomes Under Hidden Confounding

Causal inference of exact individual treatment outcomes in the presence of hidden confounders is rarely possible. Recent work has extended prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees to partially identifiable causal outcomes, by means of a sensitivity model for hidden confounding. In deep learning, predictors can exploit their inductive biases for better generalization out of sample. We argue that the structure inherent to a deep ensemble should inform a tighter partial identification of the causal outcomes that they predict. We therefore introduce an approach termed Caus-Modens, for characterizing causal outcome intervals by modulated ensembles. We present a simple approach to partial identification using existing causal sensitivity models and show empirically that Caus-Modens gives tighter outcome intervals, as measured by the necessary interval size to achieve sufficient coverage. The last of our three diverse benchmarks is a novel usage of GPT-4 for observational experiments with unknown but probeable ground truth.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Partial Identification of Dose Responses with Hidden Confounders

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding variables -- causal parents of both the treatment and the outcome -- are included as covariates. Unfortunately, given observational data alone, we cannot know with certainty that this criterion is satisfied. Sensitivity analyses provide principled ways to give bounds on causal estimates when confounding variables are hidden. While much attention is focused on sensitivity analyses for discrete-valued treatments, much less is paid to continuous-valued treatments. We present novel methodology to bound both average and conditional average continuous-valued treatment-effect estimates when they cannot be point identified due to hidden confounding. A semi-synthetic benchmark on multiple datasets shows our method giving tighter coverage of the true dose-response curve than a recently proposed continuous sensitivity model and baselines. Finally, we apply our method to a real-world observational case study to demonstrate the value of identifying dose-dependent causal effects.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

A Metric Space for Point Process Excitations

A multivariate Hawkes process enables self- and cross-excitations through a triggering matrix that behaves like an asymmetrical covariance structure, characterizing pairwise interactions between the event types. Full-rank estimation of all interactions is often infeasible in empirical settings. Models that specialize on a spatiotemporal application alleviate this obstacle by exploiting spatial locality, allowing the dyadic relationships between events to depend only on separation in time and relative distances in real Euclidean space. Here we generalize this framework to any multivariate Hawkes process, and harness it as a vessel for embedding arbitrary event types in a hidden metric space. Specifically, we propose a Hidden Hawkes Geometry (HHG) model to uncover the hidden geometry between event excitations in a multivariate point process. The low dimensionality of the embedding regularizes the structure of the inferred interactions. We develop a number of estimators and validate the model by conducting several experiments. In particular, we investigate regional infectivity dynamics of COVID-19 in an early South Korean record and recent Los Angeles confirmed cases. By additionally performing synthetic experiments on short records as well as explorations into options markets and the Ebola epidemic, we demonstrate that learning the embedding alongside a point process uncovers salient interactions in a broad range of applications.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Efficient and Robust Polylinear Analysis of Noisy Time Series

A method is proposed to generate an optimal fit of a number of connected linear trend segments onto time-series data. To be able to efficiently handle many lines, the method employs a stochastic search procedure to determine optimal transition point locations. Traditional methods use exhaustive grid searches, which severely limit the scale of the problems for which they can be utilized. The proposed approach is tried against time series with severe noise to demonstrate its robustness, and then it is applied to real medical data as an illustrative example.

q-bio.QM↗