arXiv subjects

Myunghyun Song

Publications and source records attributed to Myunghyun Song.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Empirical Bayes Estimation in Heterogeneous Coefficient Panel Models

We develop an empirical Bayes (EB) G-modeling framework for short-panel linear models with nonparametric prior for the random intercepts, slopes, dynamics, and non-spherical error variances. We establish identification and consistency of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) under general conditions, and provide low-level sufficient conditions for several models of empirical interest. Conditions for regret consistency of the EB estimators are also established. The NPMLE is computed using a Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao gradient flow algorithm adapted to panel regressions. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find that the slope coefficient for potential experience is substantially heterogeneous and negatively correlated with the random intercept, and that error variances and autoregressive coefficients vary significantly across individuals. The EB estimates reduce mean squared prediction errors relative to individual maximum likelihood estimates.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

SLIM: Stochastic Learning and Inference in Overidentified Models

We propose SLIM (Stochastic Learning and Inference in overidentified Models), a scalable stochastic approximation framework for nonlinear GMM. SLIM forms iterative updates from independent mini-batches of moments and their derivatives, producing unbiased directions that ensure almost-sure convergence. It requires neither a consistent initial estimator nor global convexity and accommodates both fixed-sample and random-sampling asymptotics. We further develop an optional second-order refinement achieving full-sample GMM efficiency and inference procedures based on random scaling and plug-in methods, including plug-in, debiased plug-in, and online versions of the Sargan--Hansen $J$-test tailored to stochastic learning. In Monte Carlo experiments based on a nonlinear demand system with 576 moment conditions, 380 parameters, and $n = 10^5$, SLIM solves the model in under 1.4 hours, whereas full-sample GMM in Stata on a powerful laptop converges only after 18 hours. The debiased plug-in $J$-test delivers satisfactory finite-sample inference, and SLIM scales smoothly to $n = 10^6$.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Identification and Inference in General Bunching Designs

This paper develops an econometric framework and tools for the identification and inference of a structural parameter in general bunching designs. We present point and partial identification results, which generalize previous approaches in the literature. The key assumption for point identification is the analyticity of the counterfactual density, which defines a broader class of distributions than many commonly used parametric families. In the partial identification approach, the analyticity condition is relaxed and various inequality restrictions can be incorporated. Both of our identification approaches allow for observed covariates in the model, which has previously been permitted only in limited ways. These covariates allow us to account for observable factors that influence decisions regarding the running variable. We provide a suite of counterfactual estimation and inference methods, termed the generalized polynomial strategy. Our method restores the merits of the original polynomial strategy proposed by Chetty et al. (2011) while addressing several weaknesses in the widespread practice. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated compared to the polynomial estimator in a series of Monte Carlo studies within the augmented isoelastic model. We revisit the data used in Saez (2010) and find substantially different results relative to those from the polynomial strategy.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Inference for parameters identified by conditional moment restrictions using a generalized Bierens maximum statistic

Many economic panel and dynamic models, such as rational behavior and Euler equations, imply that the parameters of interest are identified by conditional moment restrictions. We introduce a novel inference method without any prior information about which conditioning instruments are weak or irrelevant. Building on Bierens (1990), we propose penalized maximum statistics and combine bootstrap inference with model selection. Our method optimizes asymptotic power by solving a data-dependent max-min problem for tuning parameter selection. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments, based on an empirical example, demonstrate the extent to which our inference procedure is superior to those available in the literature.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

SGMM: Stochastic Approximation to Generalized Method of Moments

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

econ.EM↗