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Nacira Agram

Publications and source records attributed to Nacira Agram.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

A cylindrical neural approximation theorem for conditional laws of McKean-Vlasov equations with common noise

We introduce conditional cylindrical neural networks for approximating functionals of conditional laws in McKean-Vlasov equations with common noise. Fourier moments of the initial law and truncated signatures of the time augmented common noise are mapped by a mixture density network to a Gaussian mixture approximation of the conditional law. A cylindrical neural network then evaluates the target functional through analytic integrals against this predicted measure. Rough path well posedness and stability provide a conditional law map that is continuous in the initial distribution and the rough driver and agrees almost surely with the classical conditional law at the Itô Brownian lift. Combining this continuity with Fourier separation, signature uniqueness, Wasserstein density of Gaussian mixtures, and neural universal approximation, we prove an $L^2$ universal approximation theorem for continuous square integrable functionals. The numerical study implements the resulting two stage procedure on six examples, including non Gaussian initial laws, nonlinear drift, multiplicative common noise, and a two dimensional state. Independent particle references are used when no closed form law is available. The learned conditional law and functional approximations consistently improve on the empirical particle plug in, and additional experiments examine feature sensitivity, training from one terminal observation per common noise scenario, and Itô--Stratonovich consistency.

math.PR

Nonzero-Sum Stochastic Differential Games for Controlled Convection-Diffusion SPDEs

This paper studies a two-player nonzero-sum stochastic differential game governed by a controlled convection-diffusion stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with spatially heterogeneous coefficients. The diffusion and transport operators depend on the players' controls, allowing each agent to influence the system dynamics. We prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions to both the forward uncontrolled SPDE and the associated adjoint backward SPDE (BSPDE) in a Hilbert space framework. Using a Hamiltonian approach, we derive sufficient and necessary maximum principles characterizing Nash equilibria. Special attention is given to operators with piecewise constant coefficients, where interface transmission conditions arise naturally. As an illustration, we provide two examples from composite materials where the game structure models the interaction between different material phases in a diffusion process.

math.PR

Optimal Stopping for Systems Driven by the Brownian Sheet

We investigate optimal stopping problems for systems driven by the Brownian sheet. Our analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part we derive explicit solutions to two optimal stopping problems for the exponentially discounted Brownian sheet. The first problem consists in determining the optimal two-parameter first hitting point tau = (tau1,tau2) maximizing E[exp(-rho tau1 tau2) h(B(tau1,tau2))], where rho > 0 is a discount factor and h is a reward function. Restricting attention to first hitting points of levels, we obtain a closed-form characterization of the optimal stopping threshold. In particular, for linear rewards h(y)=y the optimal level is y_hat = (2 rho)^(-1/2). The second problem concerns optimal stopping of the integrated discounted Brownian sheet with payoff E[int_0^{tau1} int_0^{tau2} exp(-rho t x) B(t,x) dt dx]. We show that the optimal first hitting level is strictly positive and give an explicit representation of the value function in terms of the exponential integral function. The optimal threshold is characterized as the unique solution of a nonlinear equation derived from a Laplace transform identity for the product tau1 tau2. In the second and main part of the paper we develop a potential theoretic framework for two-parameter optimal stopping problems associated with stochastic partial differential equations driven by the Brownian sheet, proving that the value function is the least superharmonic majorant of the reward and establishing existence of optimal stopping points in the plane.

math.PR

Fokker-Planck equations for McKean-Vlasov SDEs driven by fractional Brownian motion

This paper investigates the probability distribution of solutions to McKean--Vlasov stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H>1/2. Our main contribution is the derivation of the associated Fokker--Planck equation, which characterizes the time evolution of the law of the solution in a suitable distributional framework. Under mild assumptions, we show that the law-valued process is absolutely continuous in time and provide an explicit weak formulation of the corresponding fractional McKean--Vlasov Fokker--Planck equation. In the case where the law admits a density, we obtain a more explicit partial differential equation with time-dependent diffusion coefficients induced by the fractional noise. We further establish a fractional Feynman--Kac representation, linking the forward Fokker--Planck equation with a backward Kolmogorov equation for functionals of the solution process. This result extends the classical Feynman--Kac framework to mean--field dynamics driven by fractional Brownian motion. To illustrate the theory, we analyze several explicit examples, including the law of fractional Brownian motion itself and linear McKean--Vlasov fractional SDEs. These examples highlight how fractional noise and mean--field interactions jointly affect the probabilistic and analytic structure of the system.

math.PR

Deep Learning for Energy Market Contracts: Dynkin Game with Doubly RBSDEs

We formulate a Contract for Difference (CfD) with early exit options as a two-player zero-sum Dynkin game, reflecting the strategic interaction between an electricity producer and a regulatory entity. The game incorporates penalties for early termination and mean-reverting price dynamics, with the value characterized through a doubly reflected backward stochastic differential equation (DRBSDE). To compute the contract value and optimal stopping strategies, we develop a neural solver that approximates the DRBSDE solution using a sequence of neural networks trained on simulated trajectories. The method avoids discretizing the state space, supports time-dependent barriers, and scales to high-dimensional settings. We establish a convergence result and test the method on two scenarios: a benchmark symmetric game in 20 dimensions, and a CfD model with 24-dimensional electricity prices representing multiple European zones. The results demonstrate that the proposed solver accurately captures the contract's value and optimal stopping regions, with consistent performance across dimensional settings.

math.OC

Deep BSVIEs Parametrization and Learning-Based Applications

We study the numerical approximation of backward stochastic Volterra integral equations (BSVIEs) and their reflected extensions, which naturally arise in problems with time inconsistency, path dependent preferences, and recursive utilities with memory. These equations generalize classical BSDEs by involving two dimensional time structures and more intricate dependencies. We begin by developing a well posedness and measurability framework for BSVIEs in product probability spaces. Our approach relies on a representation of the solution as a parametrized family of backward stochastic equations indexed by the initial time, and draws on results of Stricker and Yor to ensure that the two parameter solution is well defined in a joint measurable sense. We then introduce a discrete time learning scheme based on a recursive backward representation of the BSVIE, combining the discretization of Hamaguchi and Taguchi with deep neural networks. A detailed convergence analysis is provided, generalizing the framework of deep BSDE solvers to the two dimensional BSVIE setting. Finally, we extend the solver to reflected BSVIEs, motivated by applications in delayed recursive utility with lower constraints.

math.PR

A Deep Learning Approach to Renewable Capacity Installation under Jump Uncertainty

We study a stochastic model for the installation of renewable energy capacity under demand uncertainty and jump driven dynamics. The system is governed by a multidimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process driven by a subordinator, capturing abrupt variations in renewable generation and electricity load. Installation decisions are modeled through control actions that increase capacity in response to environmental and economic conditions. We consider two distinct solution approaches. First, we implement a structured threshold based control rule, where capacity is increased proportionally when the stochastic capacity factor falls below a fixed level. This formulation leads to a nonlinear partial integro-differential equation (PIDE), which we solve by reformulating it as a backward stochastic differential equation with jumps. We extend the DBDP solver in \cite{hure2020deep} to the pure jump setting, employing a dual neural network architecture to approximate both the value function and the jump sensitivity. Second, we propose a fully data driven deep control algorithm that directly learns the optimal feedback policy by minimizing the expected cost functional using neural networks. This approach avoids assumptions on the form of the control rule and enables adaptive interventions based on the evolving system state. Numerical experiments highlight the strengths of both methods. While the threshold based BSDE approach offers interpretability and tractability, the deep control strategy achieves improved performance through flexibility in capacity allocation. Together, these tools provide a robust framework for decision support in long term renewable energy expansion under uncertainty.

eess.SY

SPDE Games Driven by a Brownian Sheet with Applications to Pollution Minimization

This paper studies a nonzero-sum stochastic differential game in the context of shared spatial-domain pollution control. The pollution dynamics are governed by a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) driven by a Brownian sheet, capturing the stochastic nature of environmental fluctuations. Two players, representing different regions, aim to minimize their respective cost functionals, which balance pollution penalties with the cost of implementing control strategies. The nonzero-sum framework reflects the interdependent yet conflicting objectives of the players, where both cooperation and competition influence the outcomes. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for Nash equilibrium strategies, using a maximum principle approach. This approach involves the introduction of a new pair of adjoint variables, (L_1, L_2), which do not appear in a corresponding formulation with the classical (1-parameter) Brownian motion. Finally, we apply our results to two case studies in pollution control, demonstrating how spatial and stochastic dynamics shape the equilibrium strategies.

math.OC

Spatially Controlled Evolution of Composite Materials via Stochastic Partial Differential Equations

This paper investigates a class of controlled stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) arising in the modeling of composite materials with spatially varying properties. The state equation describes the evolution of a material property, influenced by control inputs that adjust the diffusivity in different spatial regions. We establish the existence of mild solutions to the SPDE under appropriate regularity conditions on the coefficients and the control. A derivation of the sufficient and necessary conditions for optimality is provided using the stochastic maximum principle. These conditions connect the state dynamics to adjoint processes, enabling the characterization of the optimal control in terms of the curvature of the state and the sensitivity of the cost. Two explicit solvable examples are presented to illustrate the theoretical results, where the optimal control is computed explicitly for a composite material with piecewise constant diffusivity.

math.OC

Fokker-Planck equations for conditional McKean-Vlasov systems driven by Brownian sheets

We investigate conditional McKean-Vlasov equations driven by time-space white noise, motivated by the propagation of chaos in an N-particle system with space-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics. The framework builds on the stochastic calculus of time-space white noise, utilizing tools such as the two-parameter Ito formula, Malliavin calculus, and orthogonal decompositions to analyze convergence and stochastic properties. Existence and uniqueness of solutions for the associated stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) are rigorously established. Additionally, an integral stochastic Fokker-Planck equation is derived for the conditional law, employing Fourier transform methods and stochastic analysis in the plane. The framework is further applied to a partial observation control problem, showcasing its potential for analyzing stochastic systems with conditional dynamics.

math.PR

SIG-BSDE for Dynamic Risk Measures

In this paper, we consider dynamic risk measures induced by backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). We discuss different examples that come up in the literature, including the entropic risk measure and the risk measure arising from the ambiguous interest rate problem. We develop a numerical algorithm for solving a BSDE using the backward Euler-Maruyama scheme and the universal approximation theorem for the signature of a path. We prove the convergence theorem and use the algorithm to solve some examples of dynamic risk measures induced by BSDEs. At last a deep learning approach is included for solving the ambiguous interest rate problem as well.

math.PR

Installation of renewable capacities to meet emission targets and demand under uncertainty

This paper focuses on minimizing the costs related to renewable energy installations under emission constraints. We tackle the problem in three different cases. Assuming intervening once, we determine the optimal time to install and the optimal capacity expansions under uncertainty. By assuming the possibility of two or multiple interventions, we find that the optimal strategy is to intervene only once. We also prove that there are instances where capacity expansions should be delayed.

math.OC

A Kalman filter for linear systems driven by time-space Brownian sheet

We study a linear filtering problem where the signal and observation processes are described as solutions of linear stochastic differential equations driven by time-space Brownian sheets. We derive a stochastic integral equation for the conditional value of the signal given the observation, which can be considered a time-space analogue of the classical Kalman filter. The result is illustrated with examples of the filtering problem involving noisy observations.

math.PR

Deep learning for quadratic hedging in incomplete jump market

We propose a deep learning approach to study the minimal variance pricing and hedging problem in an incomplete jump diffusion market. It is based upon a rigorous stochastic calculus derivation of the optimal hedging portfolio, optimal option price, and the corresponding equivalent martingale measure through the means of the Stackelberg game approach. A deep learning algorithm based on the combination of the feedforward and LSTM neural networks is tested on three different market models, two of which are incomplete. In contrast, the complete market Black-Scholes model serves as a benchmark for the algorithm's performance. The results that indicate the algorithm's good performance are presented and discussed. In particular, we apply our results to the special incomplete market model studied by Merton and give a detailed comparison between our results based on the minimal variance principle and the results obtained by Merton based on a different pricing principle. Using deep learning, we find that the minimal variance principle leads to typically higher option prices than those deduced from the Merton principle. On the other hand, the minimal variance principle leads to lower losses than the Merton principle.

q-fin.TR

Fokker-Planck equation for McKean-Vlasov SPDEs driven by time-space Brownian sheet

In this paper, we consider a McKean-Vlasov (mean-field) stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) driven by a Brownian sheet. We study the propagation of chaos for a space-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck SPDE type. Subsequently, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a nonlinear McKean-Vlasov SPDE. Finally, we establish a Fokker-Planck equation for the law of the solution of the McKean-Vlasov type SPDE driven by a time-space Brownian sheet, and we provide some examples to illustrate the results obtained.

math.PR

Optimal control of SPDEs driven by time-space Brownian motion

In this paper we study a Pontryagin type stochastic maximum principle for the optimal control of a system, where the state dynamics satisfy a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) driven by a two-parameter (time-space) Brownian motion (also called Brownian sheet). We first discuss some properties of a Brownian sheet driven linear SPDE which models the growth of an ecosystem. Further, applying time-space white noise calculus we derive sufficient conditions and necessary conditions of optimality of the control. Finally, we illustrate our results by solving a linear quadratic control problem and an optimal harvesting problem in the plane. We also study possible applications to machine learning.

math.OC

The Donsker delta function and local time for McKean-Vlasov processes and applications

The purpose of this paper is to establish a stochastic differential equation for the Donsker delta measure of the solution of a McKean-Vlasov (mean-field) stochastic differential equation. If the Donsker delta measure is absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure, then its Radon-Nikodym derivative is called the Donsker delta function. In that case it can be proved that the local time of such a process is simply the integral with respect to time of the Donsker delta function. Therefore we also get an equation for the local time of such a process. For some particular McKean-Vlasov processes, we find explicit expressions for their Donsker delta functions and hence for their local times.

math.PR

Stochastic Fokker-Planck PIDE for conditional McKean-Vlasov jump diffusions and applications to optimal control

The purpose of this paper is to study optimal control of conditional McKean-Vlasov (mean-field) stochastic differential equations with jumps (conditional McKean-Vlasov jump diffusions, for short). To this end, we first prove a stochastic Fokker-Planck equation for the conditional law of the solution of such equations. Combining this equation with the original state equation, we obtain a Markovian system for the state and its conditional law. Furthermore, we apply this to formulate an Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation for the optimal control of conditional McKean-Vlasov jump diffusions. Then we study the situation when the law is absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure. In that case the Fokker-Planck equation reduces to a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) for the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the conditional law. Finally we apply these results to solve explicitly the following problems: -Linear-quadratic optimal control of conditional stochastic McKean-Vlasov jump diffusions. -Optimal consumption from a cash flow modelled as a conditional stochastic McKean-Vlasov differential equation with jumps.

math.PR