arXiv subjects

Nadav Harel

Publications and source records attributed to Nadav Harel.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Revisiting the Misspecified Cramér-Rao Bound

Estimation under model misspecification arises in many signal processing problems, where the assumed observation model deviates from the true data-generating mechanism due to errors or simplifications. The misspecified Cramér-Rao bound (MCRB) is a widely recognized mean-squared-error (MSE) lower bound for this case, which has originally been used to describe the asymptotic behavior of the misspecified maximum likelihood (MML) estimator. Despite its widespread use, the MCRB lacks a rigorous characterization of the class of estimators for which it is valid. In this paper, we revisit the theory of parameter estimation under model misspecification and re-examine the foundations of the MCRB. We first demonstrate these limitations and examine a naive version of the MCRB, which relies only on local misspecified unbiasedness. We show that this bound is generally not tight and may be unattainable. To obtain a meaningful bound, we develop a new derivation based on the concept of pointwise equivalent models. By maximizing the naive bound for these models, we recover the classical MCRB, now supported by a constructive derivation, an explicit characterization of the associated estimator class, and an equality condition. This formulation establishes a formal link between local unbiasedness conditions and achievable bounds, offering new insights into the MCRB structure and its relevance to practical estimators. Finally, we define the notion of an efficient misspecified estimator and show that if it exists, it is achieved by the MML estimator.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Non-Bayesian Post-Model-Selection Estimation as Estimation Under Model Misspecification

In many parameter estimation problems, the exact model is unknown and is assumed to belong to a set of candidate models. In such cases, a predetermined data-based selection rule selects a parametric model from a set of candidates before the parameter estimation. The existing framework for estimation under model misspecification does not account for the selection process that led to the misspecified model. Moreover, in post-model-selection estimation, there are multiple candidate models chosen based on the observations, making the interpretation of the assumed model in the misspecified setting non-trivial. In this work, we present three interpretations to address the problem of non-Bayesian post-model-selection estimation as an estimation under model misspecification problem: the naive interpretation, the normalized interpretation, and the selective inference interpretation, and discuss their properties. For each of these interpretations, we developed the corresponding misspecified maximum likelihood estimator and the misspecified Cram$\acute{\text{e}}$r-Rao-type lower bound. The relations between the estimators and the performance bounds, as well as their properties, are discussed. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimators and bounds via simulations of estimation after channel selection. We show that the proposed performance bounds are more informative than the oracle Cram$\acute{\text{e}}$r-Rao Bound (CRB), where the third interpretation (selective inference) results in the lowest mean-squared-error (MSE) among the estimators.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2020

Low-Complexity Methods for Estimation After Parameter Selection

Statistical inference of multiple parameters often involves a preliminary parameter selection stage. The selection stage has an impact on subsequent estimation, for example by introducing a selection bias. The post-selection maximum likelihood (PSML) estimator is shown to reduce the selection bias and the post-selection mean-squared-error (PSMSE) compared with conventional estimators, such as the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator. However, the computational complexity of the PSML is usually high due to the multi-dimensional exhaustive search for a global maximum of the post-selection log-likelihood (PSLL) function. Moreover, the PSLL involves the probability of selection that, in general, does not have an analytical form. In this paper, we develop new low-complexity post-selection estimation methods for a two-stage estimation after parameter selection architecture. The methods are based on implementing the iterative maximization by parts (MBP) approach, which is based on the decomposition of the PSLL function into "easily-optimized" and complicated parts. The proposed second-best PSML method applies the MBP-PSML algorithm with a pairwise probability of selection between the two highest-ranked parameters w.r.t. the selection rule. The proposed SA-PSML method is based on using stochastic approximation (SA) and Monte Carlo integrations to obtain a non-parametric estimation of the gradient of the probability of selection and then applying the MBP-PSML algorithm on this approximation. For low-complexity performance analysis, we develop the empirical post-selection Cramer-Rao-type lower bound. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed post-selection estimation methods are tractable and reduce both the bias and the PSMSE, compared with the ML estimator, while only requiring moderate computational complexity.

eess.SP↗