Contextual Geospatial Features for Identifying Informal Environmental-Health Hazards Undetectable from Satellites: A ULAB Case Study
Reliable, scalable detection of informal, small-scale environmental-health hazards (used lead-acid battery (ULAB) recycling, household-scale e-waste burning, indoor mercury amalgamation, brick kilns, small tanneries) remains an unsolved problem. These operations are invisible to satellites and absent from formal registries, yet disproportionately harm low-income populations in low- and middle-income countries. This paper articulates the problem class and explores a possible response: contextual geospatial features, with case-specific feature design informed by domain expertise. We use ULAB recycling as a demonstration case, drawing on 164 verified sites in Bangladesh and India from Pure Earth's Toxic Sites Identification Programme. At this sample size, five-fold cross-validation on the training set cannot statistically distinguish the engineered contextual features from a simple two-feature socio-demographic baseline. The added value only becomes visible when we evaluate outside the training set. On 172 held-out informal-recycling sites in non-NCR India and Bangladesh, the model assigns scores several times higher than to matched random urban controls; and on an independent set of 131 regulatory-confirmed formal recyclers, informal sites score materially higher than formal ones in non-NCR India, indicating that the model is picking up informal-recycler-specific structure rather than generic industrial signal. We frame these results as exploratory rather than confirmatory: label sparsity, gaps in point-of-interest coverage, and untested transfer beyond South Asia all remain open. We close with seven open problems and invite the environmental-health and geospatial machine-learning communities to engage with informal-hazard detection as a class of problems worth solving.