arXiv subjects

Najmeh Nakhaei Rad

Publications and source records attributed to Najmeh Nakhaei Rad.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Interval-valued circular time series: A toroidal score-driven approach with an application to wind direction

Circular data recorded over time, such as wind direction, are increasingly observed in intervals rather than as single point-valued observations, yet no existing framework accommodates data that are simultaneously circular, interval-valued, and temporally dependent. Time series models for point-valued circular data, including recently proposed score-driven approaches, assume that each observation is a single angle. This paper addresses this gap by proposing a dynamic conditional score framework for interval-valued circular time series. The lower and upper boundary sequences of the observed intervals are treated as circular time series governed by score-driven dynamics, which preserves the periodicity of the circular domain and the dependency of boundaries, in which the boundaries are coupled through a toroidal distribution and a jointly derived score. Maximum likelihood estimation is discussed, and their finite-sample performance is evaluated through simulation. An application to interval-valued wind direction data illustrates the practical value of retaining the interval structure within a fully rotationally invariant circular framework.

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arXiv2026

Robust semi-parametric mixtures of linear experts using the contaminated Gaussian distribution

Semi- and non-parametric mixture of regressions are a very useful flexible class of mixture of regressions in which some or all of the parameters are non-parametric functions of the covariates. These models are, however, based on the Gaussian assumption of the component error distributions. Thus, their estimation is sensitive to outliers and heavy-tailed error distributions. In this paper, we propose semi- and non-parametric contaminated Gaussian mixture of regressions to robustly estimate the parametric and/or non-parametric terms of the models in the presence of mild outliers. The virtue of using a contaminated Gaussian error distribution is that we can simultaneously perform model-based clustering of observations and model-based outlier detection. We propose two algorithms, an expectation-maximization (EM)-type algorithm and an expectation-conditional-maximization (ECM)-type algorithm, to perform maximum likelihood and local-likelihood kernel estimation of the parametric and non-parametric of the proposed models, respectively. The robustness of the proposed models is examined using an extensive simulation study. The practical utility of the proposed models is demonstrated using real data.

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arXiv2026

Model-based clustering using a new mixture of circular regressions

Regression models, where the response variable is circular, are common in areas such as biology, geology and meteorology. A typical model assumes that the conditional distribution of the response follows a von-Mises distribution. However, this assumption is inadequate when the response variable is multimodal. For this reason, in this paper, a finite mixture of regressions model is proposed for the case of a circular response variable and a set of circular and/or linear covariates. Mixture models are very useful when the underlying population is multimodal. Despite the prevalence of multimodality in regression modelling of circular data, the use of mixtures of regressions has received no attention in the literature. This paper aims to close this knowledge gap. To estimate the proposed model, we develop a maximum likelihood estimation procedure via the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. An extensive simulation study is used to demonstrate the practical use and performance of the proposed model and estimation procedure. In addition, the model is shown to be useful as a model-based clustering tool. Lastly, the model is applied to a real dataset from a wind farm in South Africa.

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arXiv2021

Protein Structure Parameterization via Mobius Distributions on the Torus

Proteins constitute a large group of macromolecules with a multitude of functions for all living organisms. Proteins achieve this by adopting distinct three-dimensional structures encoded by the sequence of their constituent amino acids in one or more polypeptides. In this paper, the statistical modelling of the protein backbone torsion angles is considered. Two new distributions are proposed for toroidal data by applying the Möbius transformation to the bivariate von Mises distribution. Marginal and conditional distributions in addition to sine-skewed versions of the proposed models are also developed. Three big data sets consisting of bivariate information about protein domains are analysed to illustrate the strength of the flexible proposed models. Finally, a simulation study is done to evaluate the obtained maximum likelihood estimates and also to find the best method of generating samples from the proposed models to use as the proposal distributions in the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling method for predicting the 3D structure of proteins.

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