arXiv subjects

Nal Kalchbrenner

Publications and source records attributed to Nal Kalchbrenner.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

An Operational Deep Learning System for Satellite-Based High-Resolution Global Nowcasting

Precipitation nowcasting, which predicts rainfall up to a few hours ahead, is a critical tool for vulnerable communities in the Global South frequently exposed to intense, rapidly developing storms. Timely forecasts provide a crucial window to protect lives and livelihoods. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods suffer from high latency, low spatial and temporal resolution, and significant gaps in accuracy across the world. Recent machine learning-based nowcasting methods, common in the Global North, cannot be extended to the Global South due to extremely sparse radar coverage. We present Global MetNet, an operational global machine learning nowcasting model. It leverages the Global Precipitation Mission's CORRA dataset, geostationary satellite data, and global NWP data to predict precipitation for the next 12 hours. The model operates at a high resolution of approximately 0.05{\deg} (~5km) spatially and 15 minutes temporally. Global MetNet significantly outperforms industry-standard hourly forecasts and achieves significantly higher skill, making forecasts useful over a much larger area of the world than previously available. Our model demonstrates better skill in data-sparse regions than even the best high-resolution NWP models achieve in the US. Validated using ground radar and satellite data, it shows significant improvements across key metrics like the critical success index and fractions skill score for all precipitation rates and lead times. Crucially, our model generates forecasts in under a minute, making it readily deployable for real-time applications. It is already deployed for millions of users on Google Search. This work represents a key step in reducing global disparities in forecast quality and integrating sparse, high-resolution satellite observations into weather forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Deep Learning for Day Forecasts from Sparse Observations

Deep neural networks offer an alternative paradigm for modeling weather conditions. The ability of neural models to make a prediction in less than a second once the data is available and to do so with very high temporal and spatial resolution, and the ability to learn directly from atmospheric observations, are just some of these models' unique advantages. Neural models trained using atmospheric observations, the highest fidelity and lowest latency data, have to date achieved good performance only up to twelve hours of lead time when compared with state-of-the-art probabilistic Numerical Weather Prediction models and only for the sole variable of precipitation. In this paper, we present MetNet-3 that extends significantly both the lead time range and the variables that an observation based neural model can predict well. MetNet-3 learns from both dense and sparse data sensors and makes predictions up to 24 hours ahead for precipitation, wind, temperature and dew point. MetNet-3 introduces a key densification technique that implicitly captures data assimilation and produces spatially dense forecasts in spite of the network training on extremely sparse targets. MetNet-3 has a high temporal and spatial resolution of, respectively, up to 2 minutes and 1 km as well as a low operational latency. We find that MetNet-3 is able to outperform the best single- and multi-member NWPs such as HRRR and ENS over the CONUS region for up to 24 hours ahead setting a new performance milestone for observation based neural models. MetNet-3 is operational and its forecasts are served in Google Search in conjunction with other models.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Do better ImageNet classifiers assess perceptual similarity better?

Perceptual distances between images, as measured in the space of pre-trained deep features, have outperformed prior low-level, pixel-based metrics on assessing perceptual similarity. While the capabilities of older and less accurate models such as AlexNet and VGG to capture perceptual similarity are well known, modern and more accurate models are less studied. In this paper, we present a large-scale empirical study to assess how well ImageNet classifiers perform on perceptual similarity. First, we observe a inverse correlation between ImageNet accuracy and Perceptual Scores of modern networks such as ResNets, EfficientNets, and Vision Transformers: that is better classifiers achieve worse Perceptual Scores. Then, we examine the ImageNet accuracy/Perceptual Score relationship on varying the depth, width, number of training steps, weight decay, label smoothing, and dropout. Higher accuracy improves Perceptual Score up to a certain point, but we uncover a Pareto frontier between accuracies and Perceptual Score in the mid-to-high accuracy regime. We explore this relationship further using a number of plausible hypotheses such as distortion invariance, spatial frequency sensitivity, and alternative perceptual functions. Interestingly we discover shallow ResNets and ResNets trained for less than 5 epochs only on ImageNet, whose emergent Perceptual Score matches the prior best networks trained directly on supervised human perceptual judgements. The checkpoints for the models in our study are available at https://console.cloud.google.com/storage/browser/gresearch/perceptual_similarity.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Skillful Twelve Hour Precipitation Forecasts using Large Context Neural Networks

The problem of forecasting weather has been scientifically studied for centuries due to its high impact on human lives, transportation, food production and energy management, among others. Current operational forecasting models are based on physics and use supercomputers to simulate the atmosphere to make forecasts hours and days in advance. Better physics-based forecasts require improvements in the models themselves, which can be a substantial scientific challenge, as well as improvements in the underlying resolution, which can be computationally prohibitive. An emerging class of weather models based on neural networks represents a paradigm shift in weather forecasting: the models learn the required transformations from data instead of relying on hand-coded physics and are computationally efficient. For neural models, however, each additional hour of lead time poses a substantial challenge as it requires capturing ever larger spatial contexts and increases the uncertainty of the prediction. In this work, we present a neural network that is capable of large-scale precipitation forecasting up to twelve hours ahead and, starting from the same atmospheric state, the model achieves greater skill than the state-of-the-art physics-based models HRRR and HREF that currently operate in the Continental United States. Interpretability analyses reinforce the observation that the model learns to emulate advanced physics principles. These results represent a substantial step towards establishing a new paradigm of efficient forecasting with neural networks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Gradual Domain Adaptation in the Wild:When Intermediate Distributions are Absent

We focus on the problem of domain adaptation when the goal is shifting the model towards the target distribution, rather than learning domain invariant representations. It has been shown that under the following two assumptions: (a) access to samples from intermediate distributions, and (b) samples being annotated with the amount of change from the source distribution, self-training can be successfully applied on gradually shifted samples to adapt the model toward the target distribution. We hypothesize having (a) is enough to enable iterative self-training to slowly adapt the model to the target distribution, by making use of an implicit curriculum. In the case where (a) does not hold, we observe that iterative self-training falls short. We propose GIFT, a method that creates virtual samples from intermediate distributions by interpolating representations of examples from source and target domains. We evaluate an iterative-self-training method on datasets with natural distribution shifts, and show that when applied on top of other domain adaptation methods, it improves the performance of the model on the target dataset. We run an analysis on a synthetic dataset to show that in the presence of (a) iterative-self-training naturally forms a curriculum of samples. Furthermore, we show that when (a) does not hold, GIFT performs better than iterative self-training.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Colorization Transformer

We present the Colorization Transformer, a novel approach for diverse high fidelity image colorization based on self-attention. Given a grayscale image, the colorization proceeds in three steps. We first use a conditional autoregressive transformer to produce a low resolution coarse coloring of the grayscale image. Our architecture adopts conditional transformer layers to effectively condition grayscale input. Two subsequent fully parallel networks upsample the coarse colored low resolution image into a finely colored high resolution image. Sampling from the Colorization Transformer produces diverse colorings whose fidelity outperforms the previous state-of-the-art on colorising ImageNet based on FID results and based on a human evaluation in a Mechanical Turk test. Remarkably, in more than 60% of cases human evaluators prefer the highest rated among three generated colorings over the ground truth. The code and pre-trained checkpoints for Colorization Transformer are publicly available at https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/coltran

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Towards Causal Representation Learning

The two fields of machine learning and graphical causality arose and developed separately. However, there is now cross-pollination and increasing interest in both fields to benefit from the advances of the other. In the present paper, we review fundamental concepts of causal inference and relate them to crucial open problems of machine learning, including transfer and generalization, thereby assaying how causality can contribute to modern machine learning research. This also applies in the opposite direction: we note that most work in causality starts from the premise that the causal variables are given. A central problem for AI and causality is, thus, causal representation learning, the discovery of high-level causal variables from low-level observations. Finally, we delineate some implications of causality for machine learning and propose key research areas at the intersection of both communities.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Deep Learning Based Text Classification: A Comprehensive Review

Deep learning based models have surpassed classical machine learning based approaches in various text classification tasks, including sentiment analysis, news categorization, question answering, and natural language inference. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of more than 150 deep learning based models for text classification developed in recent years, and discuss their technical contributions, similarities, and strengths. We also provide a summary of more than 40 popular datasets widely used for text classification. Finally, we provide a quantitative analysis of the performance of different deep learning models on popular benchmarks, and discuss future research directions.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2020

A Spectral Energy Distance for Parallel Speech Synthesis

Speech synthesis is an important practical generative modeling problem that has seen great progress over the last few years, with likelihood-based autoregressive neural models now outperforming traditional concatenative systems. A downside of such autoregressive models is that they require executing tens of thousands of sequential operations per second of generated audio, making them ill-suited for deployment on specialized deep learning hardware. Here, we propose a new learning method that allows us to train highly parallel models of speech, without requiring access to an analytical likelihood function. Our approach is based on a generalized energy distance between the distributions of the generated and real audio. This spectral energy distance is a proper scoring rule with respect to the distribution over magnitude-spectrograms of the generated waveform audio and offers statistical consistency guarantees. The distance can be calculated from minibatches without bias, and does not involve adversarial learning, yielding a stable and consistent method for training implicit generative models. Empirically, we achieve state-of-the-art generation quality among implicit generative models, as judged by the recently-proposed cFDSD metric. When combining our method with adversarial techniques, we also improve upon the recently-proposed GAN-TTS model in terms of Mean Opinion Score as judged by trained human evaluators.

eess.AS↗

arXiv2020

MetNet: A Neural Weather Model for Precipitation Forecasting

Weather forecasting is a long standing scientific challenge with direct social and economic impact. The task is suitable for deep neural networks due to vast amounts of continuously collected data and a rich spatial and temporal structure that presents long range dependencies. We introduce MetNet, a neural network that forecasts precipitation up to 8 hours into the future at the high spatial resolution of 1 km$^2$ and at the temporal resolution of 2 minutes with a latency in the order of seconds. MetNet takes as input radar and satellite data and forecast lead time and produces a probabilistic precipitation map. The architecture uses axial self-attention to aggregate the global context from a large input patch corresponding to a million square kilometers. We evaluate the performance of MetNet at various precipitation thresholds and find that MetNet outperforms Numerical Weather Prediction at forecasts of up to 7 to 8 hours on the scale of the continental United States.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Axial Attention in Multidimensional Transformers

We propose Axial Transformers, a self-attention-based autoregressive model for images and other data organized as high dimensional tensors. Existing autoregressive models either suffer from excessively large computational resource requirements for high dimensional data, or make compromises in terms of distribution expressiveness or ease of implementation in order to decrease resource requirements. Our architecture, by contrast, maintains both full expressiveness over joint distributions over data and ease of implementation with standard deep learning frameworks, while requiring reasonable memory and computation and achieving state-of-the-art results on standard generative modeling benchmarks. Our models are based on axial attention, a simple generalization of self-attention that naturally aligns with the multiple dimensions of the tensors in both the encoding and the decoding settings. Notably the proposed structure of the layers allows for the vast majority of the context to be computed in parallel during decoding without introducing any independence assumptions. This semi-parallel structure goes a long way to making decoding from even a very large Axial Transformer broadly applicable. We demonstrate state-of-the-art results for the Axial Transformer on the ImageNet-32 and ImageNet-64 image benchmarks as well as on the BAIR Robotic Pushing video benchmark. We open source the implementation of Axial Transformers.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

Bayesian Inference for Large Scale Image Classification

Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of uncertainty that can enhance decision making, agent exploration and prediction fairness. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable Bayesian inference by generating samples from the posterior distribution over model parameters. Despite the theoretical advantages of Bayesian inference and the similarity between MCMC and optimization methods, the performance of sampling methods has so far lagged behind optimization methods for large scale deep learning tasks. We aim to fill this gap and introduce ATMC, an adaptive noise MCMC algorithm that estimates and is able to sample from the posterior of a neural network. ATMC dynamically adjusts the amount of momentum and noise applied to each parameter update in order to compensate for the use of stochastic gradients. We use a ResNet architecture without batch normalization to test ATMC on the Cifar10 benchmark and the large scale ImageNet benchmark and show that, despite the absence of batch normalization, ATMC outperforms a strong optimization baseline in terms of both classification accuracy and test log-likelihood. We show that ATMC is intrinsically robust to overfitting on the training data and that ATMC provides a better calibrated measure of uncertainty compared to the optimization baseline.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Generating High Fidelity Images with Subscale Pixel Networks and Multidimensional Upscaling

The unconditional generation of high fidelity images is a longstanding benchmark for testing the performance of image decoders. Autoregressive image models have been able to generate small images unconditionally, but the extension of these methods to large images where fidelity can be more readily assessed has remained an open problem. Among the major challenges are the capacity to encode the vast previous context and the sheer difficulty of learning a distribution that preserves both global semantic coherence and exactness of detail. To address the former challenge, we propose the Subscale Pixel Network (SPN), a conditional decoder architecture that generates an image as a sequence of sub-images of equal size. The SPN compactly captures image-wide spatial dependencies and requires a fraction of the memory and the computation required by other fully autoregressive models. To address the latter challenge, we propose to use Multidimensional Upscaling to grow an image in both size and depth via intermediate stages utilising distinct SPNs. We evaluate SPNs on the unconditional generation of CelebAHQ of size 256 and of ImageNet from size 32 to 256. We achieve state-of-the-art likelihood results in multiple settings, set up new benchmark results in previously unexplored settings and are able to generate very high fidelity large scale samples on the basis of both datasets.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2018

Efficient Neural Audio Synthesis

Sequential models achieve state-of-the-art results in audio, visual and textual domains with respect to both estimating the data distribution and generating high-quality samples. Efficient sampling for this class of models has however remained an elusive problem. With a focus on text-to-speech synthesis, we describe a set of general techniques for reducing sampling time while maintaining high output quality. We first describe a single-layer recurrent neural network, the WaveRNN, with a dual softmax layer that matches the quality of the state-of-the-art WaveNet model. The compact form of the network makes it possible to generate 24kHz 16-bit audio 4x faster than real time on a GPU. Second, we apply a weight pruning technique to reduce the number of weights in the WaveRNN. We find that, for a constant number of parameters, large sparse networks perform better than small dense networks and this relationship holds for sparsity levels beyond 96%. The small number of weights in a Sparse WaveRNN makes it possible to sample high-fidelity audio on a mobile CPU in real time. Finally, we propose a new generation scheme based on subscaling that folds a long sequence into a batch of shorter sequences and allows one to generate multiple samples at once. The Subscale WaveRNN produces 16 samples per step without loss of quality and offers an orthogonal method for increasing sampling efficiency.

cs.SD↗

arXiv2018

Tensor2Tensor for Neural Machine Translation

Tensor2Tensor is a library for deep learning models that is well-suited for neural machine translation and includes the reference implementation of the state-of-the-art Transformer model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Parallel WaveNet: Fast High-Fidelity Speech Synthesis

The recently-developed WaveNet architecture is the current state of the art in realistic speech synthesis, consistently rated as more natural sounding for many different languages than any previous system. However, because WaveNet relies on sequential generation of one audio sample at a time, it is poorly suited to today's massively parallel computers, and therefore hard to deploy in a real-time production setting. This paper introduces Probability Density Distillation, a new method for training a parallel feed-forward network from a trained WaveNet with no significant difference in quality. The resulting system is capable of generating high-fidelity speech samples at more than 20 times faster than real-time, and is deployed online by Google Assistant, including serving multiple English and Japanese voices.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Neural Machine Translation in Linear Time

We present a novel neural network for processing sequences. The ByteNet is a one-dimensional convolutional neural network that is composed of two parts, one to encode the source sequence and the other to decode the target sequence. The two network parts are connected by stacking the decoder on top of the encoder and preserving the temporal resolution of the sequences. To address the differing lengths of the source and the target, we introduce an efficient mechanism by which the decoder is dynamically unfolded over the representation of the encoder. The ByteNet uses dilation in the convolutional layers to increase its receptive field. The resulting network has two core properties: it runs in time that is linear in the length of the sequences and it sidesteps the need for excessive memorization. The ByteNet decoder attains state-of-the-art performance on character-level language modelling and outperforms the previous best results obtained with recurrent networks. The ByteNet also achieves state-of-the-art performance on character-to-character machine translation on the English-to-German WMT translation task, surpassing comparable neural translation models that are based on recurrent networks with attentional pooling and run in quadratic time. We find that the latent alignment structure contained in the representations reflects the expected alignment between the tokens.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2017

Parallel Multiscale Autoregressive Density Estimation

PixelCNN achieves state-of-the-art results in density estimation for natural images. Although training is fast, inference is costly, requiring one network evaluation per pixel; O(N) for N pixels. This can be sped up by caching activations, but still involves generating each pixel sequentially. In this work, we propose a parallelized PixelCNN that allows more efficient inference by modeling certain pixel groups as conditionally independent. Our new PixelCNN model achieves competitive density estimation and orders of magnitude speedup - O(log N) sampling instead of O(N) - enabling the practical generation of 512x512 images. We evaluate the model on class-conditional image generation, text-to-image synthesis, and action-conditional video generation, showing that our model achieves the best results among non-pixel-autoregressive density models that allow efficient sampling.

cs.CV↗