arXiv subjects

Nam H. Nguyen

Publications and source records attributed to Nam H. Nguyen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

FINESSE: An Agent-Based Simulator and Benchmark Dataset for Multimodal Financial Event Sequences

Machine learning research in financial services is limited by the scarcity of representative open-source datasets. Existing resources are often narrowly focused on a single modality or task and fail to reflect the structured, multimodal, and dynamic nature inherent to many problems in financial services. In this paper, we introduce FINESSE, a Financial Event Sequence Simulation Environment, an agent-based simulation framework for generating synthetic, structured datasets composed of multiple interdependent event streams. Each stream corresponds to a distinct financial behavior such as transactions, payments, account status changes, and policy interventions, each with unique action spaces, schemas and variable types. These streams are coupled through agents' latent evolving states, enabling the simulation of temporally rich interactions. We also introduce FINESSE-Bench, a benchmark dataset generated by the simulator, supporting four representative tasks: balance forecasting, transaction fraud detection, missed payment prediction, and next event prediction. We report baseline results using methods from time series forecasting, event sequence modeling, temporal graphs, and temporal point processes. We release the FINESSE framework, including the simulator and dataset to accelerate research on structured, multimodal event sequence modeling challenges in financial services.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Cross-Attention Calibrated Deduplication for Retrieval-Augmented Generation System

Common chunking strategies in Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems often create redundant chunks. These redundant chunks make the vector database bigger and slow down retrieval. A common fix is cosine-similarity thresholding. This method reduces each chunk to a single vector, then compares vectors using a similarity score. But a single vector can lose the fine-grained, token-level detail needed to tell a true duplicate apart from a chunk that just shares the same topic. We propose Cross-Attention Calibrated Deduplication (CACD). CACD checks each new chunk against an in-memory pool of chunks already kept, using a cross-encoder instead of a single pooled vector. This keeps token-level detail all the way to the final comparison. CACD combines three parts: the cross-encoder comparison itself, a New Information Score (NIS) that measures how much of a chunk is not explained by a candidate already kept, and a majority vote across several candidates rather than a single best match. NIS is calculated from the attention entropy of the cross-encoder. We tested CACD against five existing filtering methods, nine chunking strategies, and 18 configurations, all on the full SQuAD 1.1 validation set. In our experiments, CACD removes 9.75% of chunks on average. This drop rate is close to other semantic-level methods, and much higher than exact-match filters, which barely remove anything. In these experiments, CACD also processes each configuration in 51.0 seconds on average, about 27% faster than the strongest baseline, NERExact (69.6s), and about 7x faster than cosine-similarity filtering (356.7s). These results come from a single dataset, so we present them as an early comparison, not a general claim. Code for the baseline evaluation and for CACD is available at https://github.com/lehuyphuong/rag_bench and https://github.com/lehuyphuong/cacd_dedup.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Audited Conformal Prediction for Classification under Unknown Distribution Shift

We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification for a pretrained classification model deployed under unknown distribution shift. We propose Audited Conformal Prediction (ACP), a method that leverages a small labeled dataset from the target population to train an auxiliary audit model identifying inputs where the legacy model is likely to fail. By integrating the audit model's outputs into the conformal prediction framework, ACP produces prediction sets that guarantee marginal coverage while achieving substantially higher conditional coverage in practice than existing approaches. We develop and analyze two complementary integration strategies -- one targeting marginal coverage with improved conditional performance, the other providing explicit group-conditional coverage guarantees -- and establish theoretical guarantees for both. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets validate the method and illustrate trade-offs between prediction set size and conditional coverage.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Temporal Tokenization Strategies for Event Sequence Modeling with Large Language Models

Representing continuous time is a critical and under-explored challenge in modeling temporal event sequences with large language models (LLMs). Various strategies like byte-level representations or calendar tokens have been proposed. However, the optimal approach remains unclear, especially given the diverse statistical distributions of real-world event data, which range from smooth log-normal to discrete, spiky patterns. This paper presents a systematic empirical study of temporal tokenization for modeling event sequences with LLMs, comparing distinct encoding strategies: naive numeric strings, high-precision byte-level representations, human-semantic calendar tokens, classic uniform binning, and adaptive residual scalar quantization. We evaluate these strategies by fine-tuning LLMs on real-world datasets that exemplify these diverse distributions. Our analysis reveals that no single strategy is universally superior; instead, prediction performance depends heavily on aligning the tokenizer with the data's statistical properties, highlighting temporal tokenization as a critical yet often overlooked design dimension in LLM-based event modeling.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Evaluating LLM Simulators as Differentially Private Data Generators

LLM-based simulators offer a promising path for generating complex synthetic data where traditional differentially private (DP) methods struggle with high-dimensional user profiles. But can LLMs faithfully reproduce statistical distributions from DP-protected inputs? We evaluate this using PersonaLedger, an agentic financial simulator, seeded with DP synthetic personas derived from real user statistics. We find that PersonaLedger achieves promising fraud detection utility (AUC 0.70 at epsilon=1) but exhibits significant distribution drift due to systematic LLM biases--learned priors overriding input statistics for temporal and demographic features. These failure modes must be addressed before LLM-based methods can handle the richer user representations where they might otherwise excel.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Bridging the Divide: End-to-End Sequence-Graph Learning

Many real-world prediction tasks, particularly those involving entities such as customers or patients, involve both {sequential} and {relational} data. Each entity maintains its own sequence of events while simultaneously engaging in relationships with others. Existing methods in sequence and graph modeling often overlook one modality in favor of the other. We argue that these two facets should instead be integrated and learned jointly. We introduce BRIDGE, a unified end-to-end architecture that couples a sequence model with a graph module under a single objective, allowing gradients to flow across both components to learn task-aligned representations. To enable fine-grained interaction, we propose TOKENXATTN, a token-level cross-attention layer that facilitates message passing between specific events in neighboring sequences. Across two settings, relationship prediction and fraud detection, BRIDGE consistently outperforms static graph models, temporal graph methods, as well as sequence-only baselines on both ranking and classification metrics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Dynamic Tokenization via Reinforcement Patching: End-to-end Training and Zero-shot Transfer

Efficiently aggregating spatial or temporal horizons to acquire compact representations has become a unifying principle in modern deep learning models, yet learning data-adaptive representations for long-horizon sequence data, especially continuous sequences like time series, remains an open challenge. While fixed-size patching has improved scalability and performance, discovering variable-sized, data-driven patches end-to-end often forces models to rely on soft discretization, specific backbones, or heuristic rules. In this work, we propose Reinforcement Patching (ReinPatch), the first framework to jointly optimize a sequence patching policy and its downstream sequence backbone model using reinforcement learning. By formulating patch boundary placement as a discrete decision process optimized via Group Relative Policy Gradient (GRPG), ReinPatch bypasses the need for continuous relaxations and performs dynamic patching policy optimization in a natural manner. Moreover, our method allows strict enforcement of a desired compression rate, freeing the downstream backbone to scale efficiently, and naturally supports multi-level hierarchical modeling. We evaluate ReinPatch on time-series forecasting datasets, where it demonstrates compelling performance compared to state-of-the-art data-driven patching strategies. Furthermore, our detached design allows the patching module to be extracted as a standalone foundation patcher, providing the community with visual and empirical insights into the segmentation behaviors preferred by a purely performance-driven neural patching strategy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

TimeSqueeze: Dynamic Patching for Efficient Time Series Forecasting

Transformer-based time series foundation models face a fundamental trade-off in choice of tokenization: point-wise embeddings preserve temporal fidelity but scale poorly with sequence length, whereas fixed-length patching improves efficiency by imposing uniform boundaries that may disrupt natural transitions and blur informative local dynamics. In order to address these limitations, we introduce TimeSqueeze, a dynamic patching mechanism that adaptively selects patch boundaries within each sequence based on local signal complexity. TimeSqueeze first applies a lightweight state-space encoder to extract full-resolution point-wise features, then performs content-aware segmentation by allocating short patches to information-dense regions and long patches to smooth or redundant segments. This variable-resolution compression preserves critical temporal structure while substantially reducing the token sequence presented to the Transformer backbone. Specifically for large-scale pretraining, TimeSqueeze attains up to 20x faster convergence and 8x higher data efficiency compared to equivalent point-token baselines. Experiments across long-horizon forecasting benchmarks show that TimeSqueeze consistently outperforms comparable architectures that use either point-wise tokenization or fixed-size patching.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Learning Invariant Visual Representations for Planning with Joint-Embedding Predictive World Models

World models learned from high-dimensional visual observations allow agents to make decisions and plan directly in latent space, avoiding pixel-level reconstruction. However, recent latent predictive architectures (JEPAs), including the DINO world model (DINO-WM), display a degradation in test time robustness due to their sensitivity to "slow features". These include visual variations such as background changes and distractors that are irrelevant to the task being solved. We address this limitation by augmenting the predictive objective with a bisimulation encoder that enforces control-relevant state equivalence, mapping states with similar transition dynamics to nearby latent states while limiting contributions from slow features. We evaluate our model on a simple navigation task under different test-time background changes and visual distractors. Across all benchmarks, our model consistently improves robustness to slow features while operating in a reduced latent space, up to 10x smaller than that of DINO-WM. Moreover, our model is agnostic to the choice of pretrained visual encoder and maintains robustness when paired with DINOv2, SimDINOv2, and iBOT features.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Deep TPC: Temporal-Prior Conditioning for Time Series Forecasting

LLM-for-time series (TS) methods typically treat time shallowly, injecting positional or prompt-based cues once at the input of a largely frozen decoder, which limits temporal reasoning as this information degrades through the layers. We introduce Temporal-Prior Conditioning (TPC), which elevates time to a first-class modality that conditions the model at multiple depths. TPC attaches a small set of learnable time series tokens to the patch stream; at selected layers these tokens cross-attend to temporal embeddings derived from compact, human-readable temporal descriptors encoded by the same frozen LLM, then feed temporal context back via self-attention. This disentangles time series signal and temporal information while maintaining a low parameter budget. We show that by training only the cross-attention modules and explicitly disentangling time series signal and temporal information, TPC consistently outperforms both full fine-tuning and shallow conditioning strategies, achieving state-of-the-art performance in long-term forecasting across diverse datasets. Code available at: https://github.com/fil-mp/Deep_tpc

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Integrating Sequential and Relational Modeling for User Events: Datasets and Prediction Tasks

User event modeling plays a central role in many machine learning applications, with use cases spanning e-commerce, social media, finance, cybersecurity, and other domains. User events can be broadly categorized into personal events, which involve individual actions, and relational events, which involve interactions between two users. These two types of events are typically modeled separately, using sequence-based methods for personal events and graph-based methods for relational events. Despite the need to capture both event types in real-world systems, prior work has rarely considered them together. This is often due to the convenient simplification that user behavior can be adequately represented by a single formalization, either as a sequence or a graph. To address this gap, there is a need for public datasets and prediction tasks that explicitly incorporate both personal and relational events. In this work, we introduce a collection of such datasets, propose a unified formalization, and empirically show that models benefit from incorporating both event types. Our results also indicate that current methods leave a notable room for improvements. We release these resources to support further research in unified user event modeling and encourage progress in this direction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Scaling-laws for Large Time-series Models

Scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) have provided useful guidance in training ever larger models for predictable performance gains. Time series forecasting shares a similar sequential structure to language, and is amenable to large-scale transformer architectures. Here we show that foundational decoder-only time series transformer models exhibit analogous scaling-behavior to LLMs, with architectural details (aspect ratio and number of heads) having a minimal effect over broad ranges. We assemble a large corpus of heterogenous time series data on which to train, and establish for the first time power-law scaling with parameter count, dataset size, and training compute, spanning five orders of magnitude.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

VITRO: Vocabulary Inversion for Time-series Representation Optimization

Although LLMs have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in processing and generating textual data, their pre-trained vocabularies are ill-suited for capturing the nuanced temporal dynamics and patterns inherent in time series. The discrete, symbolic nature of natural language tokens, which these vocabularies are designed to represent, does not align well with the continuous, numerical nature of time series data. To address this fundamental limitation, we propose VITRO. Our method adapts textual inversion optimization from the vision-language domain in order to learn a new time series per-dataset vocabulary that bridges the gap between the discrete, semantic nature of natural language and the continuous, numerical nature of time series data. We show that learnable time series-specific pseudo-word embeddings represent time series data better than existing general language model vocabularies, with VITRO-enhanced methods achieving state-of-the-art performance in long-term forecasting across most datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Tiny Time Mixers (TTMs): Fast Pre-trained Models for Enhanced Zero/Few-Shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Series

Large pre-trained models excel in zero/few-shot learning for language and vision tasks but face challenges in multivariate time series (TS) forecasting due to diverse data characteristics. Consequently, recent research efforts have focused on developing pre-trained TS forecasting models. These models, whether built from scratch or adapted from large language models (LLMs), excel in zero/few-shot forecasting tasks. However, they are limited by slow performance, high computational demands, and neglect of cross-channel and exogenous correlations. To address this, we introduce Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a compact model (starting from 1M parameters) with effective transfer learning capabilities, trained exclusively on public TS datasets. TTM, based on the light-weight TSMixer architecture, incorporates innovations like adaptive patching, diverse resolution sampling, and resolution prefix tuning to handle pre-training on varied dataset resolutions with minimal model capacity. Additionally, it employs multi-level modeling to capture channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning. TTM outperforms existing popular benchmarks in zero/few-shot forecasting by (4-40%), while reducing computational requirements significantly. Moreover, TTMs are lightweight and can be executed even on CPU-only machines, enhancing usability and fostering wider adoption in resource-constrained environments. The model weights for reproducibility and research use are available at https://huggingface.co/ibm/ttm-research-r2/, while enterprise-use weights under the Apache license can be accessed as follows: the initial TTM-Q variant at https://huggingface.co/ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r1, and the latest variants (TTM-B, TTM-E, TTM-A) weights are available at https://huggingface.co/ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r2.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

AutoMixer for Improved Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting on Business and IT Observability Data

The efficiency of business processes relies on business key performance indicators (Biz-KPIs), that can be negatively impacted by IT failures. Business and IT Observability (BizITObs) data fuses both Biz-KPIs and IT event channels together as multivariate time series data. Forecasting Biz-KPIs in advance can enhance efficiency and revenue through proactive corrective measures. However, BizITObs data generally exhibit both useful and noisy inter-channel interactions between Biz-KPIs and IT events that need to be effectively decoupled. This leads to suboptimal forecasting performance when existing multivariate forecasting models are employed. To address this, we introduce AutoMixer, a time-series Foundation Model (FM) approach, grounded on the novel technique of channel-compressed pretrain and finetune workflows. AutoMixer leverages an AutoEncoder for channel-compressed pretraining and integrates it with the advanced TSMixer model for multivariate time series forecasting. This fusion greatly enhances the potency of TSMixer for accurate forecasts and also generalizes well across several downstream tasks. Through detailed experiments and dashboard analytics, we show AutoMixer's capability to consistently improve the Biz-KPI's forecasting accuracy (by 11-15\%) which directly translates to actionable business insights.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

ST-MLP: A Cascaded Spatio-Temporal Linear Framework with Channel-Independence Strategy for Traffic Forecasting

The criticality of prompt and precise traffic forecasting in optimizing traffic flow management in Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) has drawn substantial scholarly focus. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have been lauded for their adaptability to road graph structures. Yet, current research on STGNNs architectures often prioritizes complex designs, leading to elevated computational burdens with only minor enhancements in accuracy. To address this issue, we propose ST-MLP, a concise spatio-temporal model solely based on cascaded Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) modules and linear layers. Specifically, we incorporate temporal information, spatial information and predefined graph structure with a successful implementation of the channel-independence strategy - an effective technique in time series forecasting. Empirical results demonstrate that ST-MLP outperforms state-of-the-art STGNNs and other models in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. Our finding encourages further exploration of more concise and effective neural network architectures in the field of traffic forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches which are served as input tokens to Transformer; (ii) channel-independence where each channel contains a single univariate time series that shares the same embedding and Transformer weights across all the series. Patching design naturally has three-fold benefit: local semantic information is retained in the embedding; computation and memory usage of the attention maps are quadratically reduced given the same look-back window; and the model can attend longer history. Our channel-independent patch time series Transformer (PatchTST) can improve the long-term forecasting accuracy significantly when compared with that of SOTA Transformer-based models. We also apply our model to self-supervised pre-training tasks and attain excellent fine-tuning performance, which outperforms supervised training on large datasets. Transferring of masked pre-trained representation on one dataset to others also produces SOTA forecasting accuracy. Code is available at: https://github.com/yuqinie98/PatchTST.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Edge of Infinity: The Clash between Edge Effect and Infinity Assumption for the Distribution of Charge on a Conducting Plate

We re-examine a familiar problem given in introductory physics courses, about determining the induced charge distribution on an uncharged ``infinitely-large'' conducting plate when placing parallel to it a uniform charged dielectric plate of the same size. We show that, no matter how large the plates are, the edge effect will always be strong enough to influence the charge distribution deep in the central region, which totally destroyed the infinity assumption (that the surface charge densities on the two sides are uniform and of opposite magnitudes). For a more detailed analysis, we solve Poisson's equation for a similar setting in two-dimensional space and obtain the exact charge distribution, helping us to understand what happens how charge distributes at the central, the asymptotic, and the edge regions.

physics.class-ph↗