arXiv subjects

Nancy Flournoy

Publications and source records attributed to Nancy Flournoy.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Maximum Likelihood Estimation under the Emax Model: Existence, Geometry and Efficiency

This study focuses on the estimation of the Emax dose-response model, a widely utilized framework in clinical trials, agriculture, and environmental experiments. Existing challenges in obtaining maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for model parameters are often ascribed to computational issues but, in reality, stem from the absence of a MLE. Our contribution provides a new understanding and control of all the experimental situations that practitioners might face, guiding them in the estimation process. We derive the exact MLE for a three-point experimental design and we identify the two scenarios where the MLE fails. To address these challenges, we propose utilizing Firth's modified score, providing its analytical expression as a function of the experimental design. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate that, in one of the problematic cases, the Firth modification yields a finite estimate. For the remaining case, we introduce a design-augmentation strategy akin to a hypothesis test.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

The Cost of Sequential Adaptation and the Lower Bound for Mean Squared Error

Informative interim adaptations lead to random sample sizes. The random sample size becomes a component of the sufficient statistic and estimation based solely on observed samples or on the likelihood function does not use all available statistical evidence. The total Fisher Information (FI) is decomposed into the design FI and a conditional-on-design FI. The FI unspent by the interim adaptation is used to determine the lower mean squared error in post-adaptation estimation. Theoretical results are illustrated with simple normal samples collected according to a two-stage design with a possibility of early stopping.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Coping with Information Loss and the Use of Auxiliary Sources of Data: A Report from the NISS Ingram Olkin Forum Series on Unplanned Clinical Trial Disruptions

Clinical trials disruption has always represented a non negligible part of the ending of interventional studies. While the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to an impressive and unprecedented initiation of clinical research, it has also led to considerable disruption of clinical trials in other disease areas, with around 80% of non-COVID-19 trials stopped or interrupted during the pandemic. In many cases the disrupted trials will not have the planned statistical power necessary to yield interpretable results. This paper describes methods to compensate for the information loss arising from trial disruptions by incorporating additional information available from auxiliary data sources. The methods described include the use of auxiliary data on baseline and early outcome data available from the trial itself and frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the incorporation of information from external data sources. The methods are illustrated by application to the analysis of artificial data based on the Primary care pediatrics Learning Activity Nutrition (PLAN) study, a clinical trial assessing a diet and exercise intervention for overweight children, that was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We show how all of the methods proposed lead to an increase in precision relative to use of complete case data only.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Estimands and their Estimators for Clinical Trials Impacted by the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Report from the NISS Ingram Olkin Forum Series on Unplanned Clinical Trial Disruptions

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect the conduct of clinical trials globally. Complications may arise from pandemic-related operational challenges such as site closures, travel limitations and interruptions to the supply chain for the investigational product, or from health-related challenges such as COVID-19 infections. Some of these complications lead to unforeseen intercurrent events in the sense that they affect either the interpretation or the existence of the measurements associated with the clinical question of interest. In this article, we demonstrate how the ICH E9(R1) Addendum on estimands and sensitivity analyses provides a rigorous basis to discuss potential pandemic-related trial disruptions and to embed these disruptions in the context of study objectives and design elements. We introduce several hypothetical estimand strategies and review various causal inference and missing data methods, as well as a statistical method that combines unbiased and possibly biased estimators for estimation. To illustrate, we describe the features of a stylized trial, and how it may have been impacted by the pandemic. This stylized trial will then be re-visited by discussing the changes to the estimand and the estimator to account for pandemic disruptions. Finally, we outline considerations for designing future trials in the context of unforeseen disruptions.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Most Powerful Test Sequences with Early Stopping Options

Sequential likelihood ratio testing is found to be most powerful in sequential studies with early stopping rules when grouped data come from the one-parameter exponential family. First, to obtain this elusive result, the probability measure of a group sequential design is constructed with support for all possible outcome events, as is useful for designing an experiment prior to having data. This construction identifies impossible events that are not part of the support. The overall probability distribution is dissected into stage specific components. These components are sub-densities of interim test statistics first described by Armitage, McPherson and Rowe (1969) that are commonly used to create stopping boundaries given an $α$-spending function and a set of interim analysis times. Likelihood expressions conditional on reaching a stage are given to connect pieces of the probability anatomy together. The reduction of the support caused by the adoption of an early stopping rule induces sequential truncation (not nesting) in the probability distributions of possible events. Multiple testing induces mixtures on the adapted support. Even asymptotic distributions of inferential statistics are mixtures of truncated distributions. In contrast to the classical result on local asymptotic normality (Le Cam 1960), statistics that are asymptotically normal without stopping options have asymptotic distributions that are mixtures of truncated normal distributions under local alternatives with stopping options; under fixed alternatives, asymptotic distributions of test statistics are degenerate.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

The Effects of Adaptation on Inference for Non-Linear Regression Models with Normal Errors

This work studies the properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a non-linear model with Gaussian errors and multidimensional parameter. The observations are collected in a two-stage experimental design and are dependent since the second stage design is determined by the observations at the first stage; the MLE maximizes the total likelihood. Differently from the most of the literature, the first stage sample size is small, and hence asymptotic approximation is used only in the second stage. It is proved that the MLE is consistent and that its asymptotic distribution is a specific Gaussian mixture, via stable convergence. Finally, a simulation study is provided in the case of a dose-response Emax model.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Effect of Interim Adaptations in Group Sequential Designs

This manuscript investigates unconditional and conditional-on-stopping maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), information measures and information loss associated with conditioning in group sequential designs (GSDs). The possibility of early stopping brings truncation to the distributional form of MLEs; sequentially, GSD decisions eliminate some events from the sample space. Multiple testing induces mixtures on the adapted sample space. Distributions of MLEs are mixtures of truncated distributions. Test statistics that are asymptotically normal without GSD, have asymptotic distributions, under GSD, that are non-normal mixtures of truncated normal distributions under local alternatives; under fixed alternatives, asymptotic distributions of test statistics are degenerate. Estimation of various statistical quantities such as information, information fractions, and confidence intervals should account for the effect of planned adaptations. Calculation of adapted information fractions requires substantial computational effort. Therefore, a new GSD is proposed in which stage-specific sample sizes are fully determined by desired operational characteristics, and calculation of information fractions is not needed.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Random Norming Aids Analysis of Non-linear Regression Models with Sequential Informative Dose Selection

A two-stage adaptive optimal design is an attractive option for increasing the efficiency of clinical trials. In these designs, based on interim data, the locally optimal dose is chosen for further exploration, which induces dependencies between data from the two stages. When the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is used under nonlinear regression models with independent normal errors in a pilot study where the first stage sample size is fixed, and the second stage sample size is large, the Fisher information fails to normalize the estimator adequately asymptotically, because of dependencies. In this situation, we present three alternative random information measures and show that they provide better normalization of the MLE asymptotically. The performance of random information measures is investigated in simulation studies, and the results suggest that the observed information performs best when the sample size is small.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Centered Isotonic Regression: Point and Interval Estimation for Dose-Response Studies

Univariate isotonic regression (IR) has been used for nonparametric estimation in dose-response and dose-finding studies. One undesirable property of IR is the prevalence of piecewise-constant stretches in its estimates, whereas the dose-response function is usually assumed to be strictly increasing. We propose a simple modification to IR, called centered isotonic regression (CIR). CIR's estimates are strictly increasing in the interior of the dose range. In the absence of monotonicity violations, CIR and IR both return the original observations. Numerical examination indicates that for sample sizes typical of dose-response studies and with realistic dose-response curves, CIR provides a substantial reduction in estimation error compared with IR when monotonicity violations occur. We also develop analytical interval estimates for IR and CIR, with good coverage behavior. An R package implements these point and interval estimates.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2009

Asymptotics in response-adaptive designs generated by a two-color, randomly reinforced urn

This paper illustrates asymptotic properties for a response-adaptive design generated by a two-color, randomly reinforced urn model. The design considered is optimal in the sense that it assigns patients to the best treatment, with probability converging to one. An approach to show the joint asymptotic normality of the estimators of the mean responses to the treatments is provided in spite of the fact that allocation proportions converge to zero and one. Results on the rate of convergence of the number of patients assigned to each treatment are also obtained. Finally, we study the asymptotic behavior of a suitable test statistic.

math.ST↗