arXiv subjects

Naoki Koshimoto

Publications and source records attributed to Naoki Koshimoto.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

New Giant Planet beyond the Snow Line for an Extended MOA Exoplanet Microlens Sample

Characterizing a planet detected by microlensing is hard if the planetary signal is weak or the lens-source relative trajectory is far from caustics. However, statistical analyses of planet demography must include those planets to accurately determine occurrence rates. As part of a systematic modeling effort in the context of a $>10$-year retrospective analysis of MOA's survey observations to build an extended MOA statistical sample, we analyze the light curve of the planetary microlensing event MOA-2014-BLG-472. This event provides weak constraints on the physical parameters of the lens, as a result of a planetary anomaly occurring at low magnification in the light curve. We use a Bayesian analysis to estimate the properties of the planet, based on a refined Galactic model and the assumption that all Milky Way's stars have an equal planet-hosting probability. We find that a lens consisting of a $1.9^{+2.2}_{-1.2}\,\mathrm{M}_\mathrm{J}$ giant planet orbiting a $0.31^{+0.36}_{-0.19}\,\mathrm{M}_\odot$ host at a projected separation of $0.75\pm0.24\,\mathrm{au}$ is consistent with the observations and is most likely, based on the Galactic priors. The lens most probably lies in the Galactic bulge, at $7.2^{+0.6}_{-1.7}\mathrm{kpc}$ from Earth. The accurate measurement of the measured planet-to-host star mass ratio will be included in the next statistical analysis of cold planet demography detected by microlensing.

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arXiv2021

A Parametric Galactic Model toward the Galactic Bulge Based on Gaia and Microlensing Data

We developed a parametric Galactic model toward the Galactic bulge by fitting to spatial distributions of the Gaia DR2 disk velocity, VVV proper motion, BRAVA radial velocity, OGLE-III red clump star count, and OGLE-IV star count and microlens rate, optimized for use in microlensing studies. We include the asymmetric drift of Galactic disk stars and the dependence of velocity dispersion on Galactic location in the kinematic model, which has been ignored in most previous models used for microlensing studies. We show that our model predicts a microlensing parameter distribution significantly different from those typically used in previous studies. We estimate various fundamental model parameters for our Galaxy through our modeling, including the initial mass function (IMF) in the inner Galaxy. Combined constraints from star counts and the microlensing event timescale distribution from the OGLE-IV survey, in addition to a prior on the bulge stellar mass, enable us to successfully measure IMF slopes using a broken power-law form over a broad mass range, $α_{\rm bd}=0.22^{+0.20}_{-0.55}$ for $M<0.08\,M_{\odot}$, $α_{\rm ms} = 1.16^{+0.08}_{-0.15}$ for $0.08\,M_{\odot}\leq\,M<M_{\rm br}$, and $α_{\rm hm} = 2.32^{+0.14}_{-0.10}$ for $M\geq\,M_{\rm br}$, as well as a break mass at $M_{\rm br} = 0.90^{+0.05}_{-0.14} \, M_{\odot}$. This is significantly different from the Kroupa IMF for local stars, but similar to the Zoccali IMF measured from a bulge luminosity function. We also estimate the dark matter mass fraction in the bulge region of $28\pm7$\% which could be larger than a previous estimate. Because our model is purely parametric, it can be universally applied using the parameters provided in this paper.

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arXiv2021

OGLE-2018-BLG-1185b : A Low-Mass Microlensing Planet Orbiting a Low-Mass Dwarf

We report the analysis of planetary microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-1185, which was observed by a large number of ground-based telescopes and by the $Spitzer$ Space Telescope. The ground-based light curve indicates a low planet-host star mass ratio of $q = (6.9 \pm 0.2) \times 10^{-5}$, which is near the peak of the wide-orbit exoplanet mass-ratio distribution. We estimate the host star and planet masses with a Bayesian analysis using the measured angular Einstein radius under the assumption that stars of all masses have an equal probability to host this planet. The flux variation observed by $Spitzer$ was marginal, but still places a constraint on the microlens parallax. Imposing a conservative constraint that this flux variation should be $Δf_{\rm Spz} < 4$ instrumental flux units indicates a host mass of $M_{\rm host} = 0.37^{+0.35}_{-0.21}\ M_\odot$ and a planet mass of $m_{\rm p} = 8.4^{+7.9}_{-4.7}\ M_\oplus$. A Bayesian analysis including the full parallax constraint from $Spitzer$ suggests smaller host star and planet masses of $M_{\rm host} = 0.091^{+0.064}_{-0.018}\ M_\odot$ and $m_{\rm p} = 2.1^{+1.5}_{-0.4}\ M_\oplus$, respectively. Future high-resolution imaging observations with $HST$ or ELTs could distinguish between these two scenarios and help to reveal the planetary system properties in more detail.

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arXiv2021

An Earth-mass Planet in a Time of Covid-19: KMT-2020-BLG-0414Lb

We report the discovery of KMT-2020-BLG-0414Lb, with a planet-to-host mass ratio $q_2 = 0.9$--$1.2 \times 10^{-5} = 3$--$4~q_{\oplus}$ at $1σ$, which is the lowest mass-ratio microlensing planet to date. Together with two other recent discoveries ($4 \lesssim q/q_\oplus \lesssim 6$), it fills out the previous empty sector at the bottom of the triangular $(\log s, \log q)$ diagram, where $s$ is the planet-host separation in units of the angular Einstein radius $θ_{\rm E}$. Hence, these discoveries call into question the existence, or at least the strength, of the break in the mass-ratio function that was previously suggested to account for the paucity of very low-$q$ planets. Due to the extreme magnification of the event, $A_{\rm max}\sim 1450$ for the underlying single-lens event, its light curve revealed a second companion with $q_3 \sim 0.05$ and $|\log s_3| \sim 1$, i.e., a factor $\sim 10$ closer to or farther from the host in projection. The measurements of the microlens parallax $π_{\rm E}$ and the angular Einstein radius $θ_{\rm E}$ allow estimates of the host, planet, and second companion masses, $(M_1, M_2, M_3) \sim (0.3M_{\odot}, 1.0M_{\oplus}, 17M_{J})$, the planet and second companion projected separations, $(a_{\perp,2}, a_{\perp,3}) \sim (1.5, 0.15~{\rm or}~15)$~au, and system distance $D_{\rm L} \sim 1$ kpc. The lens could account for most or all of the blended light ($I \sim 19.3$) and so can be studied immediately with high-resolution photometric and spectroscopic observations that can further clarify the nature of the system. The planet was found as part of a new program of high-cadence follow-up observations of high-magnification events. The detection of this planet, despite the considerable difficulties imposed by Covid-19 (two KMT sites and OGLE were shut down), illustrates the potential utility of this program.

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arXiv2021

OGLE-2017-BLG-1049: Another giant planet microlensing event

We report a giant exoplanet discovery in the microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-1049, which is a planet-host star mass ratio of $q=9.53\pm0.39\times10^{-3}$ and has a caustic crossing feature in the Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) observations. The caustic crossing feature yields an angular Einstein radius of $θ_{\rm E}=0.52 \pm 0.11\ {\rm mas}$. However, the microlens parallax is not measured because of the time scale of the event $t_{\rm E}\simeq 29\ {\rm days}$, which is not long enough in this case to determine the microlens parallax. Thus, we perform a Bayesian analysis to estimate physical quantities of the lens system. From this, we find that the lens system has a star with mass $M_{\rm h}=0.55^{+0.36}_{-0.29} \ M_{\odot}$ hosting a giant planet with $M_{\rm p}=5.53^{+3.62}_{-2.87} \ M_{\rm Jup}$, at a distance of $D_{\rm L}=5.67^{+1.11}_{-1.52}\ {\rm kpc}$. The projected star-planet separation in units of the Einstein radius $(θ_{\rm E})$ corresponding to the total mass of the lens system is $a_{\perp}=3.92^{+1.10}_{-1.32}\ \rm{au}$. This means that the planet is located beyond the snow line of the host. The relative lens-source proper motion is $μ_{\rm rel}\sim 7 \ \rm{mas \ yr^{-1}}$, thus the lens and source will be separated from each other within 10 years. Then the flux of the host star can be measured by a 30m class telescope with high-resolution imaging in the future, and thus its mass can be determined.

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arXiv2021

KMT-2019-BLG-0371 and the Limits of Bayesian Analysis

We show that the perturbation at the peak of the light curve of microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-0371 is explained by a model with a mass ratio between the host star and planet of $q \sim 0.08$. Due to the short event duration ($t_{\rm E} \sim 6.5\ $ days), the secondary object in this system could potentially be a massive giant planet. A Bayesian analysis shows that the system most likely consists of a host star with a mass $M_{\rm h} = 0.09^{+0.14}_{-0.05}M_{\odot}$ and a massive giant planet with a mass $M_{\rm p} = 7.70^{+11.34}_{-3.90}M_{\rm Jup}$. However, the interpretation of the secondary as a planet (i.e., as having $M_{\rm p} < 13 M_{\rm Jup}$) rests entirely on the Bayesian analysis. Motivated by this event, we conduct an investigation to determine which constraints meaningfully affect Bayesian analyses for microlensing events. We find that the masses inferred from such a Bayesian analysis are determined almost entirely by the measured value of $θ_{\rm E}$ and are relatively insensitive to other factors such as the direction of the event $(\ell, b)$, the lens-source relative proper motion $μ_{\rm rel}$, or the specific Galactic model prior.

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arXiv2021

OGLE-2019-BLG-0960Lb: The Smallest Microlensing Planet

We report the analysis of OGLE-2019-BLG-0960, which contains the smallest mass-ratio microlensing planet found to date (q = 1.2--1.6 x 10^{-5} at 1-sigma). Although there is substantial uncertainty in the satellite parallax measured by Spitzer, the measurement of the annual parallax effect combined with the finite source effect allows us to determine the mass of the host star (M_L = 0.3--0.6 M_Sun), the mass of its planet (m_p = 1.4--3.1 M_Earth), the projected separation between the host and planet (a_perp = 1.2--2.3 au), and the distance to the lens system (D_L = 0.6--1.2 kpc). The lens is plausibly the blend, which could be checked with adaptive optics observations. As the smallest planet clearly below the break in the mass-ratio function (Suzuki et al. 2016; Jung et al. 2019), it demonstrates that current experiments are powerful enough to robustly measure the slope of the mass-ratio function below that break. We find that the cross-section for detecting small planets is maximized for planets with separations just outside of the boundary for resonant caustics and that sensitivity to such planets can be maximized by intensively monitoring events whenever they are magnified by a factor A > 5. Finally, an empirical investigation demonstrates that most planets showing a degeneracy between (s > 1) and (s < 1) solutions are not in the regime (|log s| >> 0) for which the "close"/"wide" degeneracy was derived. This investigation suggests a link between the "close"/"wide" and "inner/outer" degeneracies and also that the symmetry in the lens equation goes much deeper than symmetries uncovered for the limiting cases.

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arXiv2021

MOA-2009-BLG-319Lb: A Sub-Saturn Planet Inside the Predicted Mass Desert

We present an adaptive optics (AO) analysis of images from the Keck-II telescope NIRC2 instrument of the planetary microlensing event MOA-2009-BLG-319. The $\sim$10 year baseline between the event and the Keck observations allows the planetary host star to be detected at a separation of $66.5\pm 1.7\,$mas from the source star, consistent with the light curve model prediction. The combination of the host star brightness and light curve parameters yield host star and planet masses of M_host = 0.514 $\pm$ 0.063M_Sun and m_p = 66.0 $\pm$ 8.1M_Earth at a distance of $D_L = 7.0 \pm 0.7\,$kpc. The star-planet projected separation is $2.03 \pm 0.21\,$AU. The planet-star mass ratio of this system, $q = (3.857 \pm 0.029)\times 10^{-4}$, places it in the predicted "planet desert" at $10^{-4} < q < 4\times 10^{-4}$ according to the runaway gas accretion scenario of the core accretion theory. Seven of the 30 planets in the Suzuki et al. (2016) sample fall in this mass ratio range, and this is the third with a measured host mass. All three of these host stars have masses of 0.5 $\leq$ M_host/M_Sun $\leq$ 0.7, which implies that this predicted mass ratio gap is filled with planets that have host stars within a factor of two of 1M_Sun. This suggests that runaway gas accretion does not play a major role in determining giant planet masses for stars somewhat less massive than the Sun. Our analysis has been accomplished with a modified DAOPHOT code that has been designed to measure the brightness and positions of closely blended stars. This will aid in the development of the primary method that the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope mission will use to determine the masses of microlens planets and their hosts.

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arXiv2020

Revealing Short-period Exoplanets and Brown Dwarfs in the Galactic Bulge using the Microlensing Xallarap Effect with the \textit{Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope}

The \textit{Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope} (\textit{ Roman}) will provide an enormous number of microlensing light curves with much better photometric precisions than ongoing ground-based observations. Such light curves will enable us to observe high-order microlensing effects which have been previously difficult to detect. In this paper, we investigate \textit{Roman}'s potential to detect and characterize short-period planets and brown dwarfs (BDs) in source systems using the orbital motion of source stars, the so-called xallarap effect. We analytically estimate the measurement uncertainties of xallarap parameters using the Fisher matrix analysis. We show that the \textit{Roman} Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) can detect warm Jupiters with masses down to 0.5 $M_{\rm Jup}$ and orbital period of 30 days via the xallarap effect. Assuming a planetary frequency function from \citet{Cumming+2008}, we find \textit{Roman} will detect $\sim10$ hot and warm Jupiters and $\sim30$ close-in BDs around microlensed source stars during the microlensing survey. These detections are likely to be accompanied by the measurements of the companion's masses and orbital elements, which will aid in the study of the physical properties for close-in planet and BD populations in the Galactic bulge.

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arXiv2020

KMT-2019-BLG-0842Lb: A Cold Planet Below the Uranus/Sun Mass Ratio

We report the discovery of a cold planet with a very low planet/host mass ratio of $q=(4.09\pm0.27) \times 10^{-5}$, which is similar to the ratio of Uranus/Sun ($q=4.37 \times 10^{-5}$) in the Solar system. The Bayesian estimates for the host mass, planet mass, system distance, and planet-host projected separation are $M_{\rm host}=0.76\pm 0.40 M_\odot$, $M_{\rm planet}=10.3\pm 5.5 M_\oplus$, $D_{\rm L} = 3.3\pm1.3\,{\rm kpc}$, and $a_\perp = 3.3\pm 1.4\,{\rm au}$, respectively. The consistency of the color and brightness expected from the estimated lens mass and distance with those of the blend suggests the possibility that the most blended light comes from the planet host, and this hypothesis can be established if high resolution images are taken during the next (2020) bulge season. We discuss the importance of conducting optimized photometry and aggressive follow-up observations for moderately or very high magnification events to maximize the detection rate of planets with very low mass ratios.

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arXiv2020

MOA-2007-BLG-400 A Super-Jupiter Mass Planet Orbiting a Galactic BulgeK-dwarf Revealed by Keck Adaptive Optics Imaging

We present Keck/NIRC2 adaptive optics imaging of planetary microlensing event MOA-2007-BLG-400 that resolves the lens star system from the source. We find that the MOA-2007-BLG-400L planetary system consists of a $1.71\pm 0.27 M_{\rm Jup}$ planet orbiting a $0.69\pm 0.04M_{\odot}$ K-dwarf host star at a distance of $6.89\pm 0.77\,$kpc from the Sun. So, this planetary system probably resides in the Galactic bulge. The planet-host star projected separation is only weakly constrained due to the close-wide light curve degeneracy; the 2$σ$ projected separation range is 0.6--$7.2\,$AU. This host mass is at the top end of the range of masses predicted by a standard Bayesian analysis that assumes that all stars have an equal chance of hosting a star of the observed mass ratio. This and the similar result for event MOA-2013-BLG-220 suggests that more massive stars may be more likely to host planets with a mass ratio in the $0.002 < q < 0.004$ range that orbit beyond the snow line. These results also indicate the importance of host star mass measurements for exoplanets found by microlensing. The microlensing survey imaging data from NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (formerly WFIRST) mission will be doing mass measurements like this for a huge number of planetary events. This host lens is the highest contrast lens-source detected in microlensing mass measurement analysis (the lens being 10$\times$ fainter than the source). We present an improved method of calculating photometry and astrometry uncertainties based on the Jackknife method, which produces more accurate errors that are $\sim$$2.5 \times$ larger than previous estimates.

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arXiv2020

Revisiting MOA 2013 BLG-220L: A Solar-type star with a Cold super-Jupiter Companion

We present the analysis of high-resolution images of MOA-2013-BLG-220, taken with the Keck adaptive optics system 6 years after the initial observation, identifying the lens as a solar-type star hosting a super-Jupiter mass planet. The masses of planets and host-stars discovered by microlensing are often not determined from light curve data, while the star-planet mass-ratio and projected separation in units of Einstein ring radius are well measured. High-resolution follow-up observations after the lensing event is complete can resolve the source and lens. This allows direct measurements of flux, and the amplitude and direction of proper motion, giving strong constraints on the system parameters. Due to the high relative proper motion, $μ_{\rm rel,Geo} = 12.62\pm0.11$ mas/yr, the source and lens were resolved in 2019, with a separation of $77.1\pm0.5$ mas. Thus, we constrain the lens flux to $K_{\rm Keck,lens}= 17.92\pm0.02$. By combining constraints from the model and Keck flux, we find the lens mass to be $M_L = 0.88\pm0.05\ M_\odot$ at $D_L = 6.72\pm0.59$ kpc. With a mass-ratio of $q=(3.00\pm0.03)\times10^{-3}$ the planet's mass is determined to be $M_P = 2.74\pm0.17\ M_{J}$ at a separation of $r_\perp = 3.03\pm0.27$ AU. The lens mass is much higher than the prediction made by the Bayesian analysis that assumes all stars have an equal probability to host a planet of the measured mass ratio, and suggests that planets with mass ratios of a few 10$^{-3}$ are more common orbiting massive stars. This demonstrates the importance of high-resolution follow-up observations for testing theories like these.

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arXiv2020

Evidence of Systematic Errors in $Spitzer$ Microlens Parallax Measurements

The microlensing parallax campaign with the $Spitzer$ space telescope aims to measure masses and distances of microlensing events seen towards the Galactic bulge, with a focus on planetary microlensing events. The hope is to measure how the distribution of planets depends on position within the Galaxy. In this paper, we compare 50 microlens parallax measurements from the 2015 $Spitzer$ campaign to three different Galactic models commonly used in microlensing analyses, and we find that $\geq 74\%$ of these events have microlensing parallax values higher than the medians predicted by Galactic models. The Anderson-Darling tests indicate probabilities of $p_{\rm AD} < 6.6 \times 10^{-5}$ for these three Galactic models, while the binomial probability of such a large fraction of large microlensing parallax values is $< 4.6\times 10^{-4}$. Given that many $Spitzer$ light curves show evidence of large correlated errors, we conclude that this discrepancy is probably due to systematic errors in the $Spitzer$ photometry. We find formally acceptable probabilities of $p_{\rm AD} > 0.05$ for subsamples of events with bright source stars ($I_{\rm S} \leq 17.75$) or $Spitzer$ coverage of the light curve peak. This indicates that the systematic errors have a more serious influence on faint events, especially when the light curve peak is not covered by $Spitzer$. We find that multiplying an error bar renormalization factor of 2.2 by the reported error bars on the $Spitzer$ microlensing parallax measurements provides reasonable agreement with all three Galactic models. However, corrections to the uncertainties in the $Spitzer$ photometry itself are a more effective way to address the systematic errors.

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arXiv2020

One Planet or Two Planets? The Ultra-sensitive Extreme-magnification Microlensing Event KMT-2019-BLG-1953

We present the analysis of a very high-magnification ($A\sim 900$) microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-1953. A single-lens single-source (1L1S) model appears to approximately delineate the observed light curve, but the residuals from the model exhibit small but obvious deviations in the peak region. A binary lens (2L1S) model with a mass ratio $q\sim 2\times 10^{-3}$ improves the fits by $Δχ^2=181.8$, indicating that the lens possesses a planetary companion. From additional modeling by introducing an extra planetary lens component (3L1S model) and an extra source companion (2L2S model), it is found that the residuals from the 2L1S model further diminish, but claiming these interpretations is difficult due to the weak signals with $Δχ^2=16.0$ and $13.5$ for the 3L1S and 2L2L models, respectively. From a Bayesian analysis, we estimate that the host of the planets has a mass of $M_{\rm host}=0.31^{+0.37}_{-0.17}~M_\odot$ and that the planetary system is located at a distance of $D_{\rm L}=7.04^{+1.10}_{-1.33}~{\rm kpc}$ toward the Galactic center. The mass of the securely detected planet is $M_{\rm p}=0.64^{+0.76}_{-0.35}~M_{\rm J}$. The signal of the potential second planet could have been confirmed if the peak of the light curve had been more densely observed by followup observations, and thus the event illustrates the need for intensive followup observations for very high-magnification events even in the current generation of high-cadence surveys.

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arXiv2020

OGLE-2018-BLG-1269Lb: A Jovian Planet With A Bright, $I=16$ Host

We report the discovery of a planet in the microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-1269, with planet-host mass ratio $q \sim 6\times10^{-4}$, i.e., $0.6$ times smaller than the Jupiter/Sun mass ratio. Combined with the $Gaia$ parallax and proper motion, a strong one-dimensional constraint on the microlens parallax vector allows us to significantly reduce the uncertainties of lens physical parameters. A Bayesian analysis that ignores any information about light from the host yields that the planet is a cold giant $(M_{2} = 0.69_{-0.22}^{+0.44}\,M_{\rm J})$ orbiting a Sun-like star $(M_{1} = 1.13_{-0.35}^{+0.72}\,M_{\odot})$ at a distance of $D_{\rm L} = 2.56_{-0.62}^{+0.92}\,{\rm kpc}$. The projected planet-host separation is $a_{\perp} = 4.61_{-1.17}^{+1.70}\,{\rm au}$. Using {\it Gaia} astrometry, we show that the blended light lies $\lesssim 12\,$mas from the host and therefore must be either the host star or a stellar companion to the host. An isochrone analysis favors the former possibility at $>99.6\%$. The host is therefore a subgiant. For host metallicities in the range of $0.0 \leq {\rm [Fe/H]} \leq +0.3$, the host and planet masses are then in the range of $1.16 \leq M_{1}/M_{\odot} \leq 1.38$ and $0.74 \leq M_{2}/M_{\rm J} \leq 0.89$, respectively. Low host metallicities are excluded. The brightness and proximity of the lens make the event a strong candidate for spectroscopic followup both to test the microlensing solution and to further characterize the system.

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arXiv2020

OGLE-2017-BLG-0406: ${\it Spitzer}$ Microlens Parallax Reveals Saturn-mass Planet orbiting M-dwarf Host in the Inner Galactic Disk

We report the discovery and analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-0406, which was observed both from the ground and by the ${\it Spitzer}$ satellite in a solar orbit. At high magnification, the anomaly in the light curve was densely observed by ground-based-survey and follow-up groups, and it was found to be explained by a planetary lens with a planet/host mass ratio of $q=7.0 \times 10^{-4}$ from the light-curve modeling. The ground-only and ${\it Spitzer}$-"only" data each provide very strong one-dimensional (1-D) constraints on the 2-D microlens parallax vector $\bf{π_{\rm E}}$. When combined, these yield a precise measurement of $\bf{π_{\rm E}}$, and so of the masses of the host $M_{\rm host}=0.56\pm0.07\,M_\odot$ and planet $M_{\rm planet} = 0.41 \pm 0.05\,M_{\rm Jup}$. The system lies at a distance $D_{\rm L}=5.2 \pm 0.5 \ {\rm kpc}$ from the Sun toward the Galactic bulge, and the host is more likely to be a disk population star according to the kinematics of the lens. The projected separation of the planet from the host is $a_{\perp} = 3.5 \pm 0.3 \ {\rm au}$, i.e., just over twice the snow line. The Galactic-disk kinematics are established in part from a precise measurement of the source proper motion based on OGLE-IV data. By contrast, the ${\it Gaia}$ proper-motion measurement of the source suffers from a catastrophic $10\,σ$ error.

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arXiv2020

A Gas Giant Planet in the OGLE-2006-BLG-284L Stellar Binary System

We present the analysis of microlensing event OGLE-2006-BLG-284, which has a lens system that consists of two stars and a gas giant planet with a mass ratio of $q_p = (1.26\pm 0.19) \times 10^{-3}$ to the primary. The mass ratio of the two stars is $q_s = 0.289\pm 0.011$, and their projected separation is $s_s = 2.1\pm 0.7\,$AU, while the projected separation of the planet from the primary is $s_p = 2.2\pm 0.8\,$AU. For this lens system to have stable orbits, the three-dimensional separation of either the primary and secondary stars or the planet and primary star must be much larger than that these projected separations. Since we do not know which is the case, the system could include either a circumbinary or a circumstellar planet. Because there is no measurement of the microlensing parallax effect or lens system brightness, we can only make a rough Bayesian estimate of the lens system masses and brightness. We find host star and planet masses of $M_{L1} = 0.35^{+0.30}_{-0.20}\,M_\odot$, $M_{L2} = 0.10^{+0.09}_{-0.06}\,M_\odot$, and $m_p = 144^{+126}_{-82}\,M_\oplus$, and the $K$-band magnitude of the combined brightness of the host stars is $K_L = 19.7^{+0.7}_{-1.0}$. The separation between the lens and source system will be $\sim 90\,$mas in mid-2020, so it should be possible to detect the host system with follow-up adaptive optics or Hubble Space Telescope observations.

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arXiv2020

Bayesian Approach for Determining Microlens System Properties with High-Angular-Resolution Follow-up Imaging

We present the details of the Bayesian analysis on the planetary microlensing event MOA-2016-BLG-227, whose excess flux is likely due to a source/lens companion or an unrelated ambient star, as well as of the assumed prior distributions. Furthermore, we apply this method to four reported planetary events, MOA-2008-BLG-310, MOA-2011-BLG-293, OGLE-2012-BLG-0527, and OGLE-2012-BLG-0950, where adaptive optics observations have detected excess flux at the source star positions. For events with small angular Einstein radii, our lens mass estimates are more uncertain than those of previous analyses who assumed that the excess was due to the lens. Our predictions for MOA-2008-BLG-310 and OGLE-2012-BLG-0950 are consistent with recent results on these events obtained via Keck and Hubble Space Telescope observations when the source star is resolvable from the lens star. For events with small angular Einstein radii, we find that it is generally difficult to conclude whether the excess flux comes from the host star. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the lens star by measuring its proper motion relative to the source star to determine whether the excess flux comes from the lens star. Even without such measurements, our method can be used to statistically test the dependence of the planet-hosting probability on the stellar mass.

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