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Naoki Sakai

Publications and source records attributed to Naoki Sakai.

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Space-filling lattice designs for computer experiments

This paper investigates the construction of space-filling designs for computer experiments. The space-filling property is characterized by the covering and separation radii of a design, which are integrated through the unified criterion of quasi-uniformity. We focus on a special class of designs, known as quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) lattice point sets, and propose two construction algorithms. The first algorithm generates rank-1 lattice point sets as an approximation of quasi-uniform Kronecker sequences, where the generating vector is determined explicitly. As a byproduct of our analysis, we prove that this explicit point set achieves an isotropic discrepancy of $O(N^{-1/d})$. The second algorithm utilizes Korobov lattice point sets, employing the Lenstra--Lenstra--Lovász (LLL) basis reduction algorithm to identify the generating vector that ensures quasi-uniformity. Numerical experiments are provided to validate our theoretical claims regarding quasi-uniformity. Furthermore, we conduct empirical comparisons between various QMC point sets in the context of Gaussian process regression, showcasing the efficacy of the proposed designs for computer experiments.

stat.ME

Probabilistic Rainfall Estimation from Automotive Lidar

Robust sensing and perception in adverse weather conditions remain one of the biggest challenges for realizing reliable autonomous vehicle mobility services. Prior work has established that rainfall rate is a useful measure for the adversity of atmospheric weather conditions. This work presents a probabilistic hierarchical Bayesian model that infers rainfall rate from automotive lidar point cloud sequences with high accuracy and reliability. The model is a hierarchical mixture of experts model, or a probabilistic decision tree, with gating and expert nodes consisting of variational logistic and linear regression models. Experimental data used to train and evaluate the model is collected in a large-scale rainfall experiment facility from both stationary and moving vehicle platforms. The results show prediction accuracy comparable to the measurement resolution of a disdrometer, and the soundness and usefulness of the uncertainty estimation. The model achieves RMSE 2.42\,mm/h after filtering out uncertain predictions. The error is comparable to the mean rainfall rate change of 3.5\,mm/h between measurements. Model parameter studies show how predictive performance changes with tree depth, sampling duration, and crop box dimension. A second experiment demonstrates the predictability of higher rainfall above 300\,mm/h using a different lidar sensor, demonstrating sensor independence.

eess.SP