arXiv subjects

Naomi E. Leonard

Publications and source records attributed to Naomi E. Leonard.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2020

Active Control and Sustained Oscillations in actSIS Epidemic Dynamics

An actively controlled Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (actSIS) contagion model is presented for studying epidemic dynamics with continuous-time feedback control of infection rates. Our work is inspired by the observation that epidemics can be controlled through decentralized disease-control strategies such as quarantining, sheltering in place, social distancing, etc., where individuals actively modify their contact rates with others in response to observations of infection levels in the population. Accounting for a time lag in observations and categorizing individuals into distinct sub-populations based on their risk profiles, we show that the actSIS model manifests qualitatively different features as compared with the SIS model. In a homogeneous population of risk-averters, the endemic equilibrium is always reduced, although the transient infection level can exhibit overshoot or undershoot. In a homogeneous population of risk-tolerating individuals, the system exhibits bistability, which can also lead to reduced infection. For a heterogeneous population comprised of risk-tolerators and risk-averters, we prove conditions on model parameters for the existence of a Hopf bifurcation and sustained oscillations in the infected population.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Adaptive Susceptibility and Heterogeneity in Contagion Models on Networks

Contagious processes, such as spread of infectious diseases, social behaviors, or computer viruses, affect biological, social, and technological systems. Epidemic models for large populations and finite populations on networks have been used to understand and control both transient and steady-state behaviors. Typically it is assumed that after recovery from an infection, every agent will either return to its original susceptible state or acquire full immunity to reinfection. We study the network SIRI (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Infected) model, an epidemic model for the spread of contagious processes on a network of heterogeneous agents that can adapt their susceptibility to reinfection. The model generalizes existing models to accommodate realistic conditions in which agents acquire partial or compromised immunity after first exposure to an infection. We prove necessary and sufficient conditions on model parameters and network structure that distinguish four dynamic regimes: infection-free, epidemic, endemic, and bistable. For the bistable regime, which is not accounted for in traditional models, we show how there can be a rapid resurgent epidemic after what looks like convergence to an infection-free population. We use the model and its predictive capability to show how control strategies can be designed to mitigate problematic contagious behaviors.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Modeling Human Decision-making in Generalized Gaussian Multi-armed Bandits

We present a formal model of human decision-making in explore-exploit tasks using the context of multi-armed bandit problems, where the decision-maker must choose among multiple options with uncertain rewards. We address the standard multi-armed bandit problem, the multi-armed bandit problem with transition costs, and the multi-armed bandit problem on graphs. We focus on the case of Gaussian rewards in a setting where the decision-maker uses Bayesian inference to estimate the reward values. We model the decision-maker's prior knowledge with the Bayesian prior on the mean reward. We develop the upper credible limit (UCL) algorithm for the standard multi-armed bandit problem and show that this deterministic algorithm achieves logarithmic cumulative expected regret, which is optimal performance for uninformative priors. We show how good priors and good assumptions on the correlation structure among arms can greatly enhance decision-making performance, even over short time horizons. We extend to the stochastic UCL algorithm and draw several connections to human decision-making behavior. We present empirical data from human experiments and show that human performance is efficiently captured by the stochastic UCL algorithm with appropriate parameters. For the multi-armed bandit problem with transition costs and the multi-armed bandit problem on graphs, we generalize the UCL algorithm to the block UCL algorithm and the graphical block UCL algorithm, respectively. We show that these algorithms also achieve logarithmic cumulative expected regret and require a sub-logarithmic expected number of transitions among arms. We further illustrate the performance of these algorithms with numerical examples. NB: Appendix G included in this version details minor modifications that correct for an oversight in the previously-published proofs. The remainder of the text reflects the published work.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

In the Dance Studio: An Art and Engineering Exploration of Human Flocking

Flock Logic was developed as an art and engineering project to explore how the feedback laws used to model flocking translate when applied by dancers. The artistic goal was to create choreographic tools that leverage multi-agent system dynamics with designed feedback and interaction. The engineering goal was to provide insights and design principles for multi-agent systems, such as human crowds, animal groups and robotic networks, by examining what individual dancers do and what emerges at the group level. We describe our methods to create dance and investigate collective motion. We analyze video of an experiment in which dancers moved according to simple rules of cohesion and repulsion with their neighbors. Using the prescribed interaction protocol and tracked trajectories, we estimate the time-varying graph that defines who is responding to whom. We compute status of nodes in the graph and show the emergence of leaders. We discuss results and further directions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Parameter estimation in softmax decision-making models with linear objective functions

With an eye towards human-centered automation, we contribute to the development of a systematic means to infer features of human decision-making from behavioral data. Motivated by the common use of softmax selection in models of human decision-making, we study the maximum likelihood parameter estimation problem for softmax decision-making models with linear objective functions. We present conditions under which the likelihood function is convex. These allow us to provide sufficient conditions for convergence of the resulting maximum likelihood estimator and to construct its asymptotic distribution. In the case of models with nonlinear objective functions, we show how the estimator can be applied by linearizing about a nominal parameter value. We apply the estimator to fit the stochastic UCL (Upper Credible Limit) model of human decision-making to human subject data. We show statistically significant differences in behavior across related, but distinct, tasks.

math.OC↗

arXiv2006

Heterogeneous animal group models and their group-level alignment dynamics; an equation-free approach

We study coarse-grained (group-level) alignment dynamics of individual-based animal group models for {\it heterogeneous} populations consisting of informed (on preferred directions) and uninformed individuals. The orientation of each individual is characterized by an angle, whose dynamics are nonlinearly coupled with those of all the other individuals, with an explicit dependence on the difference between the individual's orientation and the instantaneous average direction. Choosing convenient coarse-grained variables (suggested by uncertainty quantification methods) that account for rapidly developing correlations during initial transients, we perform efficient computations of coarse-grained steady states and their bifurcation analysis. We circumvent the derivation of coarse-grained governing equations, following an equation-free computational approach.

q-bio.QM↗