arXiv subjects

Naomi Giertych

Publications and source records attributed to Naomi Giertych.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Conformal Prediction for Astronomy Data with Measurement Error

Astronomers often deal with data where the covariates and the dependent variable are measured with heteroscedastic non-Gaussian error. For instance, while TESS and Kepler datasets provide a wealth of information, addressing the challenges of measurement errors and systematic biases is critical for extracting reliable scientific insights and improving machine learning models' performance. Although techniques have been developed for estimating regression parameters for these data, few techniques exist to construct prediction intervals with finite sample coverage guarantees. To address this issue, we tailor the conformal prediction approach to our application. We empirically demonstrate that this method gives finite sample control over Type I error probabilities under a variety of assumptions on the measurement errors in the observed data. Further, we demonstrate how the conformal prediction method could be used for constructing prediction intervals for unobserved exoplanet masses using established broken power-law relationships between masses and radii found in the literature.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

A Statistical Primer on Classical Period-Finding Techniques in Astronomy

The aim of our paper is to investigate the properties of the classical phase-dispersion minimization (PDM), analysis of variance (AOV), string-length (SL), and Lomb-Scargle (LS) power statistics from a statistician's perspective. We confirm that when the data are perturbations of a constant function, i.e. under the null hypothesis of no period in the data, a scaled version of the PDM statistic follows a beta distribution, the AOV statistic follows an F distribution, and the LS power follows a chi-squared distribution with two degrees of freedom. However, the SL statistic does not have a closed-form distribution. We further verify these theoretical distributions through simulations and demonstrate that the extreme values of these statistics (over a range of trial periods), often used for period estimation and determination of the false alarm probability (FAP), follow different distributions than those derived for a single period. We emphasize that multiple-testing considerations are needed to correctly derive FAP bounds. Though, in fact, multiple-testing controls are built into the FAP bound for these extreme-value statistics, e.g. the FAP bound derived specifically for the maximum LS power statistic over a range of trial periods. Additionally, we find that all of these methods are robust to heteroscedastic noise aimed to mimic the degradation or miscalibration of an instrument over time. Finally, we examine the ability of these statistics to detect a non-constant periodic function via simulating data that mimics a well-detached binary system, and we find that the AOV statistic has the most power to detect the correct period, which agrees with what has been observed in practice.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Modelling wildland fire burn severity in California using a spatial Super Learner approach

Given the increasing prevalence of wildland fires in the Western US, there is a critical need to develop tools to understand and accurately predict burn severity. We develop a machine learning model to predict post-fire burn severity using pre-fire remotely sensed data. Hydrological, ecological, and topographical variables collected from four regions of California - the sites of the Kincade fire (2019), the CZU Lightning Complex fire (2020), the Windy fire (2021), and the KNP Fire (2021) - are used as predictors of the difference normalized burn ratio. We hypothesize that a Super Learner (SL) algorithm that accounts for spatial autocorrelation using Vecchia's Gaussian approximation will accurately model burn severity. In all combinations of test and training sets explored, the results of our model showed the SL algorithm outperformed standard Linear Regression methods. After fitting and verifying the performance of the SL model, we use interpretable machine learning tools to determine the main drivers of severe burn damage, including greenness, elevation and fire weather variables. These findings provide actionable insights that enable communities to strategize interventions, such as early fire detection systems, pre-fire season vegetation clearing activities, and resource allocation during emergency responses. When implemented, this model has the potential to minimize the loss of human life, property, resources, and ecosystems in California.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

yaglm: a Python package for fitting and tuning generalized linear models that supports structured, adaptive and non-convex penalties

The yaglm package aims to make the broader ecosystem of modern generalized linear models accessible to data analysts and researchers. This ecosystem encompasses a range of loss functions (e.g. linear, logistic, quantile regression), constraints (e.g. positive, isotonic) and penalties. Beyond the basic lasso/ridge, the package supports structured penalties such as the nuclear norm as well as the group, exclusive, fused, and generalized lasso. It also supports more accurate adaptive and non-convex (e.g. SCAD) versions of these penalties that often come with strong statistical guarantees at limited additional computational expense. yaglm comes with a variety of tuning parameter selection methods including: cross-validation, information criteria that have favorable model selection properties, and degrees of freedom estimators. While several solvers are built in (e.g. FISTA), a key design choice allows users to employ their favorite state of the art optimization algorithms. Designed to be user friendly, the package automatically creates tuning parameter grids, supports tuning with fast path algorithms along with parallelization, and follows a unified scikit-learn compatible API.

stat.CO↗