arXiv subjects

Naoya Takeishi

Publications and source records attributed to Naoya Takeishi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Self-Augmented Diffusion Guidance for Physics-Informed Generation

Diffusion models can be used to generate spatiotemporal signals of physical phenomena, such as time-series images of fluid dynamics. However, a major limitation of standard diffusion models is that they do not incorporate constraints derived from the underlying physical laws. Consequently, generated samples may appear visually plausible while deviating substantially from the true dynamics. In this study, we propose a simple yet effective physics-informed approach based on diffusion guidance with self-generated data augmentation. The proposed method learns the data distribution conditioned on the degree of deviation from the physically correct dynamics and generates samples by explicitly setting the deviation condition to be zero. The method decouples the evaluation of the governing equations from the diffusion model training and sampling processes, avoiding the need to solve the governing equations at every iteration of the denoising process. This design makes the method applicable to problems requiring computationally expensive numerical simulations and enables faster sample generation. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model not only significantly reduces the deviations compared with standard diffusion models but also achieves further reductions when combined with existing physics-constrained diffusion methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

M$^3$: Reframing Training Measures for Discretized Physical Simulations

Neural surrogate models for physical simulations are trained on discretized samples of continuous domains, where the induced empirical measure leads to uneven supervision, biasing optimization and causing spatial inconsistencies in physical fidelity. To mitigate this measure-induced bias, we propose M$^3$ (Multi-scale Morton Measure), a scalable framework that balances training measures by partitioning space according to physical variation and allocating supervision across multiple scales. Applied to three industrial-scale datasets with diverse discretizations, M$^3$ consistently improves predictions in the continuous physical domain, achieving up to 4.7$\times$ lower error in large-scale volumetric cases. These gains persist under aggressive subsampling (160M $\rightarrow$ 16M $\rightarrow$ 1.6M points), where M$^3$-trained models outperform those trained on higher-resolution data, reducing physics-weighted relative $L_2$ error by 3--4$\times$ and the corresponding MSE by up to 13$\times$. These results highlight data distribution as a key factor in operator learning and position M$^3$ as a scalable, data-efficient approach for physically consistent modeling. Code is available at https://github.com/PhysDataRefine/M3.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Learning Visually Interpretable Oscillator Networks for Soft Continuum Robots from Video

Learning soft continuum robot (SCR) dynamics from video offers flexibility but existing methods lack interpretability or rely on prior assumptions. Model-based approaches require prior knowledge and manual design. We bridge this gap by introducing: (1) The Attention Broadcast Decoder (ABCD), a plug-and-play module for autoencoder-based latent dynamics learning that generates pixel-accurate attention maps localizing each latent dimension's contribution while filtering static backgrounds, enabling visual interpretability via spatially grounded latents and on-image overlays. (2) Visual Oscillator Networks (VONs), a 2D latent oscillator network coupled to ABCD attention maps for on-image visualization of learned masses, coupling stiffness, and forces, thereby enabling mechanical interpretability. We validate our approach on single- and double-segment SCRs, demonstrating that ABCD-based models significantly improve multi-step prediction accuracy with 5.8x error reduction for Koopman operators and 3.5x for oscillator networks on a two-segment robot. VONs autonomously discover a chain structure of oscillators. This fully data-driven approach yields compact, mechanically interpretable models with potential relevance for future control applications.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

Sharpness-Aware Hybrid Model Learning for Architecture-Agnostic Parameter Estimation

Hybrid modeling, the combination of machine learning models and scientific mathematical models, enables flexible and robust data-driven prediction with partial interpretability. However, the unknown parameters of the scientific model cannot necessarily be estimated properly, since the flexibility of the machine learning model might make the scientific model part effectively ignored in prediction. We may avoid it by applying some regularization, but the formulation of such regularizers typically depends on model architectures and domain knowledge. In this paper, we propose an architecture-agnostic method to learn hybrid models while properly estimating the scientific parameters. The idea is to use the flatness of loss minima to achieve model simplicity, based upon the Occam's razor principle. We employ the idea of sharpness-aware minimization and adapt it to the hybrid modeling setting. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the SAM-based hybrid model learning for scientific parameter estimation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Deterministic Decomposition of Stochastic Generative Dynamics

Modern generative models can be understood as probability transport from a simple base distribution to a target data distribution. Deterministic transport models offer tractable velocity-field parameterizations, whereas stochastic generative models capture richer density evolution through drift and diffusion. Yet when stochastic dynamics are described through deterministic velocity fields, the effects of drift and diffusion are often compressed into a single effective field, obscuring the distinct roles of deterministic evolution and stochastic fluctuation. In this work, we show that the deterministic field $b_t$ of a stochastic generative process admits a natural transport--osmotic decomposition that separates deterministic transport from stochastic, diffusion-induced effects: $b_t = u_t + d_t$, where $u_t$ governs marginal probability transport and $d_t$ captures an osmotic effect induced by diffusion and determined by the marginal score. Based on this decomposition, we propose Bridge Matching, a flow-based framework for learning decomposed generative dynamics through both marginal and conditional formulations. In generative modeling experiments, we recombine the learned components as $b_t = u_t + λ_d d_t$, showing that the proposed decomposition enables interpretable and controllable sampling by adjusting the osmotic contribution in probability transport.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Forecast Sports Outcomes under Efficient Market Hypothesis: Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of Odds-Only and Generalised Linear Models

Converting betting odds into accurate outcome probabilities is a fundamental challenge in order to use betting odds as a benchmark for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis. In this study, we propose two methods to overcome the limitations of existing conversion methods. Firstly, we propose an odds-only method to convert betting odds to probabilities without using historical data for model fitting. While existing odds-only methods, such as Multiplicative, Shin, and Power exist, they do not adjust for biases or relationships we found in our betting odds dataset, which consists of 90014 football matches across five different bookmakers. To overcome these limitations, our proposed Odds-Only-Equal-Profitability-Confidence (OO-EPC) method aligns with the bookmakers' pricing objectives of having equal confidence in profitability for each outcome. We provide empirical evidence from our betting odds dataset that, for the majority of bookmakers, our proposed OO-EPC method outperforms the existing odds-only methods. Beyond controlled experiments, we applied the OO-EPC method under real-world uncertainty by using it for six iterations of an annual basketball outcome forecasting competition. Secondly, we propose a generalised linear model that utilises historical data for model fitting and then converts betting odds to probabilities. Existing generalised linear models attempt to capture relationships that the Efficient Market Hypothesis already captures. To overcome this shortcoming, our proposed Favourite-Longshot-Bias-Adjusted Generalised Linear Model (FL-GLM) fits just one parameter to capture the favourite-longshot bias, providing a more interpretable alternative. We provide empirical evidence from historical football matches where, for all bookmakers, our proposed FL-GLM outperforms the existing multinomial and logistic generalised linear models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Accurate Open-Loop Control of a Soft Continuum Robot Through Visually Learned Latent Representations

This work addresses open-loop control of a soft continuum robot (SCR) from video-learned latent dynamics. Visual Oscillator Networks (VONs) from previous work are used, that provide mechanistically interpretable 2D oscillator latents through an attention broadcast decoder (ABCD). Open-loop, single-shooting optimal control is performed in latent space to track image-specified waypoints without camera feedback. An interactive SCR live simulator enables design of static, dynamic, and extrapolated targets and maps them to model-specific latent waypoints. On a two-segment pneumatic SCR, Koopman, MLP, and oscillator dynamics, each with and without ABCD, are evaluated on setpoint and dynamic trajectories. ABCD-based models consistently reduce image-space tracking error. The VON and ABCD-based Koopman models attains the lowest MSEs. Using an ablation study, we demonstrate that several architecture choices and training settings contribute to the open-loop control performance. Simulation stress tests further confirm static holding, stable extrapolated equilibria, and plausible relaxation to the rest state. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first demonstration that interpretable, video-learned latent dynamics enable reliable long-horizon open-loop control of an SCR.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

A Temporal Difference Method for Stochastic Continuous Dynamics

For continuous systems modeled by dynamical equations such as ODEs and SDEs, Bellman's Principle of Optimality takes the form of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, which provides the theoretical target of reinforcement learning (RL). Although recent advances in RL successfully leverage this formulation, the existing methods typically assume the underlying dynamics are known a priori because they need explicit access to the coefficient functions of dynamical equations to update the value function following the HJB equation. We address this inherent limitation of HJB-based RL; we propose a model-free approach still targeting the HJB equation and propose the corresponding temporal difference method. We establish exponential convergence of the idealized continuous-time dynamics and empirically demonstrate its potential advantages over transition-kernel-based formulations. The proposed formulation paves the way toward bridging stochastic control and model-free reinforcement learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Data-driven simulator of multi-animal behavior with unknown dynamics via offline and online reinforcement learning

Simulators of animal movements play a valuable role in studying behavior. Advances in imitation learning for robotics have expanded possibilities for reproducing human and animal movements. A key challenge for realistic multi-animal simulation in biology is bridging the gap between unknown real-world transition models and their simulated counterparts. Because locomotion dynamics are seldom known, relying solely on mathematical models is insufficient; constructing a simulator that both reproduces real trajectories and supports reward-driven optimization remains an open problem. We introduce a data-driven simulator for multi-animal behavior based on deep reinforcement learning and counterfactual simulation. We address the ill-posed nature of the problem caused by high degrees of freedom in locomotion by estimating movement variables of an incomplete transition model as actions within an RL framework. We also employ a distance-based pseudo-reward to align and compare states between cyber and physical spaces. Validated on artificial agents, flies, newts, and silkmoth, our approach achieves higher reproducibility of species-specific behaviors and improved reward acquisition compared with standard imitation and RL methods. Moreover, it enables counterfactual behavior prediction in novel experimental settings and supports multi-individual modeling for flexible what-if trajectory generation, suggesting its potential to simulate and elucidate complex multi-animal behaviors.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Simulation-Efficient Cosmological Inference with Multi-Fidelity SBI

The simulation cost for cosmological simulation-based inference can be decreased by combining simulation sets of varying fidelity. We propose an approach to such multi-fidelity inference based on feature matching and knowledge distillation. Our method results in improved posterior quality, particularly for small simulation budgets and difficult inference problems.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Mimicking Better by Matching the Approximate Action Distribution

In this paper, we introduce MAAD, a novel, sample-efficient on-policy algorithm for Imitation Learning from Observations. MAAD utilizes a surrogate reward signal, which can be derived from various sources such as adversarial games, trajectory matching objectives, or optimal transport criteria. To compensate for the non-availability of expert actions, we rely on an inverse dynamics model that infers plausible actions distribution given the expert's state-state transitions; we regularize the imitator's policy by aligning it to the inferred action distribution. MAAD leads to significantly improved sample efficiency and stability. We demonstrate its effectiveness in a number of MuJoCo environments, both int the OpenAI Gym and the DeepMind Control Suite. We show that it requires considerable fewer interactions to achieve expert performance, outperforming current state-of-the-art on-policy methods. Remarkably, MAAD often stands out as the sole method capable of attaining expert performance levels, underscoring its simplicity and efficacy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Kolmogorov-Smirnov GAN

We propose a novel deep generative model, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Generative Adversarial Network (KSGAN). Unlike existing approaches, KSGAN formulates the learning process as a minimization of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) distance, generalized to handle multivariate distributions. This distance is calculated using the quantile function, which acts as the critic in the adversarial training process. We formally demonstrate that minimizing the KS distance leads to the trained approximate distribution aligning with the target distribution. We propose an efficient implementation and evaluate its effectiveness through experiments. The results show that KSGAN performs on par with existing adversarial methods, exhibiting stability during training, resistance to mode dropping and collapse, and tolerance to variations in hyperparameter settings. Additionally, we review the literature on the Generalized KS test and discuss the connections between KSGAN and existing adversarial generative models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Estimating counterfactual treatment outcomes over time in complex multiagent scenarios

Evaluation of intervention in a multiagent system, e.g., when humans should intervene in autonomous driving systems and when a player should pass to teammates for a good shot, is challenging in various engineering and scientific fields. Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) using counterfactual long-term prediction is practical to evaluate such interventions. However, most of the conventional frameworks did not consider the time-varying complex structure of multiagent relationships and covariate counterfactual prediction. This may lead to erroneous assessments of ITE and difficulty in interpretation. Here we propose an interpretable, counterfactual recurrent network in multiagent systems to estimate the effect of the intervention. Our model leverages graph variational recurrent neural networks and theory-based computation with domain knowledge for the ITE estimation framework based on long-term prediction of multiagent covariates and outcomes, which can confirm the circumstances under which the intervention is effective. On simulated models of an automated vehicle and biological agents with time-varying confounders, we show that our methods achieved lower estimation errors in counterfactual covariates and the most effective treatment timing than the baselines. Furthermore, using real basketball data, our methods performed realistic counterfactual predictions and evaluated the counterfactual passes in shot scenarios.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Adaptive action supervision in reinforcement learning from real-world multi-agent demonstrations

Modeling of real-world biological multi-agents is a fundamental problem in various scientific and engineering fields. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful framework to generate flexible and diverse behaviors in cyberspace; however, when modeling real-world biological multi-agents, there is a domain gap between behaviors in the source (i.e., real-world data) and the target (i.e., cyberspace for RL), and the source environment parameters are usually unknown. In this paper, we propose a method for adaptive action supervision in RL from real-world demonstrations in multi-agent scenarios. We adopt an approach that combines RL and supervised learning by selecting actions of demonstrations in RL based on the minimum distance of dynamic time warping for utilizing the information of the unknown source dynamics. This approach can be easily applied to many existing neural network architectures and provide us with an RL model balanced between reproducibility as imitation and generalization ability to obtain rewards in cyberspace. In the experiments, using chase-and-escape and football tasks with the different dynamics between the unknown source and target environments, we show that our approach achieved a balance between the reproducibility and the generalization ability compared with the baselines. In particular, we used the tracking data of professional football players as expert demonstrations in football and show successful performances despite the larger gap between behaviors in the source and target environments than the chase-and-escape task.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Decentralized policy learning with partial observation and mechanical constraints for multiperson modeling

Extracting the rules of real-world multi-agent behaviors is a current challenge in various scientific and engineering fields. Biological agents independently have limited observation and mechanical constraints; however, most of the conventional data-driven models ignore such assumptions, resulting in lack of biological plausibility and model interpretability for behavioral analyses. Here we propose sequential generative models with partial observation and mechanical constraints in a decentralized manner, which can model agents' cognition and body dynamics, and predict biologically plausible behaviors. We formulate this as a decentralized multi-agent imitation-learning problem, leveraging binary partial observation and decentralized policy models based on hierarchical variational recurrent neural networks with physical and biomechanical penalties. Using real-world basketball and soccer datasets, we show the effectiveness of our method in terms of the constraint violations, long-term trajectory prediction, and partial observation. Our approach can be used as a multi-agent simulator to generate realistic trajectories using real-world data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Calibrating Neural Simulation-Based Inference with Differentiable Coverage Probability

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a simulator posing the need for simulation-based inference (SBI). However, the existing algorithms can yield overconfident posteriors (Hermans *et al.*, 2022) defeating the whole purpose of credibility if the uncertainty quantification is inaccurate. We propose to include a calibration term directly into the training objective of the neural model in selected amortized SBI techniques. By introducing a relaxation of the classical formulation of calibration error we enable end-to-end backpropagation. The proposed method is not tied to any particular neural model and brings moderate computational overhead compared to the profits it introduces. It is directly applicable to existing computational pipelines allowing reliable black-box posterior inference. We empirically show on six benchmark problems that the proposed method achieves competitive or better results in terms of coverage and expected posterior density than the previously existing approaches.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

A Characteristic Function for Shapley-Value-Based Attribution of Anomaly Scores

In anomaly detection, the degree of irregularity is often summarized as a real-valued anomaly score. We address the problem of attributing such anomaly scores to input features for interpreting the results of anomaly detection. We particularly investigate the use of the Shapley value for attributing anomaly scores of semi-supervised detection methods. We propose a characteristic function specifically designed for attributing anomaly scores. The idea is to approximate the absence of some features by locally minimizing the anomaly score with regard to the to-be-absent features. We examine the applicability of the proposed characteristic function and other general approaches for interpreting anomaly scores on multiple datasets and multiple anomaly detection methods. The results indicate the potential utility of the attribution methods including the proposed one.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Deep Grey-Box Modeling With Adaptive Data-Driven Models Toward Trustworthy Estimation of Theory-Driven Models

The combination of deep neural nets and theory-driven models, which we call deep grey-box modeling, can be inherently interpretable to some extent thanks to the theory backbone. Deep grey-box models are usually learned with a regularized risk minimization to prevent a theory-driven part from being overwritten and ignored by a deep neural net. However, an estimation of the theory-driven part obtained by uncritically optimizing a regularizer can hardly be trustworthy when we are not sure what regularizer is suitable for the given data, which may harm the interpretability. Toward a trustworthy estimation of the theory-driven part, we should analyze regularizers' behavior to compare different candidates and to justify a specific choice. In this paper, we present a framework that enables us to analyze a regularizer's behavior empirically with a slight change in the neural net's architecture and the training objective.

cs.LG↗