arXiv subjects

Naren Ramakrishnan

Publications and source records attributed to Naren Ramakrishnan.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Mitigating Uncertainty in Document Classification

The uncertainty measurement of classifiers' predictions is especially important in applications such as medical diagnoses that need to ensure limited human resources can focus on the most uncertain predictions returned by machine learning models. However, few existing uncertainty models attempt to improve overall prediction accuracy where human resources are involved in the text classification task. In this paper, we propose a novel neural-network-based model that applies a new dropout-entropy method for uncertainty measurement. We also design a metric learning method on feature representations, which can boost the performance of dropout-based uncertainty methods with smaller prediction variance in accurate prediction trials. Extensive experiments on real-world data sets demonstrate that our method can achieve a considerable improvement in overall prediction accuracy compared to existing approaches. In particular, our model improved the accuracy from 0.78 to 0.92 when 30\% of the most uncertain predictions were handed over to human experts in "20NewsGroup" data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Patent Citation Dynamics Modeling via Multi-Attention Recurrent Networks

Modeling and forecasting forward citations to a patent is a central task for the discovery of emerging technologies and for measuring the pulse of inventive progress. Conventional methods for forecasting these forward citations cast the problem as analysis of temporal point processes which rely on the conditional intensity of previously received citations. Recent approaches model the conditional intensity as a chain of recurrent neural networks to capture memory dependency in hopes of reducing the restrictions of the parametric form of the intensity function. For the problem of patent citations, we observe that forecasting a patent's chain of citations benefits from not only the patent's history itself but also from the historical citations of assignees and inventors associated with that patent. In this paper, we propose a sequence-to-sequence model which employs an attention-of-attention mechanism to capture the dependencies of these multiple time sequences. Furthermore, the proposed model is able to forecast both the timestamp and the category of a patent's next citation. Extensive experiments on a large patent citation dataset collected from USPTO demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art models at forward citation forecasting.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2019

Deep Reinforcement Learning For Sequence to Sequence Models

In recent times, sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models have gained a lot of popularity and provide state-of-the-art performance in a wide variety of tasks such as machine translation, headline generation, text summarization, speech to text conversion, and image caption generation. The underlying framework for all these models is usually a deep neural network comprising an encoder and a decoder. Although simple encoder-decoder models produce competitive results, many researchers have proposed additional improvements over these sequence-to-sequence models, e.g., using an attention-based model over the input, pointer-generation models, and self-attention models. However, such seq2seq models suffer from two common problems: 1) exposure bias and 2) inconsistency between train/test measurement. Recently, a completely novel point of view has emerged in addressing these two problems in seq2seq models, leveraging methods from reinforcement learning (RL). In this survey, we consider seq2seq problems from the RL point of view and provide a formulation combining the power of RL methods in decision-making with sequence-to-sequence models that enable remembering long-term memories. We present some of the most recent frameworks that combine concepts from RL and deep neural networks and explain how these two areas could benefit from each other in solving complex seq2seq tasks. Our work aims to provide insights into some of the problems that inherently arise with current approaches and how we can address them with better RL models. We also provide the source code for implementing most of the RL models discussed in this paper to support the complex task of abstractive text summarization.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Distributed Representations of Signed Networks

Recent successes in word embedding and document embedding have motivated researchers to explore similar representations for networks and to use such representations for tasks such as edge prediction, node label prediction, and community detection. Such network embedding methods are largely focused on finding distributed representations for unsigned networks and are unable to discover embeddings that respect polarities inherent in edges. We propose SIGNet, a fast scalable embedding method suitable for signed networks. Our proposed objective function aims to carefully model the social structure implicit in signed networks by reinforcing the principles of social balance theory. Our method builds upon the traditional word2vec family of embedding approaches and adds a new targeted node sampling strategy to maintain structural balance in higher-order neighborhoods. We demonstrate the superiority of SIGNet over state-of-the-art methods proposed for both signed and unsigned networks on several real world datasets from different domains. In particular, SIGNet offers an approach to generate a richer vocabulary of features of signed networks to support representation and reasoning.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Deep Transfer Reinforcement Learning for Text Summarization

Deep neural networks are data hungry models and thus face difficulties when attempting to train on small text datasets. Transfer learning is a potential solution but their effectiveness in the text domain is not as explored as in areas such as image analysis. In this paper, we study the problem of transfer learning for text summarization and discuss why existing state-of-the-art models fail to generalize well on other (unseen) datasets. We propose a reinforcement learning framework based on a self-critic policy gradient approach which achieves good generalization and state-of-the-art results on a variety of datasets. Through an extensive set of experiments, we also show the ability of our proposed framework to fine-tune the text summarization model using only a few training samples. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that studies transfer learning in text summarization and provides a generic solution that works well on unseen data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

New methods to generate massive synthetic networks

One of the biggest needs in network science research is access to large realistic datasets. As data analytics methods permeate a range of diverse disciplines---e.g., computational epidemiology, sustainability, social media analytics, biology, and transportation--- network datasets that can exhibit characteristics encountered in each of these disciplines becomes paramount. The key technical issue is to be able to generate synthetic topologies with pre-specified, arbitrary, degree distributions. Existing methods are limited in their ability to faithfully reproduce macro-level characteristics of networks while at the same time respecting particular degree distributions. We present a suite of three algorithms that exploit the principle of residual degree attenuation to generate synthetic topologies that adhere to macro-level real-world characteristics. By evaluating these algorithms w.r.t. several real-world datasets we demonstrate their ability to faithfully reproduce network characteristics such as node degree, clustering coefficient, hop length, and k-core structure distributions.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

A Framework for Evaluating Epidemic Forecasts

Background: Over the past few decades, numerous forecasting methods have been proposed in the field of epidemic forecasting. Such methods can be classified into different categories such as deterministic vs. probabilistic, comparative methods vs. generative methods, and so on. In some of the more popular comparative methods, researchers compare observed epidemiological data from early stages of an outbreak with the output of proposed models to forecast the future trend and prevalence of the pandemic. A significant problem in this area is the lack of standard well-defined evaluation measures to select the best algorithm among different ones, as well as for selecting the best possible configuration for a particular algorithm. Results: In this paper, we present an evaluation framework which allows for combining different features, error measures, and ranking schema to evaluate forecasts. We describe the various epidemic features (Epi-features) included to characterize the output of forecasting methods and provide suitable error measures that could be used to evaluate the accuracy of the methods with respect to these Epi-features. We focus on long-term predictions rather than short-term forecasting and demonstrate the utility of the framework by evaluating six forecasting methods for predicting influenza in the United States. Our results demonstrate that different error measures lead to different rankings even for a single Epi-feature. Further, our experimental analyses show that no single method dominates the rest in predicting all Epi-features, when evaluated across error measures. As an alternative, we provide various consensus ranking schema that summarizes individual rankings, thus accounting for different error measures. We believe that a comprehensive evaluation framework, as presented in this paper, will add value to the computational epidemiology community.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Can Self-Censorship in News Media be Detected Algorithmically? A Case Study in Latin America

Censorship in social media has been well studied and provides insight into how governments stifle freedom of expression online. Comparatively less (or no) attention has been paid to detecting (self) censorship in traditional media (e.g., news) using social media as a bellweather. We present a novel unsupervised approach that views social media as a sensor to detect censorship in news media wherein statistically significant differences between information published in the news media and the correlated information published in social media are automatically identified as candidate censored events. We develop a hypothesis testing framework to identify and evaluate censored clusters of keywords, and a new near-linear-time algorithm (called GraphDPD) to identify the highest scoring clusters as indicators of censorship. We outline extensive experiments on semi-synthetic data as well as real datasets (with Twitter and local news media) from Mexico and Venezuela, highlighting the capability to accurately detect real-world self censorship events.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Crowdsourcing Cybersecurity: Cyber Attack Detection using Social Media

Social media is often viewed as a sensor into various societal events such as disease outbreaks, protests, and elections. We describe the use of social media as a crowdsourced sensor to gain insight into ongoing cyber-attacks. Our approach detects a broad range of cyber-attacks (e.g., distributed denial of service (DDOS) attacks, data breaches, and account hijacking) in an unsupervised manner using just a limited fixed set of seed event triggers. A new query expansion strategy based on convolutional kernels and dependency parses helps model reporting structure and aids in identifying key event characteristics. Through a large-scale analysis over Twitter, we demonstrate that our approach consistently identifies and encodes events, outperforming existing methods.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2017

Guided Deep List: Automating the Generation of Epidemiological Line Lists from Open Sources

Real-time monitoring and responses to emerging public health threats rely on the availability of timely surveillance data. During the early stages of an epidemic, the ready availability of line lists with detailed tabular information about laboratory-confirmed cases can assist epidemiologists in making reliable inferences and forecasts. Such inferences are crucial to understand the epidemiology of a specific disease early enough to stop or control the outbreak. However, construction of such line lists requires considerable human supervision and therefore, difficult to generate in real-time. In this paper, we motivate Guided Deep List, the first tool for building automated line lists (in near real-time) from open source reports of emerging disease outbreaks. Specifically, we focus on deriving epidemiological characteristics of an emerging disease and the affected population from reports of illness. Guided Deep List uses distributed vector representations (ala word2vec) to discover a set of indicators for each line list feature. This discovery of indicators is followed by the use of dependency parsing based techniques for final extraction in tabular form. We evaluate the performance of Guided Deep List against a human annotated line list provided by HealthMap corresponding to MERS outbreaks in Saudi Arabia. We demonstrate that Guided Deep List extracts line list features with increased accuracy compared to a baseline method. We further show how these automatically extracted line list features can be used for making epidemiological inferences, such as inferring demographics and symptoms-to-hospitalization period of affected individuals.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2017

Distributed Representation of Subgraphs

Network embeddings have become very popular in learning effective feature representations of networks. Motivated by the recent successes of embeddings in natural language processing, researchers have tried to find network embeddings in order to exploit machine learning algorithms for mining tasks like node classification and edge prediction. However, most of the work focuses on finding distributed representations of nodes, which are inherently ill-suited to tasks such as community detection which are intuitively dependent on subgraphs. Here, we propose sub2vec, an unsupervised scalable algorithm to learn feature representations of arbitrary subgraphs. We provide means to characterize similarties between subgraphs and provide theoretical analysis of sub2vec and demonstrate that it preserves the so-called local proximity. We also highlight the usability of sub2vec by leveraging it for network mining tasks, like community detection. We show that sub2vec gets significant gains over state-of-the-art methods and node-embedding methods. In particular, sub2vec offers an approach to generate a richer vocabulary of features of subgraphs to support representation and reasoning.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Modeling Precursors for Event Forecasting via Nested Multi-Instance Learning

Forecasting events like civil unrest movements, disease outbreaks, financial market movements and government elections from open source indicators such as news feeds and social media streams is an important and challenging problem. From the perspective of human analysts and policy makers, forecasting algorithms need to provide supporting evidence and identify the causes related to the event of interest. We develop a novel multiple instance learning based approach that jointly tackles the problem of identifying evidence-based precursors and forecasts events into the future. Specifically, given a collection of streaming news articles from multiple sources we develop a nested multiple instance learning approach to forecast significant societal events across three countries in Latin America. Our algorithm is able to identify news articles considered as precursors for a protest. Our empirical evaluation shows the strengths of our proposed approaches in filtering candidate precursors, forecasting the occurrence of events with a lead time and predicting the characteristics of different events in comparison to several other formulations. We demonstrate through case studies the effectiveness of our proposed model in filtering the candidate precursors for inspection by a human analyst.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Sparse Estimation of Multivariate Poisson Log-Normal Models from Count Data

Modeling data with multivariate count responses is a challenging problem due to the discrete nature of the responses. Existing methods for univariate count responses cannot be easily extended to the multivariate case since the dependency among multiple responses needs to be properly accommodated. In this paper, we propose a multivariate Poisson log-normal regression model for multivariate data with count responses. By simultaneously estimating the regression coefficients and inverse covariance matrix over the latent variables with an efficient Monte Carlo EM algorithm, the proposed regression model takes advantages of association among multiple count responses to improve the model prediction performance. Simulation studies and applications to real world data are conducted to systematically evaluate the performance of the proposed method in comparison with conventional methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2016

Interactive and Iterative Discovery of Entity Network Subgraphs

Graph mining to extract interesting components has been studied in various guises, e.g., communities, dense subgraphs, cliques. However, most existing works are based on notions of frequency and connectivity and do not capture subjective interestingness from a user's viewpoint. Furthermore, existing approaches to mine graphs are not interactive and cannot incorporate user feedbacks in any natural manner. In this paper, we address these gaps by proposing a graph maximum entropy model to discover surprising connected subgraph patterns from entity graphs. This model is embedded in an interactive visualization framework to enable human-in-the-loop, model-guided data exploration. Using case studies on real datasets, we demonstrate how interactions between users and the maximum entropy model lead to faster and explainable conclusions.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Characterizing Diseases from Unstructured Text: A Vocabulary Driven Word2vec Approach

Traditional disease surveillance can be augmented with a wide variety of real-time sources such as, news and social media. However, these sources are in general unstructured and, construction of surveillance tools such as taxonomical correlations and trace mapping involves considerable human supervision. In this paper, we motivate a disease vocabulary driven word2vec model (Dis2Vec) to model diseases and constituent attributes as word embeddings from the HealthMap news corpus. We use these word embeddings to automatically create disease taxonomies and evaluate our model against corresponding human annotated taxonomies. We compare our model accuracies against several state-of-the art word2vec methods. Our results demonstrate that Dis2Vec outperforms traditional distributed vector representations in its ability to faithfully capture taxonomical attributes across different class of diseases such as endemic, emerging and rare.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Temporal Topic Modeling to Assess Associations between News Trends and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which media interest during infectious disease outbreaks is indicative of trends of reported incidence. We introduce an approach that uses supervised temporal topic models to transform large corpora of news articles into temporal topic trends. The key advantages of this approach include, applicability to a wide range of diseases, and ability to capture disease dynamics - including seasonality, abrupt peaks and troughs. We evaluated the method using data from multiple infectious disease outbreaks reported in the United States of America (U.S.), China and India. We noted that temporal topic trends extracted from disease-related news reports successfully captured the dynamics of multiple outbreaks such as whooping cough in U.S. (2012), dengue outbreaks in India (2013) and China (2014). Our observations also suggest that efficient modeling of temporal topic trends using time-series regression techniques can estimate disease case counts with increased precision before official reports by health organizations.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Hierarchical Quickest Change Detection via Surrogates

Change detection (CD) in time series data is a critical problem as it reveal changes in the underlying generative processes driving the time series. Despite having received significant attention, one important unexplored aspect is how to efficiently utilize additional correlated information to improve the detection and the understanding of changepoints. We propose hierarchical quickest change detection (HQCD), a framework that formalizes the process of incorporating additional correlated sources for early changepoint detection. The core ideas behind HQCD are rooted in the theory of quickest detection and HQCD can be regarded as its novel generalization to a hierarchical setting. The sources are classified into targets and surrogates, and HQCD leverages this structure to systematically assimilate observed data to update changepoint statistics across layers. The decision on actual changepoints are provided by minimizing the delay while still maintaining reliability bounds. In addition, HQCD also uncovers interesting relations between changes at targets from changes across surrogates. We validate HQCD for reliability and performance against several state-of-the-art methods for both synthetic dataset (known changepoints) and several real-life examples (unknown changepoints). Our experiments indicate that we gain significant robustness without loss of detection delay through HQCD. Our real-life experiments also showcase the usefulness of the hierarchical setting by connecting the surrogate sources (such as Twitter chatter) to target sources (such as Employment related protests that ultimately lead to major uprisings).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

EMBERS at 4 years: Experiences operating an Open Source Indicators Forecasting System

EMBERS is an anticipatory intelligence system forecasting population-level events in multiple countries of Latin America. A deployed system from 2012, EMBERS has been generating alerts 24x7 by ingesting a broad range of data sources including news, blogs, tweets, machine coded events, currency rates, and food prices. In this paper, we describe our experiences operating EMBERS continuously for nearly 4 years, with specific attention to the discoveries it has enabled, correct as well as missed forecasts, and lessons learnt from participating in a forecasting tournament including our perspectives on the limits of forecasting and ethical considerations.

cs.CY↗