arXiv subjects

Natalie Batalha

Publications and source records attributed to Natalie Batalha.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Radius Cliff is a Waterfall: Explaining Sub-Neptune Exoplanets with Steam Worlds

The demographics of Kepler planets provide a key testbed for models of planet formation and evolution, particularly for explaining the radius valley separating super-Earths and sub-Neptunes. A primordial interpretation based on differences in bulk densities -- where rocky and water-rich planets form via migration pathways -- offers an alternative to atmospheric loss scenarios. Updated interior structure models of water worlds with adiabatic steam atmospheres reproduce the observed valley near $\sim2~R_\oplus$ more accurately. Furthermore, migration models from our Genesis library suggest that these formation pathways can also account for the distinct period distributions of super-Earths and sub-Neptunes, as well as the emergence of the hot Neptune desert. Motivated by this, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model for close-in Kepler planets ($P<100$ days), combining rocky planets and water worlds without H/He envelopes. The inferred mass distributions of rocky and water-rich planets peak at $\sim2.6~M_\oplus$ and $\sim7~M_\oplus$, respectively, with the water mass fraction of water worlds peaking at $\sim41\%$. Water worlds provide a good representation of the Kepler sub-Neptune population, with the radius cliff emerging as a ``waterfall" -- a sharp decline in their occurrence. However, our mass-radius analysis shows that water worlds alone cannot explain planets with $R \gtrsim 3~R_\oplus$, implying that at least $\sim20\%$ of sub-Neptunes in the sample are enriched in H/He gas.

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arXiv2024

Evolution of steam worlds: energetic aspects

Sub-Neptunes occupy an intriguing region of planetary mass-radius space, where theoretical models of interior structure predict that they could be water-rich, where water is in steam and supercritical state. Such planets are expected to evolve according to the same principles as canonical H$_2$-He rich planets, but models that assume a water-dominated atmosphere consistent with the interior have not been developed yet. Here, we present a state of the art structure and evolution model for water-rich sub-Neptunes. Our set-up combines an existing atmosphere model that controls the heat loss from the planet, and an interior model that acts as the reservoir of energy. We compute evolutionary tracks of planetary radius over time. We find that planets with pure water envelopes have smaller radii than predicted by previous models, and the change in radius is much slower (within $\sim$10\%). We also find that water in the deep interior is colder than previously suggested, and can transition from plasma state to superionic ice, which can have additional implications for their evolution. We provide a grid of evolutionary tracks that can be used to infer the bulk water content of sub-Neptunes. We compare the bulk water content inferred by this model and other models available in the literature, and find statistically significant differences between models when the uncertainty on measured mass and radius are both smaller than 10\%. This study shows the importance of pursuing efforts in the modeling of volatile-rich planets, and how to connect them to observations.

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arXiv2023

Recovering simulated planet and disk signals using SCALES aperture masking

The Slicer Combined with Array of Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy (SCALES) instrument is a lenslet-based integral field spectrograph that will operate at 2 to 5 microns, imaging and characterizing colder (and thus older) planets than current high-contrast instruments. Its spatial resolution for distant science targets and/or close-in disks and companions could be improved via interferometric techniques such as sparse aperture masking. We introduce a nascent Python package, NRM-artist, that we use to design several SCALES masks to be non-redundant and to have uniform coverage in Fourier space. We generate high-fidelity mock SCALES data using the scalessim package for SCALES' low spectral resolution modes across its 2 to 5 micron bandpass. We include realistic noise from astrophysical and instrument sources, including Keck adaptive optics and Poisson noise. We inject planet and disk signals into the mock datasets and subsequently recover them to test the performance of SCALES sparse aperture masking and to determine the sensitivity of various mask designs to different science signals.

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arXiv2023

Simulating medium-spectral-resolution exoplanet characterization with SCALES angular/reference differential imaging

SCALES (Slicer Combined with Array of Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy) is a 2 - 5 micron high-contrast lenslet-based integral field spectrograph (IFS) designed to characterize exoplanets and their atmospheres. The SCALES medium-spectral-resolution mode uses a lenslet subarray with a 0.34 x 0.36 arcsecond field of view which allows for exoplanet characterization at increased spectral resolution. We explore the sensitivity limitations of this mode by simulating planet detections in the presence of realistic noise sources. We use the SCALES simulator scalessim to generate high-fidelity mock observations of planets that include speckle noise from their host stars, as well as other atmospheric and instrumental noise effects. We employ both angular and reference differential imaging as methods of disentangling speckle noise from the injected planet signals. These simulations allow us to assess the feasibility of speckle deconvolution for SCALES medium resolution data, and to test whether one approach outperforms another based on planet angular separations and contrasts.

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arXiv2023

The Slicer Combined with Array of Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy (SCALES): driving science cases and expected outcomes

The Slicer Combined with Array of Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy (SCALES) is a $2-5~μ$m, high-contrast integral field spectrograph (IFS) currently being built for Keck Observatory. With both low ($R\lesssim250$) and medium ($R\sim3500-7000$) spectral resolution IFS modes, SCALES will detect and characterize significantly colder exoplanets than those accessible with near-infrared ($\sim1-2~μ$m) high-contrast spectrographs. This will lead to new progress in exoplanet atmospheric studies, including detailed characterization of benchmark systems that will advance the state of the art of atmospheric modeling. SCALES' unique modes, while designed specifically for direct exoplanet characterization, will enable a broader range of novel (exo)planetary observations as well as galactic and extragalactic studies. Here we present the science cases that drive the design of SCALES. We describe an end-to-end instrument simulator that we use to track requirements, and show simulations of expected science yields for each driving science case. We conclude with a discussion of preparations for early science when the instrument sees first light in $\sim2025$.

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arXiv2021

TOI-431/HIP 26013: a super-Earth and a sub-Neptune transiting a bright, early K dwarf, with a third RV planet

We present the bright (V$_{mag} = 9.12$), multi-planet system TOI-431, characterised with photometry and radial velocities. We estimate the stellar rotation period to be $30.5 \pm 0.7$ days using archival photometry and radial velocities. TOI-431b is a super-Earth with a period of 0.49 days, a radius of 1.28 $\pm$ 0.04 R$_{\oplus}$, a mass of $3.07 \pm 0.35$ M$_{\oplus}$, and a density of $8.0 \pm 1.0$ g cm$^{-3}$; TOI-431d is a sub-Neptune with a period of 12.46 days, a radius of $3.29 \pm 0.09$ R$_{\oplus}$, a mass of $9.90^{+1.53}_{-1.49}$ M$_{\oplus}$, and a density of $1.36 \pm 0.25$ g cm$^{-3}$. We find a third planet, TOI-431c, in the HARPS radial velocity data, but it is not seen to transit in the TESS light curves. It has an $M \sin i$ of $2.83^{+0.41}_{-0.34}$ M$_{\oplus}$, and a period of 4.85 days. TOI-431d likely has an extended atmosphere and is one of the most well-suited TESS discoveries for atmospheric characterisation, while the super-Earth TOI-431b may be a stripped core. These planets straddle the radius gap, presenting an interesting case-study for atmospheric evolution, and TOI-431b is a prime TESS discovery for the study of rocky planet phase curves.

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arXiv2020

Sensitivity Analyses of Exoplanet Occurrence Rates from Kepler and Gaia

We infer the number of planets-per-star as a function of orbital period and planet size using $Kepler$ archival data products with updated stellar properties from the $Gaia$ Data Release 2. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we incorporate planet radius uncertainties into an inhomogeneous Poisson point process model. We demonstrate that this model captures the general features of the outcome of the planet formation and evolution around GK stars, and provides an infrastructure to use the $Kepler$ results to constrain analytic planet distribution models. We report an increased mean and variance in the marginal posterior distributions for the number of planets per $GK$ star when including planet radius measurement uncertainties. We estimate the number of planets-per-$GK$ star between 0.75 and 2.5 $R_{\oplus}$ and 50 to 300 day orbital periods to have a $68\%$ credible interval of $0.49$ to $0.77$ and a posterior mean of $0.63$. This posterior has a smaller mean and a larger variance than the occurrence rate calculated in this work and in Burke et al. (2015) for the same parameter space using the $Q1-Q16$ (previous $Kepler$ planet candidate and stellar catalog). We attribute the smaller mean to many of the instrumental false positives at longer orbital periods being removed from the $DR25$ catalog. We find that the accuracy and precision of our hierarchical Bayesian model posterior distributions are less sensitive to the total number of planets in the sample, and more so on the characteristics of the catalog completeness and reliability and the span of the planet parameter space.

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arXiv2020

A super-Earth and two sub-Neptunes transiting the nearby and quiet M dwarf TOI-270

We report the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite discovery of three small planets transiting one of the nearest and brightest M dwarf hosts to date, TOI-270 (TIC 259377017; K-mag 8.3; 22.5 parsec). The M3V-type star is transited by the super-Earth-sized TOI-270 b (1.247+0.089-0.083 R_earth) and the sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets TOI-270 c (2.42+-0.13 R_earth) and TOI-270 d (2.13+-0.12 R_earth). The planets orbit close to a mean-motion resonant chain, with periods (3.36, 5.66, and 11.38 days) near ratios of small integers (5:3 and 2:1). TOI-270 is a prime target for future studies since: 1) its near-resonance allows detecting transit timing variations for precise mass measurements and dynamical studies; 2) its brightness enables independent radial velocity mass measurements; 3) the outer planets are ideal for atmospheric characterisation via transmission spectroscopy; and 4) the quiet star enables future searches for habitable zone planets. Altogether, very few systems with small, temperate exoplanets are as suitable for such complementary and detailed characterisation as TOI-270.

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arXiv2020

A Habitable-Zone Earth-Sized Planet Rescued from False Positive Status

We report the discovery of an Earth-sized planet in the habitable zone of a low-mass star called Kepler-1649. The planet, Kepler-1649 c, is 1.06$^{+0.15}_{-0.10}$ times the size of Earth and transits its 0.1977 +/- 0.0051 Msun mid M-dwarf host star every 19.5 days. It receives 74 +/- 3 % the incident flux of Earth, giving it an equilibrium temperature of 234 +/- 20K and placing it firmly inside the circumstellar habitable zone. Kepler-1649 also hosts a previously-known inner planet that orbits every 8.7 days and is roughly equivalent to Venus in size and incident flux. Kepler-1649 c was originally classified as a false positive by the Kepler pipeline, but was rescued as part of a systematic visual inspection of all automatically dispositioned Kepler false positives. This discovery highlights the value of human inspection of planet candidates even as automated techniques improve, and hints that terrestrial planets around mid to late M-dwarfs may be more common than those around more massive stars.

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arXiv2020

Global Chemistry and Thermal Structure Models for the Hot Jupiter WASP-43b and Predictions for JWST

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to revolutionize the field of exoplanets. The broad wavelength coverage and the high sensitivity of its instruments will allow characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres with unprecedented precision. Following the Call for the Cycle 1 Early Release Science Program, the Transiting Exoplanet Community was awarded time to observe several targets, including WASP-43b. The atmosphere of this hot Jupiter has been intensively observed but still harbors some mysteries, especially concerning the day-night temperature gradient, the efficiency of the atmospheric circulation, and the presence of nightside clouds. We will constrain these properties by observing a full orbit of the planet and extracting its spectroscopic phase curve in the 5--12 $μ$m range with JWST/MIRI. To prepare for these observations, we performed an extensive modeling work with various codes: radiative transfer, chemical kinetics, cloud microphysics, global circulation models, JWST simulators, and spectral retrieval. Our JWST simulations show that we should achieve a precision of 210 ppm per 0.1 $μ$m spectral bin on average, which will allow us to measure the variations of the spectrum in longitude and measure the night-side emission spectrum for the first time. If the atmosphere of WASP-43b is clear, our observations will permit us to determine if its atmosphere has an equilibrium or disequilibrium chemical composition, providing eventually the first conclusive evidence of chemical quenching in a hot Jupiter atmosphere. If the atmosphere is cloudy, a careful retrieval analysis will allow us to identify the cloud composition.

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arXiv2019

The Need for Laboratory Measurements and Ab Initio Studies to Aid Understanding of Exoplanetary Atmospheres

We are now on a clear trajectory for improvements in exoplanet observations that will revolutionize our ability to characterize their atmospheric structure, composition, and circulation, from gas giants to rocky planets. However, exoplanet atmospheric models capable of interpreting the upcoming observations are often limited by insufficiencies in the laboratory and theoretical data that serve as critical inputs to atmospheric physical and chemical tools. Here we provide an up-to-date and condensed description of areas where laboratory and/or ab initio investigations could fill critical gaps in our ability to model exoplanet atmospheric opacities, clouds, and chemistry, building off a larger 2016 white paper, and endorsed by the NAS Exoplanet Science Strategy report. Now is the ideal time for progress in these areas, but this progress requires better access to, understanding of, and training in the production of spectroscopic data as well as a better insight into chemical reaction kinetics both thermal and radiation-induced at a broad range of temperatures. Given that most published efforts have emphasized relatively Earth-like conditions, we can expect significant and enlightening discoveries as emphasis moves to the exotic atmospheres of exoplanets.

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arXiv2019

The Transiting Multi-planet System HD15337: Two Nearly Equal-mass Planets Straddling the Radius Gap

We report the discovery of a super-Earth and a sub-Neptune transiting the star HD 15337 (TOI-402, TIC 120896927), a bright (V=9) K1 dwarf observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) in Sectors 3 and 4. We combine the TESS photometry with archival HARPS spectra to confirm the planetary nature of the transit signals and derive the masses of the two transiting planets. With an orbital period of 4.8 days, a mass of 7.51(+1.09)(-1.01) M_Earth, and a radius of 1.64+/-0.06 R_Earth, HD 15337b joins the growing group of short-period super-Earths known to have a rocky terrestrial composition. The sub-Neptune HD 15337c has an orbital period of 17.2 days, a mass of 8.11(+1.82)(-1.69) M_Earth, and a radius of 2.39+/-0.12 R_Earth, suggesting that the planet might be surrounded by a thick atmospheric envelope. The two planets have similar masses and lie on opposite sides of the radius gap, and are thus an excellent testbed for planet formation and evolution theories. Assuming that HD 15337c hosts a hydrogen-dominated envelope, we employ a recently developed planet atmospheric evolution algorithm in a Bayesian framework to estimate the history of the high-energy (extreme ultraviolet and X-ray) emission of the host star. We find that at an age of 150 Myr, the star possessed on average between 3.7 and 127 times the high-energy luminosity of the current Sun.

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arXiv2018

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VIII. A Fully Automated Catalog With Measured Completeness and Reliability Based on Data Release 25

We present the Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) catalog of transiting exoplanets based on searching four years of Kepler time series photometry (Data Release 25, Q1-Q17). The catalog contains 8054 KOIs of which 4034 are planet candidates with periods between 0.25 and 632 days. Of these candidates, 219 are new and include two in multi-planet systems (KOI-82.06 and KOI-2926.05), and ten high-reliability, terrestrial-size, habitable zone candidates. This catalog was created using a tool called the Robovetter which automatically vets the DR25 Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs, Twicken et al. 2016). The Robovetter also vetted simulated data sets and measured how well it was able to separate TCEs caused by noise from those caused by low signal-to-noise transits. We discusses the Robovetter and the metrics it uses to sort TCEs. For orbital periods less than 100 days the Robovetter completeness (the fraction of simulated transits that are determined to be planet candidates) across all observed stars is greater than 85%. For the same period range, the catalog reliability (the fraction of candidates that are not due to instrumental or stellar noise) is greater than 98%. However, for low signal-to-noise candidates between 200 and 500 days around FGK dwarf stars, the Robovetter is 76.7% complete and the catalog is 50.5% reliable. The KOI catalog, the transit fits and all of the simulated data used to characterize this catalog are available at the NASA Exoplanet Archive.

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arXiv2018

Life Beyond the Solar System: Observation and Modeling of Exoplanet Environments

The search for life on planets outside our solar system has largely been the province of the astrophysics community until recently. A major development since the NASA Astrobiology Strategy 2015 document (AS15) has been the integration of other NASA science disciplines (planetary science, heliophysics, Earth science) with ongoing exoplanet research in astrophysics. The NASA Nexus for Exoplanet System Science (NExSS) provides a forum for scientists to collaborate across disciplines to accelerate progress in the search for life elsewhere. Here we describe recent developments in these other disciplines, with a focus on exoplanet properties and environments, and the prospects for future progress that will be achieved by integrating emerging knowledge from astrophysics with insights from these fields.

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arXiv2015

Kepler Eclipsing Binary Stars. VII. The Catalog of Eclipsing Binaries Found in the Entire Kepler Data-Set

The primary Kepler Mission provided nearly continuous monitoring of ~200,000 objects with unprecedented photometric precision. We present the final catalog of eclipsing binary systems within the 105 square degree Kepler field of view. This release incorporates the full extent of the data from the primary mission (Q0-Q17 Data Release). As a result, new systems have been added, additional false positives have been removed, ephemerides and principal parameters have been recomputed, classifications have been revised to rely on analytical models, and eclipse timing variations have been computed for each system. We identify several classes of systems including those that exhibit tertiary eclipse events, systems that show clear evidence of additional bodies, heartbeat systems, systems with changing eclipse depths, and systems exhibiting only one eclipse event over the duration of the mission. We have updated the period and galactic latitude distribution diagrams and included a catalog completeness evaluation. The total number of identified eclipsing and ellipsoidal binary systems in the Kepler field of view has increased to 2878, 1.3% of all observed Kepler targets. An online version of this catalog with downloadable content and visualization tools is maintained at http://keplerEBs.villanova.edu.

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arXiv2014

Architecture of Kepler's Multi-transiting Systems: II. New investigations with twice as many candidates

We report on the orbital architectures of Kepler systems having multiple planet candidates identified in the analysis of data from the first six quarters of Kepler data and reported by Batalha et al. (2013). These data show 899 transiting planet candidates in 365 multiple-planet systems and provide a powerful means to study the statistical properties of planetary systems. Using a generic mass-radius relationship, we find that only two pairs of planets in these candidate systems (out of 761 pairs total) appear to be on Hill-unstable orbits, indicating ~96% of the candidate planetary systems are correctly interpreted as true systems. We find that planet pairs show little statistical preference to be near mean-motion resonances. We identify an asymmetry in the distribution of period ratios near first-order resonances (e.g., 2:1, 3:2), with an excess of planet pairs lying wide of resonance and relatively few lying narrow of resonance. Finally, based upon the transit duration ratios of adjacent planets in each system, we find that the interior planet tends to have a smaller transit impact parameter than the exterior planet does. This finding suggests that the mode of the mutual inclinations of planetary orbital planes is in the range 1.0-2.2 degrees, for the packed systems of small planets probed by these observations.

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arXiv2013

Identification of Background False Positives from Kepler Data

The Kepler Mission was launched on March 6, 2009 to perform a photometric survey of more than 100,000 dwarf stars to search for Earth-size planets with the transit technique. The reliability of the resulting planetary candidate list relies on the ability to identify and remove false positives. Major sources of astrophysical false positives are planetary transits and stellar eclipses on background stars. We describe several new techniques for the identification of background transit sources that are separated from their target stars, indicating an astrophysical false positive. These techniques use only Kepler photometric data. We describe the concepts and construction of these techniques in detail as well as their performance and relative merits.

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arXiv2012

Planet Hunters: New Kepler planet candidates from analysis of quarter 2

We present new planet candidates identified in NASA Kepler quarter two public release data by volunteers engaged in the Planet Hunters citizen science project. The two candidates presented here survive checks for false-positives, including examination of the pixel offset to constrain the possibility of a background eclipsing binary. The orbital periods of the planet candidates are 97.46 days (KIC 4552729) and 284.03 (KIC 10005758) days and the modeled planet radii are 5.3 and 3.8 R_Earth. The latter star has an additional known planet candidate with a radius of 5.05 R_Earth and a period of 134.49 which was detected by the Kepler pipeline. The discovery of these candidates illustrates the value of massively distributed volunteer review of the Kepler database to recover candidates which were otherwise uncatalogued.

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