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Natalie R. Hinkel

Publications and source records attributed to Natalie R. Hinkel.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

The Galactic Phosphorus Survey. I. Chemical Evolution across the Galactic Disk from $\sim$750 FGK Stars

Phosphorus (P) is an odd-$Z$ element produced primarily in massive stars and is also important for planetary chemistry as an element essential to life. However, its evolution over cosmic time remains poorly constrained because precise and homogeneous stellar P measurements are scarce. We determine the relationship between [P/Fe] and [Fe/H] over a range of metallicities across the Galactic disk and assess its variation between different stellar populations using the largest uniformly analyzed sample to date, comprising $\sim$750 FGK stars with high-resolution near-infrared spectra. Stellar parameters are determined through a spectro-photometric approach and P abundances are derived by fitting synthetic spectra to the P~I 10529.52~Å absorption feature. We confirm that [P/Fe] increases toward lower metallicities down to [Fe/H] $\sim$ -1.0 dex, where it appears to peak, broadly resembling the rise seen in $α$-element abundance ratios over the same metallicity range and supporting a dominant contribution from massive stars on short core-collapse supernova timescales. When separating the sample into Galactic disk populations, thick-disk stars are systematically enhanced in [P/Fe] relative to the thin disk by $\sim$0.08 dex at fixed metallicity. We also measure a radial [P/Fe] gradient of $-0.124 \pm 0.006$ dex kpc$^{-1}$ and a vertical gradient of $+0.052 \pm 0.007$ dex kpc$^{-1}$. Although current chemical evolution models struggle to reproduce the observed trends, this survey increases the number of homogeneously measured stellar P abundances by approximately a factor of three, providing a new benchmark for Galactic chemical evolution models and the phosphorus inventory available to planetary systems.

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Spectral Energy Distribution Analysis for Habitable Worlds Observatory Target Stars

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will directly image and characterize planets potentially similar to Earth orbiting nearby stars. Accurate stellar properties, particularly effective temperatures ($T_\mathrm{eff}$), angular diameters ($θ_\star$), and bolometric fluxes ($F_\mathrm{bol}$), are essential for reliable Habitable Zone (HZ) calculations, exoplanet yield predictions, and coronagraph design trade studies. We present a spectral energy distribution (SED) analysis for the 164 stars from the HWO Exoplanet Exploration Program (ExEP) list, using $χ^2$-minimization fits of empirical spectral templates from the Pickles stellar spectral flux library to broadband photometric data. The SED fits provide direct measurements of $F_\mathrm{bol}$. We adopt spectroscopic $T_\mathrm{eff}$ values from the PASTEL catalog for 127 of the 164 stars, with the remainder drawn from the HWO ExEP catalog, and use these in combination with $F_\mathrm{bol}$ to calculate $θ_\star$ via the Stefan-Boltzmann equation. As a consistency check, we compare the Pickles template $T_\mathrm{eff}$ with the adopted spectroscopic values and find agreement to within $\sim$3% for 65% of the sample, with a systematic tendency for the templates to yield cooler values. We identify 48 stars with discrepancies exceeding 200~K, including close binary systems where photometric contamination compromises the SED solution. We discuss the implications for HZ boundary calculations, atmospheric retrieval of directly imaged planets, and target prioritization for HWO. This SED catalog constitutes a uniform set of empirically determined $F_\mathrm{bol}$ values and associated stellar parameters for the HWO target sample.

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HWO Target Stars and Systems: Activity and Rotation Catalog (ARC) of Potential Target Stars for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

A major goal of the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) is to precisely characterize exoplanets and their atmospheres. However, magnetic activity from an exoplanet's host star can complicate measurements of both the stellar and planetary properties, and stellar activity can be an important factor in our interpretation of the evolutionary history of an exoplanet. In this work, we assess the extent to which magnetic activity has been characterized for potential HWO target stars by collating archival measurements of relevant observables as published in a broad range of photometric and spectroscopic datasets. We describe our data collection strategy, provide an overview of currently known activity and rotation properties in the Activity and Rotation Catalog (ARC) for potential HWO target stars, and briefly review known relationships between stellar inclination, rotation, activity, and age. Overall, we find that stellar activity (S-index and R'HK) and rotation (v sin i and Prot) properties have been measured for at least 70% systems that are currently of high interest as potential HWO atmospheric characterization targets. However, stellar activity is temporal in nature, such that activity properties should be regularly monitored in order to remain up-to-date for informing future observations. In particular, we find that stellar activity cycles are measured for fewer than 20% of high interest potential HWO target stars. Measuring a star's activity cycle is critical for anticipating times when higher levels of magnetic activity may occur during planned HWO observations, which may interfere with measuring precise exoplanet atmospheric characteristics.

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SPORES-HWO. II. Companion Mass Limits and Updated Planet Properties for 120 Future Exoplanet Imaging Targets from 35 yr of Precise Doppler Monitoring

A goal of the future Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) is to directly image and spectroscopically characterize true Earth-analogs. However, if a large fraction of HWO target stars host unknown dynamically disruptive giant planets in their habitable zones (HZs), then additional targets that are farther away will need to be surveyed, potentially requiring a larger-aperture telescope and a coronagraph with a smaller inner working angle. Therefore, the sooner we constrain the presence of massive planets orbiting potential HWO target stars, the easier and less costly it will be to adjust key aspects of HWO's architecture. In this work, we uniformly analyze over 153,000 public radial velocity (RV) observations of 120 potential HWO target stars to derive mass limits on planetary companions. The RVs were measured by 23 spectrographs located at 15 observatories around the world, with the first observations going back to 1987. Based on empirical search completeness tests, we determine that undetected Jupiter-mass (Saturn-mass) planets may be hiding in up to 38% (53%) of the HZs of targets in the ExEP Mission Star List. The median mass sensitivity limit in the middle of the conservative HZ is approximately 48 $\rm M_\oplus$. We also provide updated parameters for 53 known companions, and we detect at least 26 additional RV signals corresponding to stellar activity and 4 signals that are planet candidates. We note that 44 of the ExEP stars lack substantial RV monitoring history, and we advocate for community-coordinated observing campaigns of these stars using moderate-precision RV facilities.

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HWO Target Stars and Systems: A Prioritized Community List of Potential Stellar Targets for the Habitable Worlds Observatory's ExoEarth Survey

The HWO Target Stars and Systems 2025 (TSS25) list is a community-developed catalog of potential stellar targets for the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) in its survey to directly image Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone. The TSS25 list categorizes potential HWO targets into priority tiers based on their likelihood to be surveyed and the necessity of obtaining observations of their stellar properties prior to the launch of the mission. This target list builds upon previous efforts to identify direct imaging targets and incorporates the results of multiple yield calculations assessing the science return of current design concepts for HWO. The TSS25 list identifies a sample of target stars that have a high probability to be observed by HWO (Tiers 1 and 2), independent of assumptions about the mission's final architecture. These stars should be the focus of community precursor science efforts in order to mitigate risks and maximize the science output of HWO. This target list is publicly available and is a living catalog that will be continually updated leading up to the mission.

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HWO Target Stars and Systems: A Survey of Archival UV and X-ray Data

We assess archival high-energy data for key stars on the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) Target Stars and Systems 2025 list, as stellar radiation is critical to shaping and interpreting planetary atmospheres. Using a sample of 98 nearby stars (HWO Tier 1 targets), we compile and evaluate X-ray and ultraviolet (UV) data from archival eROSITA, Chandra, XMM-Newton, ROSAT, EUVE, Swift, FUSE, IUE, GALEX, and HST. We examine spectral and temporal coverage, assess data quality, and identify major gaps. UV data are moderately available, with most coverage coming from near-UV spectra from IUE. Far fewer stars have far-UV spectra, especially from HST. In the X-ray regime, some stars have high-quality spectra, while others are limited to shallow detections or broad-band photometry. A small fraction of the sample has both X-ray and UV spectra of sufficient quality to support full spectral energy distribution modeling. Truly comprehensive coverage across X-ray, extreme-UV, and both UV bands remains extremely rare. Most datasets are single-epoch, limiting assessments of variability and flares - key factors in atmospheric photochemistry and escape. Moreover, the lack of simultaneous or contemporaneous observations across bands adds further uncertainty. Our findings underscore the need for new space-based missions and coordinated multiwavelength campaigns, ideally with overlapping coverage, to improve stellar characterization for HWO. As several key observatories age and face potential decommissioning, there is a narrow window of opportunity to secure these critical data. Investing in this effort now will directly support the science goals of HWO and enhance future studies of planetary habitability.

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Utilizing Machine Learning to Predict Host Stars and the Key Elemental Abundances of Small Planets

Stars and their associated planets originate from the same cloud of gas and dust, making a star's elemental composition a valuable indicator for indirectly studying planetary compositions. While the connection between a star's iron (Fe) abundance and the presence of giant exoplanets is established (e.g. Gonzalez 1997; Fischer & Valenti 2005), the relationship with small planets remains unclear. The elements Mg, Si, and Fe are important in forming small planets. Employing machine learning algorithms like XGBoost, trained on the abundances (e.g., the Hypatia Catalog, Hinkel et al. 2014) of known exoplanet-hosting stars (NASA Exoplanet Archive), allows us to determine significant "features" (abundances or molar ratios) that may indicate the presence of small planets. We test on three groups of exoplanets: (a) all small, R$_{P}$ $<$ 3.5 $R_{\oplus}$, (b) sub-Neptunes, 2.0 $R_{\oplus}$ $<$ R$_{P}$ $<$ 3.5 $R_{\oplus}$, and (c) super-Earths, 1.0 $R_{\oplus}$ $<$ R$_{P}$ $<$ 2.0 $R_{\oplus}$ -- each subdivided into 7 ensembles to test different combinations of features. We created a list of stars with $\geq90\%$ probability of hosting small planets across all ensembles and experiments ("overlap stars"). We found abundance trends for stars hosting small planets, possibly indicating star-planet chemical interplay during formation. We also found that Na and V are key features regardless of planetary radii. We expect our results to underscore the importance of elements in exoplanet formation and machine learning's role in target selection for future NASA missions: e.g., the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (NGRST), Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) -- all of which are aimed at small planet detection.

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Two Earth-size Planets and an Earth-size Candidate Transiting the Nearby Star HD 101581

We report the validation of multiple planets transiting the nearby ($d = 12.8$ pc) K5V dwarf HD 101581 (GJ 435, TOI-6276, TIC 397362481). The system consists of at least two Earth-size planets whose orbits are near a mutual 4:3 mean-motion resonance, HD 101581 b ($R_{p} = 0.956_{-0.061}^{+0.063}~R_{\oplus}$, $P = 4.47$ days) and HD 101581 c ($R_{p} = 0.990_{-0.070}^{+0.070}~R_{\oplus}$, $P = 6.21$ days). Both planets were discovered in Sectors 63 and 64 TESS observations and statistically validated with supporting ground-based follow-up. We also identify a signal that probably originates from a third transiting planet, TOI-6276.03 ($R_{p} = 0.982_{-0.098}^{+0.114}~R_{\oplus}$, $P = 7.87$ days). These planets are remarkably uniform in size and their orbits are evenly spaced, representing a prime example of the "peas-in-a-pod" architecture seen in other compact multi-planet systems. At $V = 7.77$, HD 101581 is the brightest star known to host multiple transiting planets smaller than $1.5~R_{\oplus}$. HD 101581 is a promising system for atmospheric characterization and comparative planetology of small planets.

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Database Design for SpExoDisks: A Database & Web Portal for Spectra of Exoplanet-Forming Disks

Data access -- or the availability of new and archival data for use by the larger community -- is key for scientific advancement. How data is presented, searched, and formatted determines accessibility and it can be difficult to find a solution that fits the needs of a given subdiscipline. We present a generalized roadmap for developing a specialty astronomy database with web application based on the development of the SpExoDisks (Spectra of Exoplanet forming Disks) database (spexodisks.com), which provides infrared spectra of protoplanetary disks. Expertise in an astronomy subdiscipline can provide two necessary components for creating a database: access to a large volume of specialized data and knowledge of how that data should be presented to the community. However, there are a variety of steps and decisions for database development that can fall outside astronomy expertise. Here we offer generalized discussions on design and process that are accompanied by real-world examples from the SpExoDisks developer team and website. Starting from the database portal design and data organization, we demonstrate on-demand data distribution and query using publicly accessible database software. These systems support interactive visualizations such that users can explore spectra directly from their browsers. We also offer details that show how the technical concepts in SpExoDisks are implemented, particularly emphasizing sustainability and long-term management of the codebase and processes. Finally, we illustrate the utility that a specialty website can offer to the community by providing a specific example of how the combined spectra from SpExoDisks can enhance our understanding of protoplanetary disks.

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High-resolution Elemental Abundance Measurements of Cool JWST Planet Hosts Using AutoSpecFit: An Application to the Sub-Neptune K2-18b's Host M dwarf

We present an in-depth, high-resolution spectroscopic analysis of the M dwarf K2-18 that hosts a sub-Neptune exoplanet in its habitable zone. We show our technique to accurately normalize the observed spectrum, which is crucial for a proper spectral fitting. We also introduce a new automatic, line-by-line model-fitting code, AutoSpecFit, that performs an iterative $χ^{2}$ minimization process to measure individual elemental abundances of cool dwarfs. We apply this code to the star K2-18, and measure the abundance of 10 elements - C, O, Na, Mg, Al, K, Ca, Sc, Ti, and Fe. We find these abundances moderately supersolar, except for Fe with a slightly subsolar abundance. The accuracy of the inferred abundances is limited by the systematic errors due to uncertain stellar parameters. We also derive the abundance ratios associated with several planet-building elements such as Al/Mg, Ca/Mg, Fe/Mg, and (a solar-like) C/O=0.568 $\pm$ 0.026, which can be used to constrain the chemical composition and the formation location of the exoplanet. On the other hand, the planet K2-18 b has attracted considerable interest, given the JWST measurements of its atmospheric composition. Early JWST studies reveal an unusual chemistry for the atmosphere of this planet, which is unlikely to be driven by formation in a disk of unusual composition. The comparison between the chemical abundances of K2-18 b from future JWST analyses and those of the host star can provide fundamental insights into the formation of this planetary system.

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The TEMPO Survey II: Science Cases Leveraged from a Proposed 30-Day Time Domain Survey of the Orion Nebula with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope

The TEMPO (Transiting Exosatellites, Moons, and Planets in Orion) Survey is a proposed 30-day observational campaign using the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. By providing deep, high-resolution, short-cadence infrared photometry of a dynamic star-forming region, TEMPO will investigate the demographics of exosatellites orbiting free-floating planets and brown dwarfs -- a largely unexplored discovery space. Here, we present the simulated detection yields of three populations: extrasolar moon analogs orbiting free-floating planets, exosatellites orbiting brown dwarfs, and exoplanets orbiting young stars. Additionally, we outline a comprehensive range of anticipated scientific outcomes accompanying such a survey. These science drivers include: obtaining observational constraints to test prevailing theories of moon, planet, and star formation; directly detecting widely separated exoplanets orbiting young stars; investigating the variability of young stars and brown dwarfs; constraining the low-mass end of the stellar initial mass function; constructing the distribution of dust in the Orion Nebula and mapping evolution in the near-infrared extinction law; mapping emission features that trace the shocked gas in the region; constructing a dynamical map of Orion members using proper motions; and searching for extragalactic sources and transients via deep extragalactic observations reaching a limiting magnitude of $m_{AB}=29.7$\,mag (F146 filter).

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Abundances of Elements in Solar Systems

The relationship between stars and planets provides important information for understanding the interior composition, mineralogy, and overall classification of small planets (R $\lesssim$ 3.5R$_{\oplus}$). Since stars and planets are formed at the same time and from the same material, their compositions are inextricably linked to one another, especially with respect refractory elements like Mg, Si, and Fe. As a result, stellar elemental abundances can help break the degeneracy inherent to planetary mass-radius models and determine whether planets may be similar to the Earth in composition or if additional factors, such as formation near the host star or a giant impact, may have influenced the planet's make-up. To this end, we now have observations of the abundances of extrasolar rocks that were pulled onto the surfaces of a white dwarfs, whose compositions act as a direct insight into the interiors of small exoplanets. From measurements of $\sim$30 of these "polluted" white dwarfs, we have found that composition of the extrasolar rocks are similar to Solar System chondritic meteorites.

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Host Stars and How Their Compositions Influence Exoplanets

It has become a common practice within the exoplanet field to say that "to know the star is to know the planet." The properties of the host star have a strong, direct influence on the interior and surface conditions of the orbiting planet and oftentimes measurements of planetary properties are made relative to the star's properties. Not only are observational measurements of the star necessary to determine even the most basic aspects of the planet (such as mass and radius), but the stellar environment influences how the planet evolves. Therefore, in this chapter, we begin by discussing the basics of stars, providing an overview of stellar formation, structure, photon and particle emissions, and evolution. Next, we go over the possible ways to determine the age of a star. We then outline how different kinds of stars are distributed within the Milky Way galaxy. Afterwards, we explain how to measure the composition of stars and the underlying math inherent to those observations, including caveats that are important when using the data for research applications. Finally, we explain the underlying physics and observations that enable stellar composition to be used as a proxy for planetary composition. In addition, given that this chapter focuses more on astronomy/astrophysics and uses a variety of important terms that may not be familiar to all readers, we have defined many terms either within the text or as a footnote for better interdisciplinary comprehension.

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TESS Hunt for Young and Maturing Exoplanets (THYME) XI: An Earth-sized Planet Orbiting a Nearby, Solar-like Host in the 400Myr Ursa Major Moving Group

Young terrestrial worlds are critical test beds to constrain prevailing theories of planetary formation and evolution. We present the discovery of HD 63433d - a nearby (22pc), Earth-sized planet transiting a young sunlike star (TOI-1726, HD 63433). HD 63433d is the third planet detected in this multiplanet system. The kinematic, rotational, and abundance properties of the host star indicate that it belongs to the young (414 $\pm$ 23 Myr) Ursa Major moving group, whose membership we update using new data from Gaia DR3 and TESS. Our transit analysis of the TESS light curves indicates that HD 63433 d has a radius of 1.1 $R_\oplus$ and closely orbits its host star with a period of 4.2 days. To date, HD 63433 d is the smallest confirmed exoplanet with an age less than 500 Myr, and the nearest young Earth-sized planet. Furthermore, the apparent brightness of the stellar host (V $\approx$ 6.9 mag) makes this transiting multiplanet system favorable to further investigations, including spectroscopic follow-up to probe atmospheric loss in a young Earth-sized world.

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The Nominal Range of Rocky Planet Masses, Radii, Surface Gravities and Bulk Densities

The two primary observable quantities of an exoplanet--its mass and radius--alone are not sufficient to probe a rocky exoplanet's interior composition and mineralogy. To overcome this, host-star abundances of the primary planet-building elements (Mg, Si, Fe) are typically used as a proxy for the planet's bulk composition. The majority of small exoplanet hosts, however, do not have available abundance data. Here we present the open-source ExoPlex mass-radius-composition solver. Unlike previous open-source mass-radius solvers, ExoPlex calculates the core chemistry and equilibrium mantle mineralogy for a bulk composition, including effects of mantle FeO content, core light elements and surface water/ice. We utilize ExoPlex to calculate the planetary radii, surface gravities and bulk densities for 10$^6$ model planets up to 2 R$_\oplus$ across these geochemistries, adopting the distribution of FGK stellar abundances to estimate of the range of bulk exoplanet compositions. We outline the $99.7\%$ distribution of radii, surface gravity and bulk densities that define planets as "nominally rocky." Planets outside this range require compositions outside those expected from stellar abundance data, likely making them either Fe-enriched super-Mercuries, or volatile-enriched mini-Neptunes. We apply our classification scheme to a sample of 85 well-resolved exoplanets without available host-star abundances. We estimate only 9 planets are within the "nominally rocky planet zone" at $>70\%$ confidence, while $\sim20\%$ and $\sim30\%$ of this sample can be reasonably classified as super-Mercuries or volatile-rich, respectively. Our results provide observers with a self-consistent way to broadly classify a planet as likely rocky, Mercury-like or volatile-enriched, using mass and radius measurements alone.

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HD 20329b: An ultra-short-period planet around a solar-type star found by TESS

We used TESS light curves and HARPS-N spectrograph radial velocity measurements to establish the physical properties of the transiting exoplanet candidate found around the star HD 20329 (TOI-4524). We performed a joint fit of the light curves and radial velocity time series to measure the mass, radius, and orbital parameters of the candidate. We confirm and characterize HD 20329b, an ultra-short-period (USP) planet transiting a solar-type star. The host star (HD 20329, $V = 8.74$ mag, $J = 7.5$ mag) is characterized by its G5 spectral type with $\mathrm{M}_\star= 0.90 \pm 0.05$ M$_\odot$, $\mathrm{R}_\star = 1.13 \pm 0.02$ R$_\odot$, and $\mathrm{T}_{\mathrm{eff}} = 5596 \pm 50$ K; it is located at a distance $d= 63.68 \pm 0.29$ pc. By jointly fitting the available TESS transit light curves and follow-up radial velocity measurements, we find an orbital period of $0.9261 \pm (0.5\times 10^{-4})$ days, a planetary radius of $1.72 \pm 0.07$ $\mathrm{R}_\oplus$, and a mass of $7.42 \pm 1.09$ $\mathrm{M}_\oplus$, implying a mean density of $ρ_\mathrm{p} = 8.06 \pm 1.53$ g cm$^{-3}$. HD 20329b joins the $\sim$30 currently known USP planets with radius and Doppler mass measurements.

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A Concise Treatise on Converting Stellar Mass Fractions to Abundances to Molar Ratios

Understanding stellar composition is fundamental not only to our comprehension of the galaxy, especially chemical evolution, but it can also shed light on the interior structure and mineralogy of exoplanets, which are formed from the same material as their host stars. Unfortunately, the underlying mathematics describing stellar mass fractions and stellar elemental abundances is difficult to parse, fragmented across the literature, and contains vexing omissions that makes any calculation far from trivial, especially for non-experts. In this treatise, we present clear mathematical formalism and clarification of inherent assumptions and normalizations within stellar composition measurements, which facilitates the conversion from stellar mass fractions to elemental abundances to molar ratios, including error propagation. We also provide an example case study of HIP 544 to further illustrate the provided equations. Given the important chemical association between stars, as well as the interdisciplinary relationship between stars and their planets, it is vital that stellar mass fractions and abundance data be more transparent and accessible to people within different sub-fields and scientific disciplines.

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Final Report for SAG 22: A Target Star Archive for Exoplanet Science

Present and upcoming NASA missions will be intensively observing a selected, partially overlapping set of stars for exoplanet studies. Key physical and chemical information about these stars and their systems is needed for planning observations and interpreting the results. A target star archive of such data would benefit a wide cross-section of the exoplanet community by enhancing the chances of mission success and improving the efficiency of mission observatories. It would also provide a common, accessible resource for scientific analysis based on standardized assumptions, while revealing gaps or deficiencies in existing knowledge of stellar properties necessary for exoplanetary system characterization.

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