arXiv subjects

Natarajan Gautam

Publications and source records attributed to Natarajan Gautam.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

On the Distribution of Age of Information in Time-varying Updating Systems

Age of Information (AoI) is a crucial metric for quantifying information freshness in real-time systems where the sampling rate of data packets is time-varying. Evaluating AoI under such conditions is challenging, as system states become temporally correlated and traditional stationary analysis is inapplicable. We investigate an $M_{t}/G/1/1$ queueing system with a time-varying sampling rate and probabilistic preemption, proposing a novel analytical framework based on multi-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) to capture the time evolution of the system's status distribution. To solve the PDEs, we develop a decomposition technique that breaks the high-dimensional PDE into lower-dimensional subsystems. Solving these subsystems allows us to derive the Aol distribution at arbitrary time instances. We show AoI does not exhibit a memoryless property, even with negligible processing times, due to its dependence on the historical sampling process. Our framework extends to the stationary setting, where we derive a closed-form expression for the Laplace-Stieltjes Transform (LST) of the steady-state AoI. Numerical experiments reveal AoI exhibits a non-trivial lag in response to sampling rate changes. Our results also show that no single preemption probability or processing time distribution can minimize Aol violation probability across all thresholds in either time-varying or stationary scenarios. Finally, we formulate an optimization problem and propose a heuristic method to find sampling rates that reduce costs while satisfying AoI constraints.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2025

Learning for Interval Prediction of Electricity Demand: A Cluster-based Bootstrapping Approach

Accurate predictions of electricity demands are necessary for managing operations in a small aggregation load setting like a Microgrid. Due to low aggregation, the electricity demands can be highly stochastic and point estimates would lead to inflated errors. Interval estimation in this scenario, would provide a range of values within which the future values might lie and helps quantify the errors around the point estimates. This paper introduces a residual bootstrap algorithm to generate interval estimates of day-ahead electricity demand. A machine learning algorithm is used to obtain the point estimates of electricity demand and respective residuals on the training set. The obtained residuals are stored in memory and the memory is further partitioned. Days with similar demand patterns are grouped in clusters using an unsupervised learning algorithm and these clusters are used to partition the memory. The point estimates for test day are used to find the closest cluster of similar days and the residuals are bootstrapped from the chosen cluster. This algorithm is evaluated on the real electricity demand data from EULR(End Use Load Research) and is compared to other bootstrapping methods for varying confidence intervals.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Hierarchical Semi-Markov Models with Duration-Aware Dynamics for Activity Sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-minute resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov \emph{router} learns the patterns of ``which activity comes next." Second, a semi-Markov \emph{hazard} component explicitly models activity durations, capturing ``how long" activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

Age of Information for Single Buffer Systems with Vacation Server

In this research, we study the information freshness in M/G/1 queueing system with a single buffer and the server taking multiple vacations. This system has wide applications in communication systems. We aim to evaluate the information freshness in this system with both i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. vacations under three different scheduling policies, namely Conventional Buffer System (CBS), Buffer Relaxation System (BRS), and Conventional Buffer System with Preemption in Service (CBS-P). For the systems with i.i.d. vacations, we derive the closed-form expressions of information freshness metrics such as the expected Age of Information (AoI), the expected Peak Age of Information (PAoI), and the variance of peak age under each policy. For systems with non-i.i.d. vacations, we use the polling system as an example and provide the closed-form expression of its PAoI under each policy. We explore the conditions under which one of these policies has advantages over the others for each information freshness metric. We further perform numerical studies to validate our results and develop insights.

cs.PF↗

arXiv2021

Routing Problem for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Patrolling Missions -- A Progressive Hedging Algorithm

The paper presents a two-stage stochastic program to model a routing problem involving an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) in the context of patrolling missions. In particular, given a set of targets and a set of supplemental targets corresponding to each target, the first stage decisions involve finding the sequence in which the vehicle has to visit the set of targets. Upon reaching each target, the UAV collects information and if the operator of the UAV deems that the information collected is not of sufficient fidelity, then the UAV has to visit all the supplemental targets corresponding to that target to collect additional information before proceeding to visit the next target. The problem is solved using a progressive hedging algorithm and extensive computational results corroborating the effectiveness of the proposed model and the solution methodology is presented.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Peak Age of Information in Priority Queueing Systems

We consider a priority queueing system where a single processor serves k classes of packets that are generated randomly following Poisson processes. Our objective is to compute the expected Peak Age of Information (PAoI) under various scenarios. In particular, we consider two situations where the buffer size at each queue is one and infinite, and in the infinite buffer size case we consider First Come First Serve (FCFS) and Last Come First Serve (LCFS) as service disciplines. For the system with buffer size one at each queue, we derive PAoI exactly for the case of exponential service time and bounds (which are excellent approximations) for the case of general service time, with small k. For the system with infinite buffer size, we provide closed-form expressions of PAoI for both FCFS and LCFS where service time is general and k could be large. Using those results we investigated the effect of ordering of priorities and service disciplines for the various scenarios. We perform extensive numerical studies to validate our results and develop insights.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2020

On Competitive Analysis for Polling Systems

Polling systems have been widely studied, however most of these studies focus on polling systems with renewal processes for arrivals and random variables for service times. There is a need driven by practical applications to study polling systems with arbitrary arrivals (not restricted to time-varying or in batches) and revealed service time upon a job's arrival. To address that need, our work considers a polling system with generic setting and for the first time provides the worst-case analysis for online scheduling policies in this system. We provide conditions for the existence of constant competitive ratios, and competitive lower bounds for general scheduling policies in polling systems. Our work also bridges the queueing and scheduling communities by proving the competitive ratios for several well-studied policies in the queueing literature, such as cyclic policies with exhaustive, gated or l-limited service disciplines for polling systems.

cs.PF↗

arXiv2013

Opportunities for Network Coding: To Wait or Not to Wait

It has been well established that wireless network coding can significantly improve the efficiency of multi-hop wireless networks. However, in a stochastic environment some of the packets might not have coding pairs, which limits the number of available coding opportunities. In this context, an important decision is whether to delay packet transmission in hope that a coding pair will be available in the future or transmit a packet without coding. The paper addresses this problem by formulating a stochastic dynamic program whose objective is to minimize the long-run average cost per unit time incurred due to transmissions and delays. In particular, we identify optimal control actions that would balance between costs of transmission against the costs incurred due to the delays. Moreover, we seek to address a crucial question: what should be observed as the state of the system? We analytically show that observing queue lengths suffices if the system can be modeled as a Markov decision process. We also show that a stationary threshold type policy based on queue lengths is optimal. We further substantiate our results with simulation experiments for more generalized settings.

math.OC↗

arXiv2009

Critically loaded multi-server queues with abandonments, retrials, and time-varying parameters

In this paper, we consider modeling time-dependent multi-server queues that include abandonments and retrials. For the performance analysis of those, fluid and diffusion models called "strong approximations" have been widely used in the literature. Although they are proven to be asymptotically exact, their effectiveness as approximations in critically loaded regimes needs to be investigated. To that end, we find that existing fluid and diffusion approximations might be either inaccurate under simplifying assumptions or computationally intractable. To address that concern, this paper focuses on developing a methodology by adjusting the fluid and diffusion models so that they significantly improve the estimation accuracy. We illustrate the accuracy of our adjusted models by performing a number of numerical experiments.

math.PR↗

arXiv2009

Effectively tailoring fluid and diffusion models for non-stationary state-dependent queueing systems

In this paper, we consider queueing systems where the dynamics are non-stationary and state-dependent. For performance analysis of these systems, fluid and diffusion models have been typically used. Although they are proven to be asymptotically exact, their effectiveness as approximations in the non-asymptotic regime needs to be investigated. We find that existing fluid and diffusion approximations might be either inaccurate under simplifying assumptions or computationally intractable. To address this concern, this paper focuses on developing a methodology based on adjusting the fluid model so that it provides exact mean queue lengths. Further, we provide a computationally tractable algorithm that exploits Gaussian density in order to obtain performance measures of the system. We illustrate the accuracy of our algorithm using a wide variety of numerical experiments.

math.PR↗

arXiv2009

Multipath Wireless Network Coding: A Population Game Perspective

We consider wireless networks in which multiple paths are available between each source and destination. We allow each source to split traffic among all of its available paths, and ask the question: how do we attain the lowest possible number of transmissions to support a given traffic matrix? Traffic bound in opposite directions over two wireless hops can utilize the ``reverse carpooling'' advantage of network coding in order to decrease the number of transmissions used. We call such coded hops as ``hyper-links''. With the reverse carpooling technique longer paths might be cheaper than shorter ones. However, there is a prisoners dilemma type situation among sources -- the network coding advantage is realized only if there is traffic in both directions of a shared path. We develop a two-level distributed control scheme that decouples user choices from each other by declaring a hyper-link capacity, allowing sources to split their traffic selfishly in a distributed fashion, and then changing the hyper-link capacity based on user actions. We show that such a controller is stable, and verify our analytical insights by simulation.

cs.GT↗