Nathalia M. N. da Rocha

arXiv2026

Future Perspectives on Black Hole Jet Mechanisms: Insights from Next-Generation Observatories and Theoretical Developments

Black hole jets represent one of the most extreme manifestations of astrophysical processes, linking accretion physics, relativistic magnetohydrodynamics, and large-scale feedback in galaxies and clusters. Despite decades of observational and theoretical work, the mechanisms governing jet launching, collimation, and energy dissipation remain open questions. In this article, we discuss how upcoming facilities such as the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (LSST), and the Whole Earth Blazar Telescope (WEBT) will provide unprecedented constraints on jet dynamics, variability, and multi-wavelength signatures. Furthermore, we highlight theoretical challenges, including the role of magnetically arrested disks (MADs), plasma microphysics, and general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations in shaping our understanding of jet formation. By combining high-resolution imaging, time-domain surveys, and advanced simulations, the next decade promises transformative progress in unveiling the physics of black hole jets.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

On the True Significance of the Hubble Tension: A Bayesian Error Decomposition Accounting for Information Loss

The Hubble tension, a persistent discrepancy between early and late Universe measurements of $H_0$, poses a significant challenge to the standard cosmological model. In this work, we present a new Bayesian hierarchical framework designed to meticulously decompose this observed tension into its constituent parts: standard measurement errors, information loss arising from parameter-space projection, and genuine physical tension. Our approach, employing Fisher matrix analysis with MCMC-estimated loss coefficients and explicitly modeling information loss via variance inflation factors ($λ$), is particularly important in high-precision analysis where even seemingly small information losses can impact conclusions. We find that the real tension component ($T_{real}$) has a mean value of 5.94 km/s/Mpc (95\% CI: [3.32, 8.64] km/s/Mpc). Quantitatively, approximately 78\% of the observed tension variance is attributed to real tension, 13\% to measurement error, and 9\% to information loss. Despite this, our decomposition indicates that the observed $\sim$$6.39σ$ discrepancy is predominantly a real physical phenomenon, with real tension contributing $\sim$$5.64σ$. Our findings strongly suggest that the Hubble tension is robust and probably points toward new physics beyond the $Λ$CDM model.

astro-ph.CO↗