Nathan Engelman Lado | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Optimal Solar Investment and Operation under Asymmetric Net Metering

We examine the joint investment and operational decisions of a prosumer, a customer who both consumes and generates electricity, under net energy metering (NEM) tariffs. Traditional NEM schemes provide temporally flat compensation at the retail price for net energy exports over a billing period. However, ongoing reforms in several U.S. states are introducing time-varying prices and asymmetric import/export compensation to better align incentives with grid costs. While prior studies treat PV capacity as exogenous and focus primarily on consumption behavior, this work endogenizes PV investment and derives the marginal value of solar capacity for a flexible prosumer under asymmetric NEM tariffs. We characterize optimal investment and show how optimal investment changes with prices and PV costs. Through this analysis, we identify a PV effect: changes in NEM pricing in one period can influence net demand and consumption in generating periods with unchanged prices through adjustments in optimal PV investment. The PV effect weakens the ability of higher import prices to increase prosumer payments, with direct implications for NEM reform. We validate our theoretical results in a case study using simulated household and tariff data derived from historical conditions in Massachusetts.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

When Do Consumers Lose from Variable Electricity Pricing?

Time-varying electricity pricing better reflects the varying cost of electricity compared to flat-rate pricing. Variations between peak and off-peak costs are increasing due to weather variation, renewable intermittency, and increasing electrification of demand. Empirical and theoretical studies suggest that variable pricing can lower electricity supply costs and reduce grid stress. However, the distributional impacts, particularly on low-income consumers, remain understudied. This paper develops a theoretical framework to analyze how consume heterogeneity affects welfare outcomes when electricity markets transition from flat-rate to time-varying pricing, considering realistic assumptions about heterogeneous consumer demand, supply costs, and utility losses from unmet consumption. We derive sufficient conditions for identifying when consumers lose utility from pricing reforms and compare welfare effects across consumer types. Our findings reveal that consumer vulnerability depends on the interaction of consumption timing, demand flexibility capabilities, and price sensitivity levels. Consumers with high peak-period consumption and inflexible demand, characteristics often associated with low-income households, are most vulnerable to welfare losses. Critically, we demonstrate that demand flexibility provides welfare protection only when coincident with large price changes. Our equilibrium analysis reveals that aggregate flexibility patterns generate spillover effects through pricing mechanisms, with peak periods experiencing greater price changes when they have less aggregate flexibility, potentially concentrating larger price increases among vulnerable populations that have a limited ability to respond. These findings suggest that variable pricing policies should be accompanied by targeted policies ensuring equitable access to demand response capabilities and pricing benefits.

econ.GN↗