arXiv subjects

Nathan Golovich

Publications and source records attributed to Nathan Golovich.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

An Automated Probabilistic Asteroid Prediscovery Pipeline

We present an automated and probabilistic method to make prediscovery detections of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) in archival survey images, with the goal of reducing orbital uncertainty immediately after discovery. We refit the Minor Planet Center's astrometry and propagate the full six-parameter covariance to survey epochs to define search regions. We build low-threshold source catalogs for viable images and evaluate every detected source in a search region as a candidate prediscovery. We eliminate false positives by refitting a new orbit to each candidate and probabilistically linking detections across images using a likelihood ratio. Applied to Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) imaging, we identify approximately 3000 recently discovered NEAs with prediscovery potential, including a doubling of the observational arc for about 500. We use archival ZTF imaging to make prediscovery detections of the potentially hazardous asteroid 2021 DG1, extending its arc by 2.5 yr and reducing future apparition sky plane uncertainty from many degrees to arcseconds. We also recover 2025 FU24 nearly 7 yr before its first known observation, when its sky plane uncertainty covers hundreds of square degrees across thousands of ZTF images. The method is survey agnostic and scalable, enabling rapid orbit refinement for new discoveries from Rubin, NEO Surveyor, and NEOMIR.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Multi-year stacking searches for solar system bodies

Digital tracking detects faint solar system bodies by stacking many images along hypothesized orbits, revealing objects that are undetectable in every individual exposure. Previous searches have been restricted to small areas and short time baselines. We present a general framework to quantify both sensitivity and computational requirements for digital tracking of nonlinear motion across the full sky over multi-year baselines. We start from matched-filter stacking and derive how signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) degrades with trial orbit mismatch, which leads to a metric tensor on orbital parameter space. The metric defines local Euclidean coordinates in which SNR loss is isotropic, and a covariant density that specifies the exact number of trial orbits needed for a chosen SNR tolerance. We validate the approach with Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) data, recovering known objects in blind searches that stack thousands of images over six years along billions of trial orbits. We quantify ZTF's sensitivity to populations beyond 5 au and show that stacking reaches most of the remaining Planet 9 parameter space. The computational demands of all-sky, multi-year tracking are extreme, but we demonstrate that time segmentation and image blurring greatly reduce orbit density at modest sensitivity cost. Stacking effectively boosts medium-aperture surveys to the Rubin Observatory single-exposure depth across the northern sky. Digital tracking in dense Rubin observations of a 10 sq. deg field is tractable and could detect trans-Neptunian objects to 27th magnitude in a single night, with deep drilling fields reaching fainter still.

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arXiv2025

Survey-Wide Asteroid Discovery with a High-Performance Computing Enabled Non-Linear Digital Tracking Framework

Modern astronomical surveys detect asteroids by linking together their appearances across multiple images taken over time. This approach faces limitations in detecting faint asteroids and handling the computational complexity of trajectory linking. We present a novel method that adapts ``digital tracking" - traditionally used for short-term linear asteroid motion across images - to work with large-scale synoptic surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin/LSST). Our approach combines hundreds of sparse observations of individual asteroids across their non-linear orbital paths to enhance detection sensitivity by several magnitudes. To address the computational challenges of processing massive data sets and dense orbital phase spaces, we developed a specialized high-performance computing architecture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through experiments that take advantage of the extensive computational resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This work enables the detection of significantly fainter asteroids in existing and future survey data, potentially increasing the observable asteroid population by orders of magnitude across different orbital families, from near-Earth objects (NEOs) to Kuiper belt objects (KBOs).

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arXiv2024

Investigating the mixing between two black hole populations in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA GWTC-3

We introduce a population model to analyze the mixing between hypothesised power-law and $\sim 35 M_\odot$ Gaussian bump black hole populations in the latest gravitational wave catalog, GWTC-3, estimating their co-location and separation. We find a relatively low level of mixing, $3.1^{+5.0}_{-3.1}\%$, between the power-law and Gaussian populations, compared to the percentage of mergers containing two Gaussian bump black holes, $5.0^{+3.2}_{-1.7}\%$. Our analysis indicates that black holes within the Gaussian bump are generally separate from the power-law population, with only a minor fraction engaging in mixing and contributing to the $\mathcal{M} \sim 14 M_\odot$ peak in the chirp mass. This leads us to identify a distinct population of Binary Gaussian Black Holes (BGBHs) that arise from mergers within the Gaussian bump. We suggest that current theories for the formation of the massive $35 M_\odot$ Gaussian bump population may need to reevaluate the underlying mechanisms that drive the preference for BGBHs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Spatially resolved microlensing timescale distributions across the Galactic bulge with the VVV survey

We analyze 1602 microlensing events found in the VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) near-infrared (NIR) survey data. We obtain spatially-resolved, efficiency-corrected timescale distributions across the Galactic bulge ($|\ell|<10^\circ,$ $|b|<5^\circ$), using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Spatially-resolved peaks and means of the timescale distributions, along with their marginal distributions in strips of longitude and latitude, are in agreement at a 1$σ$ level with predictions based on the Besançon model of the Galaxy. We find that the event timescales in the central bulge fields ($|\ell| < 5^\circ$) are on average shorter than the non-central ($|\ell| > 5^\circ$) fields, with the average peak of the lognormal timescale distribution at 23.6 $\pm$ 1.9 days for the central fields and 29.0 $\pm$ 3.0 days for the non-central fields. Our ability to probe the structure of the Bulge with this sample of NIR microlensing events is limited by the VVV survey's sparse cadence and relatively small number of detected microlensing events compared to dedicated optical surveys. Looking forward to future surveys, we investigate the capability of the Roman telescope to detect spatially-resolved asymmetries in the timescale distributions. We propose two pairs of Roman fields, centred on ($\ell = \pm 9,5^\circ$, $b=-0.125^\circ$) and ($\ell = -5^\circ$, $b=\pm 1.375^\circ$) as good targets to measure the asymmetry in longitude and latitude, respectively.

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arXiv2024

High-quality Extragalactic Legacy-field Monitoring (HELM) with DECam

High-quality Extragalactic Legacy-field Monitoring (HELM) is a long-term observing program that photometrically monitors several well-studied extragalactic legacy fields with the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) imager on the CTIO 4m Blanco telescope. Since Feb 2019, HELM has been monitoring regions within COSMOS, XMM-LSS, CDF-S, S-CVZ, ELAIS-S1, and SDSS Stripe 82 with few-day cadences in the $(u)gri(z)$ bands, over a collective sky area of $\sim 38$ deg${\rm ^2}$. The main science goal of HELM is to provide high-quality optical light curves for a large sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and to build decades-long time baselines when combining past and future optical light curves in these legacy fields. These optical images and light curves will facilitate the measurements of AGN reverberation mapping lags, as well as studies of AGN variability and its dependences on accretion properties. In addition, the time-resolved and coadded DECam photometry will enable a broad range of science applications from galaxy evolution to time-domain science. We describe the design and implementation of the program and present the first data release that includes source catalogs and the first $\sim 3.5$ years of light curves during 2019A--2022A.

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arXiv2023

Distribution of H-alpha Emitters in Merging Galaxy Clusters

Studies of star formation in various galaxy cluster mergers have reached apparently contradictory conclusions regarding whether mergers stimulate star formation, quench it, or have no effect. Because the mergers studied span a range of time since pericenter (TSP), it is possible that the apparent effect on star formation is a function of TSP. We use a sample of 12 bimodal mergers to assess the star formation as a function of TSP. We measure the equivalent width of the H-alpha emission line in ${\sim}100$ member galaxies in each merger, classify galaxies as emitters or non-emitters, and then classify emitters as star-forming galaxies (SFG) or active galactic nucleus (AGN) based on the [NII] $\lambda6583$ line. We quantify the distribution of SFG and AGN relative to non-emitters along the spatial axis defined by the subcluster separation. The SFG and AGN fractions vary from merger to merger, but show no trend with TSP. The spatial distribution of SFG is consistent with that of non-emitters in eight mergers, but show significant avoidance of the system center in the remaining four mergers, including the three with the lowest TSP. If there is a connection between star formation activity and TSP, probing it further will require more precise TSP estimates and more mergers with TSP in the range of 0-400 Myr.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

MEGASIM: Distribution and Detection of Earth Trojan Asteroids

Using N-body simulation results from the MEGASIM dataset, we present spatial distributions of Earth Trojan Asteroids and assess the detectability of the population in current and next-generation ground-based astronomical surveys (Yeager & Golovich 2022). Our high-fidelity Earth Trojan Asteroid (ETA) distribution maps show never-before-seen high-resolution spatial features that evolve over timescales up to 1 Gyr. The simulation was synchronized to start times and timelines of two observational astronomy surveys, 1) the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and 2) the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). We calculate upper limits for the number of ETAs potentially observable with both the ZTF and LSST surveys. Due to the Yarkovsky Effect, we find no stable ETAs on billion year timescales likely to be detected by any ETA survey, as no C-type or S-type ETAs (with $H<22$ and $H<24$, respectively) are likely to be stable on billion year timescales, and ETAs large enough to remain stable on billion year timescales are very rare relative to the rest of the ETA population. We find that a twilight ETA survey will not drastically increase the likelihood of individual ETA detection, but would provide orders of magnitude more observations of select ETA populations. The null detection to date from ZTF restricts the potential ETA population to hundreds of objects larger than 100 meters (at $H\approx22$, Lifset et al. 2021), while a null detection by LSST will further restrict the ETA population to tens of objects larger than 100 meters.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Disentangling the Black Hole Mass Spectrum with Photometric Microlensing Surveys

From the formation mechanisms of stars and compact objects to nuclear physics, modern astronomy frequently leverages surveys to understand populations of objects to answer fundamental questions. The population of dark and isolated compact objects in the Galaxy contains critical information related to many of these topics, but is only practically accessible via gravitational microlensing. However, photometric microlensing observables are degenerate for different types of lenses, and one can seldom classify an event as involving either a compact object or stellar lens on its own. To address this difficulty, we apply a Bayesian framework that treats lens type probabilistically and jointly with a lens population model. This method allows lens population characteristics to be inferred despite intrinsic uncertainty in the lens-class of any single event. We investigate this method's effectiveness on a simulated ground-based photometric survey in the context of characterizing a hypothetical population of primordial black holes (PBHs) with an average mass of $30 M_{\odot}$. On simulated data, our method outperforms current black hole (BH) lens identification pipelines and characterizes different subpopulations of lenses while jointly constraining the PBH contribution to dark matter to ${\approx}25$\%. Key to robust inference, our method can marginalize over population model uncertainty. We find the lower mass cutoff for stellar origin BHs, a key observable in understanding the BH mass gap, particularly difficult to infer in our simulations. This work lays the foundation for cutting-edge PBH abundance constraints to be extracted from current photometric microlensing surveys.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

On the Need for a Near-Earth Object Characterization Constellation in Low-Earth Orbit

In 2005, the United States Congress passed a bill mandating the detection, tracking, cataloguing and characterization of 90\% of the 140 meter and larger near-Earth objects (NEOs) by 2020. At the deadline $\sim$35\% were detected, tracked and catalogued, but only a small fraction were characterized. At the present rate, it will take 40 years to meet the detection mandate, and there are insufficient global facilities dedicated to NEO characterization to come close to the characterization threshold. The major surveys focus mainly on detection and initial orbit determination, which must be refined in order to fully be tracked and catalogued. Characterization requires observations spanning multiple wavelengths, cadences, and instruments, so it is challenging for observers to acquire the requisite data in a timely manner for planetary defense. Two upcoming surveys will easily meet the 90\% threshold for detection, but each will require separate facilities to tip and queue to refine orbits and characterize new discoveries, and they will provide too many discoveries for ground and space-based assets to keep up with. Here, I argue for a constellation of proliferating small satellites carrying visible and infrared sensors that would offer the needed coverage and flexibility to follow up detections from current and upcoming surveys in a timely manner. Such a constellation would enable NASA to move beyond the detection focused investments and fully meet the 2005 Congressional mandate.

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arXiv2022

MEGASIM: Lifetimes and Resonances of Earth Trojan Asteroids -- The Death of Primordial ETAs?

We present an analysis of lifetimes and resonances of Earth Trojan Asteroids (ETAs) in the MEGASIM data set (Yeager & Golovich 2022). Trojan asteroids co-orbit the Sun with a planet but remain bound to the Lagrange points, L4 (60° leading the planet) or L5 (60° trailing). In the circular three-body approximation, the stability of a Trojan asteroid depends on the ratio of the host planet mass and the central mass. For the inner planets, the range of stability becomes increasingly small, so perturbations from the planets have made primordial Trojans rare. To date there have been just two ETAs (2010 TK7 and 2020 XL5), several Mars Trojans, and a Venus Trojan discovered. The estimated lifetimes of the known inner system Trojans are less than a million years, suggesting they are interlopers rather than members of a stable and long-lasting population. With the largest ETA n-body simulation to date, we are able to track their survival across a wide initialized parameter space. We find the remaining fraction of ETAs over time is well fit with a stretched exponential function that when extrapolated beyond our simulation run time predicts zero ETAs by 2.33 Gyr. We also show correlations between ETA ejections and the periods of the Milankovitch cycles. Though Earth's orbital dynamics dominate the instabilities of ETAs, we provide evidence that ETA ejections are linked to resonances found in the variation of the orbital elements of many, if not all of the planets.

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arXiv2021

A Search for L4 Earth Trojan Asteroids Using a Novel Track-Before-Detect Multi-Epoch Pipeline

Earth Trojan Asteroids are an important but elusive population that co-orbit with Earth at the L4 and L5 Lagrange points. There is only one known, but a large population is theoretically stable and could provide insight into our solar system's past and present as well as planetary defense. In this paper, we present the results of an Earth Trojan survey that uses a novel shift-and-stack detection method on two nights of data from the Dark Energy Camera. We find no new Earth Trojan Asteroids. We calculate an upper limit on the population that is consistent with previous searches despite much less sky coverage. Additionally, we elaborate on previous upper limit calculations using current asteroid population statistics and an extensive asteroid simulation to provide the most up to date population constraints. We find an L4 Earth Trojan population of NET < 1 for H = 13.93, NET < 7 for H = 16, and NET < 938 for H = 22.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

A New Blind Asteroid Detection Scheme

As astronomical photometric surveys continue to tile the sky repeatedly, the potential to pushdetection thresholds to fainter limits increases; however, traditional digital-tracking methods cannotachieve this efficiently beyond time scales where motion is approximately linear. In this paper weprototype an optimal detection scheme that samples under a user defined prior on a parameterizationof the motion space, maps these sampled trajectories to the data space, and computes an optimalsignal-matched filter for computing the signal to noise ratio of trial trajectories. We demonstrate thecapability of this method on a small test data set from the Dark Energy Camera. We recover themajority of asteroids expected to appear and also discover hundreds of new asteroids with only a fewhours of observations. We conclude by exploring the potential for extending this scheme to larger datasets that cover larger areas of the sky over longer time baselines.

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arXiv2020

A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and IV

Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year. Surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is studying the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time distribution ($t_E$). However, systematics in individual light curves as well as over-simplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian Process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the timescale distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and previous analyses over-estimated the number of long timescale ($t_E>100$ days) events due to their over simplistic models ignoring parallax effects and stellar variability. We use our fits to identify hundreds of events that are likely black holes.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2019

Chandra Observations of the Spectacular A3411-12 Merger Event

We present deep Chandra observations of A3411-12, a remarkable merging cluster that hosts the most compelling evidence for electron re-acceleration at cluster shocks to date. Using the $Y_X-M$ scaling relation, we find $r_{500} \sim 1.3$ Mpc, $M_{500} = (7.1 \pm 0.7) \times 10^{14} \ M_{\rm{\odot}}$, $kT=6.5\pm 0.1$ keV, and a gas mass of $M_{\rm g,500} = (9.7 \pm 0.1) \times 10^{13} M_\odot$. The gas mass fraction within $r_{500}$ is $f_{\rm g} = 0.14 \pm 0.01$. We compute the shock strength using density jumps to conclude that the Mach number of the merging subcluster is small ($M \leq 1.15_{-0.09}^{+0.14}$). We also present pseudo-density, projected temperature, pseudo-pressure, and pseudo-entropy maps. Based on the pseudo-entropy map we conclude that the cluster is undergoing a mild merger, consistent with the small Mach number. On the other hand, radio relics extend over Mpc scale in the A3411-12 system, which strongly suggests that a population of energetic electrons already existed over extended regions of the cluster.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Probing the Fundamental Nature of Dark Matter with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

Astrophysical and cosmological observations currently provide the only robust, empirical measurements of dark matter. Future observations with Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will provide necessary guidance for the experimental dark matter program. This white paper represents a community effort to summarize the science case for studying the fundamental physics of dark matter with LSST. We discuss how LSST will inform our understanding of the fundamental properties of dark matter, such as particle mass, self-interaction strength, non-gravitational couplings to the Standard Model, and compact object abundances. Additionally, we discuss the ways that LSST will complement other experiments to strengthen our understanding of the fundamental characteristics of dark matter. More information on the LSST dark matter effort can be found at https://lsstdarkmatter.github.io/ .

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Astro2020: From Stars to Compact Objects: The Initial-Final Mass Relation

One of the key phases of stellar evolution that remains poorly understood is stellar death. We lack a predictive model for how a star of a given mass explodes and what kind of remnant it leaves behind (i.e. the initial-final mass relation, IFMR). Progress has been limited due to the difficulty in finding and weighing black holes and neutron stars in large numbers. Technological advances that allow for sub-milliarcsecond astrometry in crowded fields have opened a new window for finding black holes and neutron stars: astrometric gravitational lensing. Finding and weighing a sample of compact objects with astrometric microlensing will allow us to place some of the first constraints on the present-day mass function of isolated black holes and neutron stars, their multiplicity, and their kick velocities. All of these are fundamental inputs into understanding the death phase of stellar evolution, improving supernovae models, and interpreting LIGO detections in an astrophysical context. To achieve these goals, we require large area surveys, such as the WFIRST exoplanet microlensing survey, to photometrically identify long-duration (>120 day), un-blended microlensing events as candidate compact objects. We also require high-precision astrometric follow-up monitoring using extremely large telescopes, equipped with adaptive optics, such as TMT and GMT.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Primordial Black Hole Microlensing: The Einstein Crossing Time Distribution

Gravitational microlensing is one of the few means of finding primordial black holes (PBHs), if they exist. Recent LIGO detections of 30 Msun black holes have re-invigorated the search for PBHs in the 10-100 Msun mass regime. Unfortunately, individual PBH microlensing events cannot easily be distinguished from stellar lensing events from photometry alone. However, the distribution of microlensing timescales (tE, the Einstein radius crossing time) can be analyzed in a statistical sense using models of the Milky Way with and without PBHs. While previous works have presented both theoretical models and observational constrains for PBHs (e.g. Calcino et al. 2018; Niikura et al. 2019), surprisingly, they rarely show the observed quantity -- the tE distribution -- for different abundances of PBHs relative to the total dark matter mass (fPBH). We present a simple calculation of how the tE distribution changes between models with and without PBHs.

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