arXiv subjects

Nathan Kallus

Publications and source records attributed to Nathan Kallus.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

B-Learner: Quasi-Oracle Bounds on Heterogeneous Causal Effects Under Hidden Confounding

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data is a crucial task across many fields, helping policy and decision-makers take better actions. There has been recent progress on robust and efficient methods for estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function, but these methods often do not take into account the risk of hidden confounding, which could arbitrarily and unknowingly bias any causal estimate based on observational data. We propose a meta-learner called the B-Learner, which can efficiently learn sharp bounds on the CATE function under limits on the level of hidden confounding. We derive the B-Learner by adapting recent results for sharp and valid bounds of the average treatment effect (Dorn et al., 2021) into the framework given by Kallus & Oprescu (2023) for robust and model-agnostic learning of conditional distributional treatment effects. The B-Learner can use any function estimator such as random forests and deep neural networks, and we prove its estimates are valid, sharp, efficient, and have a quasi-oracle property with respect to the constituent estimators under more general conditions than existing methods. Semi-synthetic experimental comparisons validate the theoretical findings, and we use real-world data to demonstrate how the method might be used in practice.

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arXiv2023

Near-Minimax-Optimal Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning with CVaR

In this paper, we study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), focusing on the objective of Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with risk tolerance $τ$. Starting with multi-arm bandits (MABs), we show the minimax CVaR regret rate is $Ω(\sqrt{τ^{-1}AK})$, where $A$ is the number of actions and $K$ is the number of episodes, and that it is achieved by an Upper Confidence Bound algorithm with a novel Bernstein bonus. For online RL in tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), we show a minimax regret lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{τ^{-1}SAK})$ (with normalized cumulative rewards), where $S$ is the number of states, and we propose a novel bonus-driven Value Iteration procedure. We show that our algorithm achieves the optimal regret of $\widetilde O(\sqrt{τ^{-1}SAK})$ under a continuity assumption and in general attains a near-optimal regret of $\widetilde O(τ^{-1}\sqrt{SAK})$, which is minimax-optimal for constant $τ$. This improves on the best available bounds. By discretizing rewards appropriately, our algorithms are computationally efficient.

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arXiv2023

The Variational Method of Moments

The conditional moment problem is a powerful formulation for describing structural causal parameters in terms of observables, a prominent example being instrumental variable regression. A standard approach reduces the problem to a finite set of marginal moment conditions and applies the optimally weighted generalized method of moments (OWGMM), but this requires we know a finite set of identifying moments, can still be inefficient even if identifying, or can be theoretically efficient but practically unwieldy if we use a growing sieve of moment conditions. Motivated by a variational minimax reformulation of OWGMM, we define a very general class of estimators for the conditional moment problem, which we term the variational method of moments (VMM) and which naturally enables controlling infinitely-many moments. We provide a detailed theoretical analysis of multiple VMM estimators, including ones based on kernel methods and neural nets, and provide conditions under which these are consistent, asymptotically normal, and semiparametrically efficient in the full conditional moment model. We additionally provide algorithms for valid statistical inference based on the same kind of variational reformulations, both for kernel- and neural-net-based varieties. Finally, we demonstrate the strong performance of our proposed estimation and inference algorithms in a detailed series of synthetic experiments.

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arXiv2023

Proximal Reinforcement Learning: Efficient Off-Policy Evaluation in Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes

In applications of offline reinforcement learning to observational data, such as in healthcare or education, a general concern is that observed actions might be affected by unobserved factors, inducing confounding and biasing estimates derived under the assumption of a perfect Markov decision process (MDP) model. Here we tackle this by considering off-policy evaluation in a partially observed MDP (POMDP). Specifically, we consider estimating the value of a given target policy in a POMDP given trajectories with only partial state observations generated by a different and unknown policy that may depend on the unobserved state. We tackle two questions: what conditions allow us to identify the target policy value from the observed data and, given identification, how to best estimate it. To answer these, we extend the framework of proximal causal inference to our POMDP setting, providing a variety of settings where identification is made possible by the existence of so-called bridge functions. We then show how to construct semiparametrically efficient estimators in these settings. We term the resulting framework proximal reinforcement learning (PRL). We demonstrate the benefits of PRL in an extensive simulation study and on the problem of sepsis management.

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arXiv2023

Minimax Instrumental Variable Regression and $L_2$ Convergence Guarantees without Identification or Closedness

In this paper, we study nonparametric estimation of instrumental variable (IV) regressions. Recently, many flexible machine learning methods have been developed for instrumental variable estimation. However, these methods have at least one of the following limitations: (1) restricting the IV regression to be uniquely identified; (2) only obtaining estimation error rates in terms of pseudometrics (\emph{e.g.,} projected norm) rather than valid metrics (\emph{e.g.,} $L_2$ norm); or (3) imposing the so-called closedness condition that requires a certain conditional expectation operator to be sufficiently smooth. In this paper, we present the first method and analysis that can avoid all three limitations, while still permitting general function approximation. Specifically, we propose a new penalized minimax estimator that can converge to a fixed IV solution even when there are multiple solutions, and we derive a strong $L_2$ error rate for our estimator under lax conditions. Notably, this guarantee only needs a widely-used source condition and realizability assumptions, but not the so-called closedness condition. We argue that the source condition and the closedness condition are inherently conflicting, so relaxing the latter significantly improves upon the existing literature that requires both conditions. Our estimator can achieve this improvement because it builds on a novel formulation of the IV estimation problem as a constrained optimization problem.

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arXiv2023

Efficiently Breaking the Curse of Horizon in Off-Policy Evaluation with Double Reinforcement Learning

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning is notoriously difficult in long- and infinite-horizon settings due to diminishing overlap between behavior and target policies. In this paper, we study the role of Markovian and time-invariant structure in efficient OPE. We first derive the efficiency bounds for OPE when one assumes each of these structures. This precisely characterizes the curse of horizon: in time-variant processes, OPE is only feasible in the near-on-policy setting, where behavior and target policies are sufficiently similar. But, in time-invariant Markov decision processes, our bounds show that truly-off-policy evaluation is feasible, even with only just one dependent trajectory, and provide the limits of how well we could hope to do. We develop a new estimator based on Double Reinforcement Learning (DRL) that leverages this structure for OPE using the efficient influence function we derive. Our DRL estimator simultaneously uses estimated stationary density ratios and $q$-functions and remains efficient when both are estimated at slow, nonparametric rates and remains consistent when either is estimated consistently. We investigate these properties and the performance benefits of leveraging the problem structure for more efficient OPE.

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arXiv2022

A Review of Off-Policy Evaluation in Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) is one of the most vibrant research frontiers in machine learning and has been recently applied to solve a number of challenging problems. In this paper, we primarily focus on off-policy evaluation (OPE), one of the most fundamental topics in RL. In recent years, a number of OPE methods have been developed in the statistics and computer science literature. We provide a discussion on the efficiency bound of OPE, some of the existing state-of-the-art OPE methods, their statistical properties and some other related research directions that are currently actively explored.

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arXiv2022

What's the Harm? Sharp Bounds on the Fraction Negatively Affected by Treatment

The fundamental problem of causal inference -- that we never observe counterfactuals -- prevents us from identifying how many might be negatively affected by a proposed intervention. If, in an A/B test, half of users click (or buy, or watch, or renew, etc.), whether exposed to the standard experience A or a new one B, hypothetically it could be because the change affects no one, because the change positively affects half the user population to go from no-click to click while negatively affecting the other half, or something in between. While unknowable, this impact is clearly of material importance to the decision to implement a change or not, whether due to fairness, long-term, systemic, or operational considerations. We therefore derive the tightest-possible (i.e., sharp) bounds on the fraction negatively affected (and other related estimands) given data with only factual observations, whether experimental or observational. Naturally, the more we can stratify individuals by observable covariates, the tighter the sharp bounds. Since these bounds involve unknown functions that must be learned from data, we develop a robust inference algorithm that is efficient almost regardless of how and how fast these functions are learned, remains consistent when some are mislearned, and still gives valid conservative bounds when most are mislearned. Our methodology altogether therefore strongly supports credible conclusions: it avoids spuriously point-identifying this unknowable impact, focusing on the best bounds instead, and it permits exceedingly robust inference on these. We demonstrate our method in simulation studies and in a case study of career counseling for the unemployed.

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arXiv2022

The Implicit Delta Method

Epistemic uncertainty quantification is a crucial part of drawing credible conclusions from predictive models, whether concerned about the prediction at a given point or any downstream evaluation that uses the model as input. When the predictive model is simple and its evaluation differentiable, this task is solved by the delta method, where we propagate the asymptotically-normal uncertainty in the predictive model through the evaluation to compute standard errors and Wald confidence intervals. However, this becomes difficult when the model and/or evaluation becomes more complex. Remedies include the bootstrap, but it can be computationally infeasible when training the model even once is costly. In this paper, we propose an alternative, the implicit delta method, which works by infinitesimally regularizing the training loss of the predictive model to automatically assess downstream uncertainty. We show that the change in the evaluation due to regularization is consistent for the asymptotic variance of the evaluation estimator, even when the infinitesimal change is approximated by a finite difference. This provides both a reliable quantification of uncertainty in terms of standard errors as well as permits the construction of calibrated confidence intervals. We discuss connections to other approaches to uncertainty quantification, both Bayesian and frequentist, and demonstrate our approach empirically.

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arXiv2022

Provable Safe Reinforcement Learning with Binary Feedback

Safety is a crucial necessity in many applications of reinforcement learning (RL), whether robotic, automotive, or medical. Many existing approaches to safe RL rely on receiving numeric safety feedback, but in many cases this feedback can only take binary values; that is, whether an action in a given state is safe or unsafe. This is particularly true when feedback comes from human experts. We therefore consider the problem of provable safe RL when given access to an offline oracle providing binary feedback on the safety of state, action pairs. We provide a novel meta algorithm, SABRE, which can be applied to any MDP setting given access to a blackbox PAC RL algorithm for that setting. SABRE applies concepts from active learning to reinforcement learning to provably control the number of queries to the safety oracle. SABRE works by iteratively exploring the state space to find regions where the agent is currently uncertain about safety. Our main theoretical results shows that, under appropriate technical assumptions, SABRE never takes unsafe actions during training, and is guaranteed to return a near-optimal safe policy with high probability. We provide a discussion of how our meta-algorithm may be applied to various settings studied in both theoretical and empirical frameworks.

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arXiv2022

Causal Inference Under Unmeasured Confounding With Negative Controls: A Minimax Learning Approach

We study the estimation of causal parameters when not all confounders are observed and instead negative controls are available. Recent work has shown how these can enable identification and efficient estimation via two so-called bridge functions. In this paper, we tackle the primary challenge to causal inference using negative controls: the identification and estimation of these bridge functions. Previous work has relied on completeness conditions on these functions to identify the causal parameters and required uniqueness assumptions in estimation, and they also focused on parametric estimation of bridge functions. Instead, we provide a new identification strategy that avoids the completeness condition. And, we provide new estimators for these functions based on minimax learning formulations. These estimators accommodate general function classes such as Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces and neural networks. We study finite-sample convergence results both for estimating bridge functions themselves and for the final estimation of the causal parameter under a variety of combinations of assumptions. We avoid uniqueness conditions on the bridge functions as much as possible.

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arXiv2022

DTR Bandit: Learning to Make Response-Adaptive Decisions With Low Regret

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are personalized, adaptive, multi-stage treatment plans that adapt treatment decisions both to an individual's initial features and to intermediate outcomes and features at each subsequent stage, which are affected by decisions in prior stages. Examples include personalized first- and second-line treatments of chronic conditions like diabetes, cancer, and depression, which adapt to patient response to first-line treatment, disease progression, and individual characteristics. While existing literature mostly focuses on estimating the optimal DTR from offline data such as from sequentially randomized trials, we study the problem of developing the optimal DTR in an online manner, where the interaction with each individual affect both our cumulative reward and our data collection for future learning. We term this the DTR bandit problem. We propose a novel algorithm that, by carefully balancing exploration and exploitation, is guaranteed to achieve rate-optimal regret when the transition and reward models are linear. We demonstrate our algorithm and its benefits both in synthetic experiments and in a case study of adaptive treatment of major depressive disorder using real-world data.

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arXiv2022

Localized Debiased Machine Learning: Efficient Inference on Quantile Treatment Effects and Beyond

We consider estimating a low-dimensional parameter in an estimating equation involving high-dimensional nuisances that depend on the parameter. A central example is the efficient estimating equation for the (local) quantile treatment effect ((L)QTE) in causal inference, which involves as a nuisance the covariate-conditional cumulative distribution function evaluated at the quantile to be estimated. Debiased machine learning (DML) is a data-splitting approach to estimating high-dimensional nuisances using flexible machine learning methods, but applying it to problems with parameter-dependent nuisances is impractical. For (L)QTE, DML requires we learn the whole covariate-conditional cumulative distribution function. We instead propose localized debiased machine learning (LDML), which avoids this burdensome step and needs only estimate nuisances at a single initial rough guess for the parameter. For (L)QTE, LDML involves learning just two regression functions, a standard task for machine learning methods. We prove that under lax rate conditions our estimator has the same favorable asymptotic behavior as the infeasible estimator that uses the unknown true nuisances. Thus, LDML notably enables practically-feasible and theoretically-grounded efficient estimation of important quantities in causal inference such as (L)QTEs when we must control for many covariates and/or flexible relationships, as we demonstrate in empirical studies.

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arXiv2022

Finite Sample Analysis of Minimax Offline Reinforcement Learning: Completeness, Fast Rates and First-Order Efficiency

We offer a theoretical characterization of off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning using function approximation for marginal importance weights and $q$-functions when these are estimated using recent minimax methods. Under various combinations of realizability and completeness assumptions, we show that the minimax approach enables us to achieve a fast rate of convergence for weights and quality functions, characterized by the critical inequality \citep{bartlett2005}. Based on this result, we analyze convergence rates for OPE. In particular, we introduce novel alternative completeness conditions under which OPE is feasible and we present the first finite-sample result with first-order efficiency in non-tabular environments, i.e., having the minimal coefficient in the leading term.

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arXiv2022

Doubly-Valid/Doubly-Sharp Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Inference with Unmeasured Confounding

We consider the problem of constructing bounds on the average treatment effect (ATE) when unmeasured confounders exist but have bounded influence. Specifically, we assume that omitted confounders could not change the odds of treatment for any unit by more than a fixed factor. We derive the sharp partial identification bounds implied by this assumption by leveraging distributionally robust optimization, and we propose estimators of these bounds with several novel robustness properties. The first is double sharpness: our estimators consistently estimate the sharp ATE bounds when one of two nuisance parameters is misspecified and achieve semiparametric efficiency when all nuisance parameters are suitably consistent. The second is double validity: even when most nuisance parameters are misspecified, our estimators still provide valid but possibly conservative bounds for the ATE and our Wald confidence intervals remain valid even when our estimators are not asymptotically normal. As a result, our estimators provide a highly credible method for sensitivity analysis of causal inferences.

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arXiv2022

Treatment Effect Risk: Bounds and Inference

Since the average treatment effect (ATE) measures the change in social welfare, even if positive, there is a risk of negative effect on, say, some 10% of the population. Assessing such risk is difficult, however, because any one individual treatment effect (ITE) is never observed, so the 10% worst-affected cannot be identified, while distributional treatment effects only compare the first deciles within each treatment group, which does not correspond to any 10%-subpopulation. In this paper we consider how to nonetheless assess this important risk measure, formalized as the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of the ITE-distribution. We leverage the availability of pre-treatment covariates and characterize the tightest-possible upper and lower bounds on ITE-CVaR given by the covariate-conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function. We then proceed to study how to estimate these bounds efficiently from data and construct confidence intervals. This is challenging even in randomized experiments as it requires understanding the distribution of the unknown CATE function, which can be very complex if we use rich covariates so as to best control for heterogeneity. We develop a debiasing method that overcomes this and prove it enjoys favorable statistical properties even when CATE and other nuisances are estimated by black-box machine learning or even inconsistently. Studying a hypothetical change to French job-search counseling services, our bounds and inference demonstrate a small social benefit entails a negative impact on a substantial subpopulation.

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arXiv2022

Doubly Robust Distributionally Robust Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning

Off-policy evaluation and learning (OPE/L) use offline observational data to make better decisions, which is crucial in applications where online experimentation is limited. However, depending entirely on logged data, OPE/L is sensitive to environment distribution shifts -- discrepancies between the data-generating environment and that where policies are deployed. \citet{si2020distributional} proposed distributionally robust OPE/L (DROPE/L) to address this, but the proposal relies on inverse-propensity weighting, whose estimation error and regret will deteriorate if propensities are nonparametrically estimated and whose variance is suboptimal even if not. For standard, non-robust, OPE/L, this is solved by doubly robust (DR) methods, but they do not naturally extend to the more complex DROPE/L, which involves a worst-case expectation. In this paper, we propose the first DR algorithms for DROPE/L with KL-divergence uncertainty sets. For evaluation, we propose Localized Doubly Robust DROPE (LDR$^2$OPE) and show that it achieves semiparametric efficiency under weak product rates conditions. Thanks to a localization technique, LDR$^2$OPE only requires fitting a small number of regressions, just like DR methods for standard OPE. For learning, we propose Continuum Doubly Robust DROPL (CDR$^2$OPL) and show that, under a product rate condition involving a continuum of regressions, it enjoys a fast regret rate of $\mathcal{O}\left(N^{-1/2}\right)$ even when unknown propensities are nonparametrically estimated. We empirically validate our algorithms in simulations and further extend our results to general $f$-divergence uncertainty sets.

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arXiv2022

Learning Bellman Complete Representations for Offline Policy Evaluation

We study representation learning for Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL), focusing on the important task of Offline Policy Evaluation (OPE). Recent work shows that, in contrast to supervised learning, realizability of the Q-function is not enough for learning it. Two sufficient conditions for sample-efficient OPE are Bellman completeness and coverage. Prior work often assumes that representations satisfying these conditions are given, with results being mostly theoretical in nature. In this work, we propose BCRL, which directly learns from data an approximately linear Bellman complete representation with good coverage. With this learned representation, we perform OPE using Least Square Policy Evaluation (LSPE) with linear functions in our learned representation. We present an end-to-end theoretical analysis, showing that our two-stage algorithm enjoys polynomial sample complexity provided some representation in the rich class considered is linear Bellman complete. Empirically, we extensively evaluate our algorithm on challenging, image-based continuous control tasks from the Deepmind Control Suite. We show our representation enables better OPE compared to previous representation learning methods developed for off-policy RL (e.g., CURL, SPR). BCRL achieve competitive OPE error with the state-of-the-art method Fitted Q-Evaluation (FQE), and beats FQE when evaluating beyond the initial state distribution. Our ablations show that both linear Bellman complete and coverage components of our method are crucial.

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