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Nathan Smith

Publications and source records attributed to Nathan Smith.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Tomography analysis of the intermediate-luminosity Type Iax SN 2024pxl

We present an abundance tomography analysis of SN 2024pxl, an intermediate luminosity Type Iax supernova ($M_{r}=-16.82 \pm 0.19$ mag), with the most-detailed follow-up in the Type Iax subclass to-date. As one of the few intermediate luminosity Type Iax objects, SN 2024pxl may link the two extremes of the peculiar thermonuclear supernova subclass. To test this hypothesis, we analyze its spectral evolution through the first 100 days after the explosion and aim to probe the structure of its ejecta. We conduct an abundance tomography analysis using synthetic spectra produced with the one dimensional radiative transfer code TARDIS. The fit of the spectral time series provides a radial scan of physical properties and probes the stratification of chemical elements throughout most of the SN ejecta. The observed spectral evolution is well fit with the final model, similar to the general predictions of the pure deflagration scenarios, but significant modifications are required in the density function of the inner ejecta and in the chemical profiles of the outermost regions. The constrained physical characteristics, such as the photospheric velocities and the time of maximum light, are also consistent with other SNe~Iax. Despite their small number, intermediate luminosity Type Iax SNe are not outliers in the subclass but demonstrate the continuous nature of SNe Iax through their luminosity range. Following this observation, we argue that all SNe~Iax share the same progenitor and explosion origin.

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arXiv2026

Early NIR echo and the time variable mass loss history of Type IIn SN 2024kgi

We present a comprehensive analysis of the long-term photometric and spectroscopic monitoring campaign of the Type IIn Supernova (SN) 2024kgi. The SN reaches at peak an $r$-band absolute magnitude of $-19.81 \pm 0.06$ mag and a bolometric luminosity of $\sim 2 \times 10^{43}$ erg s$^{-1}$. We observe a break in the lightcurve at day $\sim 312$, after which the luminosity decline changes from $t^{-1.0}$ to $t^{-4.5}$, likely due to the shock sweeping the dense CSM. We introduce a semi-analytical lightcurve modeling approach for CSM-interaction in transients that accounts for variable diffusion time. We hence estimate a CSM mass of $2.34^{+11.8}_{-1.6} M_{\odot}$ and with a density profile $ρ_{csm} \propto r^{-2.74}$, indicating progressively increasing mass loss toward the SN explosion. The ejecta signatures emerge as broad H, He, and Ca II triplet lines, at day $\sim 80$, much earlier than expected from a spherically symmetric CSM, suggesting asymmetry in the CSM. After the lightcurve break, the H lines exhibit a wavelength-dependent deficit in the red-wing flux, indicating new dust formation in the ejecta and/or in the post-shock gas. We observe an NIR excess from day $\sim 40$ onwards. We attribute the early NIR excess before the lightcurve break solely to the NIR echo from pre-existing dust, as there are no other indications for new dust formation. The late-time NIR excess likely has contributions from both the preexisting and newly formed dust. The steady increase in mass loss, slow CSM velocity, and asymmetric CSM favor a binary interaction-induced mass loss.

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arXiv2026

Aarmed with Data: Bumps, Outflows, and Disk-like Emission in TDE 2025aarm

The origin of the optical emission in tidal disruption events (TDEs) remains one of the major outstanding questions in the field, in part due to the limited number of nearby events with high-cadence monitoring to track their evolving photometric and spectroscopic properties. We present multi-wavelength observations of the nearby ($z=0.01368$) TDE\,2025aarm, including near-daily spectroscopic coverage prior to the optical peak. Its proximity makes it one of the brightest TDEs discovered, reaching a peak magnitude of $m_r\sim15.5$ ($M_r\sim-18$). The light curve deviates from a smooth evolution, exhibiting multiple rebrightening episodes visible in both the individual filter light curves and the bolometric luminosity. Blackbody modelling reveals that these rebrightenings are associated with an increase in temperature of $> 5,000-10,000$\,K, while the inferred photospheric radius remains approximately constant. Simultaneously, the H$α$ line not only increases in blueshift but also broadens, suggesting a link between the continuum rebrightenings to changes in the kinematics of the line-forming gas. We identify a persistent absorption component at $\sim-3900$\,km\,s$^{-1}$ in multiple Balmer lines, providing further evidence for outflowing material. The H$α$ profile also exhibits excess flux compared to a Gaussian on both sides of the line, inconsistent with simple scattering-dominated outflow models. Disk-profile modelling provides evidence for the emergence of a disk-like component least $\sim20$ days after peak, with substantial changes in the disk properties between $\sim50$ and 60 days. These observations highlight the complexity of TDE emission processes and demonstrate how dense multi-wavelength monitoring can disentangle the roles of accretion, reprocessing, and outflows in shaping TDE emission.

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arXiv2026

A Significant Dust Reservoir Uncovered with JWST in the Type Ic SN 1983V More Than 40 Years Post-Explosion

Searching for late-time emission from supernovae (SNe) is an active field. Infrared (IR) wavelengths are sensitive to thermal emission from dust, which can be used to probe SN contributions to the cosmic dust budget and progenitor mass-loss histories. The older an SN, the more likely it is for any existing dust to have cooled below the detection threshold of most observatories, even JWST. Decades-old IR observations of SNe are therefore exceedingly rare. Here we present fortuitous and serendipitous JWST IR observations that detect a point source at the position of the Type Ic SN 1983V more than 40 yr post-explosion. We demonstrate that the source is unlike nearby HII regions and likely to be the dusty SN. We further show evidence from archival HST data of a plausible H/alpha counterpart associated with ongoing SN shock interaction that collisionally heats the dust. In this scenario, the dust is distributed in a torus, more consistent with mass loss from binary interaction than a spherical wind. While not the oldest SN detected by JWST (SN 1980K), SN 1983V is a close second. Moreover, it has a relatively large dust mass (~7.7 x 10^-3 M_solar), particularly for a stripped-envelope SN. Although the dust is not likely newly formed, it does suggest such systems may contribute to dust production, particularly in the early Universe where massive stars and binary systems were more common. Spectroscopic observations can ultimately confirm the SN nature of this source.

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arXiv2026

Radial Velocity Evidence for a Post-Mass-Transfer Massive Binary System NaSt1

We present multi-epoch high-resolution optical spectroscopy ($R \simeq 80{,}000$) of the emission-line object NaSt1 to test its proposed binary nature, along with long-term multiband photometry, mid-infrared spectroscopy, and spatially resolved integral field unit (IFU) spectroscopy to probe the circumstellar kinematics of the system. We detect two groups of 36 emission lines showing radial velocity (RV) variation with a mean period of 311 $\pm$ 5 d, but varying in opposite phase. We associate these two groups with the optically thick wind of the stripped primary star and the wind-wind collision region with the companion star, providing strong evidence for binarity. The RV and light curve (LC) periods are consistent within the uncertainties, ruling out ellipsoidal modulation, which would require an orbital period of about 620 d. The RV-LC phase relationship and high-ionization lines favor binary interaction over pulsations. We model the 1--5~$μ$m spectrum of NaSt1 and find two optically thin dust components: hot $T_{\rm h} \simeq 1230$ K, $M_{\rm h} \simeq 2 \times 10^{-10} M_{\odot}$ and warm $T_{\rm c} \simeq 660$ K, $M_{\rm c} \simeq 3 \times 10^{-8} M_{\odot}$. IFU spectroscopy spatially resolves the circumstellar medium in the [\ion{N}{2}] $\lambda6548$ and $\lambda6584$ emission lines, showing a deprojected expansion velocity of $\sim31$ km~s$^{-1}$, implying a dynamical age of $\sim40$ yr. This short timescale suggests that the nebula was produced by recent mass loss. The system may represent a Galactic analog of a massive binary undergoing a mass-loss process to become a stripped-envelope supernova progenitor.

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arXiv2026

SN 2021pfs: A Type Ia Supernova Likely Affected by Progenitor Metallicity, as Revealed by Comparison with Its Twin Counterpart

We present extensive photometric and spectroscopic observations of the normal type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) 2021pfs, which occurred in the Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 5427 at a redshift 0.009. SN 2021pfs reached an absolute \textit{B}-band peak magnitude of $M_{\rm max}(B)=$-19.28 $\pm$ 0.40 mag. The mag and a post-peak decline rate of $Δm_{15}(B)=$1.13 $\pm$ 0.06 mag. The observed properties of this nearby SN Ia closely resemble those of SN 2011fe, including the main optical spectroscopic features and photometric evolution. Despite their similar decline rates, SN 2021pfs rose more rapidly in the $U$ band but more slowly in the $r$ and $i$ bands compared to SN 2011fe in very early phases. This photometric difference, particularly at short wavelengths, can introduce a systematic uncertainty of up to $\sim$12% in distance estimates. Analysis of the host galaxy's local and global environment shows an environment consistent with producing a higher-metallicity progenitor for SN 2021pfs than that of SN 2011fe.This higher progenitor metallicity may explain the observed photometric discrepancy and the resulting distance between SN 2021pfs and SN 2011fe, though a larger sample of such "twin" SNe Ia is needed to confirm this trend and assess its impact on cosmological measurements.

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arXiv2026

Quantifying Systematic Age Discrepancies in Very Young Star Clusters

We infer the ages of three young stellar clusters, NGC 2004, NGC 7419, and NGC 2100, using Stellar Ages, a statistical algorithm designed to infer stellar population properties from color magnitude diagrams. Recent studies have revealed emerging inconsistencies in the inferred ages of very young stellar clusters with ages less than or equal to 50 Myr. Here, we identify and quantify two distinct discrepancies. First, we identify a systematic age offset of 0.60 plus minus 0.06 dex between red supergiant and bright blue star age estimates, equivalent to a factor of approximately 4.0 in linear age, with bright blue star ages appearing systematically younger than those inferred from red supergiants. Second, given the observed numbers of red supergiants and bright blue stars, we find a pronounced deficit of lower-mass main-sequence stars relative to expectations from a standard initial mass function. Although these discrepancies resemble those reported for intermediate-age clusters, their magnitude and character suggest that they are unique to the evolution of massive stars. Together, these results highlight population-level inconsistencies with single-star evolutionary models and underscore the need to consider multiple evolutionary tracers when age-dating young clusters. By combining individual stellar ages with population-wide constraints, our approach refines prior work on cluster age determinations and provides new insight into massive star evolution and the interpretation of cluster demographics.

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arXiv2026

AT 2016blu: Accretion-Powered Outbursts in a Luminous Blue Variable and Compact Object Binary

We present the first X-ray detection of the supernova (SN) impostor AT 2016blu in NGC 4559. AT 2016blu exhibited 27 detected quasiperiodic (~113 day) outbursts between 2012 and June 2026, presumably triggered by periastron passages in an eccentric binary system in which the primary is a $\gtrsim 33~M_{\odot}$ luminous blue variable (LBV). AT 2016blu was serendipitously observed by Chandra in 2001-2002, prior to its first documented outburst in 2012, but the stacked archival data show no X-ray detection. We monitored the source's visual-wavelength variability around its predicted outburst time and triggered a Chandra Target of Opportunity program in March 2026, obtaining observations with detections over five closely spaced epochs. These data indicate an X-ray luminosity of $\log L_{\rm X} \approx 38.64 \pm 0.11$~erg~s$^{-1}$ and an accretion rate of $\dot{M} \gtrsim 8\times10^{-8}~M_{\odot}~\mathrm{yr^{-1}}$, consistent with the presence of a compact companion. We therefore conclude that AT 2016blu is the first known case of an LBV SN impostor whose outbursts are driven by intermittent accretion onto a compact object. Given that the system consists of a massive star and a compact companion, AT 2016blu is a high-mass X-ray binary, similar to SN 2010da, although the donor star in SN 2010da is a red supergiant.

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arXiv2026

A JWST/MIRI Study of Dust in a Sample of Normal Type IIP Core Collapse Supernovae

Core collapse supernovae (CCSNe) are invoked as major dust producers in the early Universe, yet the amount of dust they form, the timescale over which it grows, and the physical conditions that regulate the yield remain uncertain. We present a detailed JWST/MIRI mid-infrared (MIR) imaging census of 11 nearby Type IIP CCSNe spanning $\sim$1-7 yr after explosion, investigating dust emission across the different phases of their evolution. The spectral energy distributions show a coherent evolution from hot ($\sim$1500 K), 5-8 $μ$m emission at $\sim$400 d to prominent 10 and 18 $μ$m emission features at later epochs ($\sim$600-2500 d). The cool dust temperatures range from $\sim120$ to $250$ K and dust masses from $\sim10^{-4}$ to $10^{-2} M_{\odot}$. The current sample shows no statistically significant correlation between measured dust mass and peak luminosity, plateau duration, or explosion energy. SNe with early high ionization features, indicative of confined CSM, are often among the dust-rich objects in the sample. The measured 1-7 yr dust yields are insufficient to account for dust in typical $z > 6$ galaxies, but support a role for CCSNe as producers of seed dust for subsequent grain growth.

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arXiv2026

JWST Spectra Indicate a Large Mass of Postshock Dust Formed by SN 2010jl

We present new JWST mid-IR spectra and ground-based optical spectra of the lingering source at the position of SN 2010jl, which was a relatively nearby superluminous Type IIn supernova having strong interaction with circumstellar material (CSM). Early-time data showed evidence of dust, interpreted as either pre-existing CSM dust, or as newly formed dust in the SN ejecta and post-shock region. At 13 yr post explosion, JWST reveals a strong MIR excess from warm dust, with broad features at 10-15 $μ$m. Our analysis reveals a minimum dust mass of $>$0.11 $M_{\odot}$, and a more likely value of 0.2 $M_{\odot}$ or more because the dust is optically thick. This is among the largest masses of SN-produced dust yet measured without far-IR/submm data, and greatly exceeds SN 2010jl's dust mass inferred around 2-3 yr post-explosion. Ground-based optical spectra confirm the presence of a young massive cluster at the SN position, and confirm that blueshifted line profiles persisting until the latest epochs arise from dust formed in the post-shock region. The warmest dust emitting in the MIR is likely to be the same post-shock dust causing the blueshift. The JWST spectrum also reveals silicate absorption, which may arise from cool SN ejecta dust along the line of sight to the receding shock. The large mass of post-shock dust in SN 2010jl suggests that strong CSM interaction promotes efficient dust production, where the new post-shock dust will survive. If strongly interacting SNe are common in the early Universe, this may contribute significantly to dust seen in infant galaxies.

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arXiv2026

A multiwavelength view of the nearby Calcium-Strong Transient SN 2025coe in the X-Ray, Near-Infrared, and Radio Wavebands

Calcium-strong transients (CaSTs) are a subclass of faint and rapidly evolving supernovae (SNe) that exhibit strong calcium features and notably weak oxygen features. The small but growing population of CaSTs exhibits some aspects similar to thermonuclear supernovae but others similar to massive star core-collapse events, leading to intriguing questions on their physical origins. SN~2025coe is one of the nearest CaSTs discovered to date, and our coordinated multi-wavelength observations obtained days to weeks post-explosion reveal new insights on these enigmatic transients. With the most robust NIR spectroscopic time-series of a CaST collected to date, SN 2025coe shows spectral signatures characteristic of Type Ib SNe (i.e. He-rich stripped-envelope SNe). SN~2025coe is the third X-ray detected CaST and our analysis of \textit{Swift} X-ray data suggest interaction with 0.12 $\pm\,0.11\ M_{\odot}$ of circumstellar material (CSM) extending to at least $2 \times 10^{15} $cm ($\sim 30,000\ R_{\odot}$, while our analysis of the 1--240 GHz radio non-detections gives an outer radius of that CSM of at most $\sim 5\times 10^{15}$ cm. This inferred nearby high-density CSM extending out to $(3.5 \pm 1.5) \times10^{15}$ cm is similar to that seen in the other two X-ray detected CaSTs, and its presence suggests that either intensive mass-loss from a massive star or some exotic pre-supernova mass ejection may be a common feature of this subclass. Our work also expands upon recent studies on the optical properties of SN 2025coe and explores our current understanding of different progenitor systems that could possibly produce CaSTs.

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arXiv2026

Ultraviolet to Infrared Spectroscopy of the Type Ibn SN 2023tsz Suggests a Lower-mass Progenitor

Type Ibn supernovae are stripped-envelope explosions whose spectra indicate interaction with dense, helium-rich and hydrogen-poor circumstellar material (CSM), making them important probes of late-stage mass loss and progenitor stripping. We present extensive ultraviolet-to-near-infrared spectrophotometry of the Type Ibn SN 2023tsz, including two epochs of HST/STIS ultraviolet (UV) spectroscopy and ground-based optical and near-infrared follow-up observations. The spectra are dominated by intermediate-width emission lines at all phases after maximum light, suggesting that much of the luminosity originates in a cold dense shell (CDS) formed by interaction between the ejecta and CSM. We compare the observations to one-dimensional non-local-thermodynamic-equilibrium radiative-transfer models of a helium-star explosion with a mass of $4 M_{\odot}$ at the onset of helium burning. The models reproduce the strong optical and near-infrared He I lines and require an added X-ray irradiation field to match the highly ionized UV features. The spectra are best reproduced by models with an X-ray irradiation power of $L_X \approx 10^8 L_{\odot}$, with the preferred models favoring CDS radii of order $(1.5$--$2) \times 10^{15}$ cm, velocities of $\sim 5 \times 10^7$ cm s$^{-1}$, and interaction powers of a few times $10^{42}$ erg s$^{-1}$. In the optical, the preferred models shift from higher interaction power and smaller radii at early times to lower power and larger radii at later times. These results add to the growing evidence that at least some SNe Ibn arise from lower-mass helium stars whose final evolution is shaped by binary interaction.

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arXiv2026

Evidence for Asymmetric Ejecta and Circumstellar Material in SN 2023ixf Inferred from Extensive Nebular-phase Observations

We present extensive optical and near-infrared (NIR) observations of the nearby Type II supernova (SN II) 2023ixf in the nebular phase from +89 days to +749 days after explosion, supplemented with NIR and mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy from the James Webb Space Telescope. The H$α$ emission profile shows complex evolution, with the emergence of high-velocity components consistent with the outer ejecta interacting with extended, low-density circumstellar material (CSM). We find that the H$α$ profile at an intermediate epoch (around +375 d) can be reconstructed by scaling an earlier decay-powered component and a later-phase shock-powered component, which revealed an additional intermediate-width component. This is consistent with the ejecta crashing into the initially aspherical dense CSM that has been swept-up by the forward shock. In the NIR, we find double-peaked emission from Mg I $1.504\ {\rm μm}$, Na I $2.206\ {\rm μm}$, and [Ni I] $3.12\ {\rm μm}$ between +200 d and +374 d, consistent with an asymmetric distribution of Ni-rich material that heats the ejecta inhomogeneously. We posit a disk-like CSM geometry and an ejecta geometry in which at least two large Ni-rich plumes lead to the observed line-profile diversity.

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arXiv2026

JWST observations of SN 2024abup: First Detection of CO in a broad-lined Type Ic Supernova and Constraints on r-process Nucleosynthesis

SN 2024abup is a nearby broad-lined Type Ic supernova (SN Ic-bl) in NGC 0681 at a distance of 23.3 \pm 1.6 Mpc. As energetic explosions of massive stars, SNe Ic-bl are considered a plausible site for rapid-neutron capture nucleosynthesis (r-process) and chemical enrichment from short-lived progenitors. They may also contribute to dust production in the early Universe. We present JWST near- to mid-infrared (NIR+MIR) observations (1-14 micron) of SN Ic-bl 2024abup at +41 days after the V band maximum (+54 days after explosion), the first-ever JWST+MIR observation of a SN Ic-bl along with radio and optical data. Using the spectral synthesis code SUMO, we identify the observed broad IR line features in SN 2024abup and find significant contributions from C, O, Mg, and carbon monoxide (CO) -- the earliest detection of molecules in a core-collapse SN so far. The spectrum shows continuum emission at wavelengths greater than 1.5 micron, which could be explained by dust -- preexisting, newly formed, or a combination-heated by the SN. We do not find compelling evidence for infrared signatures of r-process elements, though our search is hampered by the presence of many broad and blended features from the non-r-process elements. These new observations indicate that SNe Ic-bl could be a contributor to early-universe dust production, and suggest that if r-process elements are produced, revealing their presence from spectra requires very high-quality data and models to disentangle blends.

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arXiv2026

Detached Post-Algol Eclipsing Binaries Caught Between Case A and Case AB Mass Transfer

For sixty years, stellar evolutionary models have predicted that intermediate-mass stars slightly contract on the terminal-age main-sequence (TAMS) as they exhaust hydrogen in their convective cores, producing the main-sequence (MS) hook on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram. Contraction along the TAMS has not previously been observationally verified, but an evolved eclipsing binary (EB) with a component on the TAMS can test this prediction. In a very close binary with an orbital period of less than a week, the primary star initially fills its Roche lobe on the MS (Case A mass transfer), and the binary can invert mass ratios, producing a classical Algol. The subgiant donor then contracts on the TAMS and detaches slightly from its Roche lobe. The subgiant subsequently re-expands and refills its Roche lobe as it evolves toward the Hertzsprung Gap (Case AB mass transfer). We report the discovery of detached post-Algol EB candidates in the LMC caught between Case A and Case AB mass transfer. Their OGLE light curves feature strong reflection effects as the hot primary (former mass gainer) irradiates the cool subgiant secondary. We analyze multi-epoch echelle spectra of four post-Algol candidates taken with the MIKE spectrograph at the 6.5m Magellan-Clay telescope. The primaries have mid-B MS atmospheres (M1 = 6 - 8 Msun). We measure dynamical masses of the subgiant secondaries to be M2 = 0.9 - 1.2 Msun. Detailed fitting of the OGLE light curves with PHOEBE reveals that the subgiants have Roche lobe fill factors of RLF F2 = 73% - 89%, consistent with binary evolution models. Our discovery of detached post-Algol candidates provides the first empirical evidence that intermediate-mass stars contract along the TAMS.

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arXiv2026

First Results from the LSST Shadow Survey: The Restless Luminous Blue Variable AT2017des in the Virgo-Cluster Galaxy, NGC4532

The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will start in late-summer 2026, revolutionizing transient astronomy. Here, we present the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) Shadow Survey, which is designed to maximize the science potential of LSST by shadowing LSST observations of local galaxy-cluster fields, producing a nightly cadence of these fields. The Shadow Survey will discover extremely young supernovae (SNe), SN precursors, as well as other explosive transients and exotic phenomena, helping to characterize such transients at unprecedented cadence and depth when combined with LSST. We describe our workflow, pipeline, public data releases, and candidate vetting. As an early result of Shadow, we present the fitful luminous blue variable (LBV) eruptions of AT2017des in the Virgo-Cluster galaxy NGC4532. AT2017des has short-timescale variability (of order 10 days), peaking at around $M_r=-12.5$mag, brighter than normal LBVs, and similar to the more extreme flaring of hot LBVs/SN impostors such as SN2000ch, AT2016blu, and the precursor activity of SN2009ip. Our spectral time-series reveals features typical of these hot LBVs and SN impostors/precursors. Combining our data with long-baseline photometry from additional observatories, we find that the peaks of the outbursts of AT2017des are getting brighter over time, with 2026 peak fluxes being up to 5 times greater than in 2023 and an average brightening of $\sim0.05$ mag yr$^{-1}$. The peaks of AT2017des are more luminous than those of most other LBVs, only being fainter than bright precursors such as SN2009ip, and extreme SN impostors such as AT2016blu. AT2017des may therefore be ``ramping up'' to a terminal explosion.

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arXiv2026

An infrared echo from a circumstellar disk in the hydrogen- and helium-poor SN 2024aecx

We present near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy of the hydrogen- and helium-poor (Type Ic) supernova (SN) 2024aecx, which displays a strong NIR excess emerging 32 days post peak. SN 2024aecx is a peculiar SN Ic that exhibited luminous shock-cooling emission at early times, suggestive of close-in circumstellar medium (CSM), unexpected for this class of SNe. Its early NIR spectra are typical for a SN Ic but with strong C I absorption features. By $\sim$32 days post peak, the spectra show a strong NIR excess, while maintaining normal optical colors, unprecedented for SNe Ic. We find that the NIR excess is well fit with a single-temperature, optically thin dust model with declining temperature, increasing mass, and roughly constant luminosity over time. The NIR excess appears too promptly for dust to have formed in the SN ejecta, indicating an IR echo from pre-existing dust in the CSM. The IR echo is likely powered by the relatively slowly evolving SN peak light, and not the brief shock cooling emission, as the latter requires unrealistically high CSM densities to explain the observed dust mass. We consider different potential CSM geometries and find that a thick face-on disk with an inner edge of around $5\times 10^{16} \rm \ cm$ can best explain the dust mass and temperature evolution. In this scenario, the SN shock should start interacting with this CSM $440\pm200$ days post explosion. CSM around SN Ic is rare, and follow-up observations of SN 2024aecx will probe the mass-loss process responsible for removing hydrogen and helium from their progenitor star.

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arXiv2026

JWST spectroscopy of SN 2010da/NGC 300 ULX-1: a surviving star hidden by dust

We present new James Webb Space Telescope ($JWST$) NIRSpec and MIRI integral-field spectroscopy of the remarkable system SN~2010da / NGC~300 ULX-1, the only known ultraluminous X-ray source powered by a neutron star with a supergiant donor. Our new data, taken in November 2024, reveal that the optical and near-infrared counterpart has dramatically faded since 2018 and no longer exhibits molecular absorption features characteristic of a red supergiant. Instead, the spectral energy distribution shows the donor has returned to its pre-outburst appearance, and is dominated by infrared continuum consistent with an optically thick warm ($\approx$900~K) dust shell. The bolometric luminosity indicates the presence of a surviving luminous source with $\log(L/L_{\odot})=4.11\pm0.02$. Radiative transfer modelling of the mid-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) reveals a broad emission feature peaking near $\sim$11\,$μ$m, best reproduced by silicon carbide (SiC) dust grains, a composition typically associated with carbon-rich evolved stars. We rule out a failed supernova scenario, which would predict a large drop in luminosity and continued fading. Given the association of SiC dust with AGB stars, we suggest the donor star may be an AGB star that has survived and is now heavily enshrouded - having returned to a dust-obscured state following a transient post-outburst phase in which the system appeared as a red supergiant. We propose a revised evolutionary timeline in which the 2010 outburst initiated sustained super-Eddington accretion and temporarily altered the circumstellar environment. These observations provide rare insight into eruptive mass loss, dust formation, and binary interaction in a unique system.

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