arXiv subjects

Nathan W. C. Leigh

Publications and source records attributed to Nathan W. C. Leigh.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Intermediate States in Chaotic Triple Evolution and Applications to Black Hole Merger Statistics

Three-body interactions exhibit phases of strong chaotic evolution as well as hierarchical motion where one body separates from a binary and follows a hyperbolic or elliptic trajectory around it. The binaries produced during phases of hierarchical motion may lead to gravitational wave (GW) inspirals, but this depends on the outcomes of the chaotic states. In this paper we re-derive the elliptic outcome distribution using equilibrium statistical mechanics and explore it together with the hyperbolic distribution. When comparing to N-body simulations, we find that we can reduce the elliptic outcome model to one free parameter instead of the previously used two and that the predicted disintegration probabilities agree except for very low angular momentum triples. We then use both outcome distributions along with a star cluster model to design a Monte Carlo algorithm for repeated binary-single scatterings within dense star systems. We explore star cluster masses of $[10^5 - 10^7] M_{\odot}$, with the goal of quantifying observably eccentric merger (OEM) GWs, visible to instruments such as LIGO and Virgo. Assuming an OEM detection sensitivity of $f_{\rm min}=10 {\rm Hz}, e_{\rm min} = 0.1$, we find the elliptic OEMs are about $\sim (32 - 63)\%$ of the total elliptic mergers and that the total cluster mass greatly impacts the fraction of ejected binaries. The OEM to total merger fraction (OEM fraction) is found to be $(2.6 - 4.4)\%$. Considering the detection sensitivity that GW interferometers have today $(f_{\rm min} \simeq 34.4 {\rm Hz})$ we obtain the OEM fraction in the $(1.6 - 3.1)\%$ range.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Demographics of black holes at $<$100 R$_{\rm g}$ scales: accretion flows, jets, and shadows

Using the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), the gravitationally lensed rings around the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in Messier 87 (M87) and Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) have now been successfully imaged at a resolution under 10 gravitational radii (R$_{\rm g}$ $ = \rm{GM/c^2}$). To expand studies beyond M87 and Sgr A*, we have constructed the Event Horizon and Environs (ETHER) sample, a comprehensive database encompassing approximately 3.15 million SMBH mass estimates, $\sim$ 20,000 Very-Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) radio flux densities, and $\sim$ 36,000 hard X-ray flux densities. This database is designed to identify and optimize target selection for the EHT and its upgrades on the ground and in space. We have identified a Gold Sample (GS) of nearby low-luminosity Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) within it that are ideal for studying jet bases and potentially imaging black hole shadows. We observed 27 of these AGNs using the EHT from 2022 to 2024, providing an opportunity to resolve and image accretion flows and jets at resolutions of $\leq$ 100 R$_{\rm g}$. Only a few SMBHs have sufficiently high enough flux density to be imaged at scales of $\leq$ 50 R$_{\rm g}$ with the present EHT. Among these are M87, Sgr A*, NGC4594 (Sombrero/M104), NGC4261, and NGC4374 (Messier 84/M84). Of these, NGC4261, Sombrero, and M84 have been observed and/or are scheduled for deep imaging with EHT+ALMA from 2023 to 2025. Sombrero, NGC4261, M84, NGC4278, and NGC5232 are clearly detected in our EHT+ALMA observations in 2022, indicating that the 230 GHz flux density from the accretion flows is significantly high. Ongoing imaging of the ETHER GS will enable measurements of black hole mass and spin, help constrain General Relativity, and enrich our understanding of jet launching and accretion inflows across a broad multi-parameter space, including black hole mass, spin, accretion rate, and orientation.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Isles of regularity in a sea of chaos amid the gravitational three-body problem

The three-body problem (3BP) poses a longstanding challenge in physics and celestial mechanics. Despite the impossibility of obtaining general analytical solutions, statistical theories have been developed based on the ergodic principle. This assumption is justified by chaos, which is expected to fully mix the accessible phase space of the 3BP. This study probes the presence of regular (i.e. non chaotic) trajectories within the 3BP and assesses their impact on statistical escape theories. Using numerical simulations, we establish criteria for identifying regular trajectories and analyse their impact on statistical outcomes. Our analysis reveals that regular trajectories occupy up to 32% of the phase space, and their outcomes defy the predictions of statistical escape theories. The coexistence of regular and chaotic regions at all scales is characterized by a multi-fractal behaviour. Integration errors manifest as numerical chaos, artificially enhancing the mixing of the phase space and affecting the reliability of individual simulations, yet preserving the statistical correctness of an ensemble of realizations. Our findings underscore the challenges in applying statistical escape theories to astrophysical problems, as they may bias results by excluding the outcome of regular trajectories. This is particularly important in the context of formation scenarios of gravitational wave mergers, where biased estimates of binary eccentricity can significantly impact estimates of coalescence efficiency and detectable eccentricity.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

A catalogue of Galactic GEMS: Globular cluster Extra-tidal Mock Stars

This work presents the Globular cluster Extra-tidal Mock Star (GEMS) catalogue of extra-tidal stars and binaries created via three-body dynamical encounters in globular cluster cores. Using the particle-spray code Corespray, we sample N=50,000 extra-tidal stars and escaped recoil binaries for 159 Galactic globular clusters. Sky positions, kinematics, stellar properties and escape information are provided for all simulated stars. Stellar orbits are integrated in seven different static and time-varying Milky Way gravitational potential models where the structure of the disc, perturbations from the Large Magellanic Cloud and the mass and sphericity of the Milky Way's dark matter halo are all investigated. We find that the action coordinates of the mock extra-tidal stars are largely Galactic model independent, where minor offsets and broadening of the distributions between models are likely due to interactions with substructure. Importantly, we also report the first evidence for stellar stream contamination by globular cluster core stars and binaries for clusters with pericentre radii larger than five kiloparsecs. Finally, we provide a quantitative tool that uses action coordinates to match field stars to host clusters with probabilities. Ultimately, combining data from the GEMS catalogue with information of observed stars will allow for association of extra-tidal field stars with any Galactic globular cluster; a requisite tool for understanding population-level dynamics and evolution of clusters in the Milky Way.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Chaos in the vicinity of a singularity in the Three-Body Problem: The equilateral triangle experiment in the zero angular momentum limit

We present numerical simulations of the gravitational three-body problem, in which three particles lie at rest close to the vertices of an equilateral triangle. In the unperturbed problem, the three particles fall towards the center of mass of the system to form a three-body collision, or singularity, where the particles overlap in space and time. By perturbing the initial positions of the particles, we are able to study chaos in the vicinity of the singularity. Here we cover both the singular region close to the unperturbed configuration and the binary-single scattering regime where one side of the triangle is very short compared to the other two. We make phase space plots to study the regular and ergodic subsets of our simulations and compare them with the outcomes expected from the statistical escape theory of the three-body problem. We further provide fits to the ergodic subset to characterize the properties of the left-over binaries. We identify the discrepancy between the statistical theory and the simulations in the regular subset of interactions, which only exhibits weak chaos. As we decrease the scale of the perturbations in the initial positions, the phase space becomes entirely dominated by regular interactions, according to our metric for chaos. Finally, we show the effect of general relativity corrections by simulating the same scenario with the inclusion of post-Newtonian corrections to the equations of motion.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2023

The dominant mechanism(s) for populating the outskirts of star clusters with neutron star binaries

It has been argued that heavy binaries composed of neutron stars (NSs) and millisecond pulsars (MSPs) can end up in the outskirts of star clusters via an interaction with a massive black hole (BH) binary expelling them from the core. We argue here, however, that this mechanism will rarely account for such observed objects. Only for primary masses $\lesssim$ 100 M$_{\odot}$ and a narrow range of orbital separations should a BH-BH binary be both dynamically hard and produce a sufficiently low recoil velocity to retain the NS binary in the cluster. Hence, BH binaries are in general likely to eject NSs from clusters. We explore several alternative mechanisms that would cause NS/MSP binaries to be observed in the outskirts of their host clusters after a Hubble time. The most likely mechanism is a three-body interaction involving the NS/MSP binary and a normal star. We compare to Monte Carlo simulations of cluster evolution for the globular clusters NGC 6752 and 47 Tuc, and show that the models not only confirm that normal three-body interactions involving all stellar-mass objects are the dominant mechanism for putting NS/MSP binaries into the cluster outskirts, they also reproduce the observed NS/MSP binary radial distributions without needing to invoke the presence of a massive BH binary. Higher central densities and an episode of core-collapse can broaden the radial distributions of NSs/MSPs and NS/MSP binaries due to three-body interactions, making these clusters more likely to host NSs in the cluster outskirts.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

The chaotic four-body problem in Newtonian gravity -- II. An ansatz-based approach to analytic solutions

In this paper, we continue our analysis of the chaotic four-body problem by presenting a general ansatz-based analytic treatment using statistical mechanics, where each outcome of the four-body problem is regarded as some variation of the three-body problem (e.g., when two single stars are produced, called the 2+1+1 outcome, each ejection event is modeled as its own three-body interaction by assuming that the ejections are well separated in time). This is a generalization of the statistical mechanics treatment of the three-body problem based on the density-of-states formalism. In our case, we focus on the interaction of two binary systems, after which we divide our results into three possible outcome scenarios (2+2, 2+1+1, and 3+1). For each outcome, we apply an ansatz-based approach to deriving analytic distribution functions that describe the properties of the products of chaotic four-body interactions involving point particles. To test our theoretical distributions, we perform a set of scattering simulations in the equal-mass point particle limit using FEWBODY. We compare our final theoretical distributions to the simulations for each particular scenario, finding consistently good agreement between the two. The highlights of our results include that binary-binary scatterings act to systematically destroy binaries producing instead a single binary and two ejected stars or a stable triple, the 2+2 outcome produces the widest binaries and the 2+1+1 outcome produces the most compact binaries.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2023

Aligning Retrograde Nuclear Cluster Orbits with an Active Galactic Nucleus Accretion Disc

Stars and stellar remnants orbiting a supermassive black hole (SMBH) can interact with an active galactic nucleus (AGN) disc. Over time, prograde orbiters (inclination $i<90^{\circ}$) decrease inclination, as well as semi-major axis $(a)$ and eccentricity $(e)$ until orbital alignment with the gas disc ('disc capture'). Captured stellar-origin black holes (sBH) add to the embedded AGN population which drives sBH-sBH mergers detectable in gravitational waves using LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) or sBH-SMBH mergers detectable with LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna). Captured stars can be tidally disrupted by sBH or the SMBH or rapidly grow into massive 'immortal' stars. Here, we investigate the behaviour of polar and retrograde orbiters $(i \geq 90^{\circ})$ interacting with the disc. We show that retrograde stars are captured faster than prograde stars, flip to prograde orientation $(i<90^{\circ})$ during capture, and decrease $a$ dramatically towards the SMBH. For sBH, we find a critical angle $i_{\rm ret} \sim 113^{\circ}$, below which retrograde sBH decay towards embedded prograde orbits $(i \to 0^{\circ})$, while for $i_{\rm o}>i_{\rm ret}$ sBH decay towards embedded retrograde orbits $(i \to 180^{\circ})$. sBH near polar orbits $(i \sim 90^{\circ})$ and stars on nearly embedded retrograde orbits $(i \sim 180^{\circ})$ show the greatest decreases in $a$. Whether a star is captured by the disc within an AGN lifetime depends primarily on disc density, and secondarily on stellar type and initial $a$. For sBH, disc capture-time is longest for polar orbits, low mass sBH and lower density discs. Larger mass sBH should typically spend more time in AGN discs, with implications for the embedded sBH spin distribution.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Searching for the extra-tidal stars of globular clusters using high-dimensional analysis and a core particle spray code

Three-body interactions can eject stars from the core of a globular cluster, causing them to enter the Galactic halo as extra-tidal stars. While finding extra-tidal stars is imperative for understanding cluster evolution, connecting isolated extra-tidal field stars back to their birth cluster is extremely difficult. In this work, we present a new methodology consisting of high-dimensional data analysis and a particle spray code to identify extra-tidal stars of any Galactic globular cluster using M3 as a case study. Using the t-Stochastic Neighbour Embedding (t-SNE) and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) machine learning dimensionality reduction algorithms, we first identify a set of 103 extra-tidal candidates in the APOGEE DR17 data catalogue with chemical abundances similar to M3 stars. To confirm each candidate's extra-tidal nature, we introduce corespray - a new Python-based three-body particle spray code that simulates extra-tidal stars for any Galactic globular cluster. Using Gaia EDR3 proper motions and APOGEE DR17 radial velocities, we apply multivariate Gaussian modelling and an extreme deconvolution to identify the extra-tidal candidates that are more likely to be associated with a distribution of corespray-simulated M3 extra-tidal stars than the field. Through these methods, we identify 10 new high-probability extra-tidal stars produced via three-body interactions in M3. We also explore whether any of our extra-tidal candidates are consistent with being ejected from M3 through different dynamical processes. Future applications of corespray will yield better understandings of core dynamics, star formation histories and binary fractions in globular clusters.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Globular Cluster UVIT legacy Survey (GlobUleS) III. Omega Centauri in Far-Ultraviolet

We present the first comprehensive study of the most massive globular cluster Omega Centauri in the far-ultraviolet (FUV) extending from the center to ~ 28% of the tidal radius using the Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope aboard AstroSat. A comparison of the FUV-optical color-magnitude diagrams with available canonical models reveals that the horizontal branch (HB) stars bluer than the knee (hHBs) and the white dwarfs (WDs) are fainter in the FUV by ~ 0.5 mag than model predictions. They are also fainter than their counterparts in M13, another massive cluster. We simulated HB with at least five subpopulations, including three He-rich populations with a substantial He enrichment of Y up to 0.43 dex, to reproduce the observed FUV distribution. We find the He-rich younger subpopulations to be radially more segregated than the He-normal older ones, suggesting an in-situ enrichment from older generations. The Omega Cen hHBs span the same effective temperature range as their M13 counterparts, but some have smaller radii and lower luminosities. This may suggest that a fraction of Omega Cen hHBs are less massive than those of M13, similar to the result derived from earlier spectroscopic studies of outer extreme HB stars. The WDs in Omega Cen and M13 have similar luminosity-radius-effective temperature parameters, and 0.44 - 0.46 M$_\odot$ He-core WD model tracks evolving from progenitors with Y = 0.4 dex are found to fit the majority of these. This study provides constraints on the formation models of Omega Cen based on the estimated range in age, [Fe/H] and Y (in particular), for the HB stars.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Tidal Disruption Events by Compact Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Stars can be tidally destroyed or swallowed by supermassive black hole binaries. Using a large number of accurate few-body simulations, we investigate the enhancement and suppression of full and partial disruption and direct capture events by hard supermassive black hole binaries with a wide ranges of key parameters, i.e., the primary black hole mass ($10^{5}-10^{8}M_{\odot}$), the binary mass ratio ($10^{-3}-1$), the ratio of the binary semimajor axis to the hardening radius ($10^{-4}-1$), the binary eccentricity ($0.0-0.9$) and the stellar mass ($0.3-3M_{\odot}$). This is a significant extension of the parameter space compared to previous work. We show that the encounter probabilities of all three events are well-described by the encounter cross section, which is proportional to the pericenter distance. The probability of full disruptions by supermassive black hole binaries can be enhanced by up to a factor of $40-50$ or suppressed by up to a factor of $10$, relative to that by single black holes, depending on the binary parameters. Relativistic effects are not important for the primary black hole mass $\leq 10^{7}M_{\odot}$, but can provide an additional enhancement of the full disruption probability by less than a factor of $2-3$ for higher primary black hole masses. We provide a fitting formula for the full disruption probability by the hard supermassive black hole binaries that works for a wide range of parameters. We also find that partial disruption events can occur multiple times before full disruptions or direct captures, and their probabilities can be greater than that of full disruption events by a factor of three. Because partial disruption events can induce stellar spins and mass loss and change the orbits, it can significantly affect the overall full disruption event rate and the shape of the light curves.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

The mean free path approximation and stellar collisions in star clusters: Numerical exploration of the analytic rates and the role of perturbations on binary star mergers

In this paper we compute predictions for the number of stellar collisions derived from analytic models based on the mean free path (MFP) approximation and compare them to the results of $N$-body simulations. Our goal is to identify the cluster conditions under which the MFP approximation remains valid. Adopting a range of particle numbers ($100\leq N\leq5000$) and different combinations of particle masses and radii, we explore three different channels leading to stellar collisions, all of which are expected to occur in realistic stellar environments. At high densities, binaries form from isolated three-body interactions of single stars. Hence, we consider collisions between single stars and collisions involving binary stars, after they form in our simulations. For the latter, we consider two channels for mergers, namely direct stellar collisions during chaotic single-binary interactions and perturbation-driven mergers of binaries due to random walks in eccentricity approaching unity. In the densest systems considered here, a very massive object is formed at the cluster centre, causing local stellar orbits to become increasingly Keplerian and the assumptions going into our analytic model to break down. Before reaching this limit, we obtain excellent agreement between our theoretical predictions and the simulations: the analytic rates are typically accurate to within one standard deviation for the entire parameter space considered here, but the agreement is best for short integration times. Our results have direct implications for blue straggler formation in dense star clusters, and stellar mergers in galactic nuclei hosting massive black holes.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

Symmetry Breaking in Dynamical Encounters in the Disks of Active Galactic Nuclei

Active galactic nucleus (AGN) disks may be important sites of binary black hole (BBH) mergers. Here we show via numerical experiments with the high-accuracy, high precision code {\tt SpaceHub} that broken symmetry in dynamical encounters in AGN disks can lead to an asymmetry between prograde and retrograde BBH mergers. The direction of the hardening asymmetry depends on the initial binary semi-major axis. An asymmetric distribution of mass-weighted projected spin $χ_{\rm eff}$ should therefore be expected in LIGO-Virgo detections of BBH mergers from AGN disks. This channel further predicts that negative $χ_{\rm eff}$ BBH mergers are most likely for massive binaries.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Hot Jupiter formation in dense clusters: secular chaos in multi-planetary systems

Exoplanetary observations reveal that the occurrence rate of hot Jupiters is correlated with star clustering. In star clusters, interactions between planetary systems and close fly-by stars can significantly change the architecture of primordially coplanar, circular planetary systems. Flybys in dense clusters have a significant impact on hot Jupiter formation via activation of high eccentricity excitation mechanisms such as the Zeipel-Lidov-Kozai (ZLK) effect and planet-planet scattering. Previous studies have shown that if there are two giant planets in the planetary system, close flybys can efficiently activate the ZLK mechanism, thus triggering high eccentricity tidal migration and ultimately form hot Jupiters in star clusters. Here we extend our previous study with a multi-planet (triple) system. We perform high precision, high-accuracy few-body simulations of stellar flybys and subsequent planetary migration within the perturbed planetary systems using the code {\tt SpaceHub}. Our simulations demonstrate that a single close flyby on a multi-planet system in a cluster can activate secular chaos and ultimately lead to hot Jupiter formation via high eccentricity migration. We find that the hot Jupiter formation rate per system increases with both the size of the planetary system as well as with the mass of the outer planet, and we quantify the relative formation fractions for a range of parameters. Hot Jupiters formed via secular chaos are expected to be accompanied by massive companions with very long periods. Our study further shows that this flyby-induced secular chaos is preferred in low-density clusters where multi-planet systems are more likely to survive, and that it contributes a significant fraction of the hot Jupiter formation in star clusters compared to the flyby-induced ZLK mechanism.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Formation of supermassive black hole seeds in nuclear star clusters via gas accretion and runaway collisions

More than two hundred supermassive black holes (SMBHs) of masses $\gtrsim 10^9\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ have been discovered at $z \gtrsim 6$. One promising pathway for the formation of SMBHs is through the collapse of supermassive stars (SMSs) with masses $\sim 10^{3-5}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ into seed black holes which could grow upto few times $10^9\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ SMBHs observed at $z\sim 7$. In this paper, we explore how SMSs with masses $\sim 10^{3-5}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ could be formed via gas accretion and runaway stellar collisions in high-redshift, metal-poor nuclear star clusters (NSCs) using idealised N-body simulations. We explore physically motivated accretion scenarios, e.g. Bondi-Hoyle-Lyttleton accretion and Eddington accretion, as well as simplified scenarios such as constant accretions. While gas is present, the accretion timescale remains considerably shorter than the timescale for collisions with the most massive object (MMO). However, overall the timescale for collisions between any two stars in the cluster can become comparable or shorter than the accretion timescale, hence collisions still play a crucial role in determining the final mass of the SMSs. We find that the problem is highly sensitive to the initial conditions and our assumed recipe for the accretion, due to the highly chaotic nature of the problem. The key variables that determine the mass growth mechanism are the mass of the MMO and the gas reservoir that is available for the accretion. Depending on different conditions, SMSs of masses $\sim10^{3-5} \,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ can form for all three accretion scenarios considered in this work.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

Spin misalignment of black hole binaries from young star clusters: implications for the origin of gravitational waves events

Recent studies indicate that the progenitors of merging black hole (BH) binaries from young star clusters can undergo a common envelope phase just like isolated binaries. If the stars emerge from the common envelope as naked cores, tidal interactions can efficiently synchronize their spins before they collapse into BHs. Contrary to the isolated case, these binary BHs can also undergo dynamical interactions with other BHs in the cluster before merging. The interactions can tilt the binary orbital plane, leading to spin-orbit misalignment. We estimate the spin properties of merging binary BHs undergoing this scenario by combining up-to-date binary population synthesis and accurate few-body simulations. We show that post-common envelope binary BHs are likely to undergo only a single encounter, due to the high binary recoil velocity and short coalescence times. Adopting conservative limits on the binary-single encounter rates, we obtain a local BH merger rate density of ~6.6 yr^-1 Gpc^-3. Assuming low (<0.2) natal BH spins, this scenario reproduces the trends in the distributions of effective spin Xeff and precession parameters Xp inferred from GWTC-2, including the peaks at (Xeff, Xp) ~ (0.1, 0.2) and the tail at negative Xeff values.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Evolution of Retrograde Orbiters in an AGN Disk

AGN disks have been proposed as promising locations for the mergers of stellar mass black hole binaries (BBHs). Much recent work has been done on this merger channel, but the majority focuses on stellar mass black holes (BHs) orbiting in the prograde direction. Little work has been done to examine the impact of retrograde orbiters (ROs) on the formation and mergers of BBHs in AGN disks. Quantifying the retrograde contribution is important, since roughly half of all orbiters should initially be on retrograde orbits when the disk forms. We perform an analytic calculation of the evolution of ROs in an AGN disk. Because this evolution could cause the orbits of ROs to cross those of prograde BBHs, we derive the collision rate between a given RO and a given BBH orbiting in the prograde direction. In the examples given here, ROs in the inner region of the disk experience a rapid decrease in the semimajor axis of their orbits while also becoming highly eccentric in less than a million years. This rapid orbital evolution could lead to extreme mass ratio inspirals detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna. The collision rates of our example ROs with prograde BBHs in the migration trap depend strongly on the volume of the inner radiation-pressure-dominated region which depends on the mass of the supermassive black hole (SMBH). Rates are lowest for larger mass SMBHs, which dominate the AGN merger channel, suggesting that merger rates for this channel may not be significantly altered by ROs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Testing the Flux-based statistical prediction of the Three-Body Problem

We present an extensive comparison between the statistical properties of non-hierarchical three-body systems and the corresponding three-body theoretical predictions. We perform and analyze 1 million realizations for each different initial condition considering equal and unequal mass three-body systems to provide high accuracy statistics. We measure 4 quantities characterizing the statistical distribution of ergodic disintegrations: escape probability of each body, the characteristic exponent for escapes by a narrow margin, predicted absorptivity as a function of binary energy and binary angular momentum, and, finally, the lifetime distribution. The escape probabilities are shown to be in agreement down to the 1% level with the emissivity-blind, flux-based theoretical prediction. This represents a leap in accuracy compared to previous three-body statistical theories. The characteristic exponent at the threshold for marginally unbound escapes is an emissivity-independent flux-based prediction, and the measured values are found to agree well with the prediction. We interpret both tests as strong evidence for the flux-based three-body statistical formalism. The predicted absorptivity and lifetime distributions are measured to enable future tests of statistical theories.

astro-ph.EP↗