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Nattavudh Powdthavee

Publications and source records attributed to Nattavudh Powdthavee.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

Do Large Language Models Encode Institutional Experience? Evidence from Cross-Linguistic Moral Reasoning Under Ambiguity

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit systematic differences in moral reasoning across languages, yet the source of this variation remains unclear. We test the hypothesis that languages encode aspects of the institutional environments in which they are spoken, allowing LLMs to inherit institution-specific moral priors through training. Across nine languages spanning a broad gradient of institutional quality, six frontier LLMs, and two preregistered studies, we examine moral dilemmas whose acceptability depends on institutional functioning. In Study 1, explicit institutional framing produced uniformly null results: cross-linguistic moral divergence did not increase in institutionally contingent scenarios, nor did it track institutional differences between language communities. In Study 2, we introduced institutionally ambiguous scenarios in which institutional stakes were present but not explicitly stated. Under these conditions, cross-linguistic moral divergence increased relative to institutionally inert controls and, with one theoretically informative exception, was associated with real-world institutional differences between language communities. Explicit framing again attenuated these effects. These findings suggest that institutional experience may leave detectable traces in language that shape LLM moral reasoning, while also indicating that explicit institutional cues can suppress the expression of those differences.

cs.CL

Large Language Models Outperform Humans in Fraud Detection and Resistance to Motivated Investor Pressure

Large language models trained on human feedback may suppress fraud warnings when investors arrive already persuaded of a fraudulent opportunity. We tested this in a preregistered experiment across seven leading LLMs and twelve investment scenarios covering legitimate, high-risk, and objectively fraudulent opportunities, combining 3,360 AI advisory conversations with a 1,201-participant human benchmark. Contrary to predictions, motivated investor framing did not suppress AI fraud warnings; if anything, it marginally increased them. Endorsement reversal occurred in fewer than 3 in 1,000 observations. Human advisors endorsed fraudulent investments at baseline rates of 13-14%, versus 0% across all LLMs, and suppressed warnings under pressure at two to four times the AI rate. AI systems currently provide more consistent fraud warnings than lay humans in an identical advisory role.

cs.AI

How Much do People Care about Climate Natural Disasters?

Scientists agree about the urgency of the problem of climate change. Most citizens, however, pay little attention to gradually increasing temperature levels. Growing numbers of natural disasters in the world might then play a fundamental role as the key signal to alert humanity to the severity of the problem of the changing climate. But is that potential mechanism working? In this empirical examination (N>2 million over three decades in 93 countries), we show for the first time that a typical person's happiness and life satisfaction is barely affected by natural disasters in their region. Yet these are the individuals -- as opposed to the minority literally flooded or literally badly affected by hurricanes -- who effectively shape how governments act. This study's ``psychological near-irrelevance'' result is deeply troubling.

econ.GN

AI-Generated Letters from the Future: A Randomized Test of Personalized Climate Communication

We examined whether personalized, AI-generated letters from the future can increase public engagement with climate action. In a preregistered online experiment with 1,654 U.S. parents, participants were randomly assigned to receive either a fact-based climate report, an AI-generated letter from a generic future person, or an AI-generated letter framed as written by their future child. Although both narrative conditions increased empathic concern for future generations, neither had a detectable effect on stated climate policy support or donations to an environmental charity. Personalizing the message as coming from one's future child did not enhance its impact. Exploratory analyses suggest that both narratives led to more emotionally differentiated appraisals of future scenarios, yet also made desirable climate outcomes seem less likely. These findings highlight key constraints on the effectiveness of AI-generated narrative interventions and underscore the importance of balancing emotional resonance with perceived credibility in climate communication.

cs.CY

Large language models accurately predict public perceptions of support for climate action worldwide

Although most people support climate action, widespread underestimation of others' support stalls individual and systemic changes. In this preregistered experiment, we test whether large language models (LLMs) can reliably predict these perception gaps worldwide. Using country-level indicators and public opinion data from 125 countries, we benchmark four state-of-the-art LLMs against Gallup World Poll 2021/22 data and statistical regressions. LLMs, particularly Claude, accurately capture public perceptions of others' willingness to contribute financially to climate action (MAE approximately 5 p.p.; r = .77), comparable to statistical models, though performance declines in less digitally connected, lower-GDP countries. Controlled tests show that LLMs capture the key psychological process - social projection with a systematic downward bias - and rely on structured reasoning rather than memorized values. Overall, LLMs provide a rapid tool for assessing perception gaps in climate action, serving as an alternative to costly surveys in resource-rich countries and as a complement in underrepresented populations.

cs.CY

Simulating Life Paths with Digital Twins: AI-Generated Future Selves Influence Decision-Making and Expand Human Choice

Major life transitions demand high-stakes decisions, yet people often struggle to imagine how their future selves will live with the consequences. To support this limited capacity for mental time travel, we introduce AI-enabled digital twins that have ``lived through'' simulated life scenarios. Rather than predicting optimal outcomes, these simulations extend prospective cognition by making alternative futures vivid enough to support deliberation without assuming which path is best. We evaluate this idea in a randomized controlled study (N=192) using multimodal synthesis - facial age progression, voice cloning, and large language model dialogue - to create personalized avatars representing participants 30 years forward. Young adults 18 to 28 years old described pending binary decisions and were assigned to guided imagination or one of four avatar conditions: single-option, balanced dual-option, or expanded three-option with a system-generated novel alternative. Results showed asymmetric effects: single-sided avatars increased shifts toward the presented option, while balanced presentation produced movement toward both. Introducing a system-generated third option increased adoption of this new alternative compared to control, suggesting that AI-generated future selves can expand choice by surfacing paths that might otherwise go unnoticed. Participants rated evaluative reasoning and eudaimonic meaning-making as more important than emotional or visual vividness. Perceived persuasiveness and baseline agency predicted decision change. These findings advance understanding of AI-mediated episodic prospection and raise questions about autonomy in AI-augmented decisions.

cs.HC

Large Language Models Predict Human Well-being -- But Not Equally Everywhere

Subjective well-being is a key metric in economic, medical, and policy decision-making. As artificial intelligence provides scalable tools for modelling human outcomes, it is crucial to evaluate whether large language models (LLMs) can accurately predict well-being across diverse global populations. We evaluate four leading LLMs using data from 64,000 individuals in 64 countries. While LLMs capture broad correlates such as income and health, their predictive accuracy decreases in countries underrepresented in the training data, highlighting systematic biases rooted in global digital and economic inequality. A pre-registered experiment demonstrates that LLMs rely on surface-level linguistic similarity rather than conceptual understanding, leading to systematic misestimations in unfamiliar or resource-limited settings. Injecting findings from underrepresented contexts substantially enhances performance, but a significant gap remains. These results highlight both the promise and limitations of LLMs in predicting global well-being, underscoring the importance of robust validation prior to their implementation across these areas.

cs.HC

Can AI Solve the Peer Review Crisis? A Large Scale Cross Model Experiment of LLMs' Performance and Biases in Evaluating over 1000 Economics Papers

This study examines the potential of large language models (LLMs) to augment the academic peer review process by reliably evaluating the quality of economics research without introducing systematic bias. We conduct one of the first large-scale experimental assessments of four LLMs (GPT-4o, Claude 3.5, Gemma 3, and LLaMA 3.3) across two complementary experiments. In the first, we use nonparametric binscatter and linear regression techniques to analyze over 29,000 evaluations of 1,220 anonymized papers drawn from 110 economics journals excluded from the training data of current LLMs, along with a set of AI-generated submissions. The results show that LLMs consistently distinguish between higher- and lower-quality research based solely on textual content, producing quality gradients that closely align with established journal prestige measures. Claude and Gemma perform exceptionally well in capturing these gradients, while GPT excels in detecting AI-generated content. The second experiment comprises 8,910 evaluations designed to assess whether LLMs replicate human like biases in single blind reviews. By systematically varying author gender, institutional affiliation, and academic prominence across 330 papers, we find that GPT, Gemma, and LLaMA assign significantly higher ratings to submissions from top male authors and elite institutions relative to the same papers presented anonymously. These results emphasize the importance of excluding author-identifying information when deploying LLMs in editorial screening. Overall, our findings provide compelling evidence and practical guidance for integrating LLMs into peer review to enhance efficiency, improve accuracy, and promote equity in the publication process of economics research.

cs.CY

Algorithmic Inheritance: Surname Bias in AI Decisions Reinforces Intergenerational Inequality

Surnames often convey implicit markers of social status, wealth, and lineage, shaping perceptions in ways that can perpetuate systemic biases and intergenerational inequality. This study is the first of its kind to investigate whether and how surnames influence AI-driven decision-making, focusing on their effects across key areas such as hiring recommendations, leadership appointments, and loan approvals. Using 72,000 evaluations of 600 surnames from the United States and Thailand, two countries with distinct sociohistorical contexts and surname conventions, we classify names into four categories: Rich, Legacy, Normal, and phonetically similar Variant groups. Our findings show that elite surnames consistently increase AI-generated perceptions of power, intelligence, and wealth, which in turn influence AI-driven decisions in high-stakes contexts. Mediation analysis reveals perceived intelligence as a key mechanism through which surname biases influence AI decision-making process. While providing objective qualifications alongside surnames mitigates most of these biases, it does not eliminate them entirely, especially in contexts where candidate credentials are low. These findings highlight the need for fairness-aware algorithms and robust policy measures to prevent AI systems from reinforcing systemic inequalities tied to surnames, an often-overlooked bias compared to more salient characteristics such as race and gender. Our work calls for a critical reassessment of algorithmic accountability and its broader societal impact, particularly in systems designed to uphold meritocratic principles while counteracting the perpetuation of intergenerational privilege.

cs.CY

Temperature Variability and Natural Disasters

This paper studies natural disasters and the psychological costs of climate change. It presents what we believe to be the first evidence that higher temperature variability and not a higher level of temperature is what predicts natural disasters. This conclusion holds whether or not we control for the (incorrectly signed) impact of temperature. The analysis draws upon long-differences regression equations using GDIS data from 1960-2018 for 176 countries and the contiguous states of the USA. Results are checked on FEMA data. Wellbeing impact losses are calculated. To our knowledge, the paper's results are unknown to natural and social scientists.

econ.GN

How effective are covid-19 vaccine health messages in reducing vaccine skepticism? Heterogeneity in messages effectiveness by just world beliefs

To end the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers have relied on various public health messages to boost vaccine take-up rates amongst people across wide political spectra, backgrounds, and worldviews. However, much less is understood about whether these messages affect different people in the same way. One source of heterogeneity is the belief in a just world (BJW), which is the belief that in general, good things happen to good people, and bad things happen to bad people. This study investigates the effectiveness of two common messages of the COVID-19 pandemic: vaccinate to protect yourself and vaccinate to protect others in your community. We then examine whether BJW moderates the effectiveness of these messages. We hypothesize that just-world believers react negatively to the prosocial pro-vaccine message, as it charges individuals with the responsibility to care for others around them. Using an unvaccinated sample of UK residents before vaccines were made widely available (N=526), we demonstrate that the individual-focused message significantly reduces overall vaccine skepticism, and that this effect is more robust for individuals with a low BJW, whereas the community-focused message does not. Our findings highlight the importance of individual differences in the reception of public health messages to reduce COVID-19 vaccine skepticism.

econ.GN

Robust Ranking of Happiness Outcomes: A Median Regression Perspective

Ordered probit and logit models have been frequently used to estimate the mean ranking of happiness outcomes (and other ordinal data) across groups. However, it has been recently highlighted that such ranking may not be identified in most happiness applications. We suggest researchers focus on median comparison instead of the mean. This is because the median rank can be identified even if the mean rank is not. Furthermore, median ranks in probit and logit models can be readily estimated using standard statistical softwares. The median ranking, as well as ranking for other quantiles, can also be estimated semiparametrically and we provide a new constrained mixed integer optimization procedure for implementation. We apply it to estimate a happiness equation using General Social Survey data of the US.

econ.EM

Predicting Emotional Volatility Using 41,000 Participants in the United Kingdom

Emotional volatility is a human universal. Yet there has been no large-scale scientific study of predictors of that phenomenon. Building from previous works, which had been ad hoc and based on tiny samples, this paper reports the first large-scale estimation of volatility in human emotional experiences. Our study draws from a large sample of intrapersonal variation in moment-to-moment happiness from over three million observations by 41,023 UK individuals. Holding other things constant, we show that emotional volatility is highest among women with children, the separated, the poor, and the young. Women without children report substantially greater emotional volatility than men with and without children. For any given rate of volatility, women with children also experience more frequent extreme emotional lows than any other socio-demographic group. Our results, which are robust to different specification tests, enable researchers and policymakers to quantify and prioritise different determinants of intrapersonal variability in human emotions.

econ.GN

Reputation as insurance: how reputation moderates public backlash following a company's decision to profiteer

We examine whether a company's corporate reputation gained from their CSR activities and a company leader's reputation, one that is unrelated to his or her business acumen, can impact economic action fairness appraisals. We provide experimental evidence that good corporate reputation causally buffers individuals' negative fairness judgment following the firm's decision to profiteer from an increase in the demand. Bad corporate reputation does not make the decision to profiteer as any less acceptable. However, there is evidence that individuals judge as more unfair an ill-reputed firm's decision to raise their product's price to protect against losses. Thus, our results highlight the importance of a good reputation in protecting a firm against severe negative judgments from making an economic decision that the public deems unfair.

econ.GN

Assessing the impact of the coronavirus lockdown on unhappiness, loneliness, and boredom using Google Trends

The COVID-19 pandemic has led many governments to implement lockdowns. While lockdowns may help to contain the spread of the virus, it is possible that substantial damage to population well-being will result. This study relies on Google Trends data and tests whether the lockdowns implemented in Europe and America led to changes in well-being related topic search terms. Using different methods to evaluate the causal effects of lockdown, we find a substantial increase in the search intensity for boredom in Europe and the US. We also found a significant increase in searches for loneliness, worry and sadness, while searches for stress, suicide and divorce on the contrary fell. Our results suggest that people's mental health may have been severely affected by the lockdown.

physics.soc-ph