arXiv subjects

Nedjeljka Žagar

Publications and source records attributed to Nedjeljka Žagar.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Interpretable Neural Networks to Predict Momentum Fluxes of Orographic Gravity Waves

State-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) cannot explicitly resolve many small-scale atmospheric processes such as atmospheric gravity waves, and thus must represent, or parameterise, their effects on the resolved state. Machine learning (ML) has the potential to improve these parameterisations. In our study, we train neural networks (NNs) on ERA5 reanalysis data to predict momentum fluxes of orographic gravity waves as a function of the state variables at the resolution of a coarse ESM. Employing a full year of data, we extract inertia-gravity waves using the software MODES, which applies linear theory for wave filtering, and train ML models on data coarse-grained to the ESM's target resolution. We consider four different cases: the full spectrum of inertia-gravity waves resolved in ERA5, or just the part of the spectrum that is subgrid-scale in the target ESM, both over all land or just over mountainous terrain. Our NNs successfully predict momentum fluxes, with a global coefficient of determination ($R^2$) ranging from 0.72 to 0.56, depending on the case, when evaluated offline with data from another year. An analysis of our models using SHAP values, an explainable AI technique, suggests that the networks learned physically meaningful relationships. In addition, we give a comparison with the physics-based parameterisation scheme by Lott and Miller. This work forms the basis for the development of operational ML-based parameterisations to improve the representation of gravity waves and their effects in climate models.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Hamiltonian Lorenz-like models

The reduced-complexity models developed by Edward Lorenz are widely used in atmospheric and climate sciences to study nonlinear aspect of dynamics and to demonstrate new methods for numerical weather prediction. A set of inviscid Lorenz models describing the dynamics of a single variable in a zonally-periodic domain, without dissipation and forcing, conserve energy but are not Hamiltonian. In this paper, we start from a general continuous parent fluid model, from which we derive a family of Hamiltonian Lorenz-like models through a symplectic discretization of the associated Poisson bracket that preserves the Jacobi identity. A symplectic-split integrator is also formulated. These Hamiltonian models conserve energy and maintain the nearest-neighbor couplings inherent in the original Lorenz model. As a corollary, we find that the Lorenz-96 model can be seen as a result of a poor discretization of a Poisson bracket. Hamiltonian Lorenz-like models offer promising alternatives to the original Lorenz models, especially for the qualitative representation of non-Gaussian weather extremes and wave interactions, which are key factors in understanding many phenomena of the climate system.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Resonant excitation of Kelvin waves by interactions of subtropical Rossby waves and the zonal mean flow

Equatorial Kelvin waves can be affected by subtropical Rossby wave dynamics. Previous research has demonstrated the Kelvin wave growth in response to subtropical forcing and the resonant growth due to eddy momentum flux convergence. However, the relative importance of the wave-mean flow and wave-wave interactions for the Kelvin wave growth compared to the direct wave excitation by the external forcing has not been made clear. This study demonstrates the resonant Kelvin wave excitation by interactions of subtropical Rossby waves and the mean flow using a spherical shallow-water model. The use of Hough harmonics as basis functions makes Rossby and Kelvin waves prognostic variables of the model and allows the quantification of terms contributing to their tendencies in physical and wave space. The simulations show that Kelvin waves are resonantly excited by interactions of Rossby waves and the balanced zonal mean flow in the subtropics, provided the Rossby and Kelvin wave frequencies, which are modified by the mean flow, match. The resonance mechanism is substantiated by analytical expressions. The Kelvin wave tendencies are caused by velocity and depth tendencies: The velocity tendencies due to the meridional advection of zonal mean velocity can be outweighed by the zonal advection of Rossby wave velocity or by the depth tendencies due to Rossby wave divergence. Identifying the resonant excitation mechanism in data should contribute to the quantification of Kelvin wave variability originating in the subtropics.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2023

Excitation of mixed Rossby-gravity waves by wave-mean flow interactions on the sphere

The equatorial mixed Rossby-gravity wave (MRGW) is an important contributor to tropical variability. Its excitation mechanism capable of explaining the observed MRGW variance peak at synoptic scales remains elusive. This study investigates wave-mean flow interactions as a generation process for the MRGWs using the barotropic version of the global Transient Inertia-Gravity And Rossby wave dynamics model (TIGAR), which employs Hough harmonics as the basis of spectral expansion, thereby representing MRGWs as prognostic variables. High accuracy numerical simulations manifest that interactions between waves emanating from a tropical heat source and zonal mean jets in the subtropics generate MRGWs with the variance spectra resembling the one observed in the tropical troposphere. Quantification of spectral tendencies associated with the MRGW energy growth underscores the significance of wave-mean flow interactions in comparison to excitation mechanisms driven by external forcing and wave-wave interactions. The MRGW growth and amplitude depend on the asymmetry in the zonal mean flow that may explain not only seasonal variability but also differences between the troposphere and the middle atmosphere.

physics.ao-ph↗