arXiv subjects

Negin Ashrafi

Publications and source records attributed to Negin Ashrafi.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Auditing Construct Overlap in Explainable Machine Learning: Evidence from Burnout-Depression Prediction Across Student Cohorts

Explainable machine learning (XML) pipelines applied to composite mental health outcomes can produce apparently-robust, cross-population-stable risk hierarchies that are largely artefacts of how the outcome was constructed. We demonstrate this using an ElasticNet pipeline applied to 886 medical students at the University of Lausanne (primary cohort, 2022), validated across 2,580 longitudinal observations at three time points and 701 non-medical students from eight faculties; all three datasets share identical instruments. The pipeline produces a hierarchy in which trait anxiety and health satisfaction dominate wherever the outcome is measured, with Kendall $\tau = 1.0$ for the top-two positions across all five evaluation sets and consistent transfer performance ($R^2$: 0.41-0.49). Two residualization experiments, which isolate shared variance between correlated variables via regression, reveal the mechanism: when trait anxiety (STAI-T) is residualized against the co-included depression subscale (CES-D, $r = 0.72$), model $R^2$ drops from 0.41 to 0.16 and STAI-T falls from rank 1 to rank 6; when burnout subscales are residualized against CES-D, $R^2$ collapses to 0.016. Prediction intervals average 35.4 units on a 0-100 scale (2.4 outcome standard deviations), independently ruling out individual-level deployment. The residualization protocol is the paper's transferable contribution: any XAI study combining correlated predictor and outcome constructs should apply this check before interpreting apparent stability as a finding.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

TimingLLM: A Two-Stage Retrieval-Augmented Framework for Pre-Synthesis Timing Prediction from Verilog

Early, tool-free prediction of post-synthesis timing remains a key obstacle to rapid RTL iteration. We introduce TimingLLM, a two-stage retrieval-augmented LLM pipeline that estimates worst negative slack (WNS) and total negative slack (TNS) directly from Verilog. Stage 1 is a fine-tuned LLM that acts as a compact post-synthesis timing oracle, producing path-level arrivals/required times that are summarized into lightweight structural-timing cues (e.g., bag-of-gates counts, critical-path depth, gate-type patterns). Stage 2 is an LLM-based regressor that predicts WNS/TNS and applies a learned diagonal steering vector at the last transformer block, computed from the k nearest timing-labeled modules in a disjoint retrieval bank. On VerilogEval, TimingLLM attains R_WNS = 0.91 (MAPE 12%) and R_TNS=0.97 (MAPE 16%) while running 1.3-1.6 times faster than prior methods. Training uses a new 60k-module Verilog corpus with synthesis reports, which we will release. After training once, TimingLLM can be adapted to new technology libraries and PVT corners by refitting only a small regression head on 1000 labeled modules per setting, consistently outperforming state-of-the-art baselines.

cs.AR↗

arXiv2026

HDLFORGE: A Two-Stage Multi-Agent Framework for Efficient Verilog Code Generation with Adaptive Model Escalation

We present HDLFORGE, a two-stage multi-agent framework for automated Verilog generation that optimizes the trade-off between generation speed and accuracy. The system uses a compact coder with a medium-sized LLM by default (Stage A) and escalates to a stronger coder with an ultra-large LLM (Stage B) only when needed, guided by a calibrated score from inexpensive diagnostics including compilation, lint, and smoke tests. A key innovation is a counterexample-guided formal agent that converts bounded-model-checking traces into reusable micro-tests, significantly reducing bug detection time and repair iterations. The portable escalation controller can wrap existing Verilog LLM pipelines without modifying their internals. Evaluated on VerilogEval Human, VerilogEval V2, and RTLLM benchmarks, HDLFORGE demonstrates improved accuracy-latency trade-offs compared to single-stage systems through comprehensive analysis of wall-clock time distributions, escalation thresholds, and agent ablations. On VerilogEval Human and VerilogEval V2, HDLFORGE-Qwen achieves 91.2% and 91.8% Pass@1 with roughly 50% lower median latency, dramatically improving accuracy over other medium-sized models, and 97.2% Pass@5 on RTLLM.

cs.AR↗

arXiv2025

Aligning Language Models with Clinical Expertise: DPO for Heart Failure Nursing Documentation in Critical Care

Nursing documentation in intensive care units (ICUs) provides essential clinical intelligence but often suffers from inconsistent terminology, informal styles, and lack of standardization, challenges that are particularly critical in heart failure care. This study applies Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to adapt Mistral-7B, a locally deployable language model, using 8,838 heart failure nursing notes from the MIMIC-III database and 21,210 preference pairs derived from expert-verified GPT outputs, model generations, and original notes. Evaluation across BLEU, ROUGE, BERTScore, Perplexity, and expert qualitative assessments demonstrates that DPO markedly enhances documentation quality. Specifically, BLEU increased by 84% (0.173 to 0.318), BERTScore improved by 7.6% (0.828 to 0.891), and expert ratings rose across accuracy (+14.4 points), completeness (+14.5 points), logical consistency (+14.1 points), readability (+11.1 points), and structural clarity (+6.0 points). These results indicate that DPO can align lightweight clinical language models with expert standards, supporting privacy-preserving, AI-assisted documentation within electronic health record systems to reduce administrative burden and improve ICU patient safety.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

LLM Encoder vs. Decoder: Robust Detection of Chinese AI-Generated Text with LoRA

The rapid growth of large language models (LLMs) has heightened the demand for accurate detection of AI-generated text, particularly in languages like Chinese, where subtle linguistic nuances pose significant challenges to current methods. In this study, we conduct a systematic comparison of encoder-based Transformers (Chinese BERT-large and RoBERTa-wwm-ext-large), a decoder-only LLM (Alibaba's Qwen2.5-7B/DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B fine-tuned via Low-Rank Adaptation, LoRA), and a FastText baseline using the publicly available dataset from the NLPCC 2025 Chinese AI-Generated Text Detection Task. Encoder models were fine-tuned using a novel prompt-based masked language modeling approach, while Qwen2.5-7B was adapted for classification with an instruction-format input and a lightweight classification head trained via LoRA. Experiments reveal that although encoder models nearly memorize training data, they suffer significant performance degradation under distribution shifts (RoBERTa: 76.3% test accuracy; BERT: 79.3%). FastText demonstrates surprising lexical robustness (83.5% accuracy) yet lacks deeper semantic understanding. In contrast, the LoRA-adapted Qwen2.5-7B achieves 95.94% test accuracy with balanced precision-recall metrics, indicating superior generalization and resilience to dataset-specific artifacts. These findings underscore the efficacy of decoder-based LLMs with parameter-efficient fine-tuning for robust Chinese AI-generated text detection. Future work will explore next-generation Qwen3 models, distilled variants, and ensemble strategies to enhance cross-domain robustness further.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

A Novel Multi-Task Teacher-Student Architecture with Self-Supervised Pretraining for 48-Hour Vasoactive-Inotropic Trend Analysis in Sepsis Mortality Prediction

Sepsis is a major cause of ICU mortality, where early recognition and effective interventions are essential for improving patient outcomes. However, the vasoactive-inotropic score (VIS) varies dynamically with a patient's hemodynamic status, complicated by irregular medication patterns, missing data, and confounders, making sepsis prediction challenging. To address this, we propose a novel Teacher-Student multitask framework with self-supervised VIS pretraining via a Masked Autoencoder (MAE). The teacher model performs mortality classification and severity-score regression, while the student distills robust time-series representations, enhancing adaptation to heterogeneous VIS data. Compared to LSTM-based methods, our approach achieves an AUROC of 0.82 on MIMIC-IV 3.0 (9,476 patients), outperforming the baseline (0.74). SHAP analysis revealed that SOFA score (0.147) had the greatest impact on ICU mortality, followed by LODS (0.033), single marital status (0.031), and Medicaid insurance (0.023), highlighting the role of sociodemographic factors. SAPSII (0.020) also contributed significantly. These findings suggest that both clinical and social factors should be considered in ICU decision-making. Our novel multitask and distillation strategies enable earlier identification of high-risk patients, improving prediction accuracy and disease management, offering new tools for ICU decision support.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Optimizing Urban Mobility Through Complex Network Analysis and Big Data from Smart Cards

This study investigates the network characteristics of high-frequency (HF) and low-frequency (LF) travelers in urban public transport systems by analyzing 20 million smart card records from Beijing's transit network. A novel methodology integrates advanced data preprocessing, clustering techniques, and complex network analysis to differentiate HF and LF passenger behaviors and their impacts on network structure, robustness, and efficiency. The primary challenge is accurately segmenting and modeling the behaviors of diverse passenger groups within a large-scale, noisy dataset while maintaining computational efficiency and scalability. HF networks, representing the top 25% of travelers by usage frequency, exhibit high connectivity with an average clustering coefficient of 0.72 and greater node degree centrality. However, they have lower robustness, with efficiency declining by 35% under targeted disruptions and longer average path lengths of 6.2 during peak hours. In contrast, LF networks, which include 75% of travelers, are more dispersed yet resilient, with efficiency declining by only 10% under similar disruptions and stronger intracommunity connectivity. Temporal analysis reveals that HF passengers significantly contribute to peak-hour congestion, with 57.4% of HF trips occurring between 6:00 and 10:00 AM, while LF passengers show a broader temporal distribution, helping to mitigate congestion hotspots. Understanding these travel patterns is crucial for optimizing public transit systems. The findings suggest targeted strategies such as enhancing robustness in HF networks by diversifying key routes and improving accessibility in LF-dominated areas. This research provides a scalable framework for analyzing smart card data and offers actionable insights for optimizing transit networks, improving congestion management, and advancing sustainable urban mobility planning.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of ICU Readmissions in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Patients: Insights from the MIMIC Databases

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a life-risking condition characterized by bleeding within the brain parenchyma. ICU readmission in ICH patients is a critical outcome, reflecting both clinical severity and resource utilization. Accurate prediction of ICU readmission risk is crucial for guiding clinical decision-making and optimizing healthcare resources. This study utilized the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV) databases, which contain comprehensive clinical and demographic data on ICU patients. Patients with ICH were identified from both databases. Various clinical, laboratory, and demographic features were extracted for analysis based on both overview literature and experts' opinions. Preprocessing methods like imputing and sampling were applied to improve the performance of our models. Machine learning techniques, such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), XGBoost, and Random Forest, were employed to develop predictive models for ICU readmission risk. Model performance was evaluated using metrics such as AUROC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The developed models demonstrated robust predictive accuracy for ICU readmission in ICH patients, with key predictors including demographic information, clinical parameters, and laboratory measurements. Our study provides a predictive framework for ICU readmission risk in ICH patients, which can aid in clinical decision-making and improve resource allocation in intensive care settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Optimizing Mortality Prediction for ICU Heart Failure Patients: Leveraging XGBoost and Advanced Machine Learning with the MIMIC-III Database

Heart failure affects millions of people worldwide, significantly reducing quality of life and leading to high mortality rates. Despite extensive research, the relationship between heart failure and mortality rates among ICU patients is not fully understood, indicating the need for more accurate prediction models. This study analyzed data from 1,177 patients over 18 years old from the MIMIC-III database, identified using ICD-9 codes. Preprocessing steps included handling missing data, removing duplicates, treating skewness, and using oversampling techniques to address data imbalances. Through rigorous feature selection using Variance Inflation Factor (VIF), expert clinical input, and ablation studies, 46 key features were identified to enhance model performance. Our analysis compared several machine learning models, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. XGBoost emerged as the superior model, achieving a test AUC-ROC of 0.9228 (95\% CI 0.8748 - 0.9613), significantly outperforming our previous work (AUC-ROC of 0.8766) and the best results reported in existing literature (AUC-ROC of 0.824). The improved model's success is attributed to advanced feature selection methods, robust preprocessing techniques, and comprehensive hyperparameter optimization through Grid-Search. SHAP analysis and feature importance evaluations based on XGBoost highlighted key variables like leucocyte count and RDW, providing valuable insights into the clinical factors influencing mortality risk. This framework offers significant support for clinicians, enabling them to identify high-risk ICU heart failure patients and improve patient outcomes through timely and informed interventions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Advanced Predictive Modeling for Enhanced Mortality Prediction in ICU Stroke Patients Using Clinical Data

Background: Stroke is second-leading cause of disability and death among adults. Approximately 17 million people suffer from a stroke annually, with about 85% being ischemic strokes. Predicting mortality of ischemic stroke patients in intensive care unit (ICU) is crucial for optimizing treatment strategies, allocating resources, and improving survival rates. Methods: We acquired data on ICU ischemic stroke patients from MIMIC-IV database, including diagnoses, vital signs, laboratory tests, medications, procedures, treatments, and clinical notes. Stroke patients were randomly divided into training (70%, n=2441), test (15%, n=523), and validation (15%, n=523) sets. To address data imbalances, we applied Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE). We selected 30 features for model development, significantly reducing feature number from 1095 used in the best study. We developed a deep learning model to assess mortality risk and implemented several baseline machine learning models for comparison. Results: XGB-DL model, combining XGBoost for feature selection and deep learning, effectively minimized false positives. Model's AUROC improved from 0.865 (95% CI: 0.821 - 0.905) on first day to 0.903 (95% CI: 0.868 - 0.936) by fourth day using data from 3,646 ICU mortality patients in the MIMIC-IV database with 0.945 AUROC (95% CI: 0.944 - 0.947) during training. Although other ML models also performed well in terms of AUROC, we chose Deep Learning for its higher specificity. Conclusions: Through enhanced feature selection and data cleaning, proposed model demonstrates a 13% AUROC improvement compared to existing models while reducing feature number from 1095 in previous studies to 30.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Data-Driven Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting In-Hospital Sepsis Mortality

Sepsis is a severe condition responsible for many deaths in the United States and worldwide, making accurate prediction of outcomes crucial for timely and effective treatment. Previous studies employing machine learning faced limitations in feature selection and model interpretability, reducing their clinical applicability. This research aimed to develop an interpretable and accurate machine learning model to predict in-hospital sepsis mortality, addressing these gaps. Using ICU patient records from the MIMIC-III database, we extracted relevant data through a combination of literature review, clinical input refinement, and Random Forest-based feature selection, identifying the top 35 features. Data preprocessing included cleaning, imputation, standardization, and applying the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) to address class imbalance, resulting in a dataset of 4,683 patients with 17,429 admissions. Five models-Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor-were developed and evaluated. The Random Forest model demonstrated the best performance, achieving an accuracy of 0.90, AUROC of 0.97, precision of 0.93, recall of 0.91, and F1-score of 0.92. These findings underscore the potential of data-driven machine learning approaches to improve critical care, offering clinicians a powerful tool for predicting in-hospital sepsis mortality and enhancing patient outcomes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Enhanced Prediction of Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia in Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury Using Advanced Machine Learning Techniques

Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients poses a significant mortality risk and imposes a considerable financial burden on patients and healthcare systems. Timely detection and prognostication of VAP in TBI patients are crucial to improve patient outcomes and alleviate the strain on healthcare resources. Methods: We implemented six machine learning models using the MIMIC-III database. Our methodology included preprocessing steps, such as feature selection with CatBoost and expert opinion, addressing class imbalance with the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), and rigorous model tuning through 5-fold cross-validation to optimize hyperparameters. Key models evaluated included SVM, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, ANN, and AdaBoost. Additionally, we conducted SHAP analysis to determine feature importance and performed an ablation study to assess feature impacts on model performance. Results: XGBoost outperformed the baseline models and the best existing literature. We used metrics, including AUC, Accuracy, Specificity, Sensitivity, F1 Score, PPV, and NPV. XGBoost demonstrated the highest performance with an AUC of 0.940 and an Accuracy of 0.875, which are 23.4% and 23.5% higher than the best results in the existing literature, with an AUC of 0.706 and an Accuracy of 0.640, respectively. This enhanced performance underscores the models' effectiveness in clinical settings. Conclusions: This study enhances the predictive modeling of VAP in TBI patients, improving early detection and intervention potential. Refined feature selection and advanced ensemble techniques significantly boosted model accuracy and reliability, offering promising directions for future clinical applications and medical diagnostics research.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Effect of a Process Mining based Pre-processing Step in Prediction of the Critical Health Outcomes

Predicting critical health outcomes such as patient mortality and hospital readmission is essential for improving survivability. However, healthcare datasets have many concurrences that create complexities, leading to poor predictions. Consequently, pre-processing the data is crucial to improve its quality. In this study, we use an existing pre-processing algorithm, concatenation, to improve data quality by decreasing the complexity of datasets. Sixteen healthcare datasets were extracted from two databases - MIMIC III and University of Illinois Hospital - converted to the event logs, they were then fed into the concatenation algorithm. The pre-processed event logs were then fed to the Split Miner (SM) algorithm to produce a process model. Process model quality was evaluated before and after concatenation using the following metrics: fitness, precision, F-Measure, and complexity. The pre-processed event logs were also used as inputs to the Decay Replay Mining (DREAM) algorithm to predict critical outcomes. We compared predicted results before and after applying the concatenation algorithm using Area Under the Curve (AUC) and Confidence Intervals (CI). Results indicated that the concatenation algorithm improved the quality of the process models and predictions of the critical health outcomes.

cs.LG↗