arXiv subjects

Neil Walton

Publications and source records attributed to Neil Walton.

28 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Adaptive Pricing in Insurance: Generalized Linear Models and Gaussian Process Regression Approaches

We study the application of dynamic pricing to insurance. We view this as an online revenue management problem where the insurance company looks to set prices to optimize the long-run revenue from selling a new insurance product. We develop two pricing models: an adaptive Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and an adaptive Gaussian Process (GP) regression model. Both balance between exploration, where we choose prices in order to learn the distribution of demands & claims for the insurance product, and exploitation, where we myopically choose the best price from the information gathered so far. The performance of the pricing policies is measured in terms of regret: the expected revenue loss caused by not using the optimal price. As is commonplace in insurance, we model demand and claims by GLMs. In our adaptive GLM design, we use the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation (MQLE) to estimate the unknown parameters. We show that, if prices are chosen with suitably decreasing variability, the MQLE parameters eventually exist and converge to the correct values, which in turn implies that the sequence of chosen prices will also converge to the optimal price. In the adaptive GP regression model, we sample demand and claims from Gaussian Processes and then choose selling prices by the upper confidence bound rule. We also analyze these GLM and GP pricing algorithms with delayed claims. Although similar results exist in other domains, this is among the first works to consider dynamic pricing problems in the field of insurance. We also believe this is the first work to consider Gaussian Process regression in the context of insurance pricing. These initial findings suggest that online machine learning algorithms could be a fruitful area of future investigation and application in insurance.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2018

Designing Coalition-Proof Reverse Auctions over Continuous Goods

This paper investigates reverse auctions that involve continuous values of different types of goods, general nonconvex constraints, and second stage costs. We seek to design the payment rules and conditions under which coalitions of participants cannot influence the auction outcome in order to obtain higher collective utility. Under the incentive-compatible Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanism, we show that coalition-proof outcomes are achieved if the submitted bids are convex and the constraint sets are of a polymatroid-type. These conditions, however, do not capture the complexity of the general class of reverse auctions under consideration. By relaxing the property of incentive-compatibility, we investigate further payment rules that are coalition-proof without any extra conditions on the submitted bids and the constraint sets. Since calculating the payments directly for these mechanisms is computationally difficult for auctions involving many participants, we present two computationally efficient methods. Our results are verified with several case studies based on electricity market data.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2018

Load Balancing in the Non-Degenerate Slowdown Regime

We analyse Join-the-Shortest-Queue in a contemporary scaling regime known as the Non-Degenerate Slowdown regime. Join-the-Shortest-Queue (JSQ) is a classical load balancing policy for queueing systems with multiple parallel servers. Parallel server queueing systems are regularly analysed and dimensioned by diffusion approximations achieved in the Halfin-Whitt scaling regime. However, when jobs must be dispatched to a server upon arrival, we advocate the Non-Degenerate Slowdown regime (NDS) to compare different load-balancing rules. In this paper we identify novel diffusion approximation and timescale separation that provides insights into the performance of JSQ. We calculate the price of irrevocably dispatching jobs to servers and prove this to within 15% (in the NDS regime) of the rules that may manoeuvre jobs between servers. We also compare ours results for the JSQ policy with the NDS approximations of many modern load balancing policies such as Idle-Queue-First and Power-of-$d$-choices policies which act as low information proxies for the JSQ policy. Our analysis leads us to construct new rules that have identical performance to JSQ but require less communication overhead than power-of-2-choices.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Exploring Vickrey-Clarke-Groves Mechanism for Electricity Markets

Control reserves are power generation or consumption entities that ensure balance of supply and demand of electricity in real-time. In many countries, they are operated through a market mechanism in which entities provide bids. The system operator determines the accepted bids based on an optimization algorithm. We develop the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanism for these electricity markets. We show that all advantages of the VCG mechanism including incentive compatibility of the equilibria and efficiency of the outcome can be guaranteed in these markets. Furthermore, we derive conditions to ensure collusion and shill bidding are not profitable. Our results are verified with numerical examples.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2016

Detecting Markov Chain Instability: A Monte Carlo Approach

We devise a Monte Carlo based method for detecting whether a non-negative Markov chain is stable for a given set of parameter values. More precisely, for a given subset of the parameter space, we develop an algorithm that is capable of deciding whether the set has a subset of positive Lebesgue measure for which the Markov chain is unstable. The approach is based on a variant of simulated annealing, and consequently only mild assumptions are needed to obtain performance guarantees. The theoretical underpinnings of our algorithm are based on a result stating that the stability of a set of parameters can be phrased in terms of the stability of a single Markov chain that searches the set for unstable parameters. Our framework leads to a procedure that is capable of performing statistically rigorous tests for instability, which has been extensively tested using several examples of standard and non-standard queueing networks.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Proportional switching in FIFO networks

We consider a family of discrete time multihop switched queueing networks where each packet moves along a fixed route. In this setting, BackPressure is the canonical choice of scheduling policy; this policy has the virtues of possessing a maximal stability region and not requiring explicit knowledge of traffic arrival rates. BackPressure has certain structural weaknesses because implementation requires information about each route, and queueing delays can grow super-linearly with route length. For large networks, where packets over many routes are processed by a queue, or where packets over a route are processed by many queues, these limitations can be prohibitive. In this article, we introduce a scheduling policy for FIFO networks, the Proportional Scheduler, which is based on the proportional fairness criterion. We show that, like BackPressure, the Proportional Scheduler has a maximal stability region and does not require explicit knowledge of traffic arrival rates. The Proportional Scheduler has the advantage that information about the network's route structure is not required for scheduling, which substantially improves the policy's performance for large networks. For instance, packets can be routed with only next-hop information and new nodes can be added to the network with only knowledge of the scheduling constraints.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Efficient Advert Assignment

We develop a framework for the analysis of large-scale Ad-auctions where adverts are assigned over a continuum of search types. For this pay-per-click market, we provide an efficient mechanism that maximizes social welfare. In particular, we show that the social welfare optimization can be solved in separate optimizations conducted on the time-scales relevant to the search platform and advertisers. Here, on each search occurrence, the platform solves an assignment problem and, on a slower time-scale, each advertiser submits a bid which matches its demand for click-throughs with supply. Importantly, knowledge of global parameters, such as the distribution of search terms, is not required when separating the problem in this way. Exploiting the information asymmetry between the platform and advertiser, we describe a simple mechanism which incentivizes truthful bidding and has a unique Nash equilibrium that is socially optimal, and thus implements our decomposition. Further, we consider models where advertisers adapt their bids smoothly over time, and prove convergence to the solution that maximizes social welfare. Finally, we describe several extensions which illustrate the flexibility and tractability of our framework.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2014

Decentralized Signal Control for Urban Road Networks

We propose in this paper a decentralized traffic signal control policy for urban road networks. Our policy is an adaptation of a so-called BackPressure scheme which has been widely recognized in data network as an optimal throughput control policy. We have formally proved that our proposed BackPressure scheme, with fixed cycle time and cyclic phases, stabilizes the network for any feasible traffic demands. Simulation has been conducted to compare our BackPressure policy against other existing distributed control policies in various traffic and network scenarios. Numerical results suggest that the proposed policy can surpass other policies both in terms of network throughput and congestion.

math.OC↗

arXiv2014

Closed queueing networks under congestion: non-bottleneck independence and bottleneck convergence

We analyze the behavior of closed product-form queueing networks when the number of customers grows to infinity and remains proportionate on each route (or class). First, we focus on the stationary behavior and prove the conjecture that the stationary distribution at non-bottleneck queues converges weakly to the stationary distribution of an ergodic, open product-form queueing network. This open network is obtained by replacing bottleneck queues with per-route Poissonian sources whose rates are determined by the solution of a strictly concave optimization problem. Then, we focus on the transient behavior of the network and use fluid limits to prove that the amount of fluid, or customers, on each route eventually concentrates on the bottleneck queues only, and that the long-term proportions of fluid in each route and in each queue solve the dual of the concave optimization problem that determines the throughputs of the previous open network.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Concave Switching in Single and Multihop Networks

Switched queueing networks model wireless networks, input queued switches and numerous other networked communications systems. For single-hop networks, we consider a {($α,g$)-switch policy} which combines the MaxWeight policies with bandwidth sharing networks -- a further well studied model of Internet congestion. We prove the maximum stability property for this class of randomized policies. Thus these policies have the same first order behavior as the MaxWeight policies. However, for multihop networks some of these generalized polices address a number of critical weakness of the MaxWeight/BackPressure policies. For multihop networks with fixed routing, we consider the Proportional Scheduler (or (1,log)-policy). In this setting, the BackPressure policy is maximum stable, but must maintain a queue for every route-destination, which typically grows rapidly with a network's size. However, this proportionally fair policy only needs to maintain a queue for each outgoing link, which is typically bounded in number. As is common with Internet routing, by maintaining per-link queueing each node only needs to know the next hop for each packet and not its entire route. Further, in contrast to BackPressure, the Proportional Scheduler does not compare downstream queue lengths to determine weights, only local link information is required. This leads to greater potential for decomposed implementations of the policy. Through a reduction argument and an entropy argument, we demonstrate that, whilst maintaining substantially less queueing overhead, the Proportional Scheduler achieves maximum throughput stability.

eess.SY↗