arXiv subjects

Niccolò Michelotti

Publications and source records attributed to Niccolò Michelotti.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Analytical Confidence Boundaries for Non-Gaussian Uncertainty in Perturbed Spacecraft Dynamics

This work investigates nonlinear uncertainty propagation in perturbed astrodynamics, focusing on the rapid characterization of non-Gaussian distributions and the construction of three-dimensional "banana-shaped" confidence boundaries. To bridge the gap between computationally intensive high-fidelity methods and inaccurate linear approximations, this paper introduces a fully analytical, sample-free framework for higher-order moments extraction. Leveraging Differential Algebra to bypass repeated numerical integration, statistical moments are extracted analytically via Isserlis' theorem and a monomial-to-Hermite basis transformation. A pair-product projection strategy is exploited to overcome the severe computational bottleneck of full fourth-order tensor contractions and compute only relevant terms via efficient polynomial algebra. The extracted skewness and kurtosis components directly parameterize non-elliptical confidence geometries that capture spatial bending and out-of-plane coupling of typical non-Gaussian distributions in astrodynamics. The approach is validated in high-fidelity environments including a cislunar Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit and close-proximity trajectories around Apophis during Earth's flyby, where the analytical approach achieves geometric accuracy comparable to expensive Monte Carlo simulations while reducing computational runtime by orders of magnitude.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Control and Neural Porkchop Analysis for Low-Thrust Asteroid Rendezvous Mission

This paper presents a comparative study of the applicability and accuracy of optimal control methods and neural network-based estimators in the context of porkchop plots for preliminary asteroid rendezvous mission design. The scenario considered involves a deep-space CubeSat equipped with a low-thrust engine, departing from Earth and rendezvousing with a near-Earth asteroid within a three-year launch window. A low-thrust trajectory optimization model is formulated, incorporating variable specific impulse, maximum thrust, and path constraints. The optimal control problem is efficiently solved using Sequential Convex Programming (SCP) combined with a solution continuation strategy. The neural network framework consists of two models: one predicts the minimum fuel consumption ($Δv$), while the other estimates the minimum flight time ($Δt$) which is used to assess transfer feasibility. Case results demonstrate that, in simplified scenarios without path constraints, the neural network approach achieves low relative errors across most of the design space and successfully captures the main structural features of the porkchop plots. In cases where the SCP-based continuation method fails due to the presence of multiple local optima, the neural network still provides smooth and globally consistent predictions, significantly improving the efficiency of early-stage asteroid candidate screening. However, the deformation of the feasible region caused by path constraints leads to noticeable discrepancies in certain boundary regions, thereby limiting the applicability of the network in detailed mission design phases. Overall, the integration of neural networks with porkchop plot analysis offers an effective decision-making tool for mission designers and planetary scientists, with significant potential for engineering applications.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Comparison of uncertainty propagation techniques in small-body environment

Close-proximity exploration of small celestial bodies is crucial for the comprehensive and accurate characterization of their properties. However, the complex and uncertain dynamical environment around them contributes to a rapid dispersion of uncertainty and the emergence of non-Gaussian distributions. Therefore, to ensure safe operations, a precise understanding of uncertainty propagation becomes imperative. In this work, the dynamical environment is analyzed around two asteroids, Apophis, which will perform a close flyby to Earth in 2029, and Eros, which has been already explored by past missions. The performance of different uncertainty propagation methods (Linear Covariance Propagation, Unscented Transformation, and Polynomial Chaos Expansion) are compared in various scenarios of close-proximity operations around the two asteroids. Findings are discussed in terms of propagation accuracy and computational efficiency depending on the dynamical environment. By exploring these methodologies, this work contributes to the broader goal of ensuring the safety and effectiveness of spacecraft operations during close-proximity exploration of small celestial bodies.

astro-ph.EP↗