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Nicholas Adams

Publications and source records attributed to Nicholas Adams.

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Operation of a negative ion gas time projection chamber without electronegative fill gases

The high fidelity reconstruction of particle tracks in micropatterned gaseous time projection chambers renders this technology ideal for future rare-event searches, including direction-sensitive dark matter experiments. Large drift distances are typically required for such experiments, so that the overall spatial resolution is limited by diffusion. Negative ion drift exhibits lower diffusion than electron drift and is thus an attractive option for realising a large-scale detector. The use of electronegative gases to create negative ions introduces technical challenges, most notably a reduction in gain when compared to conventional gas mixtures. In this study, we demonstrate a new method for negative ion generation via dissociative electron attachment using the conventional molecular fill gas CF$_4$. Our optical measurements of negative ion drift indicate electron attachment lengths of $<$1 mm and comparable gain to electron avalanches. The individual negative ion avalanches were also time-resolved, allowing the number of ions reaching the readout to be counted. We measure an improved energy resolution by single ion counting, relative to an integrated electron avalanche signal measured under identical gain conditions.

physics.ins-det

A likelihoodist trial procedure

A simple and common type of medical research involves the comparison of one treatment against another. The logical aim should be both to establish which treatment is superior and the strength of evidence supporting this conclusion, a task for which null hypothesis significance testing is particularly ill-suited. This paper describes and evaluates a novel sequential inferential procedure based on the likelihood evidential paradigm with the likelihood ratio as its salient statistic. The real-world performance of the procedure as applied to the distribution of treatment effects seen in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews is simulated. The misleading evidence rate was 5% and mostly this evidence was only weakly misleading. Early stopping occurred frequently and was associated with misleading evidence in only 0.4% of cases.

stat.ME

Resurrecting the One-Sided P-value as a Likelihood Ratio

The one-sided P-value has a long history stretching at least as far back as Laplace (1812) but has in recent times been mostly supplanted by the two-sided P-value. We present justification for a bijective relationship between the one-sided P-value and a likelihood ratio based on maximum likelihood, a relationship that cannot be demonstrated for the two-sided P-value. A number of criticisms of P-values are discussed and it is shown that many of these criticisms are not justified when a likelihood ratio interpretation of a one-sided P-value is employed. Converting a one-sided P-value to a likelihood ratio provides the advantages of the likelihood evidential paradigm.

stat.ME

A Likelihood-based Alternative to Null Hypothesis Significance Testing

The logical and practical difficulties associated with research interpretation using P values and null hypothesis significance testing have been extensively documented. This paper describes an alternative, likelihood-based approach to P-value interpretation. The P-value and sample size of a research study are used to derive a likelihood function with a single parameter, the estimated population effect size, and the method of maximum likelihood estimation is used to calculate the most likely effect size. Comparison of the likelihood of the most likely effect size and the likelihood of the minimum clinically significant effect size using the likelihood ratio test yields the clinical significance support level (or S-value), a logical and easily understood metric of research evidence. This clinical significance likelihood approach has distinct advantages over null hypothesis significance testing. As motivating examples we demonstrate the calculation and interpretation of S-values applied to two recent widely publicised trials, WOMAN from the Lancet and RELIEF from the New England Journal of Medicine.

stat.ME