arXiv subjects

Nicholas Andrews

Publications and source records attributed to Nicholas Andrews.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Multimodal Language Models with Modality-Specific Experts for Financial Forecasting from Interleaved Sequences of Text and Time Series

Text and time series data offer complementary views of financial markets: news articles provide narrative context about company events, while stock prices reflect how markets react to those events. However, despite their complementary nature, effectively integrating these interleaved modalities for improved forecasting remains challenging. In this work, we propose a unified neural architecture that models these interleaved sequences using modality-specific experts, allowing the model to learn unique time series patterns, while still enabling joint reasoning across modalities and preserving pretrained language understanding capabilities. To further improve multimodal understanding, we introduce a cross-modal alignment framework with a salient token weighting mechanism that learns to align representations across modalities with a focus on the most informative tokens. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a large-scale financial forecasting task, achieving state-of-the-art performance across a wide variety of strong unimodal and multimodal baselines. We develop an interpretability method that reveals insights into the value of time series-context and reinforces the design of our cross-modal alignment objective. Finally, we demonstrate that these improvements translate to meaningful economic gains in investment simulations.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

Feedback Friction: LLMs Struggle to Fully Incorporate External Feedback

Recent studies have shown LLMs possess some ability to improve their responses when given external feedback. However, it remains unclear how effectively and thoroughly these models can incorporate extrinsic feedback. In an ideal scenario, if LLMs receive near-perfect and complete feedback, we would expect them to fully integrate the feedback and reach correct solutions. In this paper, we systematically investigate LLMs' ability to incorporate feedback by designing a controlled experimental environment. For each problem, a solver model attempts a solution, then a feedback generator with access to near-complete ground-truth answers produces targeted feedback, after which the solver tries again. We evaluate this pipeline across a diverse range of tasks, including math reasoning, knowledge reasoning, scientific reasoning, and general multi-domain evaluations with state-of-the-art language models including Claude 3.7 with extended thinking. Surprisingly, even under these near-ideal conditions, solver models consistently show resistance to feedback, a limitation that we term Feedback Friction. To mitigate this limitation, we experiment with sampling-based strategies like progressive temperature increases and explicit rejection of previously attempted incorrect answers, which yield improvements but still fail to help models achieve target performance. We analyze Feedback Friction and find that models' confidence on specific questions, measured by semantic entropy, predicts feedback resistance: high-confidence predictions remain resistant to external correction. We hope that highlighting this issue in LLMs will help future research in self-improvement.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Context-Aware Language Models for Forecasting Market Impact from Sequences of Financial News

Financial news plays a critical role in the information diffusion process in financial markets and is a known driver of stock prices. However, the information in each news article is not necessarily self-contained, often requiring a broader understanding of the historical news coverage for accurate interpretation. Further, identifying and incorporating the most relevant contextual information presents significant challenges. In this work, we explore the value of historical context in the ability of large language models to understand the market impact of financial news. We find that historical context provides a consistent and significant improvement in performance across methods and time horizons. To this end, we propose an efficient and effective contextualization method that uses a large LM to process the main article, while a small LM encodes the historical context into concise summary embeddings that are then aligned with the large model's representation space. We explore the behavior of the model through multiple qualitative and quantitative interpretability tests and reveal insights into the value of contextualization. Finally, we demonstrate that the value of historical context in model predictions has real-world applications, translating to substantial improvements in simulated investment performance.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

GenVC: Self-Supervised Zero-Shot Voice Conversion

Most current zero-shot voice conversion methods rely on externally supervised components, particularly speaker encoders, for training. To explore alternatives that eliminate this dependency, this paper introduces GenVC, a novel framework that disentangles speaker identity and linguistic content from speech signals in a self-supervised manner. GenVC leverages speech tokenizers and an autoregressive, Transformer-based language model as its backbone for speech generation. This design supports large-scale training while enhancing both source speaker privacy protection and target speaker cloning fidelity. Experimental results demonstrate that GenVC achieves notably higher speaker similarity, with naturalness on par with leading zero-shot approaches. Moreover, due to its autoregressive formulation, GenVC introduces flexibility in temporal alignment, reducing the preservation of source prosody and speaker-specific traits, and making it highly effective for voice anonymization.

eess.AS↗

arXiv2025

Rapidly Adapting to New Voice Spoofing: Few-Shot Detection of Synthesized Speech Under Distribution Shifts

We address the challenge of detecting synthesized speech under distribution shifts -- arising from unseen synthesis methods, speakers, languages, or audio conditions -- relative to the training data. Few-shot learning methods are a promising way to tackle distribution shifts by rapidly adapting on the basis of a few in-distribution samples. We propose a self-attentive prototypical network to enable more robust few-shot adaptation. To evaluate our approach, we systematically compare the performance of traditional zero-shot detectors and the proposed few-shot detectors, carefully controlling training conditions to introduce distribution shifts at evaluation time. In conditions where distribution shifts hamper the zero-shot performance, our proposed few-shot adaptation technique can quickly adapt using as few as 10 in-distribution samples -- achieving upto 32% relative EER reduction on deepfakes in Japanese language and 20% relative reduction on ASVspoof 2021 Deepfake dataset.

eess.AS↗

arXiv2025

Hell or High Water: Evaluating Agentic Recovery from External Failures

As language model agents are applied to real world problems of increasing complexity, they will be expected to formulate plans across large search spaces. If those plans fail for reasons beyond their control, how well do language agents search for alternative ways to achieve their goals? We devise a specialized agentic planning benchmark to study this question. Each planning problem is solved via combinations of function calls. The agent searches for relevant functions from a set of over four thousand possibilities, and observes environmental feedback in the form of function outputs or error messages. Our benchmark confronts the agent with external failures in its workflow, such as functions that suddenly become unavailable. At the same time, even with the introduction of these failures, we guarantee that the task remains solvable. Ideally, an agent's performance on the planning task should not be affected by the presence of external failures. Overall, we find that language agents struggle to formulate and execute backup plans in response to environment feedback. While state-of-the-art models are often able to identify the correct function to use in the right context, they struggle to adapt to feedback from the environment and often fail to pursue alternate courses of action, even when the search space is artificially restricted. We provide a systematic analysis of the failures of both open-source and commercial models, examining the effects of search space size, as well as the benefits of scaling model size in our setting. Our analysis identifies key challenges for current generative models as well as promising directions for future work.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Scalable Controllable Accented TTS

We tackle the challenge of scaling accented TTS systems, expanding their capabilities to include much larger amounts of training data and a wider variety of accent labels, even for accents that are poorly represented or unlabeled in traditional TTS datasets. To achieve this, we employ two strategies: 1. Accent label discovery via a speech geolocation model, which automatically infers accent labels from raw speech data without relying solely on human annotation; 2. Timbre augmentation through kNN voice conversion to increase data diversity and model robustness. These strategies are validated on CommonVoice, where we fine-tune XTTS-v2 for accented TTS with accent labels discovered or enhanced using geolocation. We demonstrate that the resulting accented TTS model not only outperforms XTTS-v2 fine-tuned on self-reported accent labels in CommonVoice, but also existing accented TTS benchmarks.

eess.AS↗

arXiv2025

Learning Extrapolative Sequence Transformations from Markov Chains

Most successful applications of deep learning involve similar training and test conditions. However, tasks such as biological sequence design involve searching for sequences that improve desirable properties beyond previously known values, which requires novel hypotheses that \emph{extrapolate} beyond training data. In these settings, extrapolation may be achieved by using random search methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which, given an initial state, sample local transformations to approximate a target density that rewards states with the desired properties. However, even with a well-designed proposal, MCMC may struggle to explore large structured state spaces efficiently. Rather than relying on stochastic search, it would be desirable to have a model that greedily optimizes the properties of interest, successfully extrapolating in as few steps as possible. We propose to learn such a model from the Markov chains resulting from MCMC search. Specifically, our approach uses selected states from Markov chains as a source of training data for an autoregressive model, which is then able to efficiently generate novel sequences that extrapolate along the sequence-level properties of interest. The proposed approach is validated on three problems: protein sequence design, text sentiment control, and text anonymization. We find that the autoregressive model can extrapolate as well or better than MCMC, but with the additional benefits of scalability and significantly higher sample efficiency.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

ShiftySpeech: A Large-Scale Synthetic Speech Dataset with Distribution Shifts

The problem of synthetic speech detection has enjoyed considerable attention, with recent methods achieving low error rates across several established benchmarks. However, to what extent can low error rates on academic benchmarks translate to more realistic conditions? In practice, while the training set is fixed at one point in time, test-time conditions may exhibit distribution shifts relative to the training conditions, such as changes in speaker characteristics, emotional expressiveness, language and acoustic conditions, and the emergence of novel synthesis methods. Although some existing datasets target subsets of these distribution shifts, systematic analysis remains difficult due to inconsistencies between source data and synthesis systems across datasets. This difficulty is further exacerbated by the rapid development of new text-to-speech (TTS) and vocoder systems, which continually expand the diversity of synthetic speech. To enable systematic benchmarking of model performance under distribution shifts, we introduce ShiftySpeech, a large-scale benchmark comprising over 3,000 hours of synthetic speech across 7 source domains, 6 TTS systems, 12 vocoders, and 3 languages. ShiftySpeech is specifically designed to evaluate model generalization under controlled distribution shifts while ensuring broad coverage of modern synthetic speech generation techniques. It fills a key gap in current benchmarks by supporting fine-grained, controlled analysis of generalization robustness. All tested distribution shifts significantly degrade detection performance of state-of-the-art detection approaches based on self-supervised features. Overall, our findings suggest that reliance on synthetic speech detection methods in production environments should be carefully evaluated based on anticipated distribution shifts.

eess.AS↗

arXiv2025

Can Authorship Attribution Models Distinguish Speakers in Speech Transcripts?

Authorship verification is the task of determining if two distinct writing samples share the same author and is typically concerned with the attribution of written text. In this paper, we explore the attribution of transcribed speech, which poses novel challenges. The main challenge is that many stylistic features, such as punctuation and capitalization, are not informative in this setting. On the other hand, transcribed speech exhibits other patterns, such as filler words and backchannels (e.g., 'um', 'uh-huh'), which may be characteristic of different speakers. We propose a new benchmark for speaker attribution focused on human-transcribed conversational speech transcripts. To limit spurious associations of speakers with topic, we employ both conversation prompts and speakers participating in the same conversation to construct verification trials of varying difficulties. We establish the state of the art on this new benchmark by comparing a suite of neural and non-neural baselines, finding that although written text attribution models achieve surprisingly good performance in certain settings, they perform markedly worse as conversational topic is increasingly controlled. We present analyses of the impact of transcription style on performance as well as the ability of fine-tuning on speech transcripts to improve performance.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Mitigating Paraphrase Attacks on Machine-Text Detectors via Paraphrase Inversion

High-quality paraphrases are easy to produce using instruction-tuned language models or specialized paraphrasing models. Although this capability has a variety of benign applications, paraphrasing attacks$\unicode{x2013}$paraphrases applied to machine-generated texts$\unicode{x2013}$are known to significantly degrade the performance of machine-text detectors. This motivates us to consider the novel problem of paraphrase inversion, where, given paraphrased text, the objective is to recover an approximation of the original text. The closer the approximation is to the original text, the better machine-text detectors will perform. We propose an approach which frames the problem as translation from paraphrased text back to the original text, which requires examples of texts and corresponding paraphrases to train the inversion model. Fortunately, such training data can easily be generated, given a corpus of original texts and one or more paraphrasing models. We find that language models such as GPT-4 and Llama-3 exhibit biases when paraphrasing which an inversion model can learn with a modest amount of data. Perhaps surprisingly, we also find that such models generalize well, including to paraphrase models unseen at training time. Finally, we show that when combined with a paraphrased-text detector, our inversion models provide an effective defense against paraphrasing attacks, and overall our approach yields an average improvement of +22% AUROC across seven machine-text detectors and three different domains.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Can Optimization Trajectories Explain Multi-Task Transfer?

Despite the widespread adoption of multi-task training in deep learning, little is understood about how multi-task learning (MTL) affects generalization. Prior work has conjectured that the negative effects of MTL are due to optimization challenges that arise during training, and many optimization methods have been proposed to improve multi-task performance. However, recent work has shown that these methods fail to consistently improve multi-task generalization. In this work, we seek to improve our understanding of these failures by empirically studying how MTL impacts the optimization of tasks, and whether this impact can explain the effects of MTL on generalization. We show that MTL results in a generalization gap (a gap in generalization at comparable training loss) between single-task and multi-task trajectories early into training. However, we find that factors of the optimization trajectory previously proposed to explain generalization gaps in single-task settings cannot explain the generalization gaps between single-task and multi-task models. Moreover, we show that the amount of gradient conflict between tasks is correlated with negative effects to task optimization, but is not predictive of generalization. Our work sheds light on the underlying causes for failures in MTL and, importantly, raises questions about the role of general purpose multi-task optimization algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Low-Resource Authorship Style Transfer: Can Non-Famous Authors Be Imitated?

Authorship style transfer involves altering text to match the style of a target author whilst preserving the original meaning. Existing unsupervised approaches like STRAP have largely focused on style transfer to target authors with many examples of their writing style in books, speeches, or other published works. This high-resource training data requirement (often greater than 100,000 words) makes these approaches primarily useful for style transfer to published authors, politicians, or other well-known figures and authorship styles, while style transfer to non-famous authors has not been well-studied. We introduce the low-resource authorship style transfer task, a more challenging class of authorship style transfer where only a limited amount of text in the target author's style may exist. In our experiments, we specifically choose source and target authors from Reddit and style transfer their Reddit posts, limiting ourselves to just 16 posts (on average ~500 words) of the target author's style. Style transfer accuracy is typically measured by how often a classifier or human judge will classify an output as written by the target author. Recent authorship representations models excel at authorship identification even with just a few writing samples, making automatic evaluation of this task possible for the first time through evaluation metrics we propose. Our results establish an in-context learning technique we develop as the strongest baseline, though we find current approaches do not yet achieve mastery of this challenging task. We release our data and implementations to encourage further investigation.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

AnaloBench: Benchmarking the Identification of Abstract and Long-context Analogies

Humans regularly engage in analogical thinking, relating personal experiences to current situations (X is analogous to Y because of Z). Analogical thinking allows humans to solve problems in creative ways, grasp difficult concepts, and articulate ideas more effectively. Can language models (LMs) do the same? To answer this question, we propose AnaloBench, a benchmark to determine analogical reasoning ability in LMs. Our benchmarking approach focuses on aspects of this ability that are common among humans: (i) recalling related experiences from a large amount of information, and (ii) applying analogical reasoning to complex and lengthy scenarios. We test a broad collection of proprietary models (e.g., GPT family, Claude V2) and open source models such as LLaMA2. As in prior results, scaling up LMs results in some performance boosts. Surprisingly, scale offers minimal gains when, (i) analogies involve lengthy scenarios, or (ii) recalling relevant scenarios from a large pool of information, a process analogous to finding a needle in a haystack. We hope these observations encourage further research in this field.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

HLTCOE JHU Submission to the Voice Privacy Challenge 2024

We present a number of systems for the Voice Privacy Challenge, including voice conversion based systems such as the kNN-VC method and the WavLM voice Conversion method, and text-to-speech (TTS) based systems including Whisper-VITS. We found that while voice conversion systems better preserve emotional content, they struggle to conceal speaker identity in semi-white-box attack scenarios; conversely, TTS methods perform better at anonymization and worse at emotion preservation. Finally, we propose a random admixture system which seeks to balance out the strengths and weaknesses of the two category of systems, achieving a strong EER of over 40% while maintaining UAR at a respectable 47%.

eess.AS↗

arXiv2024

Privacy versus Emotion Preservation Trade-offs in Emotion-Preserving Speaker Anonymization

Advances in speech technology now allow unprecedented access to personally identifiable information through speech. To protect such information, the differential privacy field has explored ways to anonymize speech while preserving its utility, including linguistic and paralinguistic aspects. However, anonymizing speech while maintaining emotional state remains challenging. We explore this problem in the context of the VoicePrivacy 2024 challenge. Specifically, we developed various speaker anonymization pipelines and find that approaches either excel at anonymization or preserving emotion state, but not both simultaneously. Achieving both would require an in-domain emotion recognizer. Additionally, we found that it is feasible to train a semi-effective speaker verification system using only emotion representations, demonstrating the challenge of separating these two modalities.

eess.AS↗

arXiv2024

Few-Shot Detection of Machine-Generated Text using Style Representations

The advent of instruction-tuned language models that convincingly mimic human writing poses a significant risk of abuse. However, such abuse may be counteracted with the ability to detect whether a piece of text was composed by a language model rather than a human author. Some previous approaches to this problem have relied on supervised methods by training on corpora of confirmed human- and machine- written documents. Unfortunately, model under-specification poses an unavoidable challenge for neural network-based detectors, making them brittle in the face of data shifts, such as the release of newer language models producing still more fluent text than the models used to train the detectors. Other approaches require access to the models that may have generated a document in question, which is often impractical. In light of these challenges, we pursue a fundamentally different approach not relying on samples from language models of concern at training time. Instead, we propose to leverage representations of writing style estimated from human-authored text. Indeed, we find that features effective at distinguishing among human authors are also effective at distinguishing human from machine authors, including state-of-the-art large language models like Llama-2, ChatGPT, and GPT-4. Furthermore, given a handful of examples composed by each of several specific language models of interest, our approach affords the ability to predict which model generated a given document. The code and data to reproduce our experiments are available at https://github.com/LLNL/LUAR/tree/main/fewshot_iclr2024.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Learning to Generate Text in Arbitrary Writing Styles

Prior work in style-controlled text generation has focused on tasks such as emulating the style of prolific literary authors, producing formal or informal text, and mitigating toxicity of generated text. Plentiful demonstrations of these styles are available, and as a result modern language models are often able to emulate them, either via prompting or discriminative control. However, in applications such as writing assistants, it is desirable for language models to produce text in an author-specific style on the basis of a potentially small writing sample. For example, someone writing in a particular dialect may prefer writing suggestions that retain the same dialect. We find that instruction-tuned language models can struggle to reproduce author-specific style demonstrated in a prompt. Instead, we propose to guide a language model to generate text in a target style using contrastively-trained representations that capture stylometric features. Our approach (StyleMC) combines an author-adapted language model with sequence-level inference to improve stylistic consistency, and is found to be effective in a variety of conditions, including unconditional generation and style transfer. Additionally, we find that the proposed approach can serve as an effective anonymization method, by editing a document to mask authorship while preserving the original meaning

cs.CL↗