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Nicholas H. Tenev

Publications and source records attributed to Nicholas H. Tenev.

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Optimal Echo Chambers

When learning from others, people tend to focus their attention on those with similar views. This is often attributed to flawed reasoning, and thought to slow learning and polarize beliefs. However, we show that echo chambers are a rational response to uncertainty about the accuracy of information sources, and can improve learning and reduce disagreement. Furthermore, extending the range of views someone is exposed to can backfire, slowing their learning by making them less responsive to information from others. We model a Bayesian decision maker who chooses a set of information sources and then observes a signal from one. With uncertainty about which sources are accurate, focusing attention on signals close to one's own expectation can be beneficial, as their expected accuracy is higher. The optimal echo chamber balances the credibility of views similar to one's own against the usefulness of those further away.

econ.TH

Coordinated Shirking in Technology Adoption

This paper studies a model of technology adoption: a manager tries to induce a group of workers to exert costly effort to vet a new technology before they choose whether to use it. The manager finds it too costly to simultaneously replace large groups of unproductive workers, so they shirk when coordination is possible. Widely applicable technology expands productive possibilities but also provides an opportunity for coordinated shirking, and can thus lead to widespread production failure. Furthermore, even workers who learn that they are using flawed technology may continue to do so. Applications include mortgage securitization in the financial crisis of 2008, and the adoption of generative artificial intelligence.

econ.TH