arXiv subjects

Nicholas S. Conroy

Publications and source records attributed to Nicholas S. Conroy.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Dynamics and geometry of the inner sub-parsec-scale jet in 3C 279 observed with the Event Horizon Telescope

The 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations resolve the innermost jet region of the blazar 3C279 with unprecedented detail. The reconstructed images consistently reveal a compact core elongated nearly orthogonal to the large-scale jet axis. This rarely observed morphology recurs across multiple epochs and from 22-230 GHz and is therefore intrinsic rather than an imaging artifact. Geometric model fitting identifies several components with apparent speeds up to 10c, requiring bulk Lorentz factors greater than 10.3 and constraining viewing angles to extremely small values (smaller than one degree). Rest-frame brightness temperatures are systematically low (between 10^9 and 10^10 K), consistent with optically thin emission at 230 GHz. These results suggest that the jet bends toward the observer on sub-parsec scales, producing strong relativistic beaming. Possible drivers of the observed jet bending and temporal evolution include the jet's interaction with the interstellar medium, kink or Kelvin--Helmholtz instabilities, magnetic reconnection near the horizon, or binary-induced precession. However, the current temporal coverage of VLBI data remains insufficient to distinguish between these mechanisms. Continued multifrequency VLBI monitoring will be essential to constraining the dynamics and geometry of the jet base in 3C279.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Broadband multiwavelength properties of the archetypal blazar 3C 279 during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope campaign

The archetypal blazar 3C 279 hosts a prominent relativistic jet and exhibits strong broadband variability across the electromagnetic spectrum. In April 2017, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observed 3C 279, alongside one of the most extensive quasi-simultaneous multiwavelength (MWL) campaigns ever conducted. With the aim of investigating the physical processes governing 3C 279, we analyzed individual observations and multiband light curves, and constructed a new quasi-simultaneous MWL spectrum. We also performed phenomenological modeling using the turbulent extreme multi-zone (TEMZ) model to constrain the fundamental physical properties of the source. The EHT observations reveal a clear flux increase in the innermost core between April 5 and 11, 2017. Over a broader timescale, radio measurements at longer wavelengths show concurrent enhancements in core flux and polarization around mid-April, coinciding with the ejection of a superluminal knot. Record UV-optical flares with strong polarization variability occurred in late March, followed by gamma-ray activity that declined before the end of the EHT observing period. During this interval, the source remained in a low X-ray state and showed no detectable VHE emission. The TEMZ modeling suggests that the broadband spectrum and variability of 3C 279 can be explained within a jet scenario in which turbulent plasma cells are compressed by a stationary conical shock. However, alternative interpretations, such as magnetic reconnection or a moving shock-in-jet event, remain plausible. This coordinated MWL campaign advances our understanding of the origin of jet and gamma-ray emission in 3C 279, while also providing a comprehensive publicly available dataset that will serve as a valuable reference for future studies.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Ring Position Angles and Spin in M87* and Sgr A*

Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of black holes appear as rings with a brightness asymmetry. Here, we expand on our previous study of the asymmetry magnitude $a_1$ to study the position angle of the peak brightness asymmetry $\mathrm{PA}_1$ in general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models. For larger spin magnitudes ($a_{*}>0$ and $a_{*}\lesssim-0.5$), the mean $\mathrm{PA}_1$ falls within $1\sigma$ of the approaching limb of the black hole, regardless of viewing inclination, disk magnetization, or source. By comparing the $(a_1, \mathrm{PA}_1)$ distribution in M87* observations with models, we demonstrate that we can mildly disfavor low-magnitude spins and strongly disfavor all spin vectors that point toward Earth. The alignment of $\mathrm{PA}_1$ relative to the large-scale jet axis may suggest that M87*'s disk does not have a large tilt. By combining $\mathrm{PA}_1$ with the pattern speed measured in optimistic 2026 M87* video conditions, the EHT can constrain whether M87* is prograde or retrograde with $\sim 84\%$ accuracy. In Sgr A*, we show that a detection of $(a_1, \mathrm{PA}_1)$ could constrain the magnitude and direction of the galactic center spin vector. Finally, if future EHT expansions increase the sample of horizon-scale sources, a simple set of observables (ring diameter, asymmetry magnitude, and asymmetry angle) could enable robust constraints on black hole mass, spin, and inclination.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Full-polarization millimeter wavelength variability of Sagittarius A* during the 2018 EHT campaign

Sagittarius A* (Srg A*), the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, provides a unique laboratory to study accretion dynamics and plasma processes near the event horizon. We investigated the variability and polarization properties of Srg A* using ALMA observations during the 2018 Event Horizon Telescope campaign. We analyzed high-cadence full-polarization light curves from ALMA at millimeter wavelengths, performed time-series analysis, and investigated the temporal behavior during an X-ray flare observed by Chandra on 2018 April 24. The variability characteristics are compared with expectations from standard accretion flow models. We find low variability in total intensity ($\sigma/\mu < 10\%$), but significantly higher variability in linear and circular polarization (~ 30% and ~ 50%, respectively). A time-series analysis reveals red-noise variability, with power spectral densities between -2 and -3 across all Stokes parameters. Polarized intensity shows stable intra-day timescales, while total intensity exhibits more variable timescales, suggesting distinct emission regions, with polarization likely arising from a coherent structure. On April 24, a statistically significant inter-band delay in polarized intensity coincides with a near-simultaneous X-ray and millimeter peak that deviates from the typical delayed flare scenario. This event also features enhanced millimeter variability and coherent polarization loop evolution. The observed simultaneity challenges standard models of transient synchrotron emission with cooling delays, favoring instead a scenario of continuous energy injection in an optically thin region. Our results offer new constraints on the physical mechanisms driving variability in Srg A*, and provide key observational input for refining theoretical models of accretion and plasma behavior in the vicinity of supermassive black holes.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

BHCast: Unlocking Black Hole Plasma Dynamics from a Single Blurry Image with Long-Term Forecasting

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) delivered the first image of a black hole by capturing the light from its surrounding accretion flow, revealing structure but not dynamics. Simulations of black hole accretion dynamics are essential for interpreting EHT images but costly to generate and impractical for inference. Motivated by this bottleneck, BHCast presents a framework for forecasting black hole plasma dynamics from a single, blurry snapshot, such as those captured by the EHT. At its core, BHCast is a neural model that transforms a static image into forecasted future frames, revealing the underlying dynamics hidden within one snapshot. With a multi-scale pyramid loss, we demonstrate how autoregressive forecasting can simultaneously super-resolve and evolve a blurry frame into a coherent, high-resolution movie that remains stable over long time horizons. From forecasted dynamics, we can then extract interpretable spatio-temporal features, such as pattern speed (rotation rate) and pitch angle. Finally, BHCast uses gradient-boosting trees to recover black hole properties from these plasma features, including the spin and viewing inclination angle. The separation between forecasting and inference provides modular flexibility, interpretability, and robust uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of BHCast on simulations of two distinct black hole accretion systems, Sagittarius A* and M87*, by testing on simulated frames blurred to EHT resolution and real EHT images of M87*. Ultimately, our methodology establishes a scalable paradigm for solving inverse problems, demonstrating the potential of learned dynamics to unlock insights from resolution-limited scientific data.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Locating the missing large-scale emission in the jet of M87* with short EHT baselines

In Very-Long Baseline Interferometric arrays, nearly co-located stations probe the largest scales and typically cannot resolve the observed source. In the absence of large-scale structure, closure phases constructed with these stations are zero and, since they are independent of station-based errors, they can be used to probe data issues. Here, we show with an expansion about co-located stations, how these trivial closure phases become non-zero with brightness distribution on smaller scales than their short baseline would suggest. When applied to sources that are made up of a bright compact and large-scale diffuse component, the trivial closure phases directly measure the centroid relative to the compact source and higher-order image moments. We present a technique to measure these image moments with minimal model assumptions and validate it on synthetic Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) data. We then apply this technique to 2017 and 2018 EHT observations of M87* and find a weak preference for extended emission in the direction of the large-scale jet. We also apply it to 2021 EHT data and measure the source centroid about 1 mas northwest of the compact ring, consistent with the jet observed at lower frequencies.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Ring Asymmetry and Spin in M87*

Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of the supermassive black hole M87* depict an asymmetric ring of emission. General relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models of M87* and its accretion disk predict that the amplitude and location of the ring's peak brightness asymmetry should fluctuate due to turbulence in the source plasma. We compare the observed distribution of brightness asymmetry amplitudes to the simulated distribution in GRMHD models, across varying black hole spin $a_{*}$. We show that, for strongly magnetized (MAD) models, three epochs of EHT data marginally disfavor $|a_{*}| \lesssim 0.2$. This is consistent with the Blandford-Znajek model for M87's jet, which predicts that M87* should have nonzero spin. We show quantitatively how future observations could improve spin constraints, and discuss how improved spin constraints could distinguish between differing jet-launching mechanisms and black hole growth scenarios.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Probing jet base emission of M87* with the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations

We investigate the presence and spatial characteristics of the jet base emission in M87* at 230 GHz, enabled by the enhanced uv coverage in the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The addition of the 12-m Kitt Peak Telescope and NOEMA provides two key intermediate-length baselines to SMT and the IRAM 30-m, giving sensitivity to emission structures at scales of $\sim250~\mu$as and $\sim2500~\mu$as (0.02 pc and 0.2 pc). Without these baselines, earlier EHT observations lacked the capability to constrain emission on large scales, where a "missing flux" of order $\sim1$ Jy is expected. To probe these scales, we analyzed closure phases, robust against station-based gain errors, and modeled the jet base emission using a simple Gaussian offset from the compact ring emission at separations $>100~\mu$as. Our analysis reveals a Gaussian feature centered at ($\Delta$RA $\approx320~\mu$as, $\Delta$Dec $\approx60~\mu$as), a projected separation of $\approx5500$ AU, with a flux density of only $\sim60$ mJy, implying that most of the missing flux in previous studies must arise from larger scales. Brighter emission at these scales is ruled out, and the data do not favor more complex models. This component aligns with the inferred direction of the large-scale jet and is consistent with emission from the jet base. While our findings indicate detectable jet base emission at 230 GHz, coverage from only two intermediate baselines limits reconstruction of its morphology. We therefore treat the recovered Gaussian as an upper limit on the jet base flux density. Future EHT observations with expanded intermediate-baseline coverage will be essential to constrain the structure and nature of this component.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Event Horizon Telescope Pattern Speeds in the Visibility Domain

The Event Horizon Telescope is preparing to produce time sequences of black hole images, or movies. In anticipation, we developed an autocorrelation technique to measure apparent rotational motion using the image-domain pattern speed $Ω_p$. Here, we extend this technique to the visibility domain and introduce the visibility amplitude pattern speed $Ω_{\mathrm{VA}}$. We show that in the Illinois v3 library of EHT source models, $Ω_{\mathrm{VA}}$ depends on the source inclination, black hole mass, black hole spin, accretion state (MAD or SANE), and baseline length, and then provide approximate fits for this dependence. We show that $Ω_{\mathrm{VA}}$ is particularly sensitive to baseline length for MAD (strongly magnetized) models, and that the slope of this dependence can be used to constrain black hole spin. As with $Ω_p$, models predict that $Ω_{\mathrm{VA}}$ is well below the Keplerian frequency in the emission region for all model parameters. This is consistent with the idea that $Ω_{\mathrm{VA}}$ measures an angular phase speed for waves propagating through the emission region. Finally, we identify the information that would be provided by space-based millimeter VLBI such as the proposed BHEX mission.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Dynamical Inference from Polarized Light Curves of Sagittarius A*

Polarimetric light curves of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) sometimes exhibit loops in the Stokes $Q$ and $U$ plane over time, often interpreted as orbiting hotspot motion. In this work, we apply the differential geometry of planar curves to develop a new technique for estimating polarimetric rotation rates. Applying this technique to 230 GHz light curves of Sgr A*, we find evidence of clockwise motion not only during a post-flare period on 2017 April 11th, as previously discovered, but also during the quiescent days imaged by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). The data exhibit a clockwise fraction of $0.65 \pm 0.09$ and an overall $Q-U$ rotation rate of $-2.6 \pm 0.6 \ \mathrm{deg}\,t_g^{-1}$. We analyze a library of General Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations and find that face-on, clockwise-rotating models with strong magnetic fields are most likely to be consistent with the observations. These results are consistent with EHT and GRAVITY Collaboration studies, and indirectly support an interpretation in which the polarized image of Sgr A* has been rotated by an external Faraday screen. This technique offers a novel probe of event horizon scale dynamics that complements dynamical reconstructions.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Origin of the ring ellipticity in the black hole images of M87*

We investigate the origin of the elliptical ring structure observed in the images of the supermassive black hole M87*, aiming to disentangle contributions from gravitational, astrophysical, and imaging effects. Leveraging the enhanced capabilities of the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 2018 array, including improved $(u,v)$-coverage from the Greenland Telescope, we measure the ring's ellipticity using five independent imaging methods, obtaining a consistent average value of $τ= 0.08_{-0.02}^{+0.03}$ with a position angle $ξ= 50.1_{-7.6}^{+6.2}$ degrees. To interpret this measurement, we compare against General Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations spanning a wide range of physical parameters including thermal or non-thermal electron distribution function, spins, and ion-to-electron temperature ratios in both low and high-density regions. We find no statistically significant correlation between spin and ellipticity in GRMHD images. Instead, we identify a correlation between ellipticity and the fraction of non-ring emission, particularly in non-thermal models and models with higher jet emission. These results indicate that the ellipticity measured from the \m87 emission structure is consistent with that expected from simulations of turbulent accretion flows around black holes, where it is dominated by astrophysical effects rather than gravitational ones. Future high-resolution imaging, including space very long baseline interferometry and long-term monitoring, will be essential to isolate gravitational signatures from astrophysical effects.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The putative center in NGC 1052

Many active galaxies harbor powerful relativistic jets, however, the detailed mechanisms of their formation and acceleration remain poorly understood. To investigate the area of jet acceleration and collimation with the highest available angular resolution, we study the innermost region of the bipolar jet in the nearby low-ionization nuclear emission-line region (LINER) galaxy NGC 1052. We combined observations of NGC 1052 taken with VLBA, GMVA, and EHT over one week in the spring of 2017. For the first time, NGC 1052 was detected with the EHT, providing a size of the central region in-between both jet bases of 250 RS (Schwarzschild radii) perpendicular to the jet axes. This size estimate supports previous studies of the jets expansion profile which suggest two breaks of the profile at around 300 RS and 10000 RS distances to the core. Furthermore, we estimated the magnetic field to be 1.25 Gauss at a distance of 22 μas from the central engine by fitting a synchrotron-self absorption spectrum to the innermost emission feature, which shows a spectral turn-over at about 130 GHz. Assuming a purely poloidal magnetic field, this implies an upper limit on the magnetic field strength at the event horizon of 26000 Gauss, which is consistent with previous measurements. The complex, low-brightness, double-sided jet structure in NGC 1052 makes it a challenge to detect the source at millimeter (mm) wavelengths. However, our first EHT observations have demonstrated that detection is possible up to at least 230 GHz. This study offers a glimpse through the dense surrounding torus and into the innermost central region, where the jets are formed. This has enabled us to finally resolve this region and provide improved constraints on its expansion and magnetic field strength.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

A multi-frequency study of sub-parsec jets with the Event Horizon Telescope

The 2017 observing campaign of the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) delivered the first very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) images at the observing frequency of 230 GHz, leading to a number of unique studies on black holes and relativistic jets from active galactic nuclei (AGN). In total, eighteen sources were observed: the main science targets, Sgr A* and M87 along with various calibrators. We investigated the morphology of the sixteen AGN in the EHT 2017 data set, focusing on the properties of the VLBI cores: size, flux density, and brightness temperature. We studied their dependence on the observing frequency in order to compare it with the Blandford-Königl (BK) jet model. We modeled the source structure of seven AGN in the EHT 2017 data set using linearly polarized circular Gaussian components and collected results for the other nine AGN from dedicated EHT publications, complemented by lower frequency data in the 2-86 GHz range. Then, we studied the dependences of the VLBI core flux density, size, and brightness temperature on the frequency measured in the AGN host frame. We compared the observations with the BK jet model and estimated the magnetic field strength dependence on the distance from the central black hole. Our results indicate a deviation from the standard BK model, particularly in the decrease of the brightness temperature with the observing frequency. Either bulk acceleration of the jet material, energy transfer from the magnetic field to the particles, or both are required to explain the observations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

First Very Long Baseline Interferometry Detections at 870μm

The first very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) detections at 870$μ$m wavelength (345$\,$GHz frequency) are reported, achieving the highest diffraction-limited angular resolution yet obtained from the surface of the Earth, and the highest-frequency example of the VLBI technique to date. These include strong detections for multiple sources observed on inter-continental baselines between telescopes in Chile, Hawaii, and Spain, obtained during observations in October 2018. The longest-baseline detections approach 11$\,$G$λ$ corresponding to an angular resolution, or fringe spacing, of 19$μ$as. The Allan deviation of the visibility phase at 870$μ$m is comparable to that at 1.3$\,$mm on the relevant integration time scales between 2 and 100$\,$s. The detections confirm that the sensitivity and signal chain stability of stations in the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) array are suitable for VLBI observations at 870$μ$m. Operation at this short wavelength, combined with anticipated enhancements of the EHT, will lead to a unique high angular resolution instrument for black hole studies, capable of resolving the event horizons of supermassive black holes in both space and time.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

A search for pulsars around Sgr A* in the first Event Horizon Telescope dataset

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observed in 2017 the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), at a frequency of 228.1 GHz ($λ$=1.3 mm). The fundamental physics tests that even a single pulsar orbiting Sgr A* would enable motivate searching for pulsars in EHT datasets. The high observing frequency means that pulsars - which typically exhibit steep emission spectra - are expected to be very faint. However, it also negates pulse scattering, an effect that could hinder pulsar detections in the Galactic Center. Additionally, magnetars or a secondary inverse Compton emission could be stronger at millimeter wavelengths than at lower frequencies. We present a search for pulsars close to Sgr A* using the data from the three most-sensitive stations in the EHT 2017 campaign: the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array, the Large Millimeter Telescope and the IRAM 30 m Telescope. We apply three detection methods based on Fourier-domain analysis, the Fast-Folding-Algorithm and single pulse search targeting both pulsars and burst-like transient emission; using the simultaneity of the observations to confirm potential candidates. No new pulsars or significant bursts were found. Being the first pulsar search ever carried out at such high radio frequencies, we detail our analysis methods and give a detailed estimation of the sensitivity of the search. We conclude that the EHT 2017 observations are only sensitive to a small fraction ($\lesssim$2.2%) of the pulsars that may exist close to Sgr A*, motivating further searches for fainter pulsars in the region.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Rotation in Event Horizon Telescope Movies

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has produced images of M87* and Sagittarius A*, and will soon produce time sequences of images, or movies. In anticipation of this, we describe a technique to measure the rotation rate, or pattern speed $Ω_p$, from movies using an autocorrelation technique. We validate the technique on Gaussian random field models with a known rotation rate and apply it to a library of synthetic images of Sgr A* based on general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics simulations. We predict that EHT movies will have $Ω_p \approx 1^\circ$ per $GMc^{-3}$, which is of order $15\%$ of the Keplerian orbital frequency in the emitting region. We can plausibly attribute the slow rotation seen in our models to the pattern speed of inward-propagating spiral shocks. We also find that $Ω_p$ depends strongly on inclination. Application of this technique will enable us to compare future EHT movies with the clockwise rotation of Sgr A* seen in near-infrared flares by GRAVITY. Pattern speed analysis of future EHT observations of M87* and Sgr A* may also provide novel constraints on black hole inclination and spin, as well as an independent measurement of black hole mass.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Comparison of Polarized Radiative Transfer Codes used by the EHT Collaboration

Interpretation of resolved polarized images of black holes by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) requires predictions of the polarized emission observable by an Earth-based instrument for a particular model of the black hole accretion system. Such predictions are generated by general relativistic radiative transfer (GRRT) codes, which integrate the equations of polarized radiative transfer in curved spacetime. A selection of ray-tracing GRRT codes used within the EHT collaboration is evaluated for accuracy and consistency in producing a selection of test images, demonstrating that the various methods and implementations of radiative transfer calculations are highly consistent. When imaging an analytic accretion model, we find that all codes produce images similar within a pixel-wise normalized mean squared error (NMSE) of 0.012 in the worst case. When imaging a snapshot from a cell-based magnetohydrodynamic simulation, we find all test images to be similar within NMSEs of 0.02, 0.04, 0.04, and 0.12 in Stokes I, Q, U , and V respectively. We additionally find the values of several image metrics relevant to published EHT results to be in agreement to much better precision than measurement uncertainties.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

The Photon Ring in M87*

We report measurements of the gravitationally lensed secondary image -- the first in an infinite series of so-called "photon rings" -- around the supermassive black hole M87* via simultaneous modeling and imaging of the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The inferred ring size remains constant across the seven days of the 2017 EHT observing campaign and is consistent with theoretical expectations, providing clear evidence that such measurements probe spacetime and a striking confirmation of the models underlying the first set of EHT results. The residual diffuse emission evolves on timescales comparable to one week. We are able to detect with high significance a southwestern extension consistent with that expected from the base of a jet that is rapidly rotating in the clockwise direction. This result adds further support to the identification of the jet in M87* with a black hole spin-driven outflow, launched via the Blandford-Znajek process. We present three revised estimates for the mass of M87* based on identifying the modeled thin ring component with the bright ringlike features seen in simulated images, one of which is only weakly sensitive to the astrophysics of the emission region. All three estimates agree with each other and previously reported values. Our strongest mass constraint combines information from both the ring and the diffuse emission region, which together imply a mass-to-distance ratio of $4.20^{+0.12}_{-0.06}~μ{\rm as}$ and a corresponding black hole mass of $(7.13\pm0.39)\times10^9M_\odot$, where the error on the latter is now dominated by the systematic uncertainty arising from the uncertain distance to M87*.

astro-ph.HE↗