arXiv subjects

Nicholas Wogan

Publications and source records attributed to Nicholas Wogan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Photochemical CS$_2$ Gas Detected on a 20-Myr-old Exoplanet

Probing the atmospheres of young exoplanets offers a powerful window into how planetary systems evolve and the physical and chemical processes that drive those early evolutions. We present JWST/NIRSpec transmission spectroscopy of V1298 Tau e, a $\sim$20-Myr-old, $\sim$15-$M_\oplus$ planet with a Jupiter-like radius orbiting a young Sun-like star. We identified carbon disulfide (CS$_2$) in its atmosphere at $>$8$\sigma$ significance based on spectral features between 4.3 and 4.7~$\mu$m. Photochemical forward models show that the inferred CS$_2$ abundance is physically plausible in an H/He-dominated atmosphere exposed to intense ultraviolet irradiation. The atmosphere of V1298 Tau e is strikingly different from its nearest neighboring planet b, whose atmosphere shows SO$_2$ rather than CS$_2$. These observations demonstrate that even planets within the same system can occupy distinct photochemical regimes. Our results further provide empirical evidence for complex sulfur photochemistry in exoplanet atmospheres in general and may also point to divergent formation or evolutionary pathways within the same planetary system.

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arXiv2026

A Climate-Constrained Bayesian Inverse Method for JWST Rocky Exoplanet Eclipse Spectra: A Case Study of LTT 1445A b

Determining whether temperate rocky exoplanets orbiting M stars retain atmospheres is currently a central goal of exoplanet astronomy. To this end, the James Webb Space Telescope has begun searching for atmospheres on these worlds with MIRI secondary eclipse spectroscopy and photometry. Here, we develop a novel climate-constrained Bayesian inference framework that yields atmospheric pressure and composition constraints from these datasets, while accounting for planetary, stellar, and model uncertainties. Our approach fits observations with model spectra derived from self-consistent pressure-temperature profiles at radiative-convective equilibrium, thus maximizing the information extracted from the data and providing more robust inferences than retrievals that use parameterized pressure-temperature profiles. We demonstrate the framework on the existing MIRI LRS eclipse spectrum of LTT 1445A b (1.34 $R_\oplus$ and $T_{\mathrm{eq}} \approx 431$ K). An atmosphere does not need to be invoked to explain the data, meaning a bare rock model produces an adequate fit. If the planet has an atmosphere, the $2\sigma$ upper limits on surface partial pressures are $\lesssim 1$ bar for an optically thin gas like O$_2$, N$_2$ or CO, $\lesssim0.1$ bar for CO$_2$, $\lesssim 10^{-3}$ bar for H$_2$O, and $\lesssim 10^{-4}$ bar for SO$_2$. Scheduled MIRI F1500W observations could detect one of the thicker atmospheres permitted by the existing data (1 bar O$_2$ and 0.01 bar CO$_2$), if a precision of 20 ppm or better is achieved. This case study demonstrates that climate-constrained Bayesian inversion can turn rocky-planet eclipse spectra into the quantitative constraints necessary to test population-level atmospheric retention hypothesis, like the cosmic shoreline.

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arXiv2026

JWST COMPASS: A NIRSpec G395H Transmission Spectrum of Radius Valley-Dweller TOI-260 b

We present a JWST/NIRSpec G395H transmission spectrum of TOI-260 b, a $T_\mathrm{eq}\sim 490$ K, $R_\mathrm{p} = 1.76\,R_\oplus$ planet. The transmission spectrum is derived by combining two transit observations, collected as part of the JWST COMPASS program. We achieved the same median transit depth precision of 37 ppm in both visits, and a median precision of 26 ppm when combining the spectroscopic light curves from the two visits. Implementing a 30-pixel-wide ($R\sim 200$) spectroscopic binning scheme, we find that the transmission spectrum is mostly featureless, with a possible feature around 3.17 $\mu$m. We assess the significance of any features in the transmission spectrum with a suite of non-parametric models, which confirm the presence of a potential feature in the NRS1 bandpass and an offset between the NRS1 and NRS2 detectors. To investigate the atmospheric composition of TOI-260 b, we run a series of PLATON retrievals. We do not detect any clear molecular signatures, but the combined data from the two visits are sufficient to constrain the atmospheric metallicity to greater than $200\times$ solar, assuming no opaque deck $\lesssim2.5$ mbar. We also investigate causes of the potential feature near 3.17 $\mu$m; while we find some compatible gaseous species and cannot fully discard an astrophysical origin, we suspect a systematics origin due to the variance in strength and position of the feature. Overall, this look at TOI-260 b adds to the small sample of radius-valley planets, which already seem to show a diversity in their atmospheric compositions. Determining the true nature of these enigmatic planets will require a larger telescope time investment.

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arXiv2026

Life, Machine Learning, and the Search for Habitability: Predicting Biosignature Fluxes for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

Future direct-imaging flagship missions, such as NASA's Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), face critical decisions in prioritizing observations due to extremely stringent time and resource constraints. In this paper, we introduce two advanced machine-learning architectures tailored for predicting biosignature species fluxes from exoplanetary reflected-light spectra: a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network (BCNN) and our novel model architecture, the Spectral Query Adaptive Transformer (SQuAT). The BCNN robustly quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, offering reliable predictions under diverse observational conditions, whereas SQuAT employs query-driven attention mechanisms to enhance interpretability by explicitly associating spectral features with specific biosignature species. We demonstrate that both models achieve comparably high predictive accuracy on an augmented dataset spanning a wide range of exoplanetary conditions, while highlighting their distinct advantages in uncertainty quantification and spectral interpretability. These capabilities position our methods as promising tools for accelerating target triage, optimizing observation schedules, and maximizing scientific return for upcoming flagship missions such as HWO.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO): Living Worlds Community Working Group: The Search for Life on Potentially Habitable Exoplanets

The discovery of a biosphere on another planet would transform how we view ourselves, and our planet Earth, in relation to the rest of the cosmos. We now know Earth is one planet among eight circling our sun; our sun is part of a swirling galaxy of over one hundred billion other suns; and our galaxy is one of untold billions in the universe. While we do not yet know how many, if any, other biospheres exist on the countless worlds orbiting countless other suns, we stand at the precipice of a new era of discovery, enabled by powerful new facilities able to peer across the light years into the atmospheres of planets similar to our own. This article is an adaptation of a science case document (SCDD) developed for the NASA Astrophysics Flagship mission the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) Science, Technology, and Architecture Review Team (START) Living Worlds Community Working Group.

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arXiv2025

JWST COMPASS: Insights into the Systematic Noise Properties of NIRSpec/G395H From a Uniform Reanalysis of Seven Transmission Spectra

JWST has already observed near-infrared transmission spectra of over a dozen super-Earths and sub-Neptunes. While some observations have allowed astronomers to characterize sub-Neptunes in unprecedented detail, small feature amplitudes and poorly-understood systematics have led to ambiguous results for others. Using the first seven targets from the COMPASS program, which is currently surveying 12 small planet atmospheres using NIRSpec/G395H, we investigate these timeseries systematics. We implement a model that uses the principle components of the normalized pixel fluxes to account for variations in the shape and position of the spectral trace. We find that observations with a smaller number of groups-per-integration benefit most profoundly from the use of this model, and that systematics are particularly strong between 2.8 and 3.5 $\mu$m. Despite these systematics, \texttt{pandexo} is a relatively accurate predictor of the precision of the spectra, with real error bars on average 5\% larger in NRS1 and 12\% larger in NRS2 than predicted. We compute new limits on metallicity and opaque pressure level for each target and compare these to previous results from the COMPASS program. Next, we co-add spectra from multiple targets to reduce the effective noise in the combined spectra in hopes of detecting transmission features in common between the targets, but this exercise does not yield compelling evidence any signals. We find that a handful of additional transits are sufficient to break the degeneracy between metallicity and aerosols for the majority of our targets, pointing towards the possibility of unraveling the mysteries of these worlds with future allocations of JWST time.

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arXiv2025

JWST-TST DREAMS: Sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere of the Neptune-mass planet HAT-P-26 b from NIRSpec G395H transmission spectroscopy

We present the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) transmission spectrum of the exoplanet HAT-P-26 b (18.6 Earth masses, 6.33 Earth radii), based on a single transit observed with the JWST NIRSpec G395H grating. We detect water vapor (ln B = 4.1), carbon dioxide (ln B = 85.6), and sulfur dioxide (ln B = 13.5) with high confidence, along with marginal indications for hydrogen sulfide and carbon monoxide (ln B < 0.5). The detection of SO2 in a warm super-Neptune sized exoplanet (radius about 6 Earth radii) bridges the gap between previous detections in hot Jupiters and sub-Neptunes, highlighting the role of disequilibrium photochemistry across a broad range of exoplanet atmospheres, including those cooler than 1000 K. Our precise measurements of carbon, oxygen, and sulfur indicate an atmospheric metallicity of about 10 times solar and a sub-solar C/O ratio. Retrieved molecular abundances are consistent within 2 sigma with predictions from self-consistent models including photochemistry. The elevated CO2 abundance and possible H2S signal may also reflect sensitivities to the thermal structure, cloud properties, or additional disequilibrium processes such as vertical mixing. We compare the SO2 abundance in HAT-P-26 b with that of ten other JWST-observed giant exoplanets, and find a correlation with atmospheric metallicity. The trend is consistent with the prediction from Crossfield (2023), showing a steep rise in SO2 abundance at low metallicities, and a more gradual increase beyond 30 times solar. This work is part of a series of studies by our JWST Telescope Scientist Team (JWST-TST), in which we use Guaranteed Time Observations to perform Deep Reconnaissance of Exoplanet Atmospheres through Multi-instrument Spectroscopy (DREAMS).

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arXiv2025

Do Rocky Planets around M Stars Have Atmospheres? A Statistical Approach to the Cosmic Shoreline

Answering the question "do rocky exoplanets around M stars have atmospheres?" is a key science goal of the JWST mission, with 500 hours of Director's Discretionary Time (DDT) awarded to address it. Theoretically, the so-called "Cosmic Shoreline" may not hold around M stars due to their harsher XUV environment, possibly resulting in most rocky planets lacking significant atmospheres -- a hypothesis that remains to be statistically tested through judicious target selection. We identify target selection as a combinatorial optimization problem ("knapsack problem"). We develop a statistical framework to test population-level hypotheses from observations and combine a formation and evolution model, 1D-RCE atmosphere model, and genetic algorithm to simulate populations and find the optimal set of observations. We find that, firstly, if all rocky planets around M stars are indeed bare rocks, JWST can efficiently place an upper bound on the atmosphere occurrence rates to less than 1 in 8, even without optimized target selection, but further improvements to the constraint are cost-prohibitive. Secondly, if the Cosmic Shoreline hypothesis (XUV or bolometric) holds true for M stars, strong evidence ($\Delta$BIC>5) can be found within ~500 observing hours using the optimal strategy of a "wide and shallow" approach. Our statistical framework can be directly applied to upcoming observations to robustly identify the Cosmic Shoreline and to optimize target selection for determining other trends in exoplanet atmosphere observations, including those from future missions.

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arXiv2025

Wavelength Requirements for Life Detection via Reflected Light Spectroscopy of Rocky Exoplanets

Searching for signs of life is a primary goal of the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). However, merely detecting oxygen, methane, or other widely discussed biosignatures is insufficient evidence for a biosphere. In parallel with biosignature detection, exoplanet life detection additionally requires characterization of the broader physicochemical context to evaluate planetary habitability and the plausibility that life could produce a particular biosignature in a given environment. Life detection further requires that we can confidently rule out photochemical or geological phenomena that can mimic life. Evaluating false-positive scenarios may require different observatory specifications than biosignature detection surveys. Here, we explore the coronagraph requirements for assessing habitability and for excluding known false-positive (and false-negative) scenarios for oxygen and methane. We find that broad wavelength coverage ranging from the near ultraviolet (0.26 $\mu$m) and extending into the near infrared (1.7 $\mu$m) is necessary to contextualize these potential biosignatures with HWO. The short-wavelength cutoff is driven by the need to identify Proterozoic-like biospheres via O$_3$, whereas the long-wavelength cutoff is driven by the need to contextualize O$_2$ and CH$_4$ biosignatures via constraints on carbon-bearing atmospheric species. The ability to obtain spectra with signal-to-noise ratios of 20-40 across this 0.26-1.7 $\mu$m range (R=7 UV, R=140 VIS, and R=70 NIR) is also required. While not every Earth-analog biosignature and false positive can be unambiguously identified with these capabilities-and the plausibility and contextual clues of many biosignature false positives remain an area of active research-our minimal spectral recommendations would enable a broad search for Earth-like life assuming such observations are achievable for a meaningful number of HWO targets.

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arXiv2025

JWST COMPASS: A NIRSpec G395H Transmission Spectrum of the Super-Earth GJ 357 b

We present JWST NIRSpec/G395H transmission spectroscopy observations of GJ 357 b, a warm ($T_{\mathrm{eq}} \approx 525$ K) super-Earth ($1.2\ \mathrm{R_{\oplus}} $, $1.84\ \mathrm{M_{\oplus}} $) orbiting a nearby M3-type star, with a median precision of 18 ppm and 27 ppm in NRS1 and NRS2, respectively. These precisions are obtained by binning the spectrum into 53 spectroscopic channels with a resolution of 60 pixels (around 0.02 $\mu$m) each. Our analysis of the transmission spectrum reveals no detectable atmospheric spectral features. By comparing the observed spectrum with 1D forward models, we rule out atmospheres with mean molecular weights (MMW) lower than 8 g/mol to $3 \sigma$, as well as atmospheres with metallicities less than 300x solar. The lack of a low MMW primary atmosphere is consistent with a primordial H$_2$ rich atmosphere having escaped, given the planet's $\gtrsim5$ Gyr age, relatively low surface gravity (log g = 3.09), and its likely history of substantial incident extreme ultraviolet radiation. We conclude that GJ 357 b most likely possesses either a high-MMW secondary atmosphere, perhaps rich in oxidized gases like CO$_2$, or is a bare rock with no atmosphere. Upcoming scheduled JWST thermal emission observations could help distinguish between these scenarios by detecting signatures indicative of atmospheric heat redistribution or molecular absorption.

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arXiv2025

Testing Origin-of-Life Theories with the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO)

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) aims to telescopically constrain the frequency and abundance of biospheres in the solar neighborhood. Origin-of-life theories vary in their predictions for the environmental requirements and the expected frequency of abiogenesis, meaning that constraints on the frequency and distribution of life on exoplanets from HWO can in principle directly test theories of abiogenesis. We categorize origin-of-life theories into three broad classes and discuss how HWO could potentially test them. Nondetection of biology on a large sample of habitable planets would provide prior-independent evidence in favor of the class of abiogenesis theory which holds that the origin of life is a contingent, vanishingly unlikely event, whereas detection of event a single biosphere would falsify this class of theories. Correlations of candidate biospheres with planetary parameters such as UV irradiation, the presence of oceans, and the presence of continents can test specific origin-of-life theories. Simulated surveys with Bayesian analysis are required to quantify the ability of HWO to execute this science case. However, a clear theme from the limited such studies that have already been conducted is the need for large sample sizes ($\gtrsim50$ planets characterized) to provide meaningful constraints on abiogenesis theories, favoring a larger design sample for HWO.

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arXiv2025

Prebiosignatures with the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO)

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) aims to characterize habitable exoplanets in search of signs of life. However, detectable life may be rare, either because abiogenesis is intrinsically contingent and unlikely, or because biospheres may efficiently recycle their products. Here, we explore the potential of HWO to test theories of life in the universe even if detectable life is rare by searching for "prebiosignature gases". Prebiosignatures gases are gases whose detection constrains theories of the evolution of prebiotic (habitable but uninhabited) planets, thereby testing theories of abiogenesis and guiding laboratory investigations of the origin of life. We catalog 5 theories of prebiotic environments that are potentially testable by HWO, identify their observational tests, and rank them by perceived detection plausibility. The prebiosignature paradigm is novel and potentially compelling, but considerable work is required to mature it and assess its practical relevance for HWO, especially simulated spectral observation and retrieval studies. However, consideration of the absorption properties of prebiosignature observables alone reveals that coverage at NUV wavelengths (200-400 nm) will be required to effectively realize a prebiosignature science case for HWO, supporting the argument for UV capabilities for HWO.

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arXiv2025

A Comprehensive Reanalysis of K2-18 b's JWST NIRISS+NIRSpec Transmission Spectrum

Sub-Neptunes are the most common type of planet in our galaxy. Interior structure models suggest that the coldest sub-Neptunes could host liquid water oceans underneath their hydrogen envelopes -- sometimes called ``hycean'' planets. JWST transmission spectra of the $\sim$ 250 K sub-Neptune K2-18 b were recently used to report detections of CH$_4$ and CO$_2$, alongside weaker evidence of (CH$_3$)$_2$S (dimethyl sulfide, or DMS). Atmospheric CO$_2$ was interpreted as evidence for a liquid water ocean, while DMS was highlighted as a potential biomarker. However, these notable claims were derived using a single data reduction and retrieval modeling framework, which did not allow for standard robustness tests. Here we present a comprehensive reanalysis of K2-18 b's JWST NIRISS SOSS and NIRSpec G395H transmission spectra, including the first analysis of the second-order NIRISS SOSS data. We incorporate multiple well-tested data reduction pipelines and retrieval codes, spanning 60 different data treatments and over 250 atmospheric retrievals. We confirm the detection of CH$_4$ ($\approx 4\sigma$), with a volume mixing ratio range $-2.14 \leq \log_{10} \mathrm{CH_4} \leq -0.53$, but we find no statistically significant or reliable evidence for CO$_2$ or DMS. Finally, we assess the retrieved atmospheric composition using photochemical-climate and interior models, demonstrating that our revised composition of K2-18\,b can be explained by an oxygen-poor mini-Neptune without requiring a liquid water surface or life.

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arXiv2025

Network and Kinetics-based Biosignatures: Implications for the Putative Habitable World Observatory Design

The proposed Habitable Worlds Observatory is intended to observe the atmospheres of nearby terrestrial exoplanets with a resolution greater than that of any previous instrument. While these observations present a substantial opportunity for astrobiology, they also incur the risk of false positives and false negatives. Here, we explore the use of systems science (in the form of network theory and thermochemical kinetics) to mitigate these risks, and briefly describe the technical specifications HWO would require in order to use these methodologies.

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arXiv2024

The erosion of large primary atmospheres typically leaves behind substantial secondary atmospheres on temperate rocky planets

Exoplanet exploration has revealed that many$\unicode{x2013}$perhaps most$\unicode{x2013}$terrestrial exoplanets formed with substantial H$_2$-rich envelopes, seemingly in contrast to solar system terrestrials, for which there is scant evidence of long-lived primary atmospheres. It is not known how a long-lived primary atmosphere might affect the subsequent habitability prospects of terrestrial exoplanets. Here, we present a new, self-consistent evolutionary model of the transition from primary to secondary atmospheres. The model incorporates all Fe-C-O-H-bearing species and simulates magma ocean solidification, radiative-convective climate, thermal escape, and mantle redox evolution. For our illustrative example TRAPPIST-1, our model strongly favors atmosphere retention for the habitable zone planet TRAPPIST-1e. In contrast, the same model predicts a comparatively thin atmosphere for the Venus-analog TRAPPIST-1b, which would be vulnerable to complete erosion via non-thermal escape and is consistent with JWST observations. More broadly, we conclude that the erosion of primary atmospheres typically does not preclude surface habitability, and frequently results in large surface water inventories due to the reduction of FeO by H$_2$.

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arXiv2024

JWST COMPASS: The 3-5 Micron Transmission Spectrum of the Super-Earth L 98-59 c

We present a JWST NIRSpec transmission spectrum of the super-Earth exoplanet L 98-59 c. This small (R$_p=1.385\pm0.085$R$_\oplus$, M$_p=2.22\pm0.26$R$_\oplus$), warm (T$_\textrm{eq}=553$K) planet resides in a multi-planet system around a nearby, bright (J = 7.933) M3V star. We find that the transmission spectrum of L 98-59 c is featureless at the precision of our data. We achieve precisions of 22ppm in NIRSpec G395H's NRS1 detector and 36ppm in the NRS2 detector at a resolution R$\sim$200 (30 pixel wide bins). At this level of precision, we are able rule out primordial H$_2$-He atmospheres across a range of cloud pressure levels up to at least $\sim$0.1mbar. By comparison to atmospheric forward models, we also rule out atmospheric metallicities below $\sim$300$\times$ solar at 3$\sigma$ (or equivalently, atmospheric mean molecular weights below $\sim$10~g/mol). We also rule out pure methane atmospheres. The remaining scenarios that are compatible with our data include a planet with no atmosphere at all, or higher mean-molecular weight atmospheres, such as CO$_2$- or H$_2$O-rich atmospheres. This study adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that planets $\lesssim1.5$R$_\oplus$ lack extended atmospheres.

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arXiv2022

The Case and Context for Atmospheric Methane as an Exoplanet Biosignature

Methane has been proposed as an exoplanet biosignature. Imminent observations with the James Webb Space Telescope may enable methane detections on potentially habitable exoplanets, so it is essential to assess in what planetary contexts methane is a compelling biosignature. Methane's short photochemical lifetime in terrestrial planet atmospheres implies that abundant methane requires large replenishment fluxes. While methane can be produced by a variety of abiotic mechanisms such as outgassing, serpentinizing reactions, and impacts, we argue that, in contrast to an Earth-like biosphere, known abiotic processes cannot easily generate atmospheres rich in CH$_4$ and CO$_2$ with limited CO due to the strong redox disequilibrium between CH$_4$ and CO$_2$. Methane is thus more likely to be biogenic for planets with 1) a terrestrial bulk density, high mean-molecular-weight and anoxic atmosphere, and an old host star; 2) an abundance of CH$_4$ that implies surface fluxes exceeding what could be supplied by abiotic processes; and 3) atmospheric CO$_2$ with comparatively little CO.

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arXiv2021

Waterworlds Probably Do Not Experience Magmatic Outgassing

Terrestrial planets with large water inventories are likely ubiquitous and will be among the first Earth-sized planets to be characterized with upcoming telescopes. It has previously been argued that waterworlds-particularly those possessing more than 1% H$_2$O-experience limited melt production and outgassing due to the immense pressure overburden of their overlying oceans, unless subject to high internal heating. But an additional, underappreciated obstacle to outgassing on waterworlds is the high solubility of volatiles in high-pressure melts. Here, we investigate this phenomenon and show that volatile solubilities in melts probably prevent almost all magmatic outgassing from waterworlds. Specifically, for Earth-like gravity and oceanic crust composition, oceans or water ice exceeding 10-100 km in depth (0.1-1 GPa) preclude the exsolution of volatiles from partial melt of silicates. This solubility limit compounds the pressure overburden effect as large surface oceans limit both melt production and degassing from any partial melt that is produced. We apply these calculations to Trappist-1 planets to show that, given current mass and radius constraints and implied surface water inventories, Trappist-1f and -1g are unlikely to experience volcanic degassing. While other mechanisms for interior-surface volatile exchange are not completely excluded, the suppression of magmatic outgassing simplifies the range of possible atmospheric evolution trajectories and has implications for interpretation of ostensible biosignature gases, which we illustrate with a coupled model of planetary interior-climate-atmosphere evolution.

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