arXiv subjects

Nick Chater

Publications and source records attributed to Nick Chater.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Towards macroeconomic analysis without microfoundations: measuring the entropy of simulated exchange economies

The theory of thermal macroeconomics (TM) analyses economic phenomena within the mathematical framework of classical thermodynamics, using a set of axioms that apply to the purely macroscopic aspects of an economy [CM]. The theory shows that the possible macro-behaviours are governed by an entropy function. In simple idealised cases, the entropy function can be calculated from the rules governing the interactions of individual agents. But where this is not possible, TM predicts that the entropy can nonetheless be measured empirically through an economic analogue of calorimetry in physics. We show using computer simulations the in-principle feasibility of this approach: an entropy function can successfully be measured for a range of simulated economies that we tested. In cases where entropy can be calculated analytically from microfoundational assumptions, the measured entropy agrees well. In more complex cases, where microfoundational analysis is infeasible, our method of measuring entropy still applies and is validated by demonstrations that entropy is a state function of an economic system, i.e., exhibits path independence. This appears to hold even for some systems to which we don't have a proof that the Axioms of TM apply. Furthermore, in all cases tested, entropy is concave, as predicted by TM. As shown in [CM], once the entropy function is established for a simulated exchange economy, it is possible to derive prices, the value of money and various other quantities, and make predictions about the effects of putting two or more economies in contact.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

PriorProbe: Recovering Individual-Level Priors for Personalizing Neural Networks in Facial Expression Recognition

Incorporating individual-level cognitive priors offers an important route to personalizing neural networks, yet accurately eliciting such priors remains challenging: existing methods either fail to uniquely identify them or introduce systematic biases. Here, we introduce PriorProbe, a novel elicitation approach grounded in Markov Chain Monte Carlo with People that recovers fine-grained, individual-specific priors. Focusing on a facial expression recognition task, we apply PriorProbe to individual participants and test whether integrating the recovered priors with a state-of-the-art neural network improves its ability to predict an individual's classification on ambiguous stimuli. The PriorProbe-derived priors yield substantial performance gains, outperforming both the neural network alone and alternative sources of priors, while preserving the network's inference on ground-truth labels. Together, these results demonstrate that PriorProbe provides a general and interpretable framework for personalizing deep neural networks.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Relational Norms for Human-AI Cooperation

How we should design and interact with social artificial intelligence depends on the socio-relational role the AI is meant to emulate or occupy. In human society, relationships such as teacher-student, parent-child, neighbors, siblings, or employer-employee are governed by specific norms that prescribe or proscribe cooperative functions including hierarchy, care, transaction, and mating. These norms shape our judgments of what is appropriate for each partner. For example, workplace norms may allow a boss to give orders to an employee, but not vice versa, reflecting hierarchical and transactional expectations. As AI agents and chatbots powered by large language models are increasingly designed to serve roles analogous to human positions - such as assistant, mental health provider, tutor, or romantic partner - it is imperative to examine whether and how human relational norms should extend to human-AI interactions. Our analysis explores how differences between AI systems and humans, such as the absence of conscious experience and immunity to fatigue, may affect an AI's capacity to fulfill relationship-specific functions and adhere to corresponding norms. This analysis, which is a collaborative effort by philosophers, psychologists, relationship scientists, ethicists, legal experts, and AI researchers, carries important implications for AI systems design, user behavior, and regulation. While we accept that AI systems can offer significant benefits such as increased availability and consistency in certain socio-relational roles, they also risk fostering unhealthy dependencies or unrealistic expectations that could spill over into human-human relationships. We propose that understanding and thoughtfully shaping (or implementing) suitable human-AI relational norms will be crucial for ensuring that human-AI interactions are ethical, trustworthy, and favorable to human well-being.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Imagining and building wise machines: The centrality of AI metacognition

Although AI has become increasingly smart, its wisdom has not kept pace. In this article, we examine what is known about human wisdom and sketch a vision of its AI counterpart. We analyze human wisdom as a set of strategies for solving intractable problems-those outside the scope of analytic techniques-including both object-level strategies like heuristics [for managing problems] and metacognitive strategies like intellectual humility, perspective-taking, or context-adaptability [for managing object-level strategies]. We argue that AI systems particularly struggle with metacognition; improved metacognition would lead to AI more robust to novel environments, explainable to users, cooperative with others, and safer in risking fewer misaligned goals with human users. We discuss how wise AI might be benchmarked, trained, and implemented.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Tests of thermal macroeconomic theory on simulated micro-economies

In this paper, we test predictions of a new theory of macroeconomics, called "thermal macroeconomics." The theory aims to apply the mathematical structure of classical thermodynamics, including analogues of temperature and entropy, to predict aspects of the aggregate behaviour of populations of economic agents without analyzing their detailed interactions. We test the theory by comparing its predictions with the behaviour of a variety of simulated micro-economies in which goods and money can be exchanged between agents, confirming the predictions of the theory. The paper serves also to illustrate and make more tangible the predictions of thermal macroeconomics.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2017

Mental Sampling in Multimodal Representations

Both resources in the natural environment and concepts in a semantic space are distributed "patchily", with large gaps in between the patches. To describe people's internal and external foraging behavior, various random walk models have been proposed. In particular, internal foraging has been modeled as sampling: in order to gather relevant information for making a decision, people draw samples from a mental representation using random-walk algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, two common empirical observations argue against simple sampling algorithms such as MCMC. First, the spatial structure is often best described by a Lévy flight distribution: the probability of the distance between two successive locations follows a power-law on the distances. Second, the temporal structure of the sampling that humans and other animals produce have long-range, slowly decaying serial correlations characterized as $1/f$-like fluctuations. We propose that mental sampling is not done by simple MCMC, but is instead adapted to multimodal representations and is implemented by Metropolis-coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo (MC$^3$), one of the first algorithms developed for sampling from multimodal distributions. MC$^3$ involves running multiple Markov chains in parallel but with target distributions of different temperatures, and it swaps the states of the chains whenever a better location is found. Heated chains more readily traverse valleys in the probability landscape to propose moves to far-away peaks, while the colder chains make the local steps that explore the current peak or patch. We show that MC$^3$ generates distances between successive samples that follow a Lévy flight distribution and $1/f$-like serial correlations, providing a single mechanistic account of these two puzzling empirical phenomena.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Identification of Probabilities

Within psychology, neuroscience and artificial intelligence, there has been increasing interest in the proposal that the brain builds probabilistic models of sensory and linguistic input: that is, to infer a probabilistic model from a sample. The practical problems of such inference are substantial: the brain has limited data and restricted computational resources. But there is a more fundamental question: is the problem of inferring a probabilistic model from a sample possible even in principle? We explore this question and find some surprisingly positive and general results. First, for a broad class of probability distributions characterised by computability restrictions, we specify a learning algorithm that will almost surely identify a probability distribution in the limit given a finite i.i.d. sample of sufficient but unknown length. This is similarly shown to hold for sequences generated by a broad class of Markov chains, subject to computability assumptions. The technical tool is the strong law of large numbers. Second, for a large class of dependent sequences, we specify an algorithm which identifies in the limit a computable measure for which the sequence is typical, in the sense of Martin-Lof (there may be more than one such measure). The technical tool is the theory of Kolmogorov complexity. We analyse the associated predictions in both cases. We also briefly consider special cases, including language learning, and wider theoretical implications for psychology.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2014

Identification of Probabilities of Languages

We consider the problem of inferring the probability distribution associated with a language, given data consisting of an infinite sequence of elements of the languge. We do this under two assumptions on the algorithms concerned: (i) like a real-life algorothm it has round-off errors, and (ii) it has no round-off errors. Assuming (i) we (a) consider a probability mass function of the elements of the language if the data are drawn independent identically distributed (i.i.d.), provided the probability mass function is computable and has a finite expectation. We give an effective procedure to almost surely identify in the limit the target probability mass function using the Strong Law of Large Numbers. Second (b) we treat the case of possibly incomputable probabilistic mass functions in the above setting. In this case we can only pointswize converge to the target probability mass function almost surely. Third (c) we consider the case where the data are dependent assuming they are typical for at least one computable measure and the language is finite. There is an effective procedure to identify by infinite recurrence a nonempty subset of the computable measures according to which the data is typical. Here we use the theory of Kolmogorov complexity. Assuming (ii) we obtain the weaker result for (a) that the target distribution is identified by infinite recurrence almost surely; (b) stays the same as under assumption (i). We consider the associated predictions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2014

Algorithmic Identification of Probabilities

TThe problem is to identify a probability associated with a set of natural numbers, given an infinite data sequence of elements from the set. If the given sequence is drawn i.i.d. and the probability mass function involved (the target) belongs to a computably enumerable (c.e.) or co-computably enumerable (co-c.e.) set of computable probability mass functions, then there is an algorithm to almost surely identify the target in the limit. The technical tool is the strong law of large numbers. If the set is finite and the elements of the sequence are dependent while the sequence is typical in the sense of Martin-Löf for at least one measure belonging to a c.e. or co-c.e. set of computable measures, then there is an algorithm to identify in the limit a computable measure for which the sequence is typical (there may be more than one such measure). The technical tool is the theory of Kolmogorov complexity. We give the algorithms and consider the associated predictions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2013

Networks in Cognitive Science

Networks of interconnected nodes have long played a key role in Cognitive Science, from artificial neural net- works to spreading activation models of semantic mem- ory. Recently, however, a new Network Science has been developed, providing insights into the emergence of global, system-scale properties in contexts as diverse as the Internet, metabolic reactions, and collaborations among scientists. Today, the inclusion of network theory into Cognitive Sciences, and the expansion of complex- systems science, promises to significantly change the way in which the organization and dynamics of cognitive and behavioral processes are understood. In this paper, we review recent contributions of network theory at different levels and domains within the Cognitive Sciences.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Evolution in a Changing Environment

We propose a simple model for genetic adaptation to a changing environment, describing a fitness landscape characterized by two maxima. One is associated with "specialist" individuals that are adapted to the environment; this maximum moves over time as the environment changes. The other maximum is static, and represents "generalist" individuals not affected by environmental changes. The rest of the landscape is occupied by "maladapted" individuals. Our analysis considers the evolution of these three subpopulations. Our main result is that, in presence of a sufficiently stable environmental feature, as in the case of an unchanging aspect of a physical habitat, specialists can dominate the population. By contrast, rapidly changing environmental features, such as language or cultural habits, are a moving target for the genes; here, generalists dominate, because the best evolutionary strategy is to adopt neutral alleles not specialized for any specific environment. The model we propose is based on simple assumptions about evolutionary dynamics and describes all possible scenarios in a non-trivial phase diagram. The approach provides a general framework to address such fundamental issues as the Baldwin effect, the biological basis for language, or the ecological consequences of a rapid climate change.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2013

The Biological Origin of Linguistic Diversity

In contrast with animal communication systems, diversity is characteristic of almost every aspect of human language. Languages variously employ tones, clicks, or manual signs to signal differences in meaning; some languages lack the noun-verb distinction (e.g., Straits Salish), whereas others have a proliferation of fine-grained syntactic categories (e.g., Tzeltal); and some languages do without morphology (e.g., Mandarin), while others pack a whole sentence into a single word (e.g., Cayuga). A challenge for evolutionary biology is to reconcile the diversity of languages with the high degree of biological uniformity of their speakers. Here, we model processes of language change and geographical dispersion and find a consistent pressure for flexible learning, irrespective of the language being spoken. This pressure arises because flexible learners can best cope with the observed high rates of linguistic change associated with divergent cultural evolution following human migration. Thus, rather than genetic adaptations for specific aspects of language, such as recursion, the coevolution of genes and fast-changing linguistic structure provides the biological basis for linguistic diversity. Only biological adaptations for flexible learning combined with cultural evolution can explain how each child has the potential to learn any human language.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Language learning from positive evidence, reconsidered: A simplicity-based approach

Children learn their native language by exposure to their linguistic and communicative environment, but apparently without requiring that their mistakes are corrected. Such learning from positive evidence has been viewed as raising logical problems for language acquisition. In particular, without correction, how is the child to recover from conjecturing an over-general grammar, which will be consistent with any sentence that the child hears? There have been many proposals concerning how this logical problem can be dissolved. Here, we review recent formal results showing that the learner has sufficient data to learn successfully from positive evidence, if it favours the simplest encoding of the linguistic input. Results include the ability to learn a linguistic prediction, grammaticality judgements, language production, and form-meaning mappings. The simplicity approach can also be scaled-down to analyse the ability to learn a specific linguistic constructions, and is amenable to empirical test as a framework for describing human language acquisition.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2010

The probabilistic analysis of language acquisition: Theoretical, computational, and experimental analysis

There is much debate over the degree to which language learning is governed by innate language-specific biases, or acquired through cognition-general principles. Here we examine the probabilistic language acquisition hypothesis on three levels: We outline a novel theoretical result showing that it is possible to learn the exact generative model underlying a wide class of languages, purely from observing samples of the language. We then describe a recently proposed practical framework, which quantifies natural language learnability, allowing specific learnability predictions to be made for the first time. In previous work, this framework was used to make learnability predictions for a wide variety of linguistic constructions, for which learnability has been much debated. Here, we present a new experiment which tests these learnability predictions. We find that our experimental results support the possibility that these linguistic constructions are acquired probabilistically from cognition-general principles.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2001

The Generalized Universal Law of Generalization

It has been argued by Shepard that there is a robust psychological law that relates the distance between a pair of items in psychological space and the probability that they will be confused with each other. Specifically, the probability of confusion is a negative exponential function of the distance between the pair of items. In experimental contexts, distance is typically defined in terms of a multidimensional Euclidean space-but this assumption seems unlikely to hold for complex stimuli. We show that, nonetheless, the Universal Law of Generalization can be derived in the more complex setting of arbitrary stimuli, using a much more universal measure of distance. This universal distance is defined as the length of the shortest program that transforms the representations of the two items of interest into one another: the algorithmic information distance. It is universal in the sense that it minorizes every computable distance: it is the smallest computable distance. We show that the universal law of generalization holds with probability going to one-provided the confusion probabilities are computable. We also give a mathematically more appealing form

cs.CV↗