arXiv subjects

Nick Duffield

Publications and source records attributed to Nick Duffield.

35 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Micro- and Macro-Level Churn Analysis of Large-Scale Mobile Games

As mobile devices become more and more popular, mobile gaming has emerged as a promising market with billion-dollar revenues. A variety of mobile game platforms and services have been developed around the world. A critical challenge for these platforms and services is to understand the churn behavior in mobile games, which usually involves churn at micro level (between an app and a specific user) and macro level (between an app and all its users). Accurate micro-level churn prediction and macro-level churn ranking will benefit many stakeholders such as game developers, advertisers, and platform operators. In this paper, we present the first large-scale churn analysis for mobile games that supports both micro-level churn prediction and macro-level churn ranking. For micro-level churn prediction, in view of the common limitations of the state-of-the-art methods built upon traditional machine learning models, we devise a novel semi-supervised and inductive embedding model that jointly learns the prediction function and the embedding function for user-app relationships. We model these two functions by deep neural networks with a unique edge embedding technique that is able to capture both contextual information and relationship dynamics. We also design a novel attributed random walk technique that takes into consideration both topological adjacency and attribute similarities. To address macro-level churn ranking, we propose to construct a relationship graph with estimated micro-level churn probabilities as edge weights and adapt link analysis algorithms on the graph. We devise a simple algorithm SimSum and adapt two more advanced algorithms PageRank and HITS. The performance of our solutions for the two-level churn analysis problems is evaluated on real-world data collected from the Samsung Game Launcher platform.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Streaming Network Embedding through Local Actions

Recently, considerable research attention has been paid to network embedding, a popular approach to construct feature vectors of vertices. Due to the curse of dimensionality and sparsity in graphical datasets, this approach has become indispensable for machine learning tasks over large networks. The majority of existing literature has considered this technique under the assumption that the network is static. However, networks in many applications, nodes and edges accrue to a growing network as a streaming. A small number of very recent results have addressed the problem of embedding for dynamic networks. However, they either rely on knowledge of vertex attributes, suffer high-time complexity or need to be re-trained without closed-form expression. Thus the approach of adapting the existing methods to the streaming environment faces non-trivial technical challenges. These challenges motivate developing new approaches to the problems of streaming network embedding. In this paper, We propose a new framework that is able to generate latent features for new vertices with high efficiency and low complexity under specified iteration rounds. We formulate a constrained optimization problem for the modification of the representation resulting from a stream arrival. We show this problem has no closed-form solution and instead develop an online approximation solution. Our solution follows three steps: (1) identify vertices affected by new vertices, (2) generate latent features for new vertices, and (3) update the latent features of the most affected vertices. The generated representations are provably feasible and not far from the optimal ones in terms of expectation. Multi-class classification and clustering on five real-world networks demonstrate that our model can efficiently update vertex representations and simultaneously achieve comparable or even better performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

A Semi-Supervised and Inductive Embedding Model for Churn Prediction of Large-Scale Mobile Games

Mobile gaming has emerged as a promising market with billion-dollar revenues. A variety of mobile game platforms and services have been developed around the world. One critical challenge for these platforms and services is to understand user churn behavior in mobile games. Accurate churn prediction will benefit many stakeholders such as game developers, advertisers, and platform operators. In this paper, we present the first large-scale churn prediction solution for mobile games. In view of the common limitations of the state-of-the-art methods built upon traditional machine learning models, we devise a novel semi-supervised and inductive embedding model that jointly learns the prediction function and the embedding function for user-app relationships. We model these two functions by deep neural networks with a unique edge embedding technique that is able to capture both contextual information and relationship dynamics. We also design a novel attributed random walk technique that takes into consideration both topological adjacency and attribute similarities. To evaluate the performance of our solution, we collect real-world data from the Samsung Game Launcher platform that includes tens of thousands of games and hundreds of millions of user-app interactions. The experimental results with this data demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model against existing state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Graph Reconstruction from Path Correlation Data

A communication network can be modeled as a directed connected graph with edge weights that characterize performance metrics such as loss and delay. Network tomography aims to infer these edge weights from their pathwise versions measured on a set of intersecting paths between a subset of boundary vertices, and even the underlying graph when this is not known. In particular, temporal correlations between path metrics have been used infer composite weights on the subpath formed by the path intersection. We call these subpath weights the Path Correlation Data. In this paper we ask the following question: when can the underlying weighted graph be recovered knowing only the boundary vertices and the Path Correlation Data? We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for a graph to be reconstructible from this information, and describe an algorithm to perform the reconstruction. Subject to our conditions, the result applies to directed graphs with asymmetric edge weights, and accommodates paths arising from asymmetric routing in the underlying communication network. We also describe the relationship between the graph produced by our algorithm and the true graph in the case that our conditions are not satisfied.

math.CO↗

arXiv2018

Sampling for Approximate Bipartite Network Projection

Bipartite networks manifest as a stream of edges that represent transactions, e.g., purchases by retail customers. Many machine learning applications employ neighborhood-based measures to characterize the similarity among the nodes, such as the pairwise number of common neighbors (CN) and related metrics. While the number of node pairs that share neighbors is potentially enormous, only a relatively small proportion of them have many common neighbors. This motivates finding a weighted sampling approach to preferentially sample these node pairs. This paper presents a new sampling algorithm that provides a fixed size unbiased estimate of the similarity matrix resulting from a bipartite graph stream projection. The algorithm has two components. First, it maintains a reservoir of sampled bipartite edges with sampling weights that favor selection of high similarity nodes. Second, arriving edges generate a stream of \textsl{similarity updates} based on their adjacency with the current sample. These updates are aggregated in a second reservoir sample-based stream aggregator to yield the final unbiased estimate. Experiments on real world graphs show that a 10% sample at each stage yields estimates of high similarity edges with weighted relative errors of about 1%.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Stream Aggregation Through Order Sampling

This is paper introduces a new single-pass reservoir weighted-sampling stream aggregation algorithm, Priority-Based Aggregation (PBA). While order sampling is a powerful and e cient method for weighted sampling from a stream of uniquely keyed items, there is no current algorithm that realizes the benefits of order sampling in the context of stream aggregation over non-unique keys. A naive approach to order sample regardless of key then aggregate the results is hopelessly inefficient. In distinction, our proposed algorithm uses a single persistent random variable across the lifetime of each key in the cache, and maintains unbiased estimates of the key aggregates that can be queried at any point in the stream. The basic approach can be supplemented with a Sample and Hold pre-sampling stage with a sampling rate adaptation controlled by PBA. This approach represents a considerable reduction in computational complexity compared with the state of the art in adapting Sample and Hold to operate with a fixed cache size. Concerning statistical properties, we prove that PBA provides unbiased estimates of the true aggregates. We analyze the computational complexity of PBA and its variants, and provide a detailed evaluation of its accuracy on synthetic and trace data. Weighted relative error is reduced by 40% to 65% at sampling rates of 5% to 17%, relative to Adaptive Sample and Hold; there is also substantial improvement for rank queries

cs.DS↗

arXiv2017

On Sampling from Massive Graph Streams

We propose Graph Priority Sampling (GPS), a new paradigm for order-based reservoir sampling from massive streams of graph edges. GPS provides a general way to weight edge sampling according to auxiliary and/or size variables so as to accomplish various estimation goals of graph properties. In the context of subgraph counting, we show how edge sampling weights can be chosen so as to minimize the estimation variance of counts of specified sets of subgraphs. In distinction with many prior graph sampling schemes, GPS separates the functions of edge sampling and subgraph estimation. We propose two estimation frameworks: (1) Post-Stream estimation, to allow GPS to construct a reference sample of edges to support retrospective graph queries, and (2) In-Stream estimation, to allow GPS to obtain lower variance estimates by incrementally updating the subgraph count estimates during stream processing. Unbiasedness of subgraph estimators is established through a new Martingale formulation of graph stream order sampling, which shows that subgraph estimators, written as a product of constituent edge estimators are unbiased, even when computed at different points in the stream. The separation of estimation and sampling enables significant resource savings relative to previous work. We illustrate our framework with applications to triangle and wedge counting. We perform a large-scale experimental study on real-world graphs from various domains and types. GPS achieves high accuracy with less than 1% error for triangle and wedge counting, while storing a small fraction of the graph with average update times of a few microseconds per edge. Notably, for a large Twitter graph with more than 260M edges, GPS accurately estimates triangle counts with less than 1% error, while storing only 40K edges.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Signature inversion for monotone paths

The aim of this article is to provide a simple sampling procedure to reconstruct any monotone path from its signature. For every N, we sample a lattice path of N steps with weights given by the coefficient of the corresponding word in the signature. We show that these weights on lattice paths satisfy the large deviations principle. In particular, this implies that the probability of picking up a "wrong" path is exponentially small in N. The argument relies on a probabilistic interpretation of the signature for monotone paths.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Efficient Sampling for Better OSN Data Provisioning

Data concerning the users and usage of Online Social Networks (OSNs) has become available externally, from public resources (e.g., user profiles), participation in OSNs (e.g., establishing relationships and recording transactions such as user updates) and APIs of the OSN provider (such as the Twitter API). APIs let OSN providers monetize the release of data while helping control measurement load, e.g. by providing samples with different cost-granularity tradeoffs. To date, this approach has been more suited to releasing transactional data, with graphical data still being obtained by resource intensive methods such a graph crawling. In this paper, we propose a method for OSNs to provide samples of the user graph of tunable size, in non-intersecting increments, with sample selection that can be weighted to enhance accuracy when estimating different features of the graph.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2016

Near-Optimal Disjoint-Path Facility Location Through Set Cover by Pairs

In this paper we consider two special cases of the "cover-by-pairs" optimization problem that arise when we need to place facilities so that each customer is served by two facilities that reach it by disjoint shortest paths. These problems arise in a network traffic monitoring scheme proposed by Breslau et al. and have potential applications to content distribution. The "set-disjoint" variant applies to networks that use the OSPF routing protocol, and the "path-disjoint" variant applies when MPLS routing is enabled, making better solutions possible at the cost of greater operational expense. Although we can prove that no polynomial-time algorithm can guarantee good solutions for either version, we are able to provide heuristics that do very well in practice on instances with real-world network structure. Fast implementations of the heuristics, made possible by exploiting mathematical observations about the relationship between the network instances and the corresponding instances of the cover-by-pairs problem, allow us to perform an extensive experimental evaluation of the heuristics and what the solutions they produce tell us about the effectiveness of the proposed monitoring scheme. For the set-disjoint variant, we validate our claim of near-optimality via a new lower-bounding integer programming formulation. Although computing this lower bound requires solving the NP-hard Hitting Set problem and can underestimate the optimal value by a linear factor in the worst case, it can be computed quickly by CPLEX, and it equals the optimal solution value for all the instances in our extensive testbed.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2016

Graphlet Decomposition: Framework, Algorithms, and Applications

From social science to biology, numerous applications often rely on graphlets for intuitive and meaningful characterization of networks at both the global macro-level as well as the local micro-level. While graphlets have witnessed a tremendous success and impact in a variety of domains, there has yet to be a fast and efficient approach for computing the frequencies of these subgraph patterns. However, existing methods are not scalable to large networks with millions of nodes and edges, which impedes the application of graphlets to new problems that require large-scale network analysis. To address these problems, we propose a fast, efficient, and parallel algorithm for counting graphlets of size k={3,4}-nodes that take only a fraction of the time to compute when compared with the current methods used. The proposed graphlet counting algorithms leverages a number of proven combinatorial arguments for different graphlets. For each edge, we count a few graphlets, and with these counts along with the combinatorial arguments, we obtain the exact counts of others in constant time. On a large collection of 300+ networks from a variety of domains, our graphlet counting strategies are on average 460x faster than current methods. This brings new opportunities to investigate the use of graphlets on much larger networks and newer applications as we show in the experiments. To the best of our knowledge, this paper provides the largest graphlet computations to date as well as the largest systematic investigation on over 300+ networks from a variety of domains.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Graph Sample and Hold: A Framework for Big-Graph Analytics

Sampling is a standard approach in big-graph analytics; the goal is to efficiently estimate the graph properties by consulting a sample of the whole population. A perfect sample is assumed to mirror every property of the whole population. Unfortunately, such a perfect sample is hard to collect in complex populations such as graphs (e.g. web graphs, social networks etc), where an underlying network connects the units of the population. Therefore, a good sample will be representative in the sense that graph properties of interest can be estimated with a known degree of accuracy. While previous work focused particularly on sampling schemes used to estimate certain graph properties (e.g. triangle count), much less is known for the case when we need to estimate various graph properties with the same sampling scheme. In this paper, we propose a generic stream sampling framework for big-graph analytics, called Graph Sample and Hold (gSH). To begin, the proposed framework samples from massive graphs sequentially in a single pass, one edge at a time, while maintaining a small state. We then show how to produce unbiased estimators for various graph properties from the sample. Given that the graph analysis algorithms will run on a sample instead of the whole population, the runtime complexity of these algorithm is kept under control. Moreover, given that the estimators of graph properties are unbiased, the approximation error is kept under control. Finally, we show the performance of the proposed framework (gSH) on various types of graphs, such as social graphs, among others.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2013

On the Tradeoff between Stability and Fit

In computing, as in many aspects of life, changes incur cost. Many optimization problems are formulated as a one-time instance starting from scratch. However, a common case that arises is when we already have a set of prior assignments, and must decide how to respond to a new set of constraints, given that each change from the current assignment comes at a price. That is, we would like to maximize the fitness or efficiency of our system, but we need to balance it with the changeout cost from the previous state. We provide a precise formulation for this tradeoff and analyze the resulting {\em stable extensions} of some fundamental problems in measurement and analytics. Our main technical contribution is a stable extension of PPS (probability proportional to size) weighted random sampling, with applications to monitoring and anomaly detection problems. We also provide a general framework that applies to top-$k$, minimum spanning tree, and assignment. In both cases, we are able to provide exact solutions, and discuss efficient incremental algorithms that can find new solutions as the input changes.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2012

Tiresias: Online Anomaly Detection for Hierarchical Operational Network Data

Operational network data, management data such as customer care call logs and equipment system logs, is a very important source of information for network operators to detect problems in their networks. Unfortunately, there is lack of efficient tools to automatically track and detect anomalous events on operational data, causing ISP operators to rely on manual inspection of this data. While anomaly detection has been widely studied in the context of network data, operational data presents several new challenges, including the volatility and sparseness of data, and the need to perform fast detection (complicating application of schemes that require offline processing or large/stable data sets to converge). To address these challenges, we propose Tiresias, an automated approach to locating anomalous events on hierarchical operational data. Tiresias leverages the hierarchical structure of operational data to identify high-impact aggregates (e.g., locations in the network, failure modes) likely to be associated with anomalous events. To accommodate different kinds of operational network data, Tiresias consists of an online detection algorithm with low time and space complexity, while preserving high detection accuracy. We present results from two case studies using operational data collected at a large commercial IP network operated by a Tier-1 ISP: customer care call logs and set-top box crash logs. By comparing with a reference set verified by the ISP's operational group, we validate that Tiresias can achieve >94% accuracy in locating anomalies. Tiresias also discovered several previously unknown anomalies in the ISP's customer care cases, demonstrating its effectiveness.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2011

Structure-Aware Sampling: Flexible and Accurate Summarization

In processing large quantities of data, a fundamental problem is to obtain a summary which supports approximate query answering. Random sampling yields flexible summaries which naturally support subset-sum queries with unbiased estimators and well-understood confidence bounds. Classic sample-based summaries, however, are designed for arbitrary subset queries and are oblivious to the structure in the set of keys. The particular structure, such as hierarchy, order, or product space (multi-dimensional), makes range queries much more relevant for most analysis of the data. Dedicated summarization algorithms for range-sum queries have also been extensively studied. They can outperform existing sampling schemes in terms of accuracy on range queries per summary size. Their accuracy, however, rapidly degrades when, as is often the case, the query spans multiple ranges. They are also less flexible - being targeted for range sum queries alone - and are often quite costly to build and use. In this paper we propose and evaluate variance optimal sampling schemes that are structure-aware. These summaries improve over the accuracy of existing structure-oblivious sampling schemes on range queries while retaining the benefits of sample-based summaries: flexible summaries, with high accuracy on both range queries and arbitrary subset queries.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2010

Stream sampling for variance-optimal estimation of subset sums

From a high volume stream of weighted items, we want to maintain a generic sample of a certain limited size $k$ that we can later use to estimate the total weight of arbitrary subsets. This is the classic context of on-line reservoir sampling, thinking of the generic sample as a reservoir. We present an efficient reservoir sampling scheme, $\varoptk$, that dominates all previous schemes in terms of estimation quality. $\varoptk$ provides {\em variance optimal unbiased estimation of subset sums}. More precisely, if we have seen $n$ items of the stream, then for {\em any} subset size $m$, our scheme based on $k$ samples minimizes the average variance over all subsets of size $m$. In fact, the optimality is against any off-line scheme with $k$ samples tailored for the concrete set of items seen. In addition to optimal average variance, our scheme provides tighter worst-case bounds on the variance of {\em particular} subsets than previously possible. It is efficient, handling each new item of the stream in $O(\log k)$ time. Finally, it is particularly well suited for combination of samples from different streams in a distributed setting.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2005

Sampling to estimate arbitrary subset sums

Starting with a set of weighted items, we want to create a generic sample of a certain size that we can later use to estimate the total weight of arbitrary subsets. For this purpose, we propose priority sampling which tested on Internet data performed better than previous methods by orders of magnitude. Priority sampling is simple to define and implement: we consider a steam of items i=0,...,n-1 with weights w_i. For each item i, we generate a random number r_i in (0,1) and create a priority q_i=w_i/r_i. The sample S consists of the k highest priority items. Let t be the (k+1)th highest priority. Each sampled item i in S gets a weight estimate W_i=max{w_i,t}, while non-sampled items get weight estimate W_i=0. Magically, it turns out that the weight estimates are unbiased, that is, E[W_i]=w_i, and by linearity of expectation, we get unbiased estimators over any subset sum simply by adding the sampled weight estimates from the subset. Also, we can estimate the variance of the estimates, and surpricingly, there is no co-variance between different weight estimates W_i and W_j. We conjecture an extremely strong near-optimality; namely that for any weight sequence, there exists no specialized scheme for sampling k items with unbiased estimators that gets smaller total variance than priority sampling with k+1 items. Very recently Mario Szegedy has settled this conjecture.

cs.DS↗