arXiv subjects

Nicklas Werge

Publications and source records attributed to Nicklas Werge.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Deep Exploration with PAC-Bayes

Reinforcement learning (RL) for continuous control under delayed rewards is an under-explored problem despite its significance in real-world applications. Many complex skills are based on intermediate ones as prerequisites. For instance, a humanoid locomotor must learn how to stand before it can learn to walk. To cope with delayed reward, an agent must perform deep exploration. However, existing deep exploration methods are designed for small discrete action spaces, and their generalization to state-of-the-art continuous control remains unproven. We address the deep exploration problem for the first time from a PAC-Bayesian perspective in the context of actor-critic learning. To do this, we quantify the error of the Bellman operator through a PAC-Bayes bound, where a bootstrapped ensemble of critic networks represents the posterior distribution, and their targets serve as a data-informed function-space prior. We derive an objective function from this bound and use it to train the critic ensemble. Each critic trains an individual soft actor network, implemented as a shared trunk and critic-specific heads. The agent performs deep exploration by acting epsilon-softly on a randomly chosen actor head. Our proposed algorithm, named {\it PAC-Bayesian Actor-Critic (PBAC)}, is the only algorithm to consistently discover delayed rewards on continuous control tasks with varying difficulty.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Improving Actor-Critic Training with Steerable Action-Value Approximation Errors

Off-policy actor-critic algorithms have shown strong potential in deep reinforcement learning for continuous control tasks. Their success primarily comes from leveraging pessimistic state-action value function updates, which reduce function approximation errors and stabilize learning. However, excessive pessimism can limit exploration, preventing the agent from effectively refining its policies. Conversely, optimism can encourage exploration but may lead to high-risk behaviors and unstable learning if not carefully managed. To address this trade-off, we propose Utility Soft Actor-Critic (USAC), a novel framework that allows independent, interpretable control of pessimism and optimism for both the actor and the critic. USAC dynamically adapts its exploration strategy based on the uncertainty of critics using a utility function, enabling a task-specific balance between optimism and pessimism. This approach goes beyond binary choices of pessimism or optimism, making the method both theoretically meaningful and practically feasible. Experiments across a variety of continuous control tasks show that adjusting the degree of pessimism or optimism significantly impacts performance. When configured appropriately, USAC consistently outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms, demonstrating its practical utility and feasibility.

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arXiv2025

Adaptive Ensemble Aggregation for Actor-Critics

Ensembles are ubiquitous in off-policy actor-critic learning, yet their efficacy depends critically on how they are aggregated. Current methods typically rely on static rules or task-specific hyperparameters to balance overestimation bias and variance, leaving the challenge of a truly adaptive approach open. We introduce Adaptive Ensemble Aggregation (AEA), an algorithm that dynamically constructs ensemble-based targets for both critic and actor updates directly from training dynamics. We prove that AEA converges to a unique equilibrium where the aggregation parameter minimizes value estimation error within a defined stability region. Theoretically, we establish that AEA achieves a shrinkage property where the estimation bias vanishes as the total ensemble size grows. Unlike subset-based methods like REDQ, which hit an information bottleneck determined by a fixed variance floor regardless of the ensemble size, AEA exploits the full ensemble to achieve optimal variance reduction-scaling inversely with the total number of models-and maximal Fisher information. Furthermore, we provide a formal guarantee for monotonic policy improvement under this adaptive regime. Extensive evaluations on various continuous control tasks demonstrate that AEA outperforms, on the majority of tasks, state-of-the-art baselines, providing a robust and self-calibrating framework for ensemble-based reinforcement learning.

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arXiv2025

ObjectRL: An Object-Oriented Reinforcement Learning Codebase

ObjectRL is an open-source Python codebase for deep reinforcement learning (RL), designed for research-oriented prototyping with minimal programming effort. Unlike existing codebases, ObjectRL is built on Object-Oriented Programming (OOP) principles, providing a clear structure that simplifies the implementation, modification, and evaluation of new algorithms. ObjectRL lowers the entry barrier for deep RL research by organizing best practices into explicit, clearly separated components, making them easier to understand and adapt. Each algorithmic component is a class with attributes that describe key RL concepts and methods that intuitively reflect their interactions. The class hierarchy closely follows common ontological relationships, enabling data encapsulation, inheritance, and polymorphism, which are core features of OOP. We demonstrate the efficiency of ObjectRL's design through representative use cases that highlight its flexibility and suitability for rapid prototyping. The documentation and source code are available at https://objectrl.readthedocs.io and https://github.com/adinlab/objectrl .

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arXiv2024

An adaptive volatility method for probabilistic forecasting and its application to the M6 financial forecasting competition

In this paper, we address the problem of probabilistic forecasting using an adaptive volatility method rooted in classical time-varying volatility models and leveraging online stochastic optimization algorithms. These principles were successfully applied in the M6 forecasting competition under the team named AdaGaussMC. Our approach takes a unique path by embracing the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) instead of trying to beat the market directly. We focus on evaluating the efficient market, emphasizing the importance of online forecasting in adapting to the dynamic nature of financial markets. The three key points of our approach are: (a) apply the univariate time-varying volatility model AdaVol, (b) obtain probabilistic forecasts of future returns, and (c) optimize the competition metrics using stochastic gradient-based algorithms. We contend that the simplicity of our approach contributes to its robustness and consistency. Remarkably, our performance in the M6 competition resulted in an overall 7th ranking, with a noteworthy 5th position in the forecasting task. This achievement, considering the perceived simplicity of our approach, underscores the efficacy of our adaptive volatility method in the realm of probabilistic forecasting.

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arXiv2024

On Adaptive Stochastic Optimization for Streaming Data: A Newton's Method with O(dN) Operations

Stochastic optimization methods encounter new challenges in the realm of streaming, characterized by a continuous flow of large, high-dimensional data. While first-order methods, like stochastic gradient descent, are the natural choice, they often struggle with ill-conditioned problems. In contrast, second-order methods, such as Newton's methods, offer a potential solution, but their computational demands render them impractical. This paper introduces adaptive stochastic optimization methods that bridge the gap between addressing ill-conditioned problems while functioning in a streaming context. Notably, we present an adaptive inversion-free Newton's method with a computational complexity matching that of first-order methods, $\mathcal{O}(dN)$, where $d$ represents the number of dimensions/features, and $N$ the number of data. Theoretical analysis confirms their asymptotic efficiency, and empirical evidence demonstrates their effectiveness, especially in scenarios involving complex covariance structures and challenging initializations. In particular, our adaptive Newton's methods outperform existing methods, while maintaining favorable computational efficiency.

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arXiv2023

Demystifying the Myths and Legends of Nonconvex Convergence of SGD

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and its variants are the main workhorses for solving large-scale optimization problems with nonconvex objective functions. Although the convergence of SGDs in the (strongly) convex case is well-understood, their convergence for nonconvex functions stands on weak mathematical foundations. Most existing studies on the nonconvex convergence of SGD show the complexity results based on either the minimum of the expected gradient norm or the functional sub-optimality gap (for functions with extra structural property) by searching the entire range of iterates. Hence the last iterations of SGDs do not necessarily maintain the same complexity guarantee. This paper shows that an $ε$-stationary point exists in the final iterates of SGDs, given a large enough total iteration budget, $T$, not just anywhere in the entire range of iterates -- a much stronger result than the existing one. Additionally, our analyses allow us to measure the density of the $ε$-stationary points in the final iterates of SGD, and we recover the classical $O(\frac{1}{\sqrt{T}})$ asymptotic rate under various existing assumptions on the objective function and the bounds on the stochastic gradient. As a result of our analyses, we addressed certain myths and legends related to the nonconvex convergence of SGD and posed some thought-provoking questions that could set new directions for research.

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arXiv2023

Learning from time-dependent streaming data with online stochastic algorithms

This paper addresses stochastic optimization in a streaming setting with time-dependent and biased gradient estimates. We analyze several first-order methods, including Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), mini-batch SGD, and time-varying mini-batch SGD, along with their Polyak-Ruppert averages. Our non-asymptotic analysis establishes novel heuristics that link dependence, biases, and convexity levels, enabling accelerated convergence. Specifically, our findings demonstrate that (i) time-varying mini-batch SGD methods have the capability to break long- and short-range dependence structures, (ii) biased SGD methods can achieve comparable performance to their unbiased counterparts, and (iii) incorporating Polyak-Ruppert averaging can accelerate the convergence of the stochastic optimization algorithms. To validate our theoretical findings, we conduct a series of experiments using both simulated and real-life time-dependent data.

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arXiv2023

Weighted Sequential Bayesian Inference for Non-Stationary Linear Contextual Bandits

In non-stationary linear contextual bandits, existing efficient algorithms typically rely on the Weighted Regularized Least-Squares (WRLS) estimator. Because WRLS only provides point estimates, previous methods typically construct surrogate distributions when aiming to perform Bayesian-like randomized exploration. To more properly establish the Bayesian principles, we introduce Weighted Sequential Bayesian (WSB) inference, which forms a sequence of posteriors over a sequence of non-stationary reward parameters. This Bayesian take allows us to isolate the influence of initial beliefs into a dynamic prior penalty evaluated through the posterior covariance, which typically decreases over time. Building on this framework, we instantiate three WSB-based algorithms for exploration: WSB-LinUCB, WSB-RandLinUCB, and WSB-LinTS. By extending a refined drift analysis to randomized exploration without requiring local norms, we establish frequentist regret guarantees that match state-of-the-art WRLS-based baselines. Empirically, WSB's dynamic prior penalty reduces over-conservatism, allowing our algorithms to consistently match or exceed their WRLS-based counterparts. Lastly, we also provide a simplified proof for the time-uniform concentration of vector-valued martingales, a critical subroutine used throughout the literature, that might be of independent interest.

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arXiv2023

Non-Asymptotic Analysis of Stochastic Approximation Algorithms for Streaming Data

We introduce a streaming framework for analyzing stochastic approximation/optimization problems. This streaming framework is analogous to solving optimization problems using time-varying mini-batches that arrive sequentially. We provide non-asymptotic convergence rates of various gradient-based algorithms; this includes the famous Stochastic Gradient (SG) descent (a.k.a. Robbins-Monro algorithm), mini-batch SG and time-varying mini-batch SG algorithms, as well as their iterated averages (a.k.a. Polyak-Ruppert averaging). We show i) how to accelerate convergence by choosing the learning rate according to the time-varying mini-batches, ii) that Polyak-Ruppert averaging achieves optimal convergence in terms of attaining the Cramer-Rao lower bound, and iii) how time-varying mini-batches together with Polyak-Ruppert averaging can provide variance reduction and accelerate convergence simultaneously, which is advantageous for many learning problems, such as online, sequential, and large-scale learning. We further demonstrate these favorable effects for various time-varying mini-batches.

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arXiv2021

Predicting Risk-adjusted Returns using an Asset Independent Regime-switching Model

Financial markets tend to switch between various market regimes over time, making stationarity-based models unsustainable. We construct a regime-switching model independent of asset classes for risk-adjusted return predictions based on hidden Markov models. This framework can distinguish between market regimes in a wide range of financial markets such as the commodity, currency, stock, and fixed income market. The proposed method employs sticky features that directly affect the regime stickiness and thereby changing turnover levels. An investigation of our metric for risk-adjusted return predictions is conducted by analyzing daily financial market changes for almost twenty years. Empirical demonstrations of out-of-sample observations obtain an accurate detection of bull, bear, and high volatility periods, improving risk-adjusted returns while keeping a preferable turnover level.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2021

AdaVol: An Adaptive Recursive Volatility Prediction Method

Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) procedures are theoretically appealing and widely used for statistical inference. While there are extensive references on QML estimation in batch settings, it has attracted little attention in streaming settings until recently. An investigation of the convergence properties of the QML procedure in a general conditionally heteroscedastic time series model is conducted, and the classical batch optimization routines extended to the framework of streaming and large-scale problems. An adaptive recursive estimation routine for GARCH models named AdaVol is presented. The AdaVol procedure relies on stochastic approximations combined with the technique of Variance Targeting Estimation (VTE). This recursive method has computationally efficient properties, while VTE alleviates some convergence difficulties encountered by the usual QML estimation due to a lack of convexity. Empirical results demonstrate a favorable trade-off between AdaVol's stability and the ability to adapt to time-varying estimates for real-life data.

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