arXiv subjects

Nico Föge

Publications and source records attributed to Nico Föge.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Central Limit Theorem for the permutation importance measure

Random Forests have become a widely used tool in machine learning since their introduction in 2001, known for their strong performance in classification and regression tasks. One key feature of Random Forests is the Random Forest Permutation Importance Measure (RFPIM), an internal, non-parametric measure of variable importance. While widely used, theoretical work on RFPIM is sparse, and most research has focused on empirical findings. However, recent progress has been made, such as establishing consistency of the RFPIM, although a mathematical analysis of its asymptotic distribution is still missing. In this paper, we provide a formal proof of a Central Limit Theorem for RFPIM using U-Statistics theory. Our approach deviates from the conventional Random Forest model by assuming a random number of trees and imposing conditions on the regression functions and error terms, which must be bounded and additive, respectively. Our result aims at improving the theoretical understanding of RFPIM rather than conducting comprehensive hypothesis testing. However, our contributions provide a solid foundation and demonstrate the potential for future work to extend to practical applications which we also highlight with a small simulation study.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Confidence Intervals for Random Forest Permutation Importance with Missing Data

Random Forests are renowned for their predictive accuracy, but valid inference, particularly about permutation-based feature importances, remains challenging. Existing methods, such as the confidence intervals (CIs) from Ishwaran et al. (2019), are promising but assume complete feature observation. However, real-world data often contains missing values. In this paper, we investigate how common imputation techniques affect the validity of Random Forest permutation-importance CIs when data are incomplete. Through an extensive simulation and real-world benchmark study, we compare state-of-the-art imputation methods across various missing-data mechanisms and missing rates. Our results show that single-imputation strategies lead to low CI coverage. As a remedy, we adapt Rubin's rule to aggregate feature-importance estimates and their variances over several imputed datasets and account for imputation uncertainty. Our numerical results indicate that the adjusted CIs achieve better nominal coverage.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Adapting tree-based multiple imputation methods for multi-level data? A simulation study

When data have a hierarchical structure, such as students nested within classrooms, ignoring dependencies between observations can compromise the validity of imputation procedures. Standard tree-based imputation methods implicitly assume independence between observations, limiting their applicability in multilevel data settings. Although Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) is widely used for hierarchical data, it has limitations, including sensitivity to model specification and computational complexity. Alternative tree-based approaches have shown promise for individual-level data, but remain largely unexplored for hierarchical contexts. In this simulation study, we systematically evaluate the performance of novel tree-based methods--Chained Random Forests and Extreme Gradient Boosting (mixgb)--explicitly adapted for multi-level data by incorporating dummy variables indicating cluster membership. We compare these tree-based methods and their adapted versions with traditional MICE imputation in terms of coefficient estimation bias, type I error rates and statistical power, under different cluster sizes, missingness mechanisms and missingness rates, using both random intercept and random slope data generation models. The results show that MICE provides robust and accurate inference for level 2 variables, especially at low missingness rates. However, the adapted boosting approach (mixgb with cluster dummies) consistently outperforms other methods for Level-1 variables at higher missingness rates (30%, 50%). For level 2 variables, while MICE retains better power at moderate missingness (30%), adapted boosting becomes superior at high missingness (50%), regardless of the missingness mechanism or cluster size. These findings highlight the potential of appropriately adapted tree-based imputation methods as effective alternatives to conventional MICE in multilevel data analyses.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Even naive trees are consistent

The last decade has shed some light on theoretical properties such as their consistency for regression tasks. In the current paper, we propose a new class of very simple learners based on so-called naive trees. These naive trees partition the feature space completely at random and independent of the data. Although counter-intuitive, we prove these naive trees and ensembles are consistent under fairly general assumptions. However, naive trees appear to be too simple for actual application. We therefore analyze their finite sample properties in a simulation and small benchmark study. We find a slow convergence speed and a rather poor predictive performance. Based on these results, we finally discuss to what extent consistency proofs help to justify the application of complex learning algorithms.

math.ST↗