arXiv subjects

Nicola Borri

Publications and source records attributed to Nicola Borri.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Does Regulation Bite at Gateways? Evidence from MiCA and Stablecoins

Gateways are trading venues where regulation can change the assets investors can trade. We study this margin using MiCA-EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation-which led several exchanges to delist USDT pairs for European Economic Area users, while USDC obtained MiCA authorization. First, aggregate market shares and trading volumes barely move. Second, comparing Regulated-facing exchanges with globally oriented exchanges where MiCA is less likely to bind, we show that the cross-section shifts toward USDC-USDC share rises by 0.82 and relative trading volume by 0.54 pre-event standard deviations. Both reflect USDT trading contracting where it is delisted.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2026

AI Premium

Using 380 trillion tokens of realized AI consumption across more than four hundred large language models from the licensed proprietary OpenRouter dataset covering approximately 2 percent of current global monthly AI token consumption, we analyze how AI affects firms, markets, and workers. Leveraging the unprecedented size, scope and granularity data, we construct the AI Factor from growth in tokens, dollars, and users, estimate firm-level AI Betas from stock return comovement, and characterize the \emph{AI Premium}. First, we build a high-frequency AI factor and decompose it into salient components. Second, we show that firms whose returns covary more positively with the AI factor -- high AI beta firms -- earn higher subsequent returns, and the AI premium is large and heterogeneous. A value-weighted long-short strategy earns 64.1 basis points per week, and the premium is large for loadings on the intensive, frontier-oriented margin of AI consumption -- closed-source models, paying and seasoned users, and long prompts -- but not on casual or open-weight use. Third, the premium reaches beyond technology firms into consumer-facing and capital-heavy parts of the economy, but is absent in emerging markets, including China. Fourth, the AI exposure is more positive in nonroutine interactive work and more negative in analytical, scientific, and operations-control skills -- an occupation one standard deviation higher in interaction-and-communication content has 0.36-standard-deviation higher market-implied AI exposure. Additionally, we provide early evidence of the rise of the agentic economy.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Trading Frictions in Dynamic Cap-and-Trade Markets

We develop a dynamic stochastic model of markets with an externality and multiple trading frictions, and cap-and-trade as the leading application. Slow participation, limited intermediation, and heterogeneous information interact in equilibrium: agents choose costly market access, access determines residual compliance demand, intermediary constraints translate residual demand into a surrender-month premium, and the premium feeds back into access incentives. These interactions shape how effectively the market corrects the externality. We characterize access choices in closed form, prove that the equilibrium premium is unique, and show that endogenous access dampens the response to each friction in isolation, while the interaction of multiple frictions is non-additive and can amplify the price response. We quantify the model using 2.7 million EU ETS registry transactions and compliance records from 2005-2021. About 40% of operators do not trade annually, purchases concentrate in April when returns are systematically high, and operator flow predicts future returns.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2026

Systemic Risk in the European Insurance Sector

This paper studies systemic-risk connectedness in the European insurance sector at three levels of granularity: across major segments of financial markets, across insurance subsectors, and across individual insurance companies. Using a common connectedness framework applied to returns, volatility, value-at-risk, and expected shortfall, we document that insurers are an important component of systemic-risk connectedness, especially during stress episodes. We also provide reduced-form evidence on economically relevant channels in the European institutional setting: aggregate insurer spillovers co-move with term spreads, sovereign spreads, and funding stress, and firm-level insurer-to-bank spillovers vary with sovereign risk and domestic sovereign-bond home bias in a way consistent with a balance-sheet channel. The analysis further reveals substantial heterogeneity across subsectors and identifies a stable core of systemically central insurers in firm-level networks.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2026

Higher-Order Asset Pricing Factors via Forward Selection Fama-MacBeth Regression

We show that the higher-order terms and interactions of the common sparse linear factors are significantly priced in the cross-section of equity returns. A higher-order model with only a small number of selected higher-order terms from six widely used factors outperforms traditional benchmarks both in-sample and out-of-sample. It also substantially reduces the alphas of the extensive factor zoo, suggesting that the pricing power of many zoo factors is attributable to their exposure to higher-order terms of common linear factors. We identify and rank the most relevant higher-order terms by developing a forward selection Fama-MacBeth procedure.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Cryptocurrency as an Investable Asset Class: Coming of Age

We organize existing empirical regularities of cryptocurrencies into seven stylized facts and analyze cryptocurrencies through the lens of empirical asset pricing. We find important similarities with traditional markets--risk-adjusted performance so far is broadly comparable, and the cross-section of returns can be summarized by a small set of factors. However, cryptocurrency also has its own distinct character: jumps are frequent and large, and blockchain information helps drive prices. This common set of stylized facts provides evidence that cryptocurrency is emerging as an investable asset class. Additionally, we discuss potential data quality issues and possible changes in future regulations and the cryptocurrency environment.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2025

Corporate Finance in the Age of Fintech: Scenarios and Challenges

Blockchain is a technological innovation that has the potential to radically change our financial markets by providing an alternative management approach to the "promise market", which is the foundation of our financial systems. Its disruptive potential also extends to corporate finance, where blockchain is beginning to influence valuation methods and capital allocation strategies, offering new perspectives on how companies are assessed and financed. However, for a new financial architecture based on blockchain and advancements in technology -- what is commonly referred to as Fintech -- to replace, in whole or in part, traditional finance, it will need to overcome significant challenges such as regulation, environmental sustainability, its association with illegal activities, and achieving greater efficiency in cryptocurrency markets. For this reason, the future of Fintech is likely to be more conventional -- yet also more transparent, efficient, and regulated -- ultimately evolving to resemble the traditional finance we know.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2024

Inefficiencies of Carbon Trading Markets

The European Union Emission Trading System is a prominent market-based mechanism to reduce emissions. While the theory is well understood, we are the first to study the whole cap-and-trade mechanism as a financial market. Analyzing the universe of transactions in 2005-2020 (more than one million records of granular transaction data), we show that this market features significant inefficiencies undermining its goals. First, about 40% of firms never trade in a given year. Second, many firms only trade during surrendering months, when compliance is immediate and prices are predictably high. Third, a number of operators engage in speculative trading, exploiting private information.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2024

One Factor to Bind the Cross-Section of Returns

We propose a new non-linear single-factor asset pricing model $r_{it}=h(f_{t}λ_{i})+ε_{it}$. Despite its parsimony, this model represents exactly any non-linear model with an arbitrary number of factors and loadings -- a consequence of the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem. It features only one pricing component $h(f_{t}λ_{I})$, comprising a nonparametric link function of the time-dependent factor and factor loading that we jointly estimate with sieve-based estimators. Using 171 assets across major classes, our model delivers superior cross-sectional performance with a low-dimensional approximation of the link function. Most known finance and macro factors become insignificant controlling for our single-factor.

q-fin.GN↗