arXiv subjects

Nicola Parolini

Publications and source records attributed to Nicola Parolini.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out: an application to the Italian scenario

In the context of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, mathematical modelling has played a fundamental role for making forecasts, simulating scenarios and evaluating the impact of preventive political, social and pharmaceutical measures. Optimal control theory can be a useful tool based on solid mathematical bases to plan the vaccination campaign in the direction of eradicating the pandemic as fast as possible. The aim of this work is to explore the optimal prioritisation order for planning vaccination campaigns able to achieve specific goals, as the reduction of the amount of infected, deceased and hospitalized in a fixed time frame, among age classes. For this purpose, we introduce an age stratified SIR-like epidemic compartmental model settled in an abstract framework for modelling two-doses vaccination campaigns and conceived with the description of COVID19 disease. Overall, we formalize an optimal control framework adopting the model as state problem by acting on the administrations of vaccine-doses. An extensive campaign of numerical tests, featured in the Italian scenario and calibrated on available data from Dipartimento di Protezione Civile Italiana, shows that the presented framework can be a valuable tool to support the planning of vaccination campaigns minimizing specific goals.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model

Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, first introduced in [Parolini et al, Proc R. Soc. A., 2021] to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy, which accounts for the vaccination campaign and the presence of new variants when they become dominant. In particular, the specific features of the variants (e.g. their increased transmission rate) and vaccines (e.g. their efficacy to prevent transmission, hospitalization and death) are modeled, based on clinical evidence. The new model is validated comparing its near-future forecast capabilities with other epidemiological models and exploring different scenario analyses.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

A Mathematical Dashboard for the Analysis of Italian COVID-19 Epidemic Data

An analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic is proposed on the basis of the epiMOX dashboard (publicly accessible at https://www.epimox.polimi.it) that deals with data of the epidemic trends and outbreaks in Italy from late February 2020. Our analysis provides an immediate appreciation of the past epidemic development, together with its current trends by fostering a deeper interpretation of available data through several critical epidemic indicators. In addition, we complement the epiMOX dashboard with a predictive tool based on an epidemiological compartmental model, named SUIHTER, for the forecast on the near future epidemic evolution.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

SUIHTER: A new mathematical model for COVID-19. Application to the analysis of the second epidemic outbreak in Italy

The COVID-19 epidemic is the last of a long list of pandemics that have affected humankind in the last century. In this paper, we propose a novel mathematical epidemiological model named SUIHTER from the names of the seven compartments that it comprises: susceptible uninfected individuals (S), undetected (both asymptomatic and symptomatic) infected (U), isolated (I), hospitalized (H), threatened (T), extinct (E), and recovered (R). A suitable parameter calibration that is based on the combined use of least squares method and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is proposed with the aim of reproducing the past history of the epidemic in Italy, surfaced in late February and still ongoing to date, and of validating SUIHTER in terms of its predicting capabilities. A distinctive feature of the new model is that it allows a one-to-one calibration strategy between the model compartments and the data that are daily made available from the Italian Civil Protection. The new model is then applied to the analysis of the Italian epidemic with emphasis on the second outbreak emerged in Fall 2020. In particular, we show that the epidemiological model SUIHTER can be suitably used in a predictive manner to perform scenario analysis at national level.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2017

Optimal control in ink-jet printing via instantaneous control

This paper concerns the optimal control of a free surface flow with moving contact line, inspired by an application in ink-jet printing. Surface tension, contact angle and wall friction are taken into account by means of the generalized Navier boundary condition. The time-dependent differential system is discretized by an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian finite element method, and a control problem is addressed by an instantaneous control approach, based on the time discretization of the flow equations. The resulting control procedure is computationally highly efficient and its assessment by numerical tests show its effectiveness in deadening the natural oscillations that occur inside the nozzle and reducing significantly the duration of the transient preceding the attainment of the equilibrium configuration.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Topology optimization of multiple anisotropic materials, with application to self-assembling diblock copolymers

We propose a solution strategy for a multimaterial minimum compliance topology optimization problem, which consists in finding the optimal allocation of a finite number of candidate (possibly anisotropic) materials inside a reference domain, with the aim of maximizing the stiffness of the body. As a relevant and novel application we consider the optimization of self-assembled structures obtained by means of diblock copolymers. Such polymers are a class of self-assembling materials which spontaneously synthesize periodic microstructures at the nanoscale, whose anisotropic features can be exploited to build structures with optimal elastic response, resembling biological tissues exhibiting microstructures, such as bones and wood. For this purpose we present a new generalization of the classical Optimality Criteria algorithm to encompass a wider class of problems, where multiple candidate materials are considered, the orientation of the anisotropic materials is optimized, and the elastic properties of the materials are assumed to depend on a scalar parameter, which is optimized simultaneously to the material allocation and orientation. Well-posedness of the optimization problem and well-definition of the presented algorithm are narrowly treated and proved. The capabilities of the proposed method are assessed through several numerical tests.

math.NA↗

arXiv2014

Shape optimization for Stokes flow: a reference domain approach

In this paper we analyze a shape optimization problem, with Stokes equations as the state problem, defined on a domain with a part of the boundary that is described as the graph of the control function. The state problem formulation is mapped onto a reference domain, which is independent of the control function, and the analysis is mainly led on such domain. The existence of an optimal control function is proved, and optimality conditions are derived. After the analytical inspection of the problem, finite element discretization is considered for both the control function and the state variables, and a priori convergence error estimates are derived. Numerical experiments assess the validity of the theoretical results.

math.NA↗

arXiv2013

Multiphysics simulation of corona discharge induced ionic wind

Ionic wind devices or electrostatic fluid accelerators are becoming of increasing interest as tools for thermal management, in particular for semiconductor devices. In this work, we present a numerical model for predicting the performance of such devices, whose main benefit is the ability to accurately predict the amount of charge injected at the corona electrode. Our multiphysics numerical model consists of a highly nonlinear strongly coupled set of PDEs including the Navier-Stokes equations for fluid flow, Poisson's equation for electrostatic potential, charge continuity and heat transfer equations. To solve this system we employ a staggered solution algorithm that generalizes Gummel's algorithm for charge transport in semiconductors. Predictions of our simulations are validated by comparison with experimental measurements and are shown to closely match. Finally, our simulation tool is used to estimate the effectiveness of the design of an electrohydrodynamic cooling apparatus for power electronics applications.

physics.comp-ph↗