arXiv subjects

Nicola Sartori

Publications and source records attributed to Nicola Sartori.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Focused median bias reduction

Median bias reduction of maximum likelihood estimators can substantially improve estimation and inference. Existing generally applicable methods are, however, implicit, requiring the solution of nonlinear systems of estimating equations for a specified parameterization. Their application to parameter transformations often involves tedious algebra and bespoke implementations. We develop an explicit median bias-corrected estimator for focus parameters that are smooth scalar transformations of a chosen reference parameterization. The estimator results from solving an equation derived from the Cornish-Fisher expansion of the centred and scaled maximum likelihood estimator of the focus parameter, and requires only the ML or an asymptotically equivalent estimator at the reference parameterization, the gradient and Hessian of the transformation, and expectations of products of log-likelihood derivatives. These expectations are available for many models in the bias reduction literature and can also be estimated by Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting estimators are third-order median unbiased and provide one-step approximations to estimators from implicit median bias reduction when the reference parameterization includes the focus parameter. The method can improve standard asymptotic inference and enables hull-based confidence procedures to produce intervals with near nominal finite-sample coverage under median bias control. We illustrate the framework through post-selection inference using the Focused Information Criterion, Mahalanobis distances, quantiles, and scalar focus parameters in regression, stratified, circular, and multiple-mediator models.

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arXiv2026

Efficient computation of mixture confidence sequences in generalized linear models

Classical confidence intervals, when repeatedly obtained on accumulating data at different sample sizes, produce contradictory inferences with high probability. We propose a simple and efficient strategy for computing, instead, mixture confidence sequences for regression coefficients in generalized linear models under this sequential framework. Simulations demonstrate the computational convenience of our approach and the importance of drawing inferential conclusions based on these anytime-valid tools when observations become available in batches over time. The usefulness of the proposed procedure is also shown in the analysis of streaming data from the American National Automotive Sampling System.

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arXiv2026

Directional testing for one-way MANOVA in divergent dimensions

Testing the equality of mean vectors across $g$ different groups plays an important role in many scientific fields. In regular frameworks, likelihood-based statistics under the normality assumption offer a general solution to this task. However, the accuracy of standard asymptotic results is not reliable when the dimension $p$ of the data is large relative to the sample size $n_i$ of each group. We propose here an exact directional test for the equality of $g$ normal mean vectors with identical unknown covariance matrix in a high dimensional setting, provided that $\sum_{i=1}^g n_i \ge p+g+1$. In the case of two groups ($g=2$), the directional test coincides with the Hotelling's $T^2$ test. In the more general situation where the $g$ independent groups may have different unknown covariance matrices, although exactness does not hold, simulation studies show that the directional test is more accurate than most commonly used likelihood{-}based solutions, at least in a moderate dimensional setting in which $p=O(n_i^τ)$, $τ\in (0,1)$. Robustness of the directional approach and its competitors under deviation from the assumption of multivariate normality is also numerically investigated. Our proposal is here applied to data on blood characteristics of male athletes and to microarray data storing gene expressions in patients with breast tumors.

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arXiv2023

Directional tests in Gaussian graphical models

Directional tests to compare incomplete undirected graphs are developed in the general context of covariance selection for Gaussian graphical models. The exactness of the underlying saddlepoint approximation is proved for chordal graphs and leads to exact control of the size of the tests, given that the only approximation error involved is due to the numerical calculation of two scalar integrals. Although exactness is not guaranteed for non-chordal graphs, the ability of the saddlepoint approximation to control the relative error leads the directional test to overperform its competitors even in these cases. The accuracy of our proposal is verified by simulation experiments under challenging scenarios, where inference via standard asymptotic approximations to the likelihood ratio test and some of its higher-order modifications fails. The directional approach is used to illustrate the assessment of Markovian dependencies in a dataset from a veterinary trial on cattle. A second example with microarray data shows how to select the graph structure related to genetic anomalies due to acute lymphocytic leukemia.

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arXiv2022

Directional testing for high-dimensional multivariate normal distributions

Thanks to its favorable properties, the multivariate normal distribution is still largely employed for modeling phenomena in various scientific fields. However, when the number of components $p$ is of the same asymptotic order as the sample size $n$, standard inferential techniques are generally inadequate to conduct hypothesis testing on the mean vector and/or the covariance matrix. Within several prominent frameworks, we propose then to draw reliable conclusions via a directional test. We show that under the null hypothesis the directional $p$-value is exactly uniformly distributed even when $p$ is of the same order of $n$, provided that conditions for the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate for the normal model are satisfied. Extensive simulation results confirm the theoretical findings across different values of $p/n$, and show that under the null hypothesis the directional test outperforms not only the usual first and higher-order finite-$p$ solutions but also alternative methods tailored for high-dimensional settings. Simulation results also indicate that the power performance of the different tests depends on the specific alternative hypothesis.

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arXiv2022

Parametric bootstrap inference for stratified models with high-dimensional nuisance specifications

Inference about a scalar parameter of interest typically relies on the asymptotic normality of common likelihood pivots, such as the signed likelihood root, the score and Wald statistics. Nevertheless, the resulting inferential procedures are known to perform poorly when the dimension of the nuisance parameter is large relative to the sample size and when the information about the parameters is limited. In many such cases, the use of asymptotic normality of analytical modifications of the signed likelihood root is known to recover inferential performance. It is proved here that parametric bootstrap of standard likelihood pivots results in as accurate inferences as analytical modifications of the signed likelihood root do in stratified models with stratum specific nuisance parameters. We focus on the challenging case where the number of strata increases as fast or faster than the stratum samples size. It is also shown that this equivalence holds regardless of whether constrained or unconstrained bootstrap is used. This is in contrast to when the number of strata is fixed or increases slower than the stratum sample size, where we show that constrained bootstrap corrects inference to a higher order than unconstrained bootstrap. Simulation experiments support the theoretical findings and demonstrate the excellent performance of bootstrap in extreme scenarios.

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arXiv2021

Adjusted composite likelihood for robust Bayesian meta-analysis

A composite likelihood is a non-genuine likelihood function that allows to make inference on limited aspects of a model, such as marginal or conditional distributions. Composite likelihoods are not proper likelihoods and need therefore calibration for their use in inference, from both a frequentist and a Bayesian perspective. The maximizer to the composite likelihood can serve as an estimator and its variance is assessed by means of a suitably defined sandwich matrix. In the Bayesian setting, the composite likelihood can be adjusted by means of magnitude and curvature methods. Magnitude methods imply raising the likelihood to a constant, while curvature methods imply evaluating the likelihood at a different point by translating, rescaling and rotating the parameter vector. Some authors argue that curvature methods are more reliable in general, but others proved that magnitude methods are sufficient to recover, for instance, the null distribution of a test statistic. We propose a simple calibration for the marginal posterior distribution of a scalar parameter of interest which is invariant to monotonic and smooth transformations. This can be enough for instance in medical statistics, where a single scalar effect measure is often the target.

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arXiv2020

Efficient implementation of median bias reduction with applications to general regression models

In numerous regular statistical models, median bias reduction (Kenne Pagui et al., 2017) has proven to be a noteworthy improvement over maximum likelihood, alternative to mean bias reduction. The estimator is obtained as solution to a modified score equation ensuring smaller asymptotic median bias than the maximum likelihood estimator. This paper provides a simplified algebraic form of the adjustment term for general regular models. With the new formula, the estimation procedure benefits from a considerable computational gain by avoiding multiple summations and thus allows an efficient implementation. More importantly, the new formulation allows to highlight how the median bias reduction adjustment can be obtained by adding an extra term to the mean bias reduction adjustment. Illustrations are provided through new applications of median bias reduction to two regression models not belonging to the generalized linear models class, extended beta regression and beta-binomial regression. Mean bias reduction is also provided here for the latter model. Simulation studies show remarkable componentwise median centering of the median bias reduced estimator, while variability and coverage of related confidence intervals are comparable with those of mean bias reduction. Moreover, empirical results for the beta-binomial model show that the method is successful in solving maximum likelihood boundary estimate problem.

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arXiv2020

Accurate inference in negative binomial regression

Negative binomial regression is commonly employed to analyze overdispersed count data. With small to moderate sample sizes, the maximum likelihood estimator of the dispersion parameter may be subject to a significant bias, that in turn affects inference on mean parameters. This paper proposes inference for negative binomial regression based on adjustments of the score function aimed at mean and median bias reduction. The resulting estimating equations are similar to those available for improved inference in generalized linear models and, in particular, can be solved using a suitable extension of iterative weighted least squares. Simulation studies show a remarkable performance of the new methods, which are also found to solve in many cases numerical problems of maximum likelihood estimates. The methods are illustrated and evaluated using two case studies: an Ames salmonella assay data set and data on epileptic seizures. Inference based on adjusted scores turns out to be generally preferable to explicit bias correction.

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arXiv2019

Robust approximate Bayesian inference

We discuss an approach for deriving robust posterior distributions from $M$-estimating functions using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods. In particular, we use $M$-estimating functions to construct suitable summary statistics in ABC algorithms. The theoretical properties of the robust posterior distributions are discussed. Special attention is given to the application of the method to linear mixed models. Simulation results and an application to a clinical study demonstrate the usefulness of the method. An R implementation is also provided in the robustBLME package.

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arXiv2019

Mean and median bias reduction in generalized linear models

This paper presents an integrated framework for estimation and inference from generalized linear models using adjusted score equations that result in mean and median bias reduction. The framework unifies theoretical and methodological aspects of past research on mean bias reduction and accommodates, in a natural way, new advances on median bias reduction. General expressions for the adjusted score functions are derived in terms of quantities that are readily available in standard software for fitting generalized linear models. The resulting estimating equations are solved using a unifying quasi-Fisher scoring algorithm that is shown to be equivalent to iteratively re-weighted least squares with appropriately adjusted working variates. Formal links between the iterations for mean and median bias reduction are established. Core model invariance properties are used to develop a novel mixed adjustment strategy when the estimation of a dispersion parameter is necessary. It is also shown how median bias reduction in multinomial logistic regression can be done using the equivalent Poisson log-linear model. The estimates coming out from mean and median bias reduction are found to overcome practical issues related to infinite estimates that can occur with positive probability in generalized linear models with multinomial or discrete responses, and can result in valid inferences even in the presence of a high-dimensional nuisance parameter

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arXiv2018

Monte Carlo modified profile likelihood in models for clustered data

The main focus of the analysts who deal with clustered data is usually not on the clustering variables, and hence the group-specific parameters are treated as nuisance. If a fixed effects formulation is preferred and the total number of clusters is large relative to the single-group sizes, classical frequentist techniques relying on the profile likelihood are often misleading. The use of alternative tools, such as modifications to the profile likelihood or integrated likelihoods, for making accurate inference on a parameter of interest can be complicated by the presence of nonstandard modelling and/or sampling assumptions. We show here how to employ Monte Carlo simulation in order to approximate the modified profile likelihood in some of these unconventional frameworks. The proposed solution is widely applicable and is shown to retain the usual properties of the modified profile likelihood. The approach is examined in two instances particularly relevant in applications, i.e. missing-data models and survival models with unspecified censoring distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed solution is validated via simulation studies and two clinical trial applications.

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arXiv2018

A New Look at $F$-Tests

Directional inference for vector parameters based on higher order approximations in likelihood inference has recently been developed in the literature. Here we explore examples of directional inference where the calculations can be simplified. It is found that in several classical situations the directional test is equivalent to the usual $F$-test. These situations include testing the ratio of group variances and rates from normal and exponential distributions, linear regression with a linear constraint and Hotelling's $T^2$-test.

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arXiv2018

Median bias reduction in random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression

Random-effects models are frequently used to synthesise information from different studies in meta-analysis. While likelihood-based inference is attractive both in terms of limiting properties and of implementation, its application in random-effects meta-analysis may result in misleading conclusions, especially when the number of studies is small to moderate. The current paper shows how methodology that reduces the asymptotic bias of the maximum likelihood estimator of the variance component can also substantially improve inference about the mean effect size. The results are derived for the more general framework of random-effects meta-regression, which allows the mean effect size to vary with study-specific covariates.

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arXiv2017

Median bias reduction of maximum likelihood estimates

For regular parametric problems, we show how median centering of the maximum likelihood estimate can be achieved by a simple modification of the score equation. For a scalar parameter of interest, the estimator is equivariant under interest respecting parameterizations and third-order median unbiased. With a vector parameter of interest, componentwise equivariance and third-order median centering are obtained. Like Firth's (1993, Biometrika) implicit method for bias reduction, the new method does not require finiteness of the maximum likelihood estimate and is effective in preventing infinite estimates. Simulation results for continuous and discrete models, including binary and beta regression, confirm that the method succeeds in achieving componentwise median centering and in solving the infinite estimate problem, while keeping comparable dispersion and the same approximate distribution as its main competitors.

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arXiv2016

Improved Laplace Approximation for Marginal Likelihoods

Statistical applications often involve the calculation of intractable multidimensional integrals. The Laplace formula is widely used to approximate such integrals. However, in high-dimensional or small sample size problems, the shape of the integrand function may be far from that of the Gaussian density, and thus the standard Laplace approximation can be inaccurate. We propose an improved Laplace approximation that reduces the asymptotic error of the standard Laplace formula by one order of magnitude, thus leading to third-order accuracy. We also show, by means of practical examples of various complexity, that the proposed method is extremely accurate, even in high dimensions, improving over the standard Laplace formula. Such examples also demonstrate that the accuracy of the proposed method is comparable with that of other existing methods, which are computationally more demanding. An R implementation of the improved Laplace approximation is also provided through the R package iLaplace available on CRAN.

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arXiv2015

Approximate Bayesian Computation with composite score functions

Both Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and composite likelihood methods are useful for Bayesian and frequentist inference, respectively, when the likelihood function is intractable. We propose to use composite likelihood score functions as summary statistics in ABC in order to obtain accurate approximations to the posterior distribution. This is motivated by the use of the score function of the full likelihood, and extended to general unbiased estimating functions in complex models. Moreover, we show that if the composite score is suitably standardised, the resulting ABC procedure is invariant to reparameterisations and automatically adjusts the curvature of the composite likelihood, and of the corresponding posterior distribution. The method is illustrated through examples with simulated data, and an application to modelling of spatial extreme rainfall data is discussed.

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arXiv2014

Empirical and Simulated Adjustments of Composite Likelihood Ratio Statistics

Composite likelihood inference has gained much popularity thanks to its computational manageability and its theoretical properties. Unfortunately, performing composite likelihood ratio tests is inconvenient because of their awkward asymptotic distribution. There are many proposals for adjusting composite likelihood ratio tests in order to recover an asymptotic chi square distribution, but they all depend on the sensitivity and variability matrices. The same is true for Wald-type and score-type counterparts. In realistic applications sensitivity and variability matrices usually need to be estimated, but there are no comparisons of the performance of composite likelihood based statistics in such an instance. A comparison of the accuracy of inference based on the statistics considering two methods typically employed for estimation of sensitivity and variability matrices, namely an empirical method that exploits independent observations, and Monte Carlo simulation, is performed. The results in two examples involving the pairwise likelihood show that a very large number of independent observations should be available in order to obtain accurate coverages using empirical estimation, while limited simulation from the full model provides accurate results regardless of the availability of independent observations.

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