arXiv subjects

Nicolas B. Cowan

Publications and source records attributed to Nicolas B. Cowan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

On the Information Content of Ariel Transmission Spectra: Reassessing the Tier System

The European Space Agency's Ariel mission will conduct a survey of the atmospheric properties of exoplanets around bright stars. The mission is nominally divided into three Tiers. The Tier 1 survey will consist of low-precision observations of ~1000 planets, with a subset of these included in the higher-precision Tier 2 survey expected to be necessary for atmospheric characterization. Tier 3 will be repeated observations of a small number of benchmark planets. Though previous studies have assessed the ability of Ariel to uncover population-level trends, they have generally presupposed a given Tier. Here we interrogate this assumption and assess the information content of Ariel transmission spectra as a function of Tier for three benchmark planets: a hot-Saturn, warm-Neptune, and temperate sub-Neptune. We simulate a grid of Ariel transit spectra at different Tiers for each target and use retrievals to assess which chemical species are well constrained. We find that for giant planets like a hot-Saturn or warm-Neptune, Tier 1-quality observations are sufficient for $\lesssim$1.5\,dex constraints on H$_2$O and CO$_2$, even in the presence of grey clouds --- meaning important chemical insights are already obtainable in the Tier 1 survey. Moving to Tiers 2 and 3 results in an incremental increase in precision as well as other molecules becoming constrainable in certain scenarios (e.g., H$_2$S, CO). Tier 1 observations are also sufficient to identify CH$_4$ in a temperate sub-Neptune, whereas observations with at least Tier 2 precision are necessary for CO$_2$. The number of transits necessary to reach this observational S/N, however, may be prohibitive for the inclusion of temperate sub-Neptunes in even the Tier 1 survey.

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arXiv2026

POSTELLAR: Posterior Stellar Spectrum Sampling - An Alternative to Approximate Stellar Spectra for Exoplanetary Analysis

We present a novel approach to perform posterior sampling of the underlying stellar spectrum in high-resolution spectroscopic observations. Our method, postellar, coherently combines information from empirical observations and physics-based models, enabling more accurate spectral recovery while providing uncertainties that can be propagated into downstream analyses. This is accomplished by treating the intrinsic stellar spectrum as a latent variable and performing posterior sampling under a Gaussian likelihood with an informative prior constructed using a score-based diffusion model trained on PHOENIX stellar models. We validate the framework on synthetic SPIRou radial velocity (RV) observations generated from the empirical spectra of Barnard's Star and Proxima Centauri. Spectra inferred with postellar more accurately recover the ground truth than standard empirical templates. For medium signal-to-noise observations, postellar improves RV accuracy by up to a factor of three, while RVs derived from empirical templates tend to be biased. This method performs particularly well in low signal-to-noise and low-cadence regimes. The postellar framework is broadly applicable to other high-resolution spectroscopy science cases including stellar abundance analyses and exoplanet atmospheric characterization.

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arXiv2026

Night-sky emission correction techniques for high-resolution spectroscopy: Demonstration with NIRPS

Ground-based spectrographs operating in the near-infrared (NIR) regime are hampered by various absorption and emission features of Earth's atmosphere. While considerable attention has been paid to mitigating telluric absorption, correcting telluric emission features remains non-trivial and can significantly affect the observation of faint targets. We aim to develop and implement automated algorithms for sky background emission correction in the context of high-resolution spectroscopy. These empirical-based algorithms have been officially integrated into both NIRPS data reduction pipelines: NIRPS DRS and APERO DRS. Designed for flexibility, these techniques can be incorporated into the reduction workflow of any high-resolution spectrograph to improve the radial velocity (RV) performance. In our approach, a reference sky spectrum is first created by deep-stacking NIRPS sky calibration frames on a common wavelength grid and calculating the weighted median flux per pixel, separately for both the high-accuracy and high-efficiency instrument modes. This process is repeated for all spectral orders and for both the object and sky-calibration fibres: fibre A and fibre B, respectively. In this reference sky spectrum, the sky emission lines can be identified and used to construct a static library. During the data reduction process, the emission features in the library are individually scaled in terms of flux using two distinct techniques, each specific to the two DRS pipelines. Finally, they are locally subtracted from the science observations to minimise their noise contribution to the final spectrum. We find that the correction algorithms significantly improve the RV measurements obtained using both the cross-correlation function and line-by-line techniques, enabling NIRPS to achieve submetre-per-second precision in the NIR. The techniques have been successfully validated and demonstrated.

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arXiv2026

Radial velocity detection of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary system with SPIRou and NIRPS

The TRAPPIST-1 system is well-known for its seven transiting Earth-sized exoplanets. It has been extensively studied and characterized, notably with transit timing variations (TTVs) to precisely measure the mass of the planets. Using near-infrared spectroscopic observations obtained as part of the SPIRou Legacy Survey and the NIRPS Guaranteed Time Observation programs, we aimed to verify those values through radial velocity (RV) measurements of the system. Our RV analysis reveals that the current data do not have the precision required to individually detect the TRAPPIST-1 planets. However, we confidently detect ($Δ\ln\mathcal{Z}=7.53$, 1860:1 odds) the combined RV signature of the planets by informing their relative masses on the TTV analysis, with TRAPPIST-1 b as a proxy of the whole system. For the first time, the RV signal of the TRAPPIST-1 system is recovered: we find a RV semi-amplitude of $K_b=3.65^{+0.78}_{-0.83}$ m s$^{-1}$ corresponding to a planetary mass of $M_{p,\,b}=1.31\pm0.29$ M$_\oplus$, demonstrating that the RV measurements are consistent with the TTV model ($M_{p,\,b;\,\text{TTV}}=1.374\pm0.069$ M$_\oplus$). Additionally, the NIRPS RVs constrain the presence of giant planets beyond the snow line, excluding Saturn-mass planets out to 2.7-yr orbits and Neptune-mass objects out to 20 d. Through RV, we determined the stellar activity period to be of $3.22^{+0.22}_{-0.20}$ d. Its agreement with photometric measurements (K2 and TESS) confirms stellar rotation as the origin of the $\sim3.3$-d periodicity observed for TRAPPIST-1. We further investigated stellar activity with SPIRou polarimetric measurements, placing an upper limit on the longitudinal field ($|B_l|<40$ G, $3σ$). This limit is compatible with a weak multipolar large-scale magnetic geometry, as observed in some of the later-type rapidly rotating M dwarfs.

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arXiv2026

Beyond Five Scale Heights: Composition- and Cloud-dependent Ariel Tier-2 Requirements for sub-Neptunes

The Ariel Mission Candidate Sample (MCS) Tier-2 requirements provide a common screening reference by assuming a clear H$_2$/He atmosphere and a five-scale-height transmission signal. We quantify how those requirements change for 197 known planets with $1.5\leq R_{\rm p}/R_\oplus<4.0$ when composition and clouds are specified explicitly. Equilibrium-chemistry transmission spectra at $1\times$, $10\times$, and $100\times$ solar metallicity are evaluated for clear atmospheres and idealized 1-mbar cloud decks, binned to the 47 AIRS Tier-2 channels, and combined with target-specific MCS-calibrated noise curves. For each atmosphere, we calculate the number of transits required for a featureless spectrum to be rejected at a $3σ$ confidence in at least 90\% of repeated observations. The clear $1\times$-solar atmosphere closely follows the MCS prediction. At $10\times$ solar metallicity, stronger molecular opacity generally improves detectability, whereas at $100\times$ solar metallicity the increased mean molecular weight dominates and roughly doubles the required number of transits. Cloudy atmospheres follow the same non-monotonic trend but at substantially greater cost: the $1\times$-solar, 1-mbar case requires nearly an order of magnitude more transits than the MCS prediction, while the enriched cloudy cases still require several times more. Overall, in most atmospheric scenarios tested, small planets require more transits to robustly detect spectral features than listed in the MCS. A literature crossmatch further identifies Ariel targets with detected metastable helium, for which Tier-2 molecular spectra could connect lower-atmosphere composition and clouds to an extended, escaping H$_2$/He upper atmosphere.

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arXiv2026

Atmospheric Reconnaissance of TRAPPIST-1 f with JWST NIRISS SOSS: No Evidence for the Transit Light Source Effect

In just over three years of operation, JWST has observed all seven planets of the TRAPPIST-1 system. The two innermost planets were found to have little to no atmosphere, barring the presence of high-altitude aerosols. Here we present the first JWST transit spectra of the habitable-zone exoplanet TRAPPIST-1 f, which were obtained with NIRISS SOSS over the course of five transits. At least one stellar flare occurred in each visit, but unlike observations of closer-in TRAPPIST-1 planets, no evidence for contamination of the transit spectra from unocculted stellar surface heterogeneities was found. This non-detection does not guarantee the absence of unocculted heterogeneities in all future transit observations of this planet, and it could be explained by the transit chord of TRAPPIST-1 f having properties similar to the average, out-of-transit, visible stellar hemisphere at the time of observation. The transit spectra exhibit slopes ranging from -365 ppm/um down to 15 ppm/um, which we attribute to stellar variability, that is, flares and/or smaller-scale events. The visits least affected by flares rule out H2/He-dominated atmospheres with surface pressures higher than about 20 mbar at 95% confidence. For high-mean-molecular-mass atmospheres, the exact upper limits on surface pressures depend on the reduction pipeline and on the treatment of the residual slopes in the transit spectra.

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arXiv2026

Early Exploration of the Scientific Discovery Space for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) is a future NASA flagship mission concept identified by the Astro2020 Decadal Survey as the highest priority for large space missions. HWO should conduct "transformative astrophysics" and search for biosignatures in the atmospheres of approximately 25 potentially Earth-like planets. To further the early-stage development of HWO, NASA formed the Science, Technology, Architecture Review Team (START). In turn, START invited the scientific community to join working groups to explore the potential discovery space. In this paper, we present 70 science cases that resulted from this process. The cases address four scientific pillars: growth of galaxies (15 cases), evolution of the elements (13 cases), solar systems in context (32 cases), and living worlds (10 cases). Combined, they would address 27 of the 30 science questions and discovery areas identified by Astro2020. The 140 observing programs needed for the 70 investigations encompass a rich variety of spectroscopic (for 87% of science cases) and photometric (for 30%) observations extending from the UV to the NIR. Additionally, high-contrast and polarimetric capabilities would be needed for 34% and 27% of science cases, respectively. Access to UV wavelengths is critical: 83% of science cases need data at wavelengths <400 nm, and 26% extend to <100 nm. In the NIR, 26% of science cases need observations at wavelengths >=2000 nm. Pursuing the full portfolio of science would also necessitate precise astrometry for planet mass measurement, rapid response capabilities, a large instantaneous field of regard, non-sidereal tracking, saturation mitigation strategies, and high dynamic range.

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arXiv2026

A Pair of Warm Saturn-mass Planets near the 2:1 Mean Motion Resonance around TOI-3850

Warm Jupiters, with orbital periods of $10$--$200~\rm{days}$ and radii exceeding $8~R_{\oplus}$, are a relatively understudied class of exoplanets occupying the parameter space between hot Jupiters and more widely separated, colder Jupiter analogs. In this work, we report the detection of a multi-planet warm Jupiter system around TOI-3850 (TIC-143008050), a moderately active, near-solar metallicity G0 dwarf star observed by TESS in Sectors 15, 21, 41, 48 and 75. Initially, a single candidate planet was discovered by TESS, displaying transit timing variations (TTVs) with an amplitude of $\sim 1~\rm hr$ and a super-period of $513~\rm days$. Through a combination of transit photometry, radial velocity observations with MAROON-X, and TTV modeling, we identify two planets: TOI-3850 b $(P_b=14.484\pm0.002~\mathrm{days},~ M_b =112\pm20~M_{\oplus},~e_b = 0.018\pm0.008, R_b = 12.07\pm0.09~R_{\oplus}, ~T_{\rm{eq}}=841\pm10~\rm{K})$, a transiting warm Jupiter, and TOI-3850 c $(P_c=29.85\pm0.01~\mathrm{days},~ M_c =90\pm15~M_{\oplus},~e_c < 0.015, ~T_{\rm{eq}}=661\pm7~\rm{K})$, a non-transiting, Saturn-mass companion. The two planets lie wide of the 2:1 mean motion resonance $(P_c/P_b \approx 2.06)$, consistent with a formation history involving disk-driven migration. $N$-body integrations indicate that TOI-3850 c may begin to transit on decadal timescales, while TOI-3850 b remains a promising target for follow-up atmospheric characterization.

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arXiv2026

Balancing Variety and Sample Size: Optimal Parameter Sampling for Ariel Target Selection

Targeted astrophysical surveys are limited by the amount of telescope time available, which makes it impossible to observe every single object of interest. In order to maximize the scientific return, we need a well thought strategy for selecting the observational targets, in our case exoplanets. This study evaluates various strategies for selecting exoplanet targets within limited observation windows, focusing specifically on the selection of exoplanet targets for Tier 2 transit spectroscopy with ESA's upcoming Ariel mission. We define three distinct selection criteria -- sample size, variance, and leverage -- and translate them into objective functions compatible with modern optimization algorithms. Specifically, we test five heuristics for maximizing sample leverage: leverage greedy, simulated annealing, K-means clustering, regular classes, and quantile classes. The performance of these methods is demonstrated through three practical exercises across one, two, and three parameters of diversity. Each criterion represents a unique trade-off between sample size, diversity, and total observation time. While a time-greedy approach maximizes the quantity of planets, it fails to capture diversity. Conversely, variance-greedy selection prioritizes diversity but introduces significant drawbacks: it oversamples rare cases and undersamples typical planets, ultimately reducing the total number of targets observed. Leverage-based selections emerge as the most effective middle ground, successfully balancing sample diversity with a robust sample size. This work supports the broader community effort to ensure that Ariel delivers the most diverse and scientifically valuable sample of exoplanet atmospheres within mission limits.

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arXiv2026

The JWST weather report: Unravelling the atmospheric variability of isolated worlds using principal component analysis

Brown dwarf variability directly probes atmospheric dynamics beyond the Solar System, and recent JWST time-resolved spectroscopy has opened a new window into these processes. Principal component analysis (PCA) offers a data-driven framework to identify the dominant, independent patterns of spectral variability of variable targets without relying on prior atmospheric assumptions. SIMP 0136 is a young, T2.5, brown dwarf at the planetary-mass boundary, making it an ideal analogue for directly imaged exoplanets. We analysed one rotation of JWST/NIRSpec PRISM time-series spectroscopy to investigate the drivers of its variability using PCA. Two principal components are sufficient to reduce the residual spectra to the propagated noise floor, indicating that they capture the detectable coherent spectroscopic variability. The leading principal component captures broadband variability consistent with temperature changes, while the second traces chromatic variability linked to vertical cloud structure. The dominance of two components implies that the spectra can be described as mixtures of three distinct atmospheric states, whose relative contributions we mapped as a function of rotational phase. The observed spectra are described as evolving linear combinations of these states, indicating that the variability arises from the changing visibility of spatially distinct atmospheric regions. By projecting Sonora Diamondback forward models into the same principal component space, we found that the principal components capture a large fraction of the model variance, demonstrating that the same physical processes that govern SIMP-0136's observed variability also capture much of the model grid's variation. Our results establish PCA as a computationally efficient, physically interpretable framework for analysing JWST time-resolved spectroscopy of substellar atmospheres.

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arXiv2026

The breaking of cold traps and onset of titanium in ultra-hot Jupiter atmospheres: WASP-189b in context

Condensates are ubiquitous to all Solar System planets with significant ($>$10mbar) atmospheres. The same is true for most exoplanets with characterised atmospheres, with even ultra-hot exoplanets being able to form clouds on their cooler nightsides. One high-interest condensate is titanium, a highly refractory element that as an oxide (TiO) is a potent optical absorber long believed to be a driver of thermal inversions in highly irradiated exoplanet atmospheres. Observations have shown that some ultra-hot Jupiters have strong thermal inversions despite being significantly Ti-depleted, likely due to cold trapping, raising doubts about whether TiO is the main cause of their inverted temperature structures. Our aim was to retrieve the titanium-to-iron ratio of the dayside atmosphere of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-189b to determine whether the full titanium budget is accounted for in the gas phase. We analysed thermal emission observations of WASP-189b taken with the HARPS and NIRPS spectrographs using different atmospheric retrieval prescriptions to infer the planet's atmospheric thermal structure and composition. We observed Fe and Ti signals in cross-correlation and measured a sub-solar Ti/Fe ratio for WASP-189b using both free and chemical equilibrium retrieval approaches. We find the Ti/Fe of the planetary atmosphere to be between 28% and 81% (1-$σ$ bounds) that of the stellar value. The slight underabundance of Ti with respect to Fe on the dayside atmosphere of WASP-189b suggests that some titanium is missing from the gas phase, potentially due to a partial nightside cold trap. In the context of the ultra-hot Jupiter population, the onset of titanium in exoplanetary atmospheres appears to occur progressively, coinciding not with when thermal inversions begin but rather when the vapourisation threshold of titanium is reached on the nightside.

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arXiv2026

HERMES: HiERarchical Modelling for Exoplanet Science

ESA's Ariel Space Mission will characterise the atmospheres of approximately 1000 exoplanets to quantify population-level trends. We present HERMES (HiERarchical Modelling for Exoplanet Science), a multidimensional Bayesian framework that probes population-level correlations across multiple axes of diversity. The specific use case we present is the multidimensional relation between stellar metallicity, planetary mass, and atmospheric metallicity. Starting from the Ariel Mission Candidate Sample (Edwards & Tinetti 2022), we select confirmed planets with available masses and stellar metallicity, inject plausible multidimensional trends and demonstrate successful parameter recovery. Simulated surveys are generated with a variety of leverage and sample size, in the presence of intrinsic astrophysical scatter and measurement noise. By fitting independent Bayesian models to each survey, we confirm that survey leverage remains a reliable predictor of trend precision even in multiple dimensions and in the presence of intrinsic astrophysical scatter. For an Ariel Tier 2 transit survey of at least 400 planets, HERMES robustly recovers the correlation between stellar and planetary metallicity despite intrinsic scatter in planetary abundances as large as 1.2 dex. These results establish HERMES as a practical tool for survey design and science yield forecasting in preparation for Ariel and other surveys probing population-level trends.

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arXiv2026

Unraveling the Mystery of the Peculiar and Young Hot Jupiter CoRoT-2b. I. H$_2$O and CO Detection from Dayside Observations with Gemini-S/IGRINS

We present ground-based high-resolution spectroscopic pre-eclipse observations of the hot Jupiter CoRoT-2b obtained with the IGRINS spectrograph on Gemini South. Using cross-correlation analysis, we detect the Doppler-shifted signature of the planet's thermal emission with a signal-to-noise ratio of 4.32. Our independent analyses confirm the presence of H$_2$O with a confidence level of 2.6$σ$ and an abundance of log$_{10}$$-5.08^{+0.43}_{-0.43}$, as well as CO with 2.3$σ$ confidence and an abundance of log$_{10}$$-4.21^{+0.48}_{-0.81}$ in CoRoT-2b's atmosphere, using two fully independent data reduction and retrieval pipelines. No significant detections of CH$_4$, CO$_2$, TiO, or VO are reported. While our cross-correlation analysis tentatively suggests the presence of HCN and OH, retrieval analysis does not confirm these molecules. The detected H$_2$O and CO features indicate that CoRoT-2b's dayside spectrum is not featureless, as previously inferred from lower-resolution observations, but instead reveals a complex atmospheric structure. Interestingly, we find a lack of significant molecular features at wavelengths shorter than 1.7 $μm$, potentially due to high-altitude absorbers such as H$^-$, clouds, or observational systematics. From our retrieved abundances of CO and H$_2$O, we constrain a supersolar C/O ratio of $0.91^{+0.08}_{-0.17}$ and a subsolar metallicity. This study provides the first high-resolution constraints on the atmospheric composition of CoRoT-2b and serves as the foundation for future investigations into its peculiar westward hotspot offset. Further phase-resolved observations will be required to explore the underlying atmospheric dynamics in more detail.

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arXiv2026

The Days Drag On on WASP-121 b: Interpreting its NIRISS Spectroscopic Phase Curve with General Circulation Models

Ultra-hot Jupiters present extreme atmospheric phenomena not found in the Solar System. These planets' daysides experience strong temperature inversions, molecular species (including H2) dissociate, and magnetism disrupts their atmospheric circulation. On their nightsides H2 can recombine and clouds may form. Spectroscopic phase curves let us measure these spatially inhomogeneous conditions, which can then be interpreted with three-dimensional (3-D) models. In this work we compare the JWST/NIRISS spectroscopic phase curve of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-121 b to state-of-the-art 3-D models with varying modeling assumptions, including the aforementioned physical phenomena. We demonstrate the importance of accurately accounting for the planet's radius in comparison between data and models, as it changes the implied overall planetary emission. We find that the 3-D models predict planet emission $\sim$12% higher than observed, contributing to a continued tension between measured and predicted hot Jupiter albedos. We identify multiple pieces of evidence that confirm a strong source of drag operating in this planet's atmosphere. In addition, the nightside emission spectrum is devoid of strong absorption features, which may be best explained by nightside clouds. One feature of the dataset that is not matched by the 3-D models is a trend of increasing eastward phase offset with decreasing wavelength, for wavelengths shorter than $\sim$1.4 \textmu m. This result is not consistent with reflection from dayside clouds, nor can it be explained by removing atmospheric opacity sources. Our analysis highlights the complexities in generating 3-D models and interpreting observations of ultra-hot Jupiters in the JWST era.

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arXiv2026

Coupled orbital and interior structure evolution of lava planets

Lava planets likely did not form in their current orbits, instead migrating inward via orbital decay, which influenced the evolution of their magma oceans. We introduce a coupled thermal-orbital evolution model to explore how rocky planets migrate from the inner edge of the protoplanetary disk, with periods of 1-10 days, to orbital periods of less than a day. In our model, mantle melting is controlled by tidal heating and stellar flux, while orbits evolve via tidal migration. The mantle's tidal quality factor varies with its temperature and structure, creating a feedback loop between thermal evolution and orbital decay. We use our numerical model to simulate the migration of seven known lava planets: K2-141b, K2-360b, TOI-141b, TOI-431b, TOI-2431b, HD 3167b and GJ 367b. Migration occurs in two stages: an initial high-eccentricity stage reducing the semi-major axis by a factor of $\sim 2$, followed by a low-eccentricity stage reducing it by a factor of $\sim 5$. A successful migration from $\sim 0.1$ AU to a present-day orbit requires starting eccentricities $\ge 0.9$ and sustained eccentricity forcing with $e_{\mathrm{min}} \ge 10^{-2}$. The rate of migration depends on the state of the mantle: slow when mostly molten, fast when mostly solid. This pathway works for most lava planets, but not for TOI-431b or GJ-367b, suggesting that multiple migration pathways are possible for lava planets.

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arXiv2026

Super-Earth masses and stellar abundances from NIRPS reveal tentative evidence for water-rich formation around M dwarfs

Tracing the compositional link between terrestrial super-Earths and their host stars provides clues to their dominant formation pathway. By constraining the stellar abundances of refractory elements, we can predict the core mass fractions (CMFs) of their super-Earths. The level of agreement between this prediction and the planetary CMF derived from their masses and radii can reveal past formation processes, like mantle stripping and water-rich formation plus sequestration in the planet's core. Here, we present the first results from the Near Infrared Planet Searcher (NIRPS) GTO CMF subprogram: an intensive radial velocity campaign to refine masses and compute host stellar abundances of three hot super- Earths around M dwarfs (GJ 1132 b, GJ 1252 b, and LTT 3780 b), calculating masses of $1.69 \pm 0.15M_\oplus$, $1.54 \pm 0.18M_\oplus$, and $2.34 \pm 0.10M_\oplus$ respectively. We measure the CMFs of these and six further hot super-Earths with precise masses already available in the literature to 10-15% precision. We compare these to CMF predictions made from measuring the Fe, Mg, and Si abundances of their host stars measured from the NIRPS spectra. We find that the CMFs of these planets are smaller than expected from their host stellar abundances, to a statistically significant degree. This discrepancy is suggestive of significant reservoirs of water, and while these planets are too hot to harbor surface water, they likely have interior water mass fractions of $\sim$1%.

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arXiv2026

Mapping atmospheric features of the planetary-mass brown dwarf SIMP 0136 with JWST NIRISS

In this paper, we analyze James Webb Space Telescope Near Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph time-series spectroscopy data to characterize the atmosphere of the planetary-mass brown dwarf SIMP J01365662+093347. Principal component analysis reveals that 81\% of spectral variations can be described by two components, implying that variability within a single rotational phase is induced by at least three distinct spectral regions. By comparing our data to a grid of Sonora Diamondback atmospheric models, we confirm that the time-averaged spectrum cannot be explained by a single model but require a linear combination of at least three regions. Projecting these models onto the principal component plane shows that the overall variability is highly correlated with changes in temperature, cloud coverage, and possibly effective metallicity. We also extract brightness maps from the lightcurve and establish North-South asymmetry in the atmosphere. A combined multidimensional analysis of spectro-photometric variability links the three spectral regions to three atmospheric layers. Forsterite cloud and water abundance at each level form unique harmonics of atmospheric variability observed in different spectral bands. Atmospheric retrievals on the time-averaged spectrum are consistent with an optically thick iron cloud deck beneath a patchy forsterite cloud layer and with the overall adiabatic curve. We also demonstrate two new analysis methods: a regionally-resolved spectra retrieval that relies on multi-wavelength spherical harmonics maps, and a method to constrain brightness maps using Doppler information present in the spectra. Future observations of variable brown dwarfs of higher spectral resolution or spanning multiple rotations should help break mapping degeneracy.

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arXiv2026

TOI-4552 b: A new ultra-short period rocky world revealed by NIRPS and TESS

A particularly intriguing subclass of rocky exoplanets are the ultra-short period (USP) worlds that orbit their host stars in less than a day. These planets are particularly rare around M dwarf stars, with so far only ten that have a constrained mass and radius. We present the validation and characterization of the ultra-short period (0.3-days), Earth-sized planet TOI-4552b orbiting a nearby (27.26-pc away) M4.5V dwarf. Complementing the TESS photometry, ground-based transit observations from LCO, ExTrA and SPECULOOS validated the planetary radius and cleared the field of any contaminants. Speckle imaging with Zorro (Gemini-S) rules out false positive scenarios caused by eclipsing binary sources. Spectroscopic observations with NIRPS and HARPS were used to obtain stellar abundances, constrain the planetary mass, and, in conjunction with the transit observations, estimate the orbital parameters. TOI-4552 is a quiet star exhibiting no short-term stellar variations seen in photometric or radial velocity data that can be associated to stellar rotation. TOI-4552b ($M_p=1.83\pm0.47\,M_e$, $R_p=1.11\pm0.04\,R_e$) lies between the Earth-like and iron-rich composition tracks on the Mass-Radius diagram. The EXOPIE interior structure model, without constraints from refractory abundance ratio, yields a core mass fraction (CMF) of 0.54 and a bulk density of 7.74g/cm$^3$. Since the CMF spans a wide range due to the large uncertainty on the mass, the definitive interior composition cannot be determined with the current dataset. TOI-4552b hints as being marginally more iron-rich compared to the Earth but confirmation of its status requires additional, precise radial velocity measurements. Combined with its high emission spectroscopic metric (ESM=19.5), negligible stellar activity and short orbital period, TOI-4552b emerges as a compelling target for atmospheric and surface composition studies with JWST.

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