arXiv subjects

Nicolas B. Cowan

Publications and source records attributed to Nicolas B. Cowan.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

arXiv2015

Balancing the Energy Budget of Short-Period Giant Planets: Evidence for Reflective Clouds and Optical Absorbers

We consider fifty transiting short-period giant planets for which eclipse depths have been measured at multiple infrared wavelengths. The aggregate dayside emission spectrum of these planets exhibits no molecular features, nor is brightness temperature greater in the near-infrared. We combine brightness temperatures at various infrared wavelengths to estimate the dayside effective temperature of each planet. We find that dayside temperatures are proportional to irradiation temperatures, indicating modest Bond albedo and no internal energy sources, plus weak evidence that dayside temperatures of the hottest planets are disproportionately high. We place joint constraints on Bond albedo, $A_{B}$, and day-to-night transport efficiency, $\varepsilon$, for six planets by combining thermal eclipse and phase variation measurements (HD 149026b, HD 189733b, HD 209458b, WASP-12b, WASP-18b, and WASP-43b). We confirm that planets with high irradiation temperatures have low heat transport efficiency, and that WASP-43b has inexplicably poor transport; these results are statistically significant even if the precision of single-eclipse measurements has been overstated by a factor of three. Lastly, we attempt to break the $A_{B}$-$\varepsilon$ degeneracy for nine planets with both thermal and optical eclipse observations, but no thermal phase measurements. We find a systematic offset between Bond albedos inferred from thermal phase variations ($A_{B} \approx 0.35$) and geometric albedos extracted from visible light measurements ($A_{g} \approx 0.1$). These observations can be reconciled if most hot Jupiters have clouds that reflect 30-50 per cent of incident near-infrared radiation, as well as optical absorbers in the cloud particles or above the cloud deck.

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arXiv2015

The Feeding Zones of Terrestrial Planets and Insights into Moon Formation

[Abridged] We present an extensive suite of terrestrial planet formation simulations that allows quantitative analysis of the stochastic late stages of planet formation. We quantify the feeding zone width, Delta a, as the mass-weighted standard deviation of the initial semi-major axes of the planetary embryos and planetesimals that make up the final planet. The size of a planet's feeding zone in our simulations does not correlate with its final mass or semi-major axis, suggesting there is no systematic trend between a planet's mass and its volatile inventory. Instead, we find that the feeding zone of any planet more massive than 0.1M_Earth is roughly proportional to the radial extent of the initial disk from which it formed: Delta a~0.25(a_max-a_min), where a_min and a_max are the inner and outer edge of the initial planetesimal disk. These wide stochastic feeding zones have significant consequences for the origin of the Moon, since the canonical scenario predicts the Moon should be primarily composed of material from Earth's last major impactor (Theia), yet its isotopic composition is indistinguishable from Earth. In particular, we find that the feeding zones of Theia analogs are significantly more stochastic than the planetary analogs. Depending on our assumed initial distribution of oxygen isotopes within the planetesimal disk, we find a ~5% or less probability that the Earth and Theia will form with an isotopic difference equal to or smaller than the Earth and Moon's. In fact we predict that every planetary mass body should be expected to have a unique isotopic signature. In addition, we find paucities of massive Theia analogs and high velocity moon-forming collisions, two recently proposed explanations for the Moon's isotopic composition. Our work suggests that there is still no scenario for the Moon's origin that explains its isotopic composition with a high probability event.

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arXiv2014

Constraints on the Atmospheric Circulation and Variability of the Eccentric Hot Jupiter XO-3b

We report secondary eclipse photometry of the hot Jupiter XO-3b in the 4.5~$μ$m band taken with the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) on the Spitzer Space Telescope. We measure individual eclipse depths and center of eclipse times for a total of twelve secondary eclipses. We fit these data simultaneously with two transits observed in the same band in order to obtain a global best-fit secondary eclipse depth of $0.1580\pm 0.0036\%$ and a center of eclipse phase of $0.67004\pm 0.00013 $. We assess the relative magnitude of variations in the dayside brightness of the planet by measuring the size of the residuals during ingress and egress from fitting the combined eclipse light curve with a uniform disk model and place an upper limit of 0.05$\%$. The new secondary eclipse observations extend the total baseline from one and a half years to nearly three years, allowing us to place an upper limit on the periastron precession rate of $2.9\times 10^{-3}$ degrees/day the tightest constraint to date on the periastron precession rate of a hot Jupiter. We use the new transit observations to calculate improved estimates for the system properties, including an updated orbital ephemeris. We also use the large number of secondary eclipses to obtain the most stringent limits to date on the orbit-to-orbit variability of an eccentric hot Jupiter and demonstrate the consistency of multiple-epoch Spitzer observations.

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arXiv2014

The 4.5 $μ$m full-orbit phase curve of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b

The hot Jupiter HD 209458b is particularly amenable to detailed study as it is among the brightest transiting exoplanet systems currently known (V-mag = 7.65; K-mag = 6.308) and has a large planet-to-star contrast ratio. HD 209458b is predicted to be in synchronous rotation about its host star with a hot spot that is shifted eastward of the substellar point by superrotating equatorial winds. Here we present the first full-orbit observations of HD 209458b, in which its 4.5 $μ$m emission was recorded with $Spitzer$/IRAC. Our study revises the previous 4.5 $μ$m measurement of HD 209458b's secondary eclipse emission downward by $\sim$35% to $0.1391%^{+0.0072%}_{-0.0069%}$, changing our interpretation of the properties of its dayside atmosphere. We find that the hot spot on the planet's dayside is shifted eastward of the substellar point by $40.9^{\circ}\pm{6.0^{\circ}}$, in agreement with circulation models predicting equatorial superrotation. HD 209458b's dayside (T$_{bright}$ = 1499 $\pm$ 15 K) and nightside (T$_{bright}$ = 972 $\pm$ 44 K) emission indicates a day-to-night brightness temperature contrast smaller than that observed for more highly irradiated exoplanets, suggesting that the day-to-night temperature contrast may be partially a function of the incident stellar radiation. The observed phase curve shape deviates modestly from global circulation model predictions potentially due to disequilibrium chemistry or deficiencies in the current hot CH$_{4}$ line lists used in these models. Observations of the phase curve at additional wavelengths are needed in order to determine the possible presence and spatial extent of a dayside temperature inversion, as well as to improve our overall understanding of this planet's atmospheric circulation.

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arXiv2014

Atmospheric Characterization of the Hot Jupiter Kepler-13Ab

Kepler-13Ab (= KOI-13.01) is a unique transiting hot Jupiter. It is one of very few known short-period planets orbiting a hot A-type star, making it one of the hottest planets currently known. The availability of Kepler data allows us to measure the planet's occultation (secondary eclipse) and phase curve in the optical, which we combine with occultations observed by warm Spitzer at 4.5 mic and 3.6 mic and a ground-based occultation observation in the Ks band (2.1 mic). We derive a day-side hemisphere temperature of 2,750 +- 160 K as the effective temperature of a black body showing the same occultation depths. Comparing the occultation depths with one-dimensional planetary atmosphere models suggests the presence of an atmospheric temperature inversion. Our analysis shows evidence for a relatively high geometric albedo, Ag= 0.33 +0.04 -0.06. While measured with a simplistic method, a high Ag is supported also by the fact that the one-dimensional atmosphere models underestimate the occultation depth in the optical. We use stellar spectra to determine the dilution, in the four wide bands where occultation was measured, due to the visual stellar binary companion 1.15 +- 0.05" away. The revised stellar parameters measured using these spectra are combined with other measurements leading to revised planetary mass and radius estimates of Mp = 4.94 - 8.09 Mjup and Rp = 1.406 +- 0.038 Rjup. Finally, we measure a Kepler mid-occultation time that is 34.0 +- 6.9 s earlier than expected based on the mid-transit time and the delay due to light travel time, and discuss possible scenarios.

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arXiv2014

Water Cycling Between Ocean and Mantle: Super-Earths Need Not be Waterworlds

Large terrestrial planets are expected to have muted topography and deep oceans, implying that most super-Earths should be entirely covered in water, so-called waterworlds. This is important because waterworlds lack a silicate weathering thermostat so their climate is predicted to be less stable than that of planets with exposed continents. In other words, the continuously habitable zone for waterworlds is much narrower than for Earth-like planets. A planet's water is partitioned, however, between a surface reservoir, the ocean, and an interior reservoir, the mantle. Plate tectonics transports water between these reservoirs on geological timescales. Degassing of melt at mid-ocean ridges and serpentinization of oceanic crust depend negatively and positively on seafloor pressure, respectively, providing a stabilizing feedback on long-term ocean volume. Motivated by Earth's approximately steady-state deep water cycle, we develop a two-box model of the hydrosphere and derive steady-state solutions to the water partitioning on terrestrial planets. Critically, hydrostatic seafloor pressure is proportional to surface gravity, so super-Earths with a deep water cycle will tend to store more water in the mantle. We conclude that a tectonically active terrestrial planet of any mass can maintain exposed continents if its water mass fraction is less than ~0.2%, dramatically increasing the odds that super-Earths are habitable. The greatest source of uncertainty in our study is Earth's current mantle water inventory: the greater its value, the more robust planets are to inundation. Lastly, we discuss how future missions can test our hypothesis by mapping the oceans and continents of massive terrestrial planets.

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arXiv2013

Inference of Inhomogeneous Clouds in an Exoplanet Atmosphere

We present new visible and infrared observations of the hot Jupiter Kepler-7b to determine its atmospheric properties. Our analysis allows us to 1) refine Kepler-7b's relatively large geometric albedo of Ag=0.35+-0.02, 2) place upper limits on Kepler-7b thermal emission that remains undetected in both Spitzer bandpasses and 3) report a westward shift in the Kepler optical phase curve. We argue that Kepler-7b's visible flux cannot be due to thermal emission or Rayleigh scattering from H2 molecules. We therefore conclude that high altitude, optically reflective clouds located west from the substellar point are present in its atmosphere. We find that a silicate-based cloud composition is a possible candidate. Kepler-7b exhibits several properties that may make it particularly amenable to cloud formation in its upper atmosphere. These include a hot deep atmosphere that avoids a cloud cold trap, very low surface gravity to suppress cloud sedimentation, and a planetary equilibrium temperature in a range that allows for silicate clouds to potentially form in the visible atmosphere probed by Kepler. Our analysis does not only present evidence of optically thick clouds on Kepler-7b but also yields the first map of clouds in an exoplanet atmosphere.

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arXiv2013

Secondary Eclipse Photometry of the Exoplanet WASP-5b with Warm Spitzer

We present photometry of the extrasolar planet WASP-5b in the 3.6 and 4.5 micron bands taken with the Spitzer Space Telescope's Infrared Array Camera as part of the extended warm mission. By examining the depth of the planet's secondary eclipse at these two wavelengths, we can place joint constraints on the planet's atmospheric pressure-temperature profile and chemistry. We measure secondary eclipse depths of 0.197% +/- 0.028% and 0.227% +/- 0.025% in the 3.6 micron and 4.5 micron bands, respectively. Our observations are best matched by models showing a hot dayside and, depending on our choice of model, a weak thermal inversion or no inversion at all. We measure a mean offset from the predicted center of eclipse of 0.078 +/- 0.032 hours, translating to ecos(omega) = 0.0031 +/- 0.0013 and consistent with a circular orbit. We see no evidence for any eclipse timing variations comparable to those reported in a previous transit study.

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arXiv2013

Stabilizing Cloud Feedback Dramatically Expands the Habitable Zone of Tidally Locked Planets

The habitable zone (HZ) is the circumstellar region where a planet can sustain surface liquid water. Searching for terrestrial planets in the HZ of nearby stars is the stated goal of ongoing and planned extrasolar planet surveys. Previous estimates of the inner edge of the HZ were based on one-dimensional radiative-convective models. The most serious limitation of these models is the inability to predict cloud behavior. Here we use global climate models with sophisticated cloud schemes to show that due to a stabilizing cloud feedback, tidally locked planets can be habitable at twice the stellar flux found by previous studies. This dramatically expands the HZ and roughly doubles the frequency of habitable planets orbiting red dwarf stars. At high stellar flux, strong convection produces thick water clouds near the substellar location that greatly increase the planetary albedo and reduce surface temperatures. Higher insolation produces stronger substellar convection and therefore higher albedo, making this phenomenon a stabilizing climate feedback. Substellar clouds also effectively block outgoing radiation from the surface, reducing or even completely reversing the thermal emission contrast between dayside and nightside. The presence of substellar water clouds and the resulting clement surface conditions will therefore be detectable with the James Webb Space Telescope.

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arXiv2013

Lightcurves of Stars & Exoplanets: Estimating Inclination, Obliquity, and Albedo

[Abridged] Distant stars and planets will remain spatially unresolved for the foreseeable future. It is nonetheless possible to infer aspects of their brightness markings and viewing geometries by analyzing disk-integrated rotational and orbital brightness variations. We compute the harmonic lightcurves, F_l^m(t), resulting from spherical harmonic maps of intensity or albedo, Y_l^m(theta,phi), where l and m are the total and longitudinal order. Notably, odd m>1 are present in an inclined lightcurve, but not seen by an equatorial observer. We therefore suggest that the Fourier spectrum of a thermal lightcurve may be sufficient to determine the orbital inclination of non-transiting short-period planets, the rotational inclination of stars and brown dwarfs, and the obliquity of directly imaged planets. In the best-case scenario of a nearly edge-on geometry, measuring the m=3 mode of a star's rotational lightcurve to within a factor of two provides an inclination estimate good to +/- 6 degrees, assuming stars have randomly distributed spots. Alternatively, if stars have brightness maps perfectly symmetric about the equator, their lightcurves will have no m=3 power, regardless of orientation. In general, inclination estimates will remain qualitative until detailed hydrodynamic simulations and/or occultation maps can be used as a calibrator. We further derive harmonic reflected lightcurves for tidally-locked planets; these are higher-order versions of the well-known Lambert phase curve. We show that a non-uniform planet may have an apparent albedo 25% lower than its intrinsic albedo, even if it exhibits precisely Lambertian phase variations. Lastly, we provide low-order analytic expressions for harmonic lightcurves that can be used for fitting observed photometry; as a general rule, edge-on solutions cannot simply be scaled by sin(i) to mimic inclined lightcurves.

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arXiv2013

Warm Spitzer Photometry of Three Hot Jupiters: HAT-P-3b, HAT-P-4b and HAT-P-12b

We present Warm Spitzer/IRAC secondary eclipse time series photometry of three short-period transiting exoplanets, HAT-P-3b, HAT-P-4b and HAT-P-12b, in both the available 3.6 and 4.5 micron bands. HAT-P-3b and HAT-P-4b are Jupiter-mass, objects orbiting an early K and an early G dwarf stars, respectively. For HAT-P-3b we find eclipse depths of 0.112%+0.015%-0.030% (3.6 micron) and 0.094%+0.016%-0.009% (4.5 micron). The HAT-P-4b values are 0.142%+0.014%-0.016% (3.6 micron) and 0.122%+0.012%-0.014% (4.5micron). The two planets' photometry is consistent with inefficient heat redistribution from their day to night sides (and low albedos), but it is inconclusive about possible temperature inversions in their atmospheres. HAT-P-12b is a Saturn-mass planet and is one of the coolest planets ever observed during secondary eclipse, along with hot Neptune GJ 436b and hot Saturn WASP-29b. We are able to place 3$σ$ upper limits on the secondary eclipse depth of HAT-P-12b in both wavelengths: < 0.042% (3.6 micron) and <0.085% (4.5 micron). We discuss these results in the context of the {\it Spitzer} secondary eclipse measurements of GJ 436b and WASP-29b. It is possible that we do not detect the eclipses of HAT-P-12b due to high eccentricity, but find that weak planetary emission in these wavelengths is a more likely explanation. We place 3 sigma upper limits on the |e cos(omega)| quantity (where e is eccentricity and omega is the argument of periapsis) for HAT-P-3b (<0.0081) and HAT-P-4b (<0.0042), based on the secondary eclipse timings.

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arXiv2013

Orbital Phase Variations of the Eccentric Giant Planet HAT-P-2b

We present the first secondary eclipse and phase curve observations for the highly eccentric hot Jupiter HAT-P-2b in the 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, and 8.0 μm bands of the Spitzer Space Telescope. The 3.6 and 4.5 μm data sets span an entire orbital period of HAT-P-2b, making them the longest continuous phase curve observations obtained to date and the first full-orbit observations of a planet with an eccentricity exceeding 0.2. We present an improved non-parametric method for removing the intrapixel sensitivity variations in Spitzer data at 3.6 and 4.5 μm that robustly maps position-dependent flux variations. We find that the peak in planetary flux occurs at 4.39+/-0.28, 5.84+/-0.39, and 4.68+/-0.37 hours after periapse passage with corresponding maxima in the planet/star flux ratio of 0.1138%+/-0.0089%, 0.1162%+/-0.0080%, and 0.1888%+/-0.0072% in the 3.6, 4.5, and 8.0 μm bands respectively. We compare our measured secondary eclipse depths to the predictions from a one-dimensional radiative transfer model, which suggests the possible presence of a transient day side inversion in HAT-P-2b's atmosphere near periapse. We also derive improved estimates for the system parameters, including its mass, radius, and orbital ephemeris. Our simultaneous fit to the transit, secondary eclipse, and radial velocity data allows us to determine the eccentricity and argument of periapse of HAT-P-2b's orbit with a greater precision than has been achieved for any other eccentric extrasolar planet. We also find evidence for a long-term linear trend in the radial velocity data. This trend suggests the presence of another substellar companion in the HAT-P-2 system, which could have caused HAT-P-2b to migrate inward to its present-day orbit via the Kozai mechanism.

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arXiv2013

Determining Reflectance Spectra of Surfaces and Clouds on Exoplanets

Planned missions will spatially resolve temperate terrestrial planets from their host star. Although reflected light from such a planet encodes information about its surface, it has not been shown how to establish surface characteristics of a planet without assuming known surfaces to begin with. We present a re-analysis of disk-integrated, time-resolved, multiband photometry of Earth obtained by the Deep Impact spacecraft as part of the EPOXI Mission of Opportunity. We extract reflectance spectra of clouds, ocean and land without a priori knowledge of the numbers or colors of these surfaces. We show that the inverse problem of extracting surface spectra from such data is a novel and extreme instance of spectral unmixing, a well-studied problem in remote sensing. Principal component analysis is used to determine an appropriate number of model surfaces with which to interpret the data. Shrink-wrapping a simplex to the color excursions of the planet yields a conservative estimate of the planet's endmember spectra. The resulting surface maps are unphysical, however, requiring negative or larger-than-unity surface coverage at certain locations. Our "rotational unmixing" supersedes the endmember analysis by simultaneously solving for the surface spectra and their geographical distributions on the planet, under the assumption of diffuse reflection and known viewing geometry. We use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to determine best-fit parameters and their uncertainties. The resulting albedo spectra are similar to clouds, ocean and land seen through a Rayleigh-scattering atmosphere. This study suggests that future direct-imaging efforts could identify and map unknown surfaces and clouds on exoplanets.

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arXiv2012

Indication of insensitivity of planetary weathering behavior and habitable zone to surface land fraction

It is likely that unambiguous habitable zone terrestrial planets of unknown water content will soon be discovered. Water content helps determine surface land fraction, which influences planetary weathering behavior. This is important because the silicate weathering feedback determines the width of the habitable zone in space and time. Here a low-order model of weathering and climate, useful for gaining qualitative understanding, is developed to examine climate evolution for planets of various land-ocean fractions. It is pointed out that, if seafloor weathering does not depend directly on surface temperature, there can be no weathering-climate feedback on a waterworld. This would dramatically narrow the habitable zone of a waterworld. Results from our model indicate that weathering behavior does not depend strongly on land fraction for partially ocean-covered planets. This is powerful because it suggests that previous habitable zone theory is robust to changes in land fraction, as long as there is some land. Finally, a mechanism is proposed for a waterworld to prevent complete water loss during a moist greenhouse through rapid weathering of exposed continents. This process is named a "waterworld self-arrest," and it implies that waterworlds can go through a moist greenhouse stage and end up as planets like Earth with partial ocean coverage. This work stresses the importance of surface and geologic effects, in addition to the usual incident stellar flux, for habitability.

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arXiv2012

Thermal Phases of Earth-Like Planets: Estimating Thermal Inertia from Eccentricity, Obliquity, and Diurnal Forcing

In order to understand the climate on terrestrial planets orbiting nearby Sun-like stars, one would like to know their thermal inertia. We use a global climate model to simulate the thermal phase variations of Earth-analogs and test whether these data could distinguish between planets with different heat storage and heat transport characteristics. In particular, we consider a temperate climate with polar ice caps (like modern Earth), and a snowball state where the oceans are globally covered in ice. We first quantitatively study the periodic radiative forcing from, and climatic response to, rotation, obliquity, and eccentricity. Orbital eccentricity and seasonal changes in albedo cause variations in the global-mean absorbed flux. The responses of the two climates to these global seasons indicate that the temperate planet has 3 times the bulk heat capacity of the snowball planet due to the presence of liquid water oceans. The temperate obliquity seasons are weaker than one would expect based on thermal inertia alone; this is due to cross-equatorial oceanic and atmospheric energy transport. Thermal inertia and cross-equatorial heat transport have qualitatively different effects on obliquity seasons, insofar as heat transport tends to reduce seasonal amplitude without inducing a phase lag. For an Earth-like planet, however, this effect is masked by the mixing of signals from low thermal inertia regions (sea ice and land) with that from high thermal inertia regions (oceans), which also produces a damped response with small phase lag. We then simulate thermal lightcurves as they would appear to a high-contrast imaging mission (TPF-I/Darwin) and consider the inverse problem of estimating thermal inertia based solely on time-resolved photometry. [Abridged]

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arXiv2012

3.6 and 4.5 Micron Phase Curves and Evidence for Non-Equilibrium Chemistry in the Atmosphere of Extrasolar Planet HD 189733b

We present new, full-orbit observations of the infrared phase variations of the canonical hot Jupiter HD 189733b obtained in the 3.6 and 4.5 micron bands using the Spitzer Space Telescope. When combined with previous phase curve observations at 8.0 and 24 micron, these data allow us to characterize the exoplanet's emission spectrum as a function of planetary longitude. We utilize improved methods for removing the effects of intrapixel sensitivity variations and accounting for the presence of time-correlated noise in our data. We measure a phase curve amplitude of 0.1242% +/- 0.0061% in the 3.6 micron band and 0.0982% +/- 0.0089% in the 4.5 micron band. We find that the times of minimum and maximum flux occur several hours earlier than predicted for an atmosphere in radiative equilibrium, consistent with the eastward advection of gas by an equatorial super-rotating jet. The locations of the flux minima in our new data differ from our previous observations at 8 micron, and we present new evidence indicating that the flux minimum observed in the 8 micron is likely caused by an over-shooting effect in the 8 micron array. We obtain improved estimates for HD 189733b's dayside planet-star flux ratio of 0.1466% +/- 0.0040% at 3.6 micron and 0.1787% +/- 0.0038% at 4.5 micron; these are the most accurate secondary eclipse depths obtained to date for an extrasolar planet. We compare our new dayside and nightside spectra for HD 189733b to the predictions of models from Burrows et al. (2008) and Showman et al. (2009). We find that HD 189733b's 4.5 micron nightside flux is 3.3 sigma smaller than predicted by the Showman et al. models, which assume that the chemistry is in local thermal equilibrium. We conclude that this discrepancy is best-explained by vertical mixing, which should lead to an excess of CO and correspondingly enhanced 4.5 micron absorption in this region. [abridged]

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arXiv2012

Measures of Galaxy Environment - I. What is "Environment"?

The influence of a galaxy's environment on its evolution has been studied and compared extensively in the literature, although differing techniques are often used to define environment. Most methods fall into two broad groups: those that use nearest neighbours to probe the underlying density field and those that use fixed apertures. The differences between the two inhibit a clean comparison between analyses and leave open the possibility that, even with the same data, different properties are actually being measured. In this work we apply twenty published environment definitions to a common mock galaxy catalogue constrained to look like the local Universe. We find that nearest neighbour-based measures best probe the internal densities of high-mass haloes, while at low masses the inter-halo separation dominates and acts to smooth out local density variations. The resulting correlation also shows that nearest neighbour galaxy environment is largely independent of dark matter halo mass. Conversely, aperture-based methods that probe super-halo scales accurately identify high-density regions corresponding to high mass haloes. Both methods show how galaxies in dense environments tend to be redder, with the exception of the largest apertures, but these are the strongest at recovering the background dark matter environment. We also warn against using photometric redshifts to define environment in all but the densest regions. When considering environment there are two regimes: the 'local environment' internal to a halo best measured with nearest neighbour and 'large-scale environment' external to a halo best measured with apertures. This leads to the conclusion that there is no universal environment measure and the most suitable method depends on the scale being probed.

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arXiv2012

A False Positive For Ocean Glint on Exoplanets: the Latitude-Albedo Effect

Identifying liquid water on the surface of planets is a high priority, as this traditionally defines habitability. One proposed signature of oceans is specular reflection ("glint"), which increases the apparent albedo of a planet at crescent phases. We post-process a global climate model of an Earth-like planet to simulate reflected lightcurves. Significantly, we obtain glint-like phase variations even though we do not include specular reflection in our model. This false positive is the product of two generic properties: 1) for modest obliquities, a planet's poles receive less orbit-averaged stellar flux than its equator, so the poles are more likely to be covered in highly reflective snow and ice, and 2) we show that reflected light from a modest-obliquity planet at crescent phases probes higher latitudes than at gibbous phases, therefore a planet's apparent albedo will naturally increase at crescent phase. We suggest that this "latitude-albedo effect" will operate even for large obliquities: in that case the equator receives less orbit-averaged flux than the poles, and the equator is preferentially sampled at crescent phase. Using rotational and orbital color variations to map the surfaces of directly imaged planets and estimate their obliquity will therefore be a necessary pre-condition for properly interpreting their reflected phase variations. The latitude-albedo effect is a particularly convincing glint false positive for zero-obliquity planets, and such worlds are not amenable to latitudinal mapping. This effect severely limits the utility of specular reflection for detecting oceans on exoplanets.

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