arXiv subjects

Nicolas Gast

Publications and source records attributed to Nicolas Gast.

35 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Asymptotic Degradation of Linear Regression Estimates With Strategic Data Sources

We consider the problem of linear regression from strategic data sources with a public good component, i.e., when data is provided by strategic agents who seek to minimize an individual provision cost for increasing their data's precision while benefiting from the model's overall precision. In contrast to previous works, our model tackles the case where there is uncertainty on the attributes characterizing the agents' data -- a critical aspect of the problem when the number of agents is large. We provide a characterization of the game's equilibrium, which reveals an interesting connection with optimal design. Subsequently, we focus on the asymptotic behavior of the covariance of the linear regression parameters estimated via generalized least squares as the number of data sources becomes large. We provide upper and lower bounds for this covariance matrix and we show that, when the agents' provision costs are superlinear, the model's covariance converges to zero but at a slower rate relative to virtually all learning problems with exogenous data. On the other hand, if the agents' provision costs are linear, this covariance fails to converge. This shows that even the basic property of consistency of generalized least squares estimators is compromised when the data sources are strategic.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

On Fair Selection in the Presence of Implicit and Differential Variance

Discrimination in selection problems such as hiring or college admission is often explained by implicit bias from the decision maker against disadvantaged demographic groups. In this paper, we consider a model where the decision maker receives a noisy estimate of each candidate's quality, whose variance depends on the candidate's group -- we argue that such differential variance is a key feature of many selection problems. We analyze two notable settings: in the first, the noise variances are unknown to the decision maker who simply picks the candidates with the highest estimated quality independently of their group; in the second, the variances are known and the decision maker picks candidates having the highest expected quality given the noisy estimate. We show that both baseline decision makers yield discrimination, although in opposite directions: the first leads to underrepresentation of the low-variance group while the second leads to underrepresentation of the high-variance group. We study the effect on the selection utility of imposing a fairness mechanism that we term the $γ$-rule (it is an extension of the classical four-fifths rule and it also includes demographic parity). In the first setting (with unknown variances), we prove that under mild conditions, imposing the $γ$-rule increases the selection utility -- here there is no trade-off between fairness and utility. In the second setting (with known variances), imposing the $γ$-rule decreases the utility but we prove a bound on the utility loss due to the fairness mechanism.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Mean Field and Refined Mean Field Approximations for Heterogeneous Systems: It Works!

Mean field approximation is a powerful technique to study the performance of large stochastic systems represented as $n$ interacting objects. Applications include load balancing models, epidemic spreading, cache replacement policies, or large-scale data centers. Mean field approximation is asymptotically exact for systems composed of $n$ homogeneous objects under mild conditions. In this paper, we study what happens when objects are heterogeneous. This can represent servers with different speeds or contents with different popularities. We define an interaction model that allows obtaining asymptotic convergence results for stochastic systems with heterogeneous object behavior, and show that the error of the mean field approximation is of order $O(1/n)$. More importantly, we show how to adapt the refined mean field approximation, developed by Gast et al. 2019, and show that the error of this approximation is reduced to $O(1/n^2)$. To illustrate the applicability of our result, we present two examples. The first addresses a list-based cache replacement model RANDOM($m$), which is an extension of the RANDOM policy. The second is a heterogeneous supermarket model. These examples show that the proposed approximations are computationally tractable and very accurate. They also show that for moderate system sizes ($n\approx30$) the refined mean field approximation tends to be more accurate than simulations for any reasonable simulation time.

cs.PF↗

arXiv2020

Exponential Convergence Rate for the Asymptotic Optimality of Whittle Index Policy

We evaluate the performance of Whittle index policy for restless Markovian bandits, when the number of bandits grows. It is proven in [30] that this performance is asymptotically optimal if the bandits are indexable and the associated deterministic system has a global attractor fixed point. In this paper we show that, under the same conditions, the convergence rate is exponential in the number of bandits, unless the fixed point is singular (to be defined later). Our proof is based on the nature of the deterministic equation governing the stochastic system: We show that it is a piecewise affine continuous dynamical system inside the simplex of the empirical measure of the bandits. Using simulations and numerical solvers, we also investigate the cases where the conditions for the exponential rate theorem are violated, notably when attracting limit cycles appear, or when the fixed point is singular. We illustrate our theorem on a Markovian fading channel model, which has been well studied in the literature. Finally, we extend our synchronous model results to the asynchronous model.

cs.PF↗

arXiv2020

On Fair Selection in the Presence of Implicit Variance

Quota-based fairness mechanisms like the so-called Rooney rule or four-fifths rule are used in selection problems such as hiring or college admission to reduce inequalities based on sensitive demographic attributes. These mechanisms are often viewed as introducing a trade-off between selection fairness and utility. In recent work, however, Kleinberg and Raghavan showed that, in the presence of implicit bias in estimating candidates' quality, the Rooney rule can increase the utility of the selection process. We argue that even in the absence of implicit bias, the estimates of candidates' quality from different groups may differ in another fundamental way, namely, in their variance. We term this phenomenon implicit variance and we ask: can fairness mechanisms be beneficial to the utility of a selection process in the presence of implicit variance (even in the absence of implicit bias)? To answer this question, we propose a simple model in which candidates have a true latent quality that is drawn from a group-independent normal distribution. To make the selection, a decision maker receives an unbiased estimate of the quality of each candidate, with normal noise, but whose variance depends on the candidate's group. We then compare the utility obtained by imposing a fairness mechanism that we term $γ$-rule (it includes demographic parity and the four-fifths rule as special cases), to that of a group-oblivious selection algorithm that picks the candidates with the highest estimated quality independently of their group. Our main result shows that the demographic parity mechanism always increases the selection utility, while any $γ$-rule weakly increases it. We extend our model to a two-stage selection process where the true quality is observed at the second stage. We discuss multiple extensions of our results, in particular to different distributions of the true latent quality.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Refined Mean Field Analysis of the Gossip Shuffle Protocol -- extended version --

Gossip protocols form the basis of many smart collective adaptive systems. They are a class of fully decentralised, simple but robust protocols for the distribution of information throughout large scale networks with hundreds or thousands of nodes. Mean field analysis methods have made it possible to approximate and analyse performance aspects of such large scale protocols in an efficient way. Taking the gossip shuffle protocol as a benchmark, we evaluate a recently developed refined mean field approach. We illustrate the gain in accuracy this can provide for the analysis of medium size models analysing two key performance measures. We also show that refined mean field analysis requires special attention to correctly capture the coordination aspects of the gossip shuffle protocol.

cs.PF↗

arXiv2019

Linear Regression from Strategic Data Sources

Linear regression is a fundamental building block of statistical data analysis. It amounts to estimating the parameters of a linear model that maps input features to corresponding outputs. In the classical setting where the precision of each data point is fixed, the famous Aitken/Gauss-Markov theorem in statistics states that generalized least squares (GLS) is a so-called "Best Linear Unbiased Estimator" (BLUE). In modern data science, however, one often faces strategic data sources, namely, individuals who incur a cost for providing high-precision data. In this paper, we study a setting in which features are public but individuals choose the precision of the outputs they reveal to an analyst. We assume that the analyst performs linear regression on this dataset, and individuals benefit from the outcome of this estimation. We model this scenario as a game where individuals minimize a cost comprising two components: (a) an (agent-specific) disclosure cost for providing high-precision data; and (b) a (global) estimation cost representing the inaccuracy in the linear model estimate. In this game, the linear model estimate is a public good that benefits all individuals. We establish that this game has a unique non-trivial Nash equilibrium. We study the efficiency of this equilibrium and we prove tight bounds on the price of stability for a large class of disclosure and estimation costs. Finally, we study the estimator accuracy achieved at equilibrium. We show that, in general, Aitken's theorem does not hold under strategic data sources, though it does hold if individuals have identical disclosure costs (up to a multiplicative factor). When individuals have non-identical costs, we derive a bound on the improvement of the equilibrium estimation cost that can be achieved by deviating from GLS, under mild assumptions on the disclosure cost functions.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2019

Discrete Mean Field Games: Existence of Equilibria and Convergence

We consider mean field games with discrete state spaces (called discrete mean field games in the following) and we analyze these games in continuous and discrete time, over finite as well as infinite time horizons. We prove the existence of a mean field equilibrium assuming continuity of the cost and of the drift. These conditions are more general than the existing papers studying finite state space mean field games. Besides, we also study the convergence of the equilibria of N -player games to mean field equilibria in our four settings. On the one hand, we define a class of strategies in which any sequence of equilibria of the finite games converges weakly to a mean field equilibrium when the number of players goes to infinity. On the other hand, we exhibit equilibria outside this class that do not converge to mean field equilibria and for which the value of the game does not converge. In discrete time this non-convergence phenomenon implies that the Folk theorem does not scale to the mean field limit.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

The Price of Local Fairness in Multistage Selection

The rise of algorithmic decision making led to active researches on how to define and guarantee fairness, mostly focusing on one-shot decision making. In several important applications such as hiring, however, decisions are made in multiple stage with additional information at each stage. In such cases, fairness issues remain poorly understood. In this paper we study fairness in $k$-stage selection problems where additional features are observed at every stage. We first introduce two fairness notions, local (per stage) and global (final stage) fairness, that extend the classical fairness notions to the $k$-stage setting. We propose a simple model based on a probabilistic formulation and show that the locally and globally fair selections that maximize precision can be computed via a linear program. We then define the price of local fairness to measure the loss of precision induced by local constraints; and investigate theoretically and empirically this quantity. In particular, our experiments show that the price of local fairness is generally smaller when the sensitive attribute is observed at the first stage; but globally fair selections are more locally fair when the sensitive attribute is observed at the second stage---hence in both cases it is often possible to have a selection that has a small price of local fairness and is close to locally fair.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

A refined mean field approximation of synchronous discrete-time population models

Mean field approximation is a popular method to study the behaviour of stochastic models composed of a large number of interacting objects. When the objects are asynchronous, the mean field approximation of a population model can be expressed as an ordinary differential equation. When the objects are (clock-) synchronous the mean field approximation is a discrete time dynamical system. We focus on the latter.We study the accuracy of mean field approximation when this approximation is a discrete-time dynamical system. We extend a result that was shown for the continuous time case and we prove that expected performance indicators estimated by mean field approximation are $O(1/N)$-accurate. We provide simple expressions to effectively compute the asymptotic error of mean field approximation, for finite time-horizon and steady-state, and we use this computed error to propose what we call a \emph{refined} mean field approximation. We show, by using a few numerical examples, that this technique improves the quality of approximation compared to the classical mean field approximation, especially for relatively small population sizes.

cs.PF↗

arXiv2018

A new analysis of Work Stealing with latency

We study in this paper the impact of communication latency on the classical Work Stealing load balancing algorithm. Our paper extends the reference model in which we introduce a latency parameter. By using a theoretical analysis and simulation, we study the overall impact of this latency on the Makespan (maximum completion time). We derive a new expression of the expected running time of a bag of tasks scheduled by Work Stealing. This expression enables us to predict under which conditions a given run will yield acceptable performance. For instance, we can easily calibrate the maximal number of processors to use for a given work/platform combination. All our results are validated through simulation on a wide range of parameters.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2014

Incentives and Redistribution in Homogeneous Bike-Sharing Systems with Stations of Finite Capacity

Bike-sharing systems are becoming important for urban transportation. In such systems, users arrive at a station, take a bike and use it for a while, then return it to another station of their choice. Each station has a finite capacity: it cannot host more bikes than its capacity. We propose a stochastic model of an homogeneous bike-sharing system and study the effect of users random choices on the number of problematic stations, i.e., stations that, at a given time, have no bikes available or no available spots for bikes to be returned to. We quantify the influence of the station capacities, and we compute the fleet size that is optimal in terms of minimizing the proportion of problematic stations. Even in a homogeneous city, the system exhibits a poor performance: the minimal proportion of problematic stations is of the order of (but not lower than) the inverse of the capacity. We show that simple incentives, such as suggesting users to return to the least loaded station among two stations, improve the situation by an exponential factor. We also compute the rate at which bikes have to be redistributed by trucks to insure a given quality of service. This rate is of the order of the inverse of the station capacity. For all cases considered, the fleet size that corresponds to the best performance is half of the total number of spots plus a few more, the value of the few more can be computed in closed-form as a function of the system parameters. It corresponds to the average number of bikes in circulation.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2011

Decentralized List Scheduling

Classical list scheduling is a very popular and efficient technique for scheduling jobs in parallel and distributed platforms. It is inherently centralized. However, with the increasing number of processors, the cost for managing a single centralized list becomes too prohibitive. A suitable approach to reduce the contention is to distribute the list among the computational units: each processor has only a local view of the work to execute. Thus, the scheduler is no longer greedy and standard performance guarantees are lost. The objective of this work is to study the extra cost that must be paid when the list is distributed among the computational units. We first present a general methodology for computing the expected makespan based on the analysis of an adequate potential function which represents the load unbalance between the local lists. We obtain an equation on the evolution of the potential by computing its expected decrease in one step of the schedule. Our main theorem shows how to solve such equations to bound the makespan. Then, we apply this method to several scheduling problems, namely, for unit independent tasks, for weighted independent tasks and for tasks with precendence constraints. More precisely, we prove that the time for scheduling a global workload W composed of independent unit tasks on m processors is equal to W/m plus an additional term proportional to log_2 W. We provide a lower bound which shows that this is optimal up to a constant. This result is extended to the case of weighted independent tasks. In the last setting, precedence task graphs, our analysis leads to an improvement on the bound of Arora et al. We finally provide some experiments using a simulator. The distribution of the makespan is shown to fit existing probability laws. The additive term is shown by simulation to be around 3 \log_2 W confirming the tightness of our analysis.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2011

Computing hitting times via fluid approximation: application to the coupon collector problem

In this paper, we show how to use stochastic approximation to compute hitting time of a stochastic process, based on the study of the time for a fluid approximation of this process to be at distance 1/N of its fixed point. This approach is developed to study a generalized version of the coupon collector problem. The system is composed by N independent identical Markov chains. At each time step, one Markov chain is picked at random and performs one transition. We show that the time at which all chains have hit the same state is bounded by a N log N + b N log log N + O(N) where a and b are two constants depending on eigenvalues of the Markov chain.

math.PR↗

arXiv2011

Mean field for Markov Decision Processes: from Discrete to Continuous Optimization

We study the convergence of Markov Decision Processes made of a large number of objects to optimization problems on ordinary differential equations (ODE). We show that the optimal reward of such a Markov Decision Process, satisfying a Bellman equation, converges to the solution of a continuous Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation based on the mean field approximation of the Markov Decision Process. We give bounds on the difference of the rewards, and a constructive algorithm for deriving an approximating solution to the Markov Decision Process from a solution of the HJB equations. We illustrate the method on three examples pertaining respectively to investment strategies, population dynamics control and scheduling in queues are developed. They are used to illustrate and justify the construction of the controlled ODE and to show the gain obtained by solving a continuous HJB equation rather than a large discrete Bellman equation.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2009

A Mean Field Approach for Optimization in Particles Systems and Applications

This paper investigates the limit behavior of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) made of independent particles evolving in a common environment, when the number of particles goes to infinity. In the finite horizon case or with a discounted cost and an infinite horizon, we show that when the number of particles becomes large, the optimal cost of the system converges almost surely to the optimal cost of a discrete deterministic system (the ``optimal mean field''). Convergence also holds for optimal policies. We further provide insights on the speed of convergence by proving several central limits theorems for the cost and the state of the Markov decision process with explicit formulas for the variance of the limit Gaussian laws. Then, our framework is applied to a brokering problem in grid computing. The optimal policy for the limit deterministic system is computed explicitly. Several simulations with growing numbers of processors are reported. They compare the performance of the optimal policy of the limit system used in the finite case with classical policies (such as Join the Shortest Queue) by measuring its asymptotic gain as well as the threshold above which it starts outperforming classical policies.

math.PR↗

arXiv2008

Distributing Labels on Infinite Trees

Sturmian words are infinite binary words with many equivalent definitions: They have a minimal factor complexity among all aperiodic sequences; they are balanced sequences (the labels 0 and 1 are as evenly distributed as possible) and they can be constructed using a mechanical definition. All this properties make them good candidates for being extremal points in scheduling problems over two processors. In this paper, we consider the problem of generalizing Sturmian words to trees. The problem is to evenly distribute labels 0 and 1 over infinite trees. We show that (strongly) balanced trees exist and can also be constructed using a mechanical process as long as the tree is irrational. Such trees also have a minimal factor complexity. Therefore they bring the hope that extremal scheduling properties of Sturmian words can be extended to such trees, as least partially. Such possible extensions are illustrated by one such example.

cs.DM↗