arXiv subjects

Nicolas Privault

Publications and source records attributed to Nicolas Privault.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Wasserstein distance estimates for jump-diffusion processes

We derive Wasserstein distance bounds between the probability distributions of a stochastic integral (Itô) process with jumps $(X_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$ and a jump-diffusion process $(X^\ast_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$. Our bounds are expressed using the stochastic characteristics of $(X_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$ and the jump-diffusion coefficients of $(X^\ast_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$ evaluated in $X_t$, and apply in particular to the case of different jump characteristics. Our approach uses stochastic calculus arguments and $L^p$ integrability results for the flow of stochastic differential equations with jumps, without relying on the Stein equation.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Closed-form modeling of neuronal spike train statistics using multivariate Hawkes cumulants

We derive exact analytical expressions for the cumulants of any orders of neuronal membrane potentials driven by spike trains in a multivariate Hawkes process model with excitation and inhibition. Such expressions can be used for the prediction and sensitivity analysis of the statistical behavior of the model over time, and to estimate the probability densities of neuronal membrane potentials using Gram-Charlier expansions. Our results are shown to provide a better alternative to Monte Carlo estimates via stochastic simulations, and computer codes based on combinatorial recursions are included.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2022

A deep learning approach to the probabilistic numerical solution of path-dependent partial differential equations

Recent work on Path-Dependent Partial Differential Equations (PPDEs) has shown that PPDE solutions can be approximated by a probabilistic representation, implemented in the literature by the estimation of conditional expectations using regression. However, a limitation of this approach is to require the selection of a basis in a function space. In this paper, we overcome this limitation by the use of deep learning methods, and we show that this setting allows for the derivation of error bounds on the approximation of conditional expectations. Numerical examples based on a two-person zero-sum game, as well as on Asian and barrier option pricing, are presented. In comparison with other deep learning approaches, our algorithm appears to be more accurate, especially in large dimensions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Normal approximation of compound Hawkes functionals

We derive quantitative bounds in the Wasserstein distance for the approximation of stochastic integrals with respect to Hawkes processes by a normally distributed random variable. In the case of deterministic and non-negative integrands, our estimates involve only the third moment of integrand in addition to a variance term using a square norm of the integrand. As a consequence, we are able to observe a "third moment phenomenon" in which the vanishing of the first cumulant can lead to faster convergence rates. Our results are also applied to compound Hawkes processes, and improve on the current literature where estimates may not converge to zero in large time, or have been obtained only for specific kernels such as the exponential or Erlang kernels.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Numerical evaluation of ODE solutions by Monte Carlo enumeration of Butcher series

We present an algorithm for the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations by random enumeration of the Butcher trees used in the implementation of the Runge-Kutta method. Our Monte Carlo scheme allows for the direct numerical evaluation of an ODE solution at any given time within a certain interval, without iteration through multiple time steps. In particular, this approach does not involve a discretization step size, and it does not require the truncation of Taylor series.

math.NA↗

arXiv2022

Stochastic ordering by g-expectations

We derive sufficient conditions for the convex and monotonic g-stochastic ordering of diffusion processes under nonlinear g-expectations and g-evaluations. Our approach relies on comparison results for forward-backward stochastic differential equations and on several extensions of convexity, monotonicity and continuous dependence properties for the solutions of associated semilinear parabolic partial differential equations. Applications to contingent claim price comparison under different hedging portfolio constraints are provided.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Asymptotic analysis of k-hop connectivity in the 1D unit disk random graph model

We propose an algorithm for the closed-form recursive computation of joint moments and cumulants of all orders for k-hop counts in the 1D unit disk random graph model with Poisson distributed vertices. Our approach uses decompositions of k-hop counts into multiple Poisson stochastic integrals. As a consequence, using the Stein method we derive Berry-Esseen bounds for the asymptotic convergence of renormalized k-hop path counts to the normal distribution as the density of Poisson vertices tends to infinity. Computer codes for the recursive symbolic computation of moments and cumulants are provided in appendix.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

An algorithm for the computation of joint Hawkes moments with exponential kernel

The purpose of this paper is to present a recursive algorithm and its implementation in Maple and Mathematica for the computation of joint moments and cumulants of Hawkes processes with exponential kernels. Numerical results and computation times are also discussed. Obtaining closed form expressions can be computationally intensive, as joint fifth cumulant and moment formulas can be respectively expanded into up to 3,288 and 27,116 summands.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

A constructive approach to existence of equilibria in time-inconsistent stochastic control problems

We extend the construction of equilibria for linear-quadratic and mean-variance portfolio problems available in the literature to a large class of mean-field time-inconsistent stochastic control problems in continuous time. Our approach relies on a time discretization of the control problem via n-person games, which are characterized via the maximum principle using Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs). The existence of equilibria is proved by applying weak convergence arguments to the solutions of n-person games. A numerical implementation is provided by approximating n-person games using finite Markov chains.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Existence and probabilistic representation of the solutions of semilinear parabolic PDEs with fractional Laplacians

We obtain existence results for the solution u of nonlocal semilinear parabolic PDEs on $\mathbb{R}^d$ with polynomial nonlinearities in $(u, \nabla u)$, using a tree-based probabilistic representation. This probabilistic representation applies to the solution of the equation itself, as well as to its partial derivatives by associating one of d marks to the initial tree branch. Partial derivatives are dealt with by integration by parts and subordination of Brownian motion. Numerical illustrations are provided in examples for the fractional Laplacian in dimension up to 10, and for the fractional Burgers equation in dimension two.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Connectivity of 1d random geometric graphs

A 1d random geometric graph (1d RGG) is built by joining a random sample of $n$ points from an interval of the real line with probability $p$. We count the number of $k$-hop paths between two vertices of the graph in the case where the space is the 1d interval $[0,1]$. We show how the $k$-hop path count between two vertices at Euclidean distance $|x-y|$ is in bijection with the volume enclosed by a uniformly random $d$-dimensional lattice path joining the corners of a $(k-1)$-dimensional hyperrectangular lattice. We are able to provide the probability generating function and distribution of this $k$-hop path count as a sum over lattice paths, incorporating the idea of restricted integer partitions with limited number of parts. We therefore demonstrate and describe an important link between spatial random graphs, and lattice path combinatorics, where the $d$-dimensional lattice paths correspond to spatial permutations of the geometric points on the line.

math.CO↗

arXiv2021

Surface measures and related functional inequalities on configuration spaces

Using finite difference operators, we define a notion of boundary and surface measure for configuration sets under Poisson measures. A Margulis-Russo type identity and a co-area formula are stated with applications to deviation inequalities and functional inequalities, and bounds are obtained on the associated isoperimetric constants.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Moments of Markovian growth-collapse processes

We apply general moment identities for Poisson stochastic integrals with random integrands to the computation of the moments of Markovian growth-collapse processes. This extends existing formulas for mean and variance available in the literature to closed form moments expressions of all orders. In comparison with other methods based on differential equations, our approach yields polynomial expressions in the time parameter. We also treat the case of the associated embedded chain.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Integrability and regularity of the flow of stochastic differential equations with jumps

We derive sufficient conditions for the differentiability of all orders for the flow of stochastic differential equations with jumps, and prove related $L^p$-integrability results for all orders. Our results extend similar results obtained in [Kun04] for first order differentiability and rely on the Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality for time inhomogeneous Poisson random measures on ${\Bbb R}_+\times {\Bbb R}$, for which we provide a new proof.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Recursive computation of the Hawkes cumulants

We propose a recursive method for the computation of the cumulants of self-exciting point processes of Hawkes type, based on standard combinatorial tools such as Bell polynomials. This closed-form approach is easier to implement on higher-order cumulants in comparison with existing methods based on differential equations, tree enumeration or martingale arguments. The results are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations, and also apply to the computation of joint cumulants generated by multidimensional self-exciting processes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Second order multi-object filtering with target interaction using determinantal point processes

The Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) filter, which is used for multi-target tracking based on sensor measurements, relies on the propagation of the first-order moment, or intensity function, of a point process. This algorithm assumes that targets behave independently, an hypothesis which may not hold in practice due to potential target interactions. In this paper, we construct a second-order PHD filter based on Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) which are able to model repulsion between targets. Such processes are characterized by their first and second-order moments, which allows the algorithm to propagate variance and covariance information in addition to first-order target count estimates. Our approach relies on posterior moment formulas for the estimation of a general hidden point process after a thinning operation and a superposition with a Poisson Point Process (PPP), and on suitable approximation formulas in the determinantal point process setting. The repulsive properties of determinantal point processes apply to the modeling of negative correlation between distinct measurement domains. Monte Carlo simulations with correlation estimates are provided.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Berry-Esseen bounds for functionals of independent random variables

We derive Berry-Esseen approximation bounds for general functionals of independent random variables, based on chaos expansions methods. Our results apply to $U$-statistics satisfying the weak assumption of decomposability in the Hoeffding sense, and yield Kolmogorov distance bounds instead of the Wasserstein bounds previously derived in the special case of degenerate $U$-statistics. Linear and quadratic functionals of arbitrary sequences of independent random variables are included as particular cases, with new fourth moment bounds, and applications are given to Hoeffding decompositions, weighted $U$-statistics, quadratic forms, and random subgraph weighing. In the case of quadratic forms, our results recover and improve the bounds available in the literature, and apply to matrices with non-empty diagonals.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Normal approximation for generalized U-statistics and weighted random graphs

We derive normal approximation bounds in the Wasserstein distance for sums of weighted U-statistics, based on a general distance bound for functionals of independent random variables of arbitrary distributions. Those bounds are applied to normal approximation for the combined weights of subgraphs in the Erdős-Rényi random graph, extending the graph counting results of [1] to the setting of graph weighting. Our approach relies on a general stochastic analytic framework for functionals of independent random sequences.

math.PR↗