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Nicole Bäuerle

Publications and source records attributed to Nicole Bäuerle.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Distributionally Robust Markov Decision Processes and their Connection to Risk Measures

We consider robust Markov Decision Processes with Borel state and action spaces, unbounded cost and finite time horizon. Our formulation leads to a Stackelberg game against nature. Under integrability, continuity and compactness assumptions we derive a robust cost iteration for a fixed policy of the decision maker and a value iteration for the robust optimization problem. Moreover, we show the existence of deterministic optimal policies for both players. This is in contrast to classical zero-sum games. In case the state space is the real line we show under some convexity assumptions that the interchange of supremum and infimum is possible with the help of Sion's minimax Theorem. Further, we consider the problem with special ambiguity sets. In particular we are able to derive some cases where the robust optimization problem coincides with the minimization of a coherent risk measure. In the final section we discuss two applications: A robust LQ problem and a robust problem for managing regenerative energy.

math.OC↗

Risk Management with Tail Quasi-Linear Means

We generalize Quasi-Linear Means by restricting to the tail of the risk distribution and show that this can be a useful quantity in risk management since it comprises in its general form the Value at Risk, the Tail Value at Risk and the Entropic Risk Measure in a unified way. We then investigate the fundamental properties of the proposed measure and show its unique features and implications in the risk measurement process. Furthermore, we derive formulas for truncated elliptical models of losses and provide formulas for selected members of such models.

q-fin.RM↗

Robust Optimal Investment and Reinsurance Problems with Learning

In this paper we consider an optimal investment and reinsurance problem with partially unknown model parameters which are allowed to be learned. The model includes multiple business lines and dependence between them. The aim is to maximize the expected exponential utility of terminal wealth which is shown to imply a robust approach. We can solve this problem using a generalized HJB equation where derivatives are replaced by generalized Clarke gradients. The optimal investment strategy can be determined explicitly and the optimal reinsurance strategy is given in terms of the solution of an equation. Since this equation is hard to solve, we derive bounds for the optimal reinsurance strategy via comparison arguments.

math.OC↗

Consistent upper price bounds for exotic options given a finite number of call prices and their convergence

We consider the problem of finding a consistent upper price bound for exotic options whose payoff depends on the stock price at two different predetermined time points (e.g. Asian option), given a finite number of observed call prices for these maturities. A model-free approach is used, only taking into account that the (discounted) stock price process is a martingale under the no-arbitrage condition. In case the payoff is directionally convex we obtain the worst case marginal pricing measures. The speed of convergence of the upper price bound is determined when the number of observed stock prices increases. We illustrate our findings with some numerical computations.

q-fin.MF↗

Markov Decision Processes under Ambiguity

We consider statistical Markov Decision Processes where the decision maker is risk averse against model ambiguity. The latter is given by an unknown parameter which influences the transition law and the cost functions. Risk aversion is either measured by the entropic risk measure or by the Average Value at Risk. We show how to solve these kind of problems using a general minimax theorem. Under some continuity and compactness assumptions we prove the existence of an optimal (deterministic) policy and discuss its computation. We illustrate our results using an example from statistical decision theory.

math.OC↗

Portfolio Optimization in Fractional and Rough Heston Models

We consider a fractional version of the Heston volatility model which is inspired by [16]. Within this model we treat portfolio optimization problems for power utility functions. Using a suitable representation of the fractional part, followed by a reasonable approximation we show that it is possible to cast the problem into the classical stochastic control framework. This approach is generic for fractional processes. We derive explicit solutions and obtain as a by-product the Laplace transform of the integrated volatility. In order to get rid of some undesirable features we introduce a new model for the rough path scenario which is based on the Marchaud fractional derivative. We provide a numerical study to underline our results.

q-fin.PM↗

Martingale Optimal Transport in the Discrete Case Via Simple Linear Programming Techniques

We consider the problem of finding consistent upper price bounds and super replication strategies for exotic options, given the observation of call prices in the market. This field of research is called model-independent finance and has been introduced by Hobson 1998. Here we use the link to mass transport problems. In contrast to existing literature we assume that the marginal distributions at the two time points we consider are discrete probability distributions. This has the advantage that the optimization problems reduce to linear programs and can be solved rather easily when assuming a general martingale Spence Mirrlees condition. We will prove the optimality of left-monotone transport plans under this assumption and provide an algorithm for its construction. Our proofs are simple and do not require much knowledge of probability theory. At the end we present an example to illustrate our approach.

math.OC↗

Optimal Control of Partially Observable Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes

In this paper we consider a control problem for a Partially Observable Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process of the following type: After the jump of the process the controller receives a noisy signal about the state and the aim is to control the process continuously in time in such a way that the expected discounted cost of the system is minimized. We solve this optimization problem by reducing it to a discrete-time Markov Decision Process. This includes the derivation of a filter for the unobservable state. Imposing sufficient continuity and compactness assumptions we are able to prove the existence of optimal policies and show that the value function satisfies a fixed point equation. A generic application is given to illustrate the results.

math.OC↗

Optimal Risk Allocation in Reinsurance Networks

In this paper we consider reinsurance or risk sharing from a macroeconomic point of view. Our aim is to find socially optimal reinsurance treaties. In our setting we assume that there are $n$ insurance companies each bearing a certain risk and one representative reinsurer. The optimization problem is to minimize the sum of all capital requirements of the insurers where we assume that all insurance companies use a form of Range-Value-at-Risk. We show that in case all insurers use Value-at-Risk and the reinsurer's premium principle satisfies monotonicity, then layer reinsurance treaties are socially optimal. For this result we do not need any dependence structure between the risks. In the general setting with Range-Value-at-Risk we obtain again the optimality of layer reinsurance treaties under further assumptions, in particular under the assumption that the individual risks are positively dependent through the stochastic ordering. At the end, we discuss the difference between socially optimal reinsurance treaties and individually optimal ones by looking at a number of special cases.

q-fin.RM↗

Extremal Behavior of Long-Term Investors with Power Utility

We consider a Bayesian financial market with one bond and one stock where the aim is to maximize the expected power utility from terminal wealth. The solution of this problem is known, however there are some conjectures in the literature about the long-term behavior of the optimal strategy. In this paper we prove now that for positive coefficient in the power utility the long-term investor is very optimistic and behaves as if the best drift has been realized. In case the coefficient in the power utility is negative the long-term investor is very pessimistic and behaves as if the worst drift has been realized.

q-fin.PM↗

Partially Observable Risk-Sensitive Stopping Problems in Discrete Time

In this paper we consider stopping problems with partial observation under a general risk-sensitive optimization criterion for problems with finite and infinite time horizon. Our aim is to maximize the certainty equivalent of the stopping reward. We develop a general theory and discuss the Bayesian risk-sensitive house selling problem as a special example. In particular we are able to study the influence of the attitude towards risk of the decision maker on the optimal stopping rule.

math.OC↗

Optimal Dividend Payout Model with Risk Sensitive Preferences

We consider a discrete-time dividend payout problem with risk sensitive shareholders. It is assumed that they are equipped with a risk aversion coefficient and construct their discounted payoff with the help of the exponential premium principle. This leads to a non-expected recursive utility of the dividends. Within such a framework not only the expected value of the dividends is taken into account but also their variability. Our approach is motivated by a remark in Gerber and Shiu (2004). We deal with the finite and infinite time horizon problems and prove that, even in general setting, the optimal dividend policy is a band policy. We also show that the policy improvement algorithm can be used to obtain the optimal policy and the corresponding value function. Next, an explicit example is provided, in which the optimal policy of a barrier type is shown to exist. Finally, we present some numerical studies and discuss the influence of the risk sensitive parameter on the optimal dividend policy.

math.PR↗

Partially Observable Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes

We consider the problem of minimizing a certainty equivalent of the total or discounted cost over a finite and an infinite time horizon which is generated by a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). The certainty equivalent is defined by $U^{-1}(EU(Y))$ where $U$ is an increasing function. In contrast to a risk-neutral decision maker this optimization criterion takes the variability of the cost into account. It contains as a special case the classical risk-sensitive optimization criterion with an exponential utility. We show that this optimization problem can be solved by embedding the problem into a completely observable Markov Decision Process with extended state space and give conditions under which an optimal policy exists. The state space has to be extended by the joint conditional distribution of current unobserved state and accumulated cost. In case of an exponential utility, the problem simplifies considerably and we rediscover what in previous literature has been named information state. However, since we do not use any change of measure techniques here, our approach is simpler. A small numerical example, namely the classical repeated casino game with unknown success probability is considered to illustrate the influence of the certainty equivalent and its parameters.

math.PR↗

Risk-Sensitive Stopping Problems for Continuous-Time Markov Chains

In this paper we consider stopping problems for continuous-time Markov chains under a general risk-sensitive optimization criterion for problems with finite and infinite time horizon. More precisely our aim is to maximize the certainty equivalent of the stopping reward minus cost over the time horizon. We derive optimality equations for the value functions and prove the existence of optimal stopping times. The exponential utility is treated as a special case. In contrast to risk-neutral stopping problems it may be optimal to stop between jumps of the Markov chain. We briefly discuss the influence of the risk sensitivity on the optimal stopping time and consider a special house selling problem as an example.

math.PR↗

Zero-sum Risk-Sensitive Stochastic Games

In this paper we consider two-person zero-sum risk-sensitive stochastic dynamic games with Borel state and action spaces and bounded reward. The term risk-sensitive refers to the fact that instead of the usual risk neutral optimization criterion we consider the exponential certainty equivalent. The discounted reward case on a finite and an infinite time horizon is considered, as well as the ergodic reward case. Under continuity and compactness conditions we prove that the value of the game exists and solves the Shapley equation and we show the existence of optimal (non-stationary) strategies. In the ergodic reward case we work with a local minorization property and a Lyapunov condition and show that the value of the game solves the Poisson equation. Moreover, we prove the existence of optimal stationary strategies. A simple example highlights the influence of the risk-sensitivity parameter. Our results generalize findings in Basu/Ghosh 2014 and answer an open question posed there.

math.OC↗

Stochastic Optimal Growth Model with Risk Sensitive Preferences

This paper studies a one-sector optimal growth model with i.i.d. productivity shocks that are allowed to be unbounded. The utility function is assumed to be non-negative and unbounded from above. The novel feature in our framework is that the agent has risk sensitive preferences in the sense of Hansen and Sargent (1995). Under mild assumptions imposed on the productivity and utility functions we prove that the maximal discounted non-expected utility in the infinite time horizon satisfies the optimality equation and the agent possesses a stationary optimal policy. A new point used in our analysis is an inequality for the so-called associated random variables. We also establish the Euler equation that incorporates the solution to the optimality equation.

econ.GN↗

Exact and Approximate Hidden Markov Chain Filters Based on Discrete Observations

We consider a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) where the integrated continuous-time Markov chain can be observed at discrete time points perturbed by a Brownian motion. The aim is to derive a filter for the underlying continuous-time Markov chain. The recursion formula for the discrete-time filter is easy to derive, however involves densities which are very hard to obtain. In this paper we derive exact formulas for the necessary densities in the case the state space of the HMM consists of two elements only. This is done by relating the underlying integrated continuous-time Markov chain to the so-called asymmetric telegraph process and by using recent results on this process. In case the state space consists of more than two elements we present three different ways to approximate the densities for the filter. The first approach is based on the continuous filter problem. The second approach is to derive a PDE for the densities and solve it numerically and the third approach is a crude discrete time approximation of the Markov chain. All three approaches are compared in a numerical study.

math.PR↗

Gas Storage valuation with regime switching

In this paper we treat a gas storage valuation problem as a Markov Decision Process. As opposed to existing literature we model the gas price process as a regime-switching model. Such a model has shown to fit market data quite well in Chen and Forsyth (2010). Before we apply a numerical algorithm to solve the problem, we first identify the structure of the optimal injection and withdraw policy. This part extends results in Secomandi (2010). Knowing the structure reduces the complexity of the involved recursion in the algorithms by one variable. We explain the usage and implementation of two algorithms: A Multinomial-Tree Algorithm and a Least-Square Monte Carlo Algorithm. Both algorithms are shown to work for the regime-switching extension. In a numerical study we compare these two algorithms.

q-fin.PR↗