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Nicole Ma

Publications and source records attributed to Nicole Ma.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Where's the Plan? Locating Latent Planning in Language Models with Lightweight Mechanistic Interventions

We study planning site formation in language models -- where internal representations of structurally-constrained future tokens form during the forward pass, and whether they causally drive generation. Using rhyming-couplet completion as a clean test of forward-looking constraint, we apply two lightweight methods (linear probing and activation patching) across Qwen3, Gemma-3, and Llama-3 at more than ten scales. Probing shows that future-rhyme information is linearly decodable at the line boundary, with signal that strengthens with scale in all three families. Activation patching reveals that only Gemma-3-27B causally relies on this encoding, exhibiting a handoff in which the causal driver migrates from the rhyme word to the line boundary around layer 30. Every other model we test conditions on the rhyme word throughout generation, with near-zero causal effect at the line boundary despite strong probe signal. We localize the Gemma-3-27B handoff to five attention heads through two-stage path patching that recover ~90% of the rhyme-routing capacity at the newline.

cs.LG

21st Century Global and Regional Surface Temperature Projections

Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface temperature trends in three target latitudinal regions: the Arctic Circle, the Tropics, and the Antarctic Circle. We show that global warming is accelerating unevenly across the planet, with the Arctic warming at approximately three times the average rate of our world. We further analyzed the reliability of latitude-dependent surface temperature simulations from a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models and their multi-model mean. We found that GISS-E2-1-G and FGOALS-g3 were the best-performing models based on their statistical abilities to reproduce observational, latitude-dependent data. Surface temperatures were projected from ensemble simulations of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5). We estimate when the climate will warm by 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 degrees C relative to the preindustrial period, globally and regionally. GISS-E2-1-G projects that global surface temperature anomalies would reach 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 degrees C in 2024 (+/-1.34), 2039 (+/-2.83), and 2057 (+/-5.03) respectively, while FGOALS-g3 predicts these "tipping points" would arrive in 2024 (+/-2.50), 2054 (+/-7.90), and 2087 (+/-10.55) respectively. Our results reaffirm a dramatic, upward trend in projected climate warming acceleration, with upward concavity in 21st century projections of the Arctic, which could lead to catastrophic consequences across the Earth. Further studies are necessary to determine the most efficient solutions to reduce global warming acceleration and maintain a low SSP, both globally and regionally.

physics.ao-ph