arXiv subjects

Niels van Oort

Publications and source records attributed to Niels van Oort.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond the Main Mode: The contribution of access and egress trips in door-to-door travel

Access and egress trips constitute a substantial part of a train trip in minds of travellers, often being the deciding factor whether to travel by train at all. Despite a host of studies analysing individual legs within a multimodal trip chain, the full chain within a multimodal trip - including access, main and egress - has seen very limited attention. To understand the importance of all these choices, we use travel diaries from the Dutch Mobility Panel to estimate a nested logit discrete choice model. Our results suggest that as a main mode, train and bus/tram/metro (BTM) seem to be associated with an inherent disutility compared to walking, cycling or car. The in-vehicle time in train and BTM, however, seems to be perceived significantly less negatively (60% lower) than in private modes, making them comparatively more attractive for longer journeys. These results imply that, given the strong preference for walking for both access and egress, train stations should be sufficiently dense to allow most people to walk to a station. This, however, should not come at the expense of additional transfers, as they inflict substantial disutility. Operators need to find a balance between accessibility and directness. Given the strong dispreference of travelling by car to dense urban areas, these trips should be the primary target of policymakers and operators for attracting additional travellers to take the train. Future studies could further enhance our understanding of multimodal trips by including additional attributes in the data, account for respondent heterogeneity and study how individuals build their consideration set when making multimodal trips.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Multi-period line planning for varying railway passenger demand with asymmetric lines

A line plan is an important aspect of the quality of the service provided to railway passengers. Although it is well-known that railway demand is varying throughout the day in volume and structure, the line plan is often still fixed throughout the day. To better match this varying railway demand, we propose a mixed-integer linear programming model for multi-period line planning. This model for railway networks incorporates selection of routes, stopping patterns, frequencies, transfers, and the possibility of asymmetric lines to deal with spatially unbalanced demand. The Epsilon-constraint method is used to determine Pareto optimal solutions. The proposed model and solution method are tested on a case study of part of the Dutch railway network. The results show that allowing for changes to the line plan during the day can reduce the total generalised journey time by up to 4.26%, especially when asymmetric lines are used.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Drivers and barriers to integrating shared micromobility with public transport: a latent class clustering analysis of adoption attitudes in the Netherlands

Shared micromobility (SMM), including bicycles, e-bikes, scooters, etc., is often cited as a solution to the first and especially the last mile problem of public transport (PT), yet when implemented, they often do not get adopted by a broader travelling public. As behavioural adaption is largely related to peoples' attitudes and perceptions, we develop a behavioural framework based on the UTAUT2 framework to gain better understanding why individuals may (not) be willing to use SMM. Through an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and a latent class cluster analysis (LCCA), we study the adoption potential of SMM and assess drivers and barriers as perceived by different user groups. Our findings uncover six user groups; Shared mobility positives, Car-oriented sharing neutrals, Older apprehensive sharers, Young eager adopters, (Shared) Mobility avoiders and Skilled sharing sceptics. The Young eager adopters and Shared mobility positives tend to be the most open to adopting SMM and able to do so. Older apprehensive sharers would like to, but find it difficult or dangerous to use, while Skilled sharing sceptics are capable and confident, but have limited intention of using it. Car-oriented sharing neutrals and (Shared) Mobility avoiders are most negative about SMM, finding it difficult to use and dangerous. Factors relating to technological savviness, ease-of-use, physical safety and societal perception seem to be the strongest adoption predictors. Younger, high-educated males are the group most likely and open to using SMM, while older individuals with lower incomes and a lower level of education tend to be the least likely.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

How do activity-end trip characteristics affect the choice for shared micromobility? A latent class choice modelling approach for train station egress trips in the Netherlands

Access/egress travel to train stations continues to pose a significant barrier to increasing the number of train travellers. Shared micromobility (SMM), including bicycles, e-bikes, steps and mopeds, is often cited as a prominent solution, especially for the activity-end of the trip chain. Using a stated preference survey, we analyse activity-end mode-choice preferences for SMM, walking and public transport (PT) among the Dutch population. By means of a latent class choice model, we uncover three user groups with respect to activity-end mode choice behaviour. The largest (58%) are Multimodal sharing enthusiast, who choose based on the trade-offs between various travel characteristics, while not having strong modal preferences. They are the most open, ready and able to use SMM. Sharing hesitant cyclists (16%) have a strong preference for cycling and while they are open to using SMM , they may not feel themselves ready, stating that use of SMM can be difficult and dangerous. Sharing-averse PT users (27%) are most likely to use PT and avoid SMM as they find it too difficult and dangerous to use. The high preference to walk for short egress distances reaffirms the need for transit-oriented development policies. For longer egress distances, PT should be the primary focus at stations in high-density areas with high demand, where high frequencies and dense networks are justified, while stations in lower demand areas are better served by SMM. Providing multiple SMM options would result mainly in competition for the same travellers.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

An instance-based learning approach for evaluating the perception of ride-hailing waiting time variability

Understanding user's perception of service variability is essential to discern their overall perception of any type of (transport) service. We study the perception of waiting time variability for ride-hailing services. We carried out a stated preference survey in August 2021, yielding 936 valid responses. The respondents were faced with static pre-trip information on the expected waiting time, followed by the actually experienced waiting time for their selected alternative. We analyse this data by means of an instance-based learning (IBL) approach to evaluate how individuals respond to service performance variation and how this impacts their future decisions. Different novel specifications of memory fading, captured by the IBL approach, are tested to uncover which describes the user behaviour best. Additionally, existing and new specification of inertia (habit) are tested. Our model outcomes reveal that the perception of unexpected waiting time is within the expected range of 2-3 times the value-of-time. Travellers seem to place a higher reward on an early departure compared to a penalty for a late departure of equal magnitude. A cancelled service, after having made a booking, results in significant disutility for the passenger and a strong motivation to shift to a different provider. Considering memory decay, our results show that the most recent experience is by far the most relevant for the next decision, with memories fading quickly in importance. The role of inertia seems to gain importance with each additional consecutive choice for the same option, but then resetting back to zero following a shift in behaviour.

physics.soc-ph↗